Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019

[Diouf]

Centre Party prefers current coalition to continue. However, Pro Patria might find it to awkward to continue the centre-left cooperation:

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https://news.err.ee/908098/simson-coalition-with-sde-pro-patria-first-choice-of-centre-party

[Diouf]

The Interior Ministry has calculated the new distribution of seats between multi-member constituencies. 958,571 persons are eligible to vote.

valimisringkond nr 1 (Tallinna Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn ja Kristiine) – 10 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 2 (Tallinna Kesklinna, Lasnamäe ja Pirita) – 13 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 3 (Tallinna Mustamäe ja Nõmme) – 8 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 4 (Harju- ja Raplamaa) – 15 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 5 ( Hiiu-, Lääne- ja Saaremaa) – 6 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 6 (Lääne-Virumaa) – 5 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 7 (Ida-Virumaa) – 7 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 8 (Järva- ja Viljandimaa) – 7 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 9 (Jõgeva- ja Tartumaa) – 7 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 10 (Tartu linn) – 8 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 11 (Võru-, Valga- ja Põlvamaa) – 8 mandaati;
valimisringkond nr 12 (Pärnumaa) – 7 mandaati.

Two of the Tallinn constituencies (1 & 2) as well as the constituency surrounding Talinn (4) all gain a seat while the constituency 9 (around Tartu), 11 (South-East) and 12 (Pärnu) all lose a seat.

[Diouf]

Leading party by constituency, although several of them are very tight. The Centre Party is ahead in the three Tallinn constituencies and Ida-Virumaa. Reform party leads in Tartu and the 4 Central constituencies. Reform and EKRE tied in the constituency surrounding Tartu, and EKRE ahead in the South-East and the Western islands constituency.

[Diouf]

There is speculation about a coalition between Centre and Reform after the election.
Reform PM candidate Kaja Kallas says that there that are "three big issues. The rest of the topics can be negotiated. But in matters of principle, we won't compromise,". Kallas also repeats that EKRE is the only party, she will not negotiate with.
The three big issues are taxation, citizenship and language in schools.
The Reform Party is opposed to the progressive taxation elements introduced by the current government. The Reform Party wants to keep the current citizenship system, while Centre wants to open up for some forms of expedited naturalisation, especially in the case of people of families who have resided in Estonia for an extended amount of time. Where the Centre Party is leaning towards keeping up Estonia's Russian schools, the Reform Party wants an entirely Estonian-based education system, starting as early as nursery school.

https://news.err.ee/914570/kallas-tax-citizenship-schools-main-obstacles-to-centre-reform-coalition

[Diouf]

ERR editor Dario Cavegn predict a Centre-Reform coalition.

This editor's prediction is now what it was two years ago: that we are inevitably gravitating towards a coalition of the Centre Party and the Reform Party.

A deal between political dinosaurs Edgar Savisaar (Centre) and Siim Kallas (Reform) might have made the latter president in 2016, but failed against opposition in both parties: enough of the old guard, not another round of that ever-same late-1990s stand-off.

But this failed attempt at consolidation was followed by Centre's swiftly getting rid of Savisaar, replacing him with Jüri Ratas, which catapulted it into the political limelight and made Mr Ratas prime minister within just a short time.

Now, in early 2019, one may well think the two parties could actually help each other, whether they like it or not: Centre, still disorganised and not quite done yet with its own housekeeping, could do with an experienced partner.

In turn, there seem to be plenty of people in the Reform Party who would welcome the opportunity to do things slightly differently, ie without the 1990s neoconservative dogma of Isamaa's tax and social policy hanging over their heads. In this sense, going into government together, though unthinkable until just a short time ago, would give both parties room to breathe and develop.

Another detail is that while Reform could have made Centre's frozen agreement with United Russia an issue again, it didn't. In fact, the matter hardly surfaced, even in the final phase of the campaign. This may be a sign that Reform regarding a potential coalition is at least keeping its options open.

A Centre-Reform government could be both interdependent and sober enough to tackle Estonia's current issues, from tax policy to healthcare to business and infrastructure and transport. In a nutshell, it is this combination that would have both the political potential as well as the real-life power in parliament to redefine Estonia's course—while in any other combination, the muddling-through would likely continue.

https://news.err.ee/916096/editor-s-prediction-centre-to-win-form-next-government-with-reform-party

[Diouf]

E-vote results should be the first to come. They looked like this in 2015:

Reform Party 37,5% (2015 election overall: 27,7%)
Pro Patria and Res Publica (IRL) 17,2% (13,7%)
Social Democratic Party (SDE) 16,9% (15,2%)
Free Party 12% (8,7%)
Centre Party 7,7% (24,8%)
Conservative People’s Party (EKRE) 6,9% (8,1%)

Polls should close now, right? But the watch at ERR seems to count down with an additional hour?

[Diouf]

Apparently Reform leading candidate Kaja Kallas just did a 180 on whether Center is their preferred coalition partner. Kallas now says they're not.

Did they state that it would be their preferred partner beforehand? I just saw her ruling out EKRE as a coalition partner. Which basically leaves Centre, or a return to SDE+Isamaa if E200 does not come in. Would not be particularly clever if they ruled out one of them as well.

[Diouf]

First results have come in. https://rk2019.valimised.ee/et/election-result/election-result.html

It seems this is the E-votes. As expected massive support for Reform party here. But they are on 40.0%, higher than in the e-vote in 2015.

[Diouf]

Not a lot of election day polling places counted in Tallinn yet, so Centre Party should get a decent boost from there.

[Diouf]

Nothing election day counted in Tartu yet. Normally a Reform stronghold, so even though their e-vote share is very high, they should also gain a good bit of election day votes from there. Also should get a fair few from the Constituency around Tallinn.

Also around 50 polling places left to count election day votes in Talinn, so plenty of Centre votes there.

[Diouf]

Every interview by Anna Pihl at the Isamaa party reminds me of the famous Danish TV cop

[Diouf]

Comparing to 2015 number of votes:

10 639 votes left in Tallinn 1
28 878 votes left in Talinn 2
13 926 votes left in Tallinn 3

So around 53.443 votes left. And Centre gets what, half of them?

[Diouf]

For the other constituencies, compared to 2015

Around Tallinn 10 336 votes
Western Islands 4 083 votes
Lääne-Viru 1 258 votes
North East 8 305 votes
Järva- and Viljandimaa 3 621 votes
Around Tartu 3 600 votes
Tartu 24 176 votes
South-East 7 342 votes
South-West 84 votes

[Diouf]

I can't see election results at polling place level, but unless turnout is way down, more than 8 000 votes lleft in North-East, so perhaps Narva or somewhere like that, where I guess Centre will get 75-80% of election day vote?

[Diouf]

Tartu and Tallinn surroundings should count the other way for the Centre Party, and still plenty left in the former in particular, so yeah it's not certain the 2015 result can be reached

[Diouf]

I can't see election results at polling place level, but unless turnout is way down, more than 8 000 votes lleft in North-East, so perhaps Narva or somewhere like that, where I guess Centre will get 75-80% of election day vote?

3 out of 36 polling stations left there... but turnout was only 48.2% there.

Now fully counted. Centre Party on 13 707, down massively from 20 328 votes in 2015. From 59.0% to 47.9% combined with a lower turnout. I have heard Narva a few times mentioned on the stream. I don't know if there are any specific issue, or maybe just being in government means Centre can't be as pro-Russian as wished?

[Diouf]

So it seems like a general pattern for the Centre Party. A bit to some progress in many places (as they become a more normal, respectable party for those with Estonia ethnicity), but losing some to many votes in their key areas in Tallinn and Ida-Viru among those with Russian ethnicity.

[Diouf]

Some of the SDE casualties, according to ERR."As things stand at present, both speaker of the Riigikogu Eiki Nestor, and culture minister Indrek Saar, both of SDE, will not be returned to parliament."

[Diouf]

Kristina Šmigun-Vähi, the first Estonian woman to win a medal at the Winter Olympics with two golds in cross-country skiing, will likely enter parliament for the Reform Party

[Diouf]

Centre rejects Reform's offer to begin coalition talks

"The board of the Centre Party, which was the first runner-up in the 2019 Riigikogu election and received an invitation on Wednesday from the election-winning Reform Party, opted to turn down the offer.

