New Zealand political discussion thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:20:27 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  New Zealand political discussion thread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: New Zealand political discussion thread  (Read 28717 times)
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« on: October 03, 2021, 11:39:51 PM »

The elimination strategy has not been successful against Delta, and has now been abandoned. Auckland's lockdown has now been 7 weeks, yet cases are now increasing slightly, so this lockdown will be the longest New Zealand has had. Now, the government is acknowledging that vaccines will have to replace lockdowns as the tool. However, this process will have to be a transition because not enough people are fully vaccinated (79% eligible first dosed, 48% second dosed). There is an ambitious informal target of 90% of the eligible population, but most likely we'll fall just short. Jacinda Ardern therefore announced a three step roadmap for easing restrictions-

1. From Wednesday, outdoor gatherings of groups of no more than 10 people from no more than 2 households will be allowed. Early childhood centres will reopen. Within the social distancing rules, there will be no restrictions on outdoor recreation in Auckland.
2. This step is not dated but will be assessed next week starting from 7 days time. Here, retail and public facilities will reopen and the outdoor gathering limit will be increased to 25.
3. Similarly, this is not dated. Hospitality and close contact businesses will reopen, with a 50 person limit.

Schools are also scheduled to return after school holidays on 18 October with health measures in place. After the three steps, Jacinda has said that vaccine certificates are likely for crowded indoor events and the details of this will be presented next week.

This is just for the largest city. A snap lockdown was imposed on parts of the Waikato region (unfortunately a detailed map of which areas were in lockdown was not available before the lockdown began and it's not been done in a very simple way) yesterday after 2 cases were discovered that are connected to the Auckland outbreak, which is expected to last for 5 days. The rest of New Zealand remains at level 2 of course, with minor social distancing and mask requirements, even areas that have not had any Covid cases in many months because mass gatherings are believed to be too risky with Delta still spreading anywhere in New Zealand. Otherwise though life is pretty normal for us. The worry is that going forward, our ICU capacity is shockingly weak (and somehow decreased in this pandemic), so we will have to be a bit more careful handling Delta even with high vaccination compared to other countries.
Singapore is at 83% fully vaccinated with universal mask-wearing and strict 2 person gathering and dine-in rules but cases still piked to ay 6lmost 2 thousand and we have normalized roughly 6 covid deaths per day.

We've also had to implement a home quarantine system for all asymptomatic cases who's initial bungled roll out led to a lot of problems and us having to clsoe stuff down even more. Good luck the first few weeks after the abdandoment of covid zero is going to be rough and scary.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2021, 07:06:37 PM »

What's wrong with keeping everyone in lockdown until herd immunity is reached through vaccination? Ardern has all the power here. F the economy, I care about human lives, dammit!
The vaccine doesn't work well enough with delta for that to be realstic, Look at singapore with an 85% total population vaccination rate.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2021, 01:28:28 AM »

I think this poll reinforces my impression of New Zealand labour being a fundamentally conservative party with good spin. Popular among the established populace as well as their disenchanted children by attractive rethoric regarding social spending, home prices and projecting empathy while  unwilling to make the fundamental reforms required for the country to thrive for everyone.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2021, 08:24:12 AM »

Rather like New Labour back in the day, then? Thing is, that gets found out eventually.

(though it may also be relevant that Ardern's party is still distinctly to the left of the 80s version)
I mean Arden Literary worked in the new labour government, which I find kiwi and Australian complaints about foreign intervention in their elections kinda hilarious.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96123508/jacinda-ardern-i-didnt-want-to-work-for-tony-blair
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2021, 11:35:15 PM »

I'm wondering if there will be any constituency for an Auckland localist party, given the disparity between it's lockdown and the rest of the country.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2021, 10:53:44 AM »

A new Colmar Brunton poll has an unsurprising result.
Labour-41% (- 2% on last poll, - 9% on 2020)
National-28% (+2%, +2%)
ACT-14% (_, +6%)
Green-9% (+1%, +1%)
Maori Party-1% (-1%, _)

Jacinda is on 39% as preferred Prime Minister (down 5%), with ACT leader David Seymour as the clear second place on 11%, and Judith Collins on just 5%. Collins' net approval rating is -31%.

In some surprising good news, the Waikato has left lockdown after 6 weeks, going to alert level 2. The government claims the cases there are now all linked and under control. Jacinda has also been signalling in recent days that the traffic light system might come into effect before the 90% double dose target is reached, perhaps when Auckland leaves lockdown on November 29. The government also announced that the booster dose program will start on the same date, and everyone in the 18+ age group who is six months or more from their second dose will be eligible.


These aren't good results for the left. Given that the national party is still in shambles it looks clear that the left parties are barely clinging onto a majority of seats. If Collins goes I think the National party has a real shot of winning the next election if they time the change of leadership just right with the new election.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2021, 10:58:34 AM »

The continuing lockdown has probably hit government popularity a bit. Plus the Nationals are hardly brimming with talent - Collins took over because there was basically no one else!
This might be speculative but I think the fact that the lockdown is so regional might mean its impacts are more long-lasting and greater. It's harder to feel a sense of solidarity when the entire country isn't being locked down and I do think that even if the lockdown eases Labour's results in Auckland next election will be ugly.

Collins has become so tainted that I think if she's replaced with a younger more urban candidate close enough to the election to avoid getting too tainted but far enough away to get name recognition, Nationals will spike a great deal.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2021, 01:13:21 AM »

I keep repeating this but these numbers should make labour worry, a change of leadership in the nationals could leave them very vunerable.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2021, 11:15:22 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2021, 11:18:27 AM by Secretary of State Liberal Hack »

Again, who is this as yet undiscovered person who is going to transform National's fortunes?

