Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019

[DavidB.]

The southeastern electoral district now flipped to EKRE-blue too. It was expected to the first district to go EKRE. But with a difference of four votes between EKRE and Reform and two polling stations left to be counted, this remains a nailbiter.

[DavidB.]

Also worth noting that because of Center's underperformance (and SDE's loss, which is actually bigger), the current coalition will almost certainly lose its majority: they are at 47 now. Good for Reform's position in negotiations, as there is no plausible path to a coalition for Center that does not involve Reform now.

[DavidB.]

428/451

Reform 29.4%, Center 22.2%, EKRE 17.7%, Isamaa 11.5%, SDE 10%, E200 4.6%

14 of the outstanding precincts are in areas where Center can't be expected to do well and where Reform/EKRE will do well instead, so I think this is about it. Big win for Reform, who have just reiterated their unwillingness to negotiate with the other big winner, EKRE.

[DavidB.]

Had to laugh at that person Nestor being the longest sitting MP. What's in a name?

[DavidB.]

either way prime minister will be from centre Reform party, they can choose who they want for coalition

KESKERAKOND!

Center can't "choose who they want", because they don't have a majority with SDE and Isamaa.

[DavidB.]

With 435 precincts in, one seat has shifted from Reform to EKRE: Reform at 34, EKRE at 20 now.

[DavidB.]

Prime Minister Jüri Ratas (Center) says that his party will "do its utmost" to be part of the next coalition.

[DavidB.]

Remaining precincts:

6 in Tallinn
4 in the Reform stronghold outside Tallinn
2 in the part of the Southeast where EKRE are leading Reform by 4 votes
2 in Tartu City
1 in Tartu County
1 in the part of the Northeast where Center don't do well

[DavidB.]

Ratas has 2 options - a grand coalition with Reform (likely) or a coalition including EKRE (very unlikely, and probably excluded by Centre)

If Reform exclude EKRE, Center definitely would. EKRE's positions on Russian minority issues are Reform's positions but on steroids. I really think that if one of the two biggest parties would start considering governing with EKRE it would be Reform.

Ratas does have two options: a grand coalition with Reform or the opposition.

[DavidB.]

Three of Tallinn's precincts have come in and EKRE's 20th seat has now become Center's 26th, leaving them only one seat down from 2015 at 22.7%. Wonder whether Reform, EKRE or Center will ultimately get it. I think it will be Reform or EKRE given the outstanding precincts.

[DavidB.]

EKRE leader Mart Helme now talking about Center-EKRE-Isamaa, who would have a comfortable majority. Hard to see how that would not be suicide for both Center and EKRE. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact wasn't a success, guys... and you should know!

[DavidB.]

Everything is in.

Reform 28.8% (+1.1%) - 34 seats (+4)
Center 23% (-1.7%) - 26 seats (-1)
EKRE 17.8% (+9.7%) - 19 seats (+12)
Pro Patria 11.4% (-2.3%) - 12 seats (-2)
SDE 9.8% (-5.4%) - 10 seats (-5)

EE200 4.5% (new) - 0 seats
Greens 1.8% (+0.9%) - 0 seats
Richness of Life 1.2% (new)
Free Party 1.2% (-7.5%) 0 seats (-8 seats)
-

No center-left majority anymore, Reform (who seem to have a very effective vote distribution, gaining 4 seats with only +1.1%) hold the balance of power. Strong result for Reform, Isamaa and especially EKRE: good.

[DavidB.]

Ruuben Kaalep, the leader of EKRE's alt-right youth organization Blue Awakening which was expelled from the ECR youth organization, was elected in Tartu City with 566 votes. Another EKRE candidate, Indrek Särg, received 2,221 votes in the same district but was not elected due to his lower position on the EKRE list and is angry about this. Kaalep says he agrees but "seeks to change the electoral system from within parliament" and does not give up his seat.

[DavidB.]

EKRE and Isamaa have approved. Coalition talks will start.

[DavidB.]

The coalition agreement should be presented today and someone in EKRE will chair parliament. What an unlikely (yet great) outcome of the election this is.

[DavidB.]

Apparently Reform officially still get to attempt to form a coalition now, which is utterly pointless because Center, EKRE and Isamaa simply have a majority and Reform (therefore) won't get one.