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« on: February 06, 2019, 10:49:43 AM » |
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The US on current trends will enter natural decrease itself by around 2030 on current trends although immigration will keep up population growth for a while. One of the most important changes in the long term strategic competition between America and China is one of the long term advantages that America enjoyed over China in the 2000's, namely higher fertility is gone. In 2007, the US TFR was around 2.1 vs 1.5 for China, 40% higher, Chinese TFR in 2018 was around 1.55 while US TFR looks like it fell to 1.72, a 10% advantage.
The fact that the American fertility advantage has gone from 40% in the 2000's to 10% today seems to be ignored by the so called analysts who can't stop talking about how America has a demographic advantage over China. In terms of natural population growth, America is closer to hitting negative growth then China is.
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