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Pericles
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« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2019, 06:48:22 PM »

This poll isn't great for Labour, and the trends are concerning. However, it does depend on what you compare the poll to. If you compare it to the last election, the results look more favourable for Labour.

National: 56_ 43.9%(-0.5%)
Labour: 54+8 41.6%(+4.7%)
Green: 8_ 6.3%(_)
ACT: 2+1 1.4%(+0.9%)
NZ First: 0-9 4.0%(-3.2%)
120 seats
61 for majority

And of course, as an actual election outcome a Labour-Greens coalition without NZ First would be a great result and cause a leftward shift in policy.

I think it's best to take a balanced approach and think about the trends between different polls as well as the trends from the last election. Labour getting 51% of the vote was a bit unrealistic of course, no party has ever won an outright majority under MMP. The upcoming election does look competitive, Labour does have weaknesses on areas like tax, and if the global economy does slow that would be very damaging to their election chances. However, Labour's position is not actually bad right now, and I think Jacinda is the favourite to win.

Also the NZ media does have a problem with taking poll results too literally, which they really should have learned was a bad idea from recent election results in the US, UK and Australia. They should emphasize more how polls are rough guides and can't be exact, or there is a risk that they end up with egg on their faces after the election.
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ethanhenare1
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« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2019, 12:10:00 AM »

Yeah Winston's position seems ironic, I heard him in a speech say "if you can't get 5% you're no darn good", especially given he's fallen below 5% twice and could well do so again in 2020.

Yeah, it's pretty dumb saying a party shouldn't be in parliament if they can't get 5% considering that's exactly what he did from 1999-2002 thanks to winning the Tauranga electorate.
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ethanhenare1
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« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2019, 12:22:35 AM »

This poll isn't great for Labour, and the trends are concerning. However, it does depend on what you compare the poll to. If you compare it to the last election, the results look more favourable for Labour.

National: 56_ 43.9%(-0.5%)
Labour: 54+8 41.6%(+4.7%)
Green: 8_ 6.3%(_)
ACT: 2+1 1.4%(+0.9%)
NZ First: 0-9 4.0%(-3.2%)
120 seats
61 for majority

And of course, as an actual election outcome a Labour-Greens coalition without NZ First would be a great result and cause a leftward shift in policy.

I think it's best to take a balanced approach and think about the trends between different polls as well as the trends from the last election. Labour getting 51% of the vote was a bit unrealistic of course, no party has ever won an outright majority under MMP. The upcoming election does look competitive, Labour does have weaknesses on areas like tax, and if the global economy does slow that would be very damaging to their election chances. However, Labour's position is not actually bad right now, and I think Jacinda is the favourite to win.

Also the NZ media does have a problem with taking poll results too literally, which they really should have learned was a bad idea from recent election results in the US, UK and Australia. They should emphasize more how polls are rough guides and can't be exact, or there is a risk that they end up with egg on their faces after the election.

That's a very fair point, I definitely think that while recent polling is troubling for Labour, it's far from a death sentence, in fact, I would argue a Lab-Green coalition is still favoured to win, just maybe in a closer election than previously expected. I also agree that NZ media tends to obsess over polling numbers a bit too much (perhaps because the MMP system allows them to be instantly converted into seat projections). But at the end of the day, it's still a year out from election day, from memory the chances of a Labour victory seemed pretty unlikely at this point in the last election cycle so a lot could still happen from now to election day.
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ethanhenare1
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« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2019, 12:37:19 AM »

Okay, I understand the irony considering the post I literally just made. But I just saw a notification from One News saying a new Colmar Brunton poll is out (I hate how we have to wait months for any polling and then get two within two days). So since I've been posting new polls so far may as well keep up the trend. This new one is definitely a worse poll for Labour than the Newshub one as it would give National and Act enough to govern, and is the first poll I've seen this cycle that has given them enough to do so.

- National: 47%  (+2%)
- Labour: 40%  (-3%)
- Greens: 7%  (+1%)
- NZFirst: 4%  (+1%)
- ACT: 1% - (Steady)
- Māori: 1% - (Steady)
- TOP: 1% (Steady)

Preferred PM:

- Ardern - 38%
- Bridges - 9%
- Collins - 5%
- Peters - 4%
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Pericles
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« Reply #29 on: November 24, 2019, 03:14:39 PM »

An interesting new poll came out, done by Stuff and YouGov. These were the results; https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/117662933/labour-ahead-while-national-dips-below-40-in-new-stuff-poll

Labour: 41%
National: 39%
Green: 8%
NZ First: 8%
ACT: 2%

This would of course mean Labour is re-elected and on these numbers could govern with either the Greens or NZ First.