Addressing the press following the board's meeting on Friday, Centre chairman and outgoing Prime Minister Jüri Ratas said that it was differences of opinion when it came to tax matters that ended up being the red line. Mr Ratas said that under such conditions, the Centre Party could not launch coalition talks with Reform.Kadri Simson added that the conditions set by the Reform Party were too ultimatum-like. "We received input that it would only be possible to enter talks [with them] only if the resulting government were to begin implementing the Reform Party's programme," she added. According to Jaanus Karilaid, Reform's planned tax reform would not allow for Centre's planned extraordinary pension hike."

Kallas: Reform to approach Isamaa, Social Democrats next

"Following the rejection of the Centre Party, the first runner-up in the 2019 Riigikogu election, of the election-winning Reform Party's invitation to launch coalition talks, the board of the Reform Party decided on Friday to approach the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Isamaa next.

"The board of our party decided to propose launching coalition talks with the Social Democrats and Isamaa," Ms Kallas said, addressing the press following the Reform Party board meeting on Friday afternoon. "Just as I told [Centre chairman] Jüri Ratas, this cooperation would be on equal terms between equal partners, and it is our good will to form a functioning government for Estonia that could solve the challenges facing Estonia and offer people a better future."

https://news.err.ee/918142/centre-rejects-reform-s-offer-to-begin-coalition-talks
https://news.err.ee/918169/kallas-reform-to-approach-isamaa-social-democrats-next

[Diouf]

Kantar Emor poll for Postimees suggests that Centre and Isamaa voters are not that happy with the proposed coalition with EKRE, particularly the Russian Centre voters.

Among all voters, Reform-Isamaa-SDE is on 30%, Reform-Centre on 29% and Centre-EKRE-Isamaa on 24%. EKRE voters of course massively support the latter, but the newspaper write that Centre and  Isamaa voters prefer the other option with them in without stipulating the exact shares.

Citizens of other nationalities clearly prefer a coalition between Center and Reform (44 percent), wile only 8 percent of non-Estonian-speakers support a Center-EKRE-Isamaa union. Centre falls from 23 to 19 %, and is down from 67% to 48.9% support among Russian-speakers. These voters mainly seem to go to SDE and Estonia 200. The latter is at 7.3% in this poll, i.e. above the threshold.

ERR report that Centre, EKRE and Isamaa have reached agreement on culture, sport and youth work in a potential coalition. I guess those are probably not the most controversial areas, but it shows progress and puts pressure on Reform.

https://news.postimees.ee/6545414/poll-voters-prefer-other-coalitions
https://news.err.ee/920493/centre-isamaa-ekre-reach-agreement-on-sports-culture-youth-work

[Diouf]

Toom: Centre vote on EKRE, Isamaa talks first that ran along ethnic lines

The Centre MEP Yana Toom says that the vote to start negotiations with EKRE and Isamaa in the party board was the first to run along ethic lines with the "Russian wing" being voted down.

"[EKRE] isn't a party I would want to be with in a coalition," Ms Toom said. "That's just how it is. I don't think that the voters would forgive me if I did." She added that if this comes up again in a board meeting, she will likely vote against such a coalition.

"Perhaps we've got a miracle in store and Helme and Seeder suddenly say that there won't be a changeover to 100% Estonian-speaking education, and that everyone with a grey passport will be made a citizen," she joked. "Then I'd tell myself, okay Toom, perhaps this is a deal with the devil, but at least we get a few things done we've been fighting for."

https://news.err.ee/920779/toom-centre-vote-on-ekre-isamaa-talks-first-that-ran-along-ethnic-lines

[Diouf]

Kaja Kallas says she's willing to give up PM spot to form coalition with the Centre Party. However, former Prime Minister and current EU Commissioner Andrus Ansip said that such a move would be illogical, and that the Reform party should instead be willing to compromise on their proposal to make €500 a month tax free for everyone. This was one of Kallas' ultimate demands, and one reason why the Centre Party left negotiations, but Ansip says that it's too expensive and an obvious place to give way.

https://news.err.ee/923938/kallas-would-consider-leaving-position-of-prime-minister-to-ratas
https://news.err.ee/923991/ansip-wouldn-t-offer-ratas-prime-minister-but-compromise-on-tax-instead