They've had a succession of rubbish leaders since Key for a reason.
Some Auckland Backbencher who speaks well and comes off as cosmopolitan ?.(preferably a minority). Surely there is someone in the party that fits the bill. Judith's problem is she comes of as alien towards the cities and too provincial.

There's a real possibility that National can increase their share of vote from immigrant communities if they perceive labour as dragging their foot on ending the MIQ's given the national visible support for ending it.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2021, 06:38:01 PM »

If the party get's desperate enough and one of them is ambitious enough, they might get elected as leader.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2021, 06:24:31 AM »

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/11/newshub-reid-research-poll-simon-bridges-isn-t-ruling-out-another-tilt-at-national-leadership-and-he-s-got-public-s-support.html

I think Simon Bridge might do better this time around than his last time he was leader.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2021, 08:02:32 PM »

Good, the party's base needs to suck up and elect a liberal urbanite if they want to win the next election.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2022, 12:30:17 PM »

Honeymoon finally over then.

Still it was good, really good, while it lasted.
In what way ?.
Arden had the political capital to truly change new Zealand and failed to do so. More tragic than anything else
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2022, 11:27:46 PM »

Why the hell would New Zealanders throw out Ardern? She had the second-best COVID response in the world after China's. Obviously other factors come into play, but she's great at PR (which she deserves, to be sure.) I'm pretty surprised that her poll numbers are going that far down.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2022, 05:54:26 AM »

With housing, it is one of those hopeless political situations because 60% of home owners don't want the value of their home to fall at all but 47% of New Zealanders think house prices should drop a lot and only 18% want no change.


It is a very tough and politically hard question to solve, and that why I I'm disappointed with Arden. She has the political majority to push through the necessary but unpopular policies required to fix the situation but won't do it.

This is not to say she hasn't made some progress such as her bipartisan zoning reform, but future coalition governments might lack the capability of doing what is necessary. Arden has had a chance to solve this issue but just won't make it due to the short-term consequences.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2022, 05:43:22 AM »

Wentworth is probably most similarly economically and culturally to an electorate like Wimbledon, professionals, wealthy people, socially liberal and elite. The likes of Islington in Australia still vote solidly for Labor; Granalyder, Sydney etc. Australia is probably more class polarised than England in urban metropolises, but voting patterns are largely the same.

The places comparable to Grayndler could be those London constituencies which had a big Green vote in 2015 (by some distance the Green Party's best general election in terms of votes). Holborn and St Pancreas springs to mind, not least because of whose seat it is.


Now that you mention him, Albanese's strategy is similar to Starmer's. Both have been talked down for their small target strategy, but one has a wide open path to victory with just weeks to go. If victory is won, then this should encourage Starmer that the big strategic calls he has been making as leader are sensible.

For New Zealand politics, I would be more encouraged by a Scott Morrison victory for Labour's 2023 odds. Both governments have taken serious blows over their vaccine rollouts and the global inflation surge. Jacinda Ardern could be able to survive what Morrison can't, because she has more personal popularity and there is less of a sense of this being a tired old government. However, no incumbent wants to have an election now and we will just be hoping that we are better off in 2023 than we are on either side of the ditch right now.
I don't know, Arden might be more personaly popular but the NZ electorate is more flexibile and prone to swings than the australian ones. And even a flawless government would be hard pressed to solve the main issue of housing prices driving much of the annoyance with her government.

The one bright side is that housing prices are now coming down and supply is increasing, but the 30% price increase during the pandemic is unlikely to be reversed completely, and home ownership was already out of reach for many young people before then. You have a valid point, but it would be even for us crazy to have a 24% lead wiped out in one election, and New Zealand does like to give each party 9 years in government.
I don't think it's too crazy, a lot of the 24% lead was going to dissipate anyway even in a labour favourable environment as it was from a one-time covid bump. Core national voters will return to the party, so in a way part of that swing will already be priced in.

And Labour is already polling neck-to-neck with the Nationals. Now the election is way off and not much stock should be put into any singular poll, but it's pretty clear that the covid-bump has pretty much completely dissipated.
Quote
NAT 40.5% (+9.2)

LAB 38.2% (-6.1)

GRN 8.4% (-1.2)

ACT 6.4% (-1.6)

MRI 2.5% (+0.5)




https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/newshub-reid-research-poll-labour-suffers-dramatic-fall-as-national-cracks-40-pct.html
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2022, 11:48:16 PM »

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.
Do you expect a result more in line with 2005?

Basically. Luxon also comes across as a bit of an idiot, though maybe not in a politically harmful way. It is still early in his leadership and people are focused on many other things instead of learning more about him, so Labour can always hope he underperforms in a campaign if it is not already decided either way.
I get the sense a lot would have to wrong for National for them to get a sub-35 seat count two elections in a row. The real question, generally speaking, is how much they rebound. Of course, 2023 is still more than a year away.
I think it's a bit unfair to blame them for the 2020 election perfomance, I don't think anyone could have beatedn Arden given her successful covid response in that election. That's why I think people shouldn't realy use the 2020 election as a baseline when thinking about swings.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2022, 07:11:53 PM »

Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.
There have been only 2 occasions since MMP has been introduced in New Zealand that an incumbent government that had lagged in a poll has been re-elected.
Ardern was likely always going to win, but National bombing as hard as they did was much less inevitable.
National was briefly leading in the polls pre-covid, before covid led to in-fighting and an internal party melt-down. Say what you want about Luxon but he's been able to sell the fact that his party is united and the kind of backroom backstabbing seems to have tempered down.

I think in many way 2020 election handed labour a poisoned chalice. They had an absolute majority so no longer had a partner to pivot blame towards, and they got a lot of votes from voters who's interests are opposed to that of a labour party which has led to them being reluctant to implement many core policies. At this point I would say that National are favoured to form the next Goverment.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 12 queries.