This does contrast with the other polls, and is significantly worse for National. YouGov also isn't a regular pollster in New Zealand.
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ethanhenare1
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« Reply #30 on: November 24, 2019, 08:18:54 PM »

Tbh one of my biggest takeaways from this poll is holy crap I'm glad that we're finally getting more polling than just Reid Research and Colmar Brunton for this election. Another interesting thing to note about this poll that may explain some of the differences to previous ones is the fact it's using online polling instead of polling just by phone. I must admit I haven't done a ton of research over exactly how accurate each method is but my gut says YouGov's methodology seems pretty solid. Other things to note are that this poll was taken before the highly publicised NZFirst Donor scandal so NZFirst may be doing worse off overall than what's shown here. The Green's had a pretty good result, possibly as a result of their Zero Carbon Bill passing in Parliament just before the poll was taken. This bill may also in part explain ACT's comparatively good result pf 2% (enough to get them a second seat for the first time since 2011) as they were the only party to oppose the Zero Carbon Bill and a few National supporters who disliked their party's support of the bill may have migrated to ACT. Overall, interesting results, hoping for further polling soon.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #31 on: November 26, 2019, 08:11:32 PM »

Even polls showing National ahead like Colmar Brunton are not totally bad for Labour.  On preferred PM, Ardern still has a large lead and more importantly on approval rating, hers is quite positive while Bridges is quite negative.  Don't know about New Zealand's politics whether leaders matter a lot or is more party, but certainly in Canada, US, and UK where I am familiar, leader's poll numbers are often good lead indicators.  In Australia, Scott Morrison had much better personal numbers than Bill Shorten and that ultimately paid off at ballot box.  In Canada, Trudeau's were quite a bit higher than Scheer's despite trailing in the polls for much of the year which is why Tories as election day came closer saw theirs fall.  Same in US in 2012 where Obama's were much better than Romney's despite close overall.  Now if Bridges improves his image during campaign, then things could be different.  2017 UK polls showed May had much higher personal numbers than Corbyn at beginning, but by end were tied thus close results.  But if personal numbers don't change, I suspect party numbers will start to move in that direction. 

The trend is definitely negative for Labour, but leadership #'s are still positive for them.  Often outside an election when governing party disappoints, people hold up their ideal opposition leader and base opinion on that, but once they start to look at choices things change.  In US, many polls show generic Democrat ten points ahead of Trump, but no one really believes Democrats will win by that much since once candidate is chosen and people focus on them and what the alternative means that will tighten.
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Pericles
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« Reply #32 on: December 02, 2019, 01:07:02 AM »

A weird new poll came out showing National can now form a government. It does seem support may have shifted against Labour, and Simon Bridges isn't doing as badly as he was a few months ago. Here are the results, brackets show the change from 2017.

National-46%(+2%)
Labour-39%(+2%)
Green-7%(+1%)
NZ First-4%(-3%)
ACT-2%(+1%)

National and ACT combined would have 61 seats, a bare majority, with wasted votes from NZ First falling below the 5% threshold being the deciding factor. This is after the NZ First donations scandal, but before the Labour conference a few days ago where Labour promised a significant investment in school upgrades.

Honestly I don't think National will win the next election. I don't want to just dismiss polls, but I don't think this is how New Zealand will actually vote. NZ First I think could easily end up above the 5% threshold despite bad polls as they usually outperform the polls and their support usually increases in election campaigns (2017 being a notable exception due to the outbreak of Jacindamania). Simon Bridges is still a lot less popular than Jacinda Ardern, though her ratings have fallen slightly in this poll.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #33 on: December 05, 2019, 01:10:39 AM »

A weird new poll came out showing National can now form a government. It does seem support may have shifted against Labour, and Simon Bridges isn't doing as badly as he was a few months ago. Here are the results, brackets show the change from 2017.

National-46%(+2%)
Labour-39%(+2%)
Green-7%(+1%)
NZ First-4%(-3%)
ACT-2%(+1%)

National and ACT combined would have 61 seats, a bare majority, with wasted votes from NZ First falling below the 5% threshold being the deciding factor. This is after the NZ First donations scandal, but before the Labour conference a few days ago where Labour promised a significant investment in school upgrades.

Honestly I don't think National will win the next election. I don't want to just dismiss polls, but I don't think this is how New Zealand will actually vote. NZ First I think could easily end up above the 5% threshold despite bad polls as they usually outperform the polls and their support usually increases in election campaigns (2017 being a notable exception due to the outbreak of Jacindamania). Simon Bridges is still a lot less popular than Jacinda Ardern, though her ratings have fallen slightly in this poll.

I think approval ratings of leaders is a key.  As long as Ardern's approval ratings are positive seems unlikely she will lose while if opposition is negative that makes little sense.  Whenever a leader loses, usually their approval rating is in negative territory and usually their opponent is either more popular or at least fairly close.  My understanding and I could be wrong is there are more New Zealanders who lean National than Labour so with no election on the horizon, people just saying what they usually vote.

I remember in Canada going into 2008 election, most polls showed Liberals tied or slightly ahead of Conservatives, but on approval rating, Stephane Dion (Liberal leader) had half the approval rating Stephen Harper (Conservative PM did) and once campaign started numbers moved towards that.

That is not to say National couldn't win, just that from my experience at least in other English speaking countries, leaders who get defeated usually have much worse approval ratings.  If you look at G7 leaders, I believe every single one has a negative rating yet if an election were held today, probably asides Italy, all of them would be re-elected.
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Pericles
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« Reply #34 on: December 05, 2019, 05:40:53 PM »

I'm inclined to agree, Jacinda Ardern is still very popular and Simon Bridges is unpopular, and I think that swings it to Labour in the end. The last few changes of government had the Leader of the Opposition and the incumbent Prime Minister close together in the preferred Prime Minister polling-Bill English had a slight lead over Jacinda there in 2017, and John Key actually led Helen Clark there in 2008. I am not 100% sure but I believe 1999 was also close in that regard. Jim Bolger didn't do great in those polls and seems to be a unique case, offering some encouragement to Simon Bridges, but I don't think even the biggest National Party hack can argue that Labour has stuffed it up for themselves now anything close to how they did in the 1987-1990 term.

And you are correct that more New Zealanders lean towards National. Interestingly, despite National  not forming the government in 2017, their brand wasn't damaged much (if at all) going into Opposition. 44% and a 7% lead over Labour is a great starting point from which to go into opposition with, and this situation doesn't have much precedent. National still needs to increase its vote by about 2-3 points to form a government though (it depends on how many 'wasted votes'-votes for parties that don't win any parliamentary representation-there are), this probably doesn't end up happening.
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« Reply #35 on: December 05, 2019, 07:19:59 PM »

The fact that the nationals are leading despite Arden being highly popular is fascinating. Do New Zealanders simply separate their opinion of party leaders from party preference more than voters in most other nations?
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Pericles
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« Reply #36 on: December 05, 2019, 07:44:07 PM »

The fact that the nationals are leading despite Arden being highly popular is fascinating. Do New Zealanders simply separate their opinion of party leaders from party preference more than voters in most other nations?

If anything I'd have thought we vote more on party leaders than other nations, given Labour surged by 10-15 points in the polls right after Jacinda became leader and Labour pretty much changed none of its policies or substance. For 2020 it's hard to tell right now what is going on, New Zealand only has 2 regular pollsters and even with more polling early polls can be significantly different from the final result.
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PSOL
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« Reply #37 on: January 21, 2020, 11:07:38 AM »

Can the Kiwis out there tell me what’s goin’ on at Ihumātao a bit further
Quote
A decision on the future of the disputed site of Ihumātao outside Auckland is imminent, according to a protest organiser Pania Newton.

The sacred site in south Auckland was seized by the Crown in 1863, and sold to private developer Fletcher Building in 2016, which planned to put housing on the land.

In August last year Māori activists seized Ihumātao and staged a mass occupation, with thousands of New Zealanders travelling from around the country to take part in the sit-in. The aim of the occupation was to reclaim the land for Māori and all New Zealanders as a public space.
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Pericles
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« Reply #38 on: January 28, 2020, 03:08:07 PM »

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced the next general election will be held on 19 September, of course the referendums on euthanasia and marijuana legalization (the latter especially looks close) will also be held then. This is similar to the previous two election dates, the 23rd and 20th of September respectively. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/01/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-confirms-2020-general-election-date.html

This election looks pretty competitive. The National Party has been polling well, but I expect Labour to win another term because Jacinda is popular and likable and Simon Bridges is the opposite. Currently, I think the most likely outcome is a continuation of the Labour-NZ First-Greens government, with Labour gaining support while its allies lose some support and National remains stable. However, both a National Party government and a Labour-Greens government are real possibilities.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #39 on: February 02, 2020, 04:52:51 PM »

Former Labor Prime Minister Mike Moore is dead.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/408664/former-new-zealand-prime-minister-mike-moore-dies-aged-71
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PSOL
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« Reply #40 on: March 18, 2020, 09:00:29 PM »

Abortion is now Decriminalized
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Pericles
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« Reply #41 on: March 18, 2020, 09:11:32 PM »


Pleased to see this passed-though disappointed that the provision establishing safe zones around abortion clinics was removed.
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Pericles
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« Reply #42 on: March 20, 2020, 08:30:47 PM »

For New Zealand, an alert system has been announced for coronavirus. This link shows in more detail how the alert system works. There are alert levels for both nationwide and regionally, so it's possible that certain regions of New Zealand could end up being locked down. New Zealand is currently at Alert Level 2 (the levels go from 1-4). Also, New Zealand has 52 coronavirus cases with almost all being directly from overseas arrivals and no clear community transