Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019
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Author Topic: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019  (Read 7213 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #25 on: March 03, 2019, 01:38:47 PM »

First results have come in. https://rk2019.valimised.ee/et/election-result/election-result.html

It seems this is the E-votes. As expected massive support for Reform party here. But they are on 40.0%, higher than in the e-vote in 2015.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #26 on: March 03, 2019, 01:44:54 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2019, 02:08:46 PM by FredLindq »

Change in the e-vote compared with last Election
ER +2.5
EKRE +6.6
I -5.6
EK +4.0
SDE -5.5
E200 +5.5
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #27 on: March 03, 2019, 01:47:53 PM »

Good result for Kaja Kallas ...

Looks like she and Reform will win and become the new PM.
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bigic
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« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2019, 01:53:26 PM »

Kallas didn't say that Center is her preferred coalition partner. She only said that it's possible, with 3 points of disagreement that IIRC are her conditions for such a coalition - everything else being open to negotiation.
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PetrSokol
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« Reply #29 on: March 03, 2019, 01:57:56 PM »

On-line blog in English about elections on TV webpage

https://news.err.ee/916211/election-night-live-blog-follow-events-live-starting-19-55-eet-sunday
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FredLindq
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« Reply #30 on: March 03, 2019, 02:10:28 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2019, 02:22:58 PM by FredLindq »

I think that 5,5% for E200 is to little for the in order cross the 5-% threshold. I think that they Will get a smaller share in the election day votes.
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bigic
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« Reply #31 on: March 03, 2019, 02:11:35 PM »

My results of the ERR political compass:

Reform 71%
Richness of Life 68%
Estonia 200 66%
Social Democrats 64%
Centre 64%
Greens 60%
Pro Patria 55%
Free Party 54%
EKRE 48%

I took the test in Russian and translated the questions I didn't understand using Google Translate.

Political compass:


Left/right - economic left/right
Up - social liberalism
Bottom - social conservatism
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DavidB.
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« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2019, 02:11:54 PM »

Offline votes are coming in pretty quickly now. Reform down to 37.2%, EKRE up to 15.1% and Center to 13.4%.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2019, 02:20:56 PM »

Reform 36.8% - 43
EKRE 15.4% - 16
Center 13.7% - 14
Pro Patria 12.6% - 13
SDE 11.2% - 11
E200 5.2% - 4

Doesn't bode well for E200.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2019, 02:22:26 PM »

If the changes in the e-votes are the same as in the election day voting we could have a result like this.
ER 30% 33 seats
EK 29% 32
EKRE 15% 16
SDE 10% 11
I 8% 9

I still think that E200 will not make it.

So ER+EK 65 seats (grand liberal coalition) or
ER+SDE+I 53 seats (centre right coalition) or
EK+SDE+I 52 seats (current centreleft coalition)
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DavidB.
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« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2019, 02:29:35 PM »

Reform 35.4%, EKRE 15.9%, Center 15%, Isamaa 12.4%, SDE 11.1%, E200 5.1%. We're going to see E200 dip under the threshold pretty soon. Center will overtake EKRE as expected.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2019, 02:36:23 PM »

211 out off 451 districts counted
Reform 34,7% - 40
EKRE 16,2% - 17
Center 15,6% - 16
Pro Patria 12,4% - 13
SDE 11,1% - 11
E200 5,0% - 4
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DavidB.
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« Reply #37 on: March 03, 2019, 02:36:28 PM »

ERR.ee has preliminary results by district: https://news.err.ee/916323/updated-live-preliminary-results-by-party-district-mandates-candidates.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #38 on: March 03, 2019, 02:43:14 PM »

235 polling stations out of 451 in, and E200 now below the threshold. EKRE still performing strongly, going to do better than the 17% expected in the poll of polls. Isamaa doing pretty well too:

Reform 34.1%, EKRE 16.6%, Center 16%, Isamaa 12.4%, SDE 11%, E200 4.9%.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #39 on: March 03, 2019, 02:45:51 PM »

Center have now overtaken EKRE.

Turnout was 63.1% (-1.1%). Disappointing.
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Diouf
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« Reply #40 on: March 03, 2019, 02:48:02 PM »

Not a lot of election day polling places counted in Tallinn yet, so Centre Party should get a decent boost from there.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #41 on: March 03, 2019, 03:01:50 PM »

298 out off 451 districts counted
Reform 32,3% - 38
Center 17,9% - 20
EKRE17,3% - 19
Pro Patria 12,1% - 13
SDE 10,7% - 11
E200 4,9% - 0
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DavidB.
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« Reply #42 on: March 03, 2019, 03:09:46 PM »

329/451 in, Center now really starting to gain steam. EKRE not gaining as much anymore, so perhaps the 30 or so polling stations that just came in were from Tallinn.

Reform 31.5%, Center 19.2%, EKRE 17.4%, Isamaa 11.9%, SDE 10.5%, E200 4.8%
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Diouf
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« Reply #43 on: March 03, 2019, 03:17:17 PM »

Nothing election day counted in Tartu yet. Normally a Reform stronghold, so even though their e-vote share is very high, they should also gain a good bit of election day votes from there. Also should get a fair few from the Constituency around Tallinn.

Also around 50 polling places left to count election day votes in Talinn, so plenty of Centre votes there.
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Diouf
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« Reply #44 on: March 03, 2019, 03:20:40 PM »

Every interview by Anna Pihl at the Isamaa party reminds me of the famous Danish TV cop

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DavidB.
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« Reply #45 on: March 03, 2019, 03:21:43 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2019, 03:32:21 PM by DavidB. »

Still a lot of polling stations in Tallinn, but also to the Southwest of Tallinn where Reform and EKRE are doing very well. Thinking Center will end up in the low-mid 20s, Reform in the high 20s and EKRE around 18%.
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PetrSokol
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« Reply #46 on: March 03, 2019, 03:22:41 PM »

Doesnt it seem that Centre cant catch Reform. I counted about 400 k votes in and the last time it was 577 k. Now is the difference R vs. K 50 k....
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FredLindq
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« Reply #47 on: March 03, 2019, 03:25:50 PM »

363 out off 451 districts counted
Reform 30,7% - 36
Center 20,2% - 23
EKRE 17,5% - 19
Pro Patria 11,8% - 12
SDE 10,4% - 11
E200 4,7% - 0

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Diouf
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« Reply #48 on: March 03, 2019, 03:25:59 PM »

Comparing to 2015 number of votes:

10 639 votes left in Tallinn 1
28 878 votes left in Talinn 2
13 926 votes left in Tallinn 3

So around 53.443 votes left. And Centre gets what, half of them?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #49 on: March 03, 2019, 03:26:19 PM »

The southwest has flipped from Reform to EKRE.
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