Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019

[Diouf]

For the other constituencies, compared to 2015

Around Tallinn 10 336 votes
Western Islands 4 083 votes
Lääne-Viru 1 258 votes
North East 8 305 votes
Järva- and Viljandimaa 3 621 votes
Around Tartu 3 600 votes
Tartu 24 176 votes
South-East 7 342 votes
South-West 84 votes

[DavidB.]

Comparing to 2015 number of votes:

10 639 votes left in Tallinn 1
28 878 votes left in Talinn 2
13 926 votes left in Tallinn 3

So around 53.443 votes left. And Centre gets what, half of them?

Tallinn 1 was 34% Center, 25% Reform in 2015.
43% Center, 22% Reform in Tallinn 2.
30% Reform, 24% Center in Tallinn 3.

But that includes early votes (not sure if it includes internet votes though), so yes, Center should still gain quite a lot. Maybe enough to get to their 2015 result, but I don't think so.

[Diouf]

I can't see election results at polling place level, but unless turnout is way down, more than 8 000 votes lleft in North-East, so perhaps Narva or somewhere like that, where I guess Centre will get 75-80% of election day vote?

[DavidB.]

Isamaa are doing pretty well, so most of the EKRE vote seems to come from the Free Party and... SDE?

[FredLindq]

I would say that the most interesting issue now is if the current centre left coalition EK+I+SDE gets a majority (51 seats). With 386 out off 451 districts counted they have 46.

[Diouf]

Tartu and Tallinn surroundings should count the other way for the Centre Party, and still plenty left in the former in particular, so yeah it's not certain the 2015 result can be reached

[DavidB.]

I can't see election results at polling place level, but unless turnout is way down, more than 8 000 votes lleft in North-East, so perhaps Narva or somewhere like that, where I guess Centre will get 75-80% of election day vote?

3 out of 36 polling stations left there... but turnout was only 48.2% there.

[DavidB.]

399/451

Reform 30%, Center 21.3%, EKRE 17.7%, Isamaa 11.6%, SDE 10.2%, E200 4.6%

[bigic]

405/451. Reform now below 30%. Although I think that Reform will be the only party that could lead a coalition, as it doesn't look that the current government coalition will retain the majority, and the only other option that Centre has is a grand coalition with Reform.

[DavidB.]

At this pace Center definitely aren't reaching their 24.8% from 2015. They're going up by 0.2% every five polling stations or so. With about 45 polling stations left they'd be around 23.5%.

[FredLindq]

Right now EKRE is up 9,6% and I down 2,1% and EVA (Estonian Free Party) down 7,5%....
So EKREs gains mainly comes from EVA and some parts from I.

SDE is down 5,0% and E200 gets 4,6%. So I would say that SDE lost their votes to E200.

[bigic]

It certainly isn't as simple as it seems, which is proved by many voter movement surveys.

[DavidB.]

The southeastern electoral district now flipped to EKRE-blue too. It was expected to the first district to go EKRE. But with a difference of four votes between EKRE and Reform and two polling stations left to be counted, this remains a nailbiter.

[Diouf]

I can't see election results at polling place level, but unless turnout is way down, more than 8 000 votes lleft in North-East, so perhaps Narva or somewhere like that, where I guess Centre will get 75-80% of election day vote?

3 out of 36 polling stations left there... but turnout was only 48.2% there.

Now fully counted. Centre Party on 13 707, down massively from 20 328 votes in 2015. From 59.0% to 47.9% combined with a lower turnout. I have heard Narva a few times mentioned on the stream. I don't know if there are any specific issue, or maybe just being in government means Centre can't be as pro-Russian as wished?

[bigic]

There is a pro-Russian "Estonian United Left Party" and they didn't profit at all, so most of the voters disappointed with Centre went into abstention.

[DavidB.]

Also worth noting that because of Center's underperformance (and SDE's loss, which is actually bigger), the current coalition will almost certainly lose its majority: they are at 47 now. Good for Reform's position in negotiations, as there is no plausible path to a coalition for Center that does not involve Reform now.

[DavidB.]

428/451

Reform 29.4%, Center 22.2%, EKRE 17.7%, Isamaa 11.5%, SDE 10%, E200 4.6%

14 of the outstanding precincts are in areas where Center can't be expected to do well and where Reform/EKRE will do well instead, so I think this is about it. Big win for Reform, who have just reiterated their unwillingness to negotiate with the other big winner, EKRE.

[Diouf]

So it seems like a general pattern for the Centre Party. A bit to some progress in many places (as they become a more normal, respectable party for those with Estonia ethnicity), but losing some to many votes in their key areas in Tallinn and Ida-Viru among those with Russian ethnicity.

[Diouf]

Some of the SDE casualties, according to ERR."As things stand at present, both speaker of the Riigikogu Eiki Nestor, and culture minister Indrek Saar, both of SDE, will not be returned to parliament."

[DavidB.]

Had to laugh at that person Nestor being the longest sitting MP. What's in a name?

[mgop]

either way prime minister will be from centre party, they can choose who they want for coalition

[bigic]

either way prime minister will be from centre Reform party, they can choose who they want for coalition

[mgop]

either way prime minister will be from centre Reform party, they can choose who they want for coalition

KESKERAKOND!

[DavidB.]

either way prime minister will be from centre Reform party, they can choose who they want for coalition

KESKERAKOND!

Center can't "choose who they want", because they don't have a majority with SDE and Isamaa.

[Diouf]

Kristina Šmigun-Vähi, the first Estonian woman to win a medal at the Winter Olympics with two golds in cross-country skiing, will likely enter parliament for the Reform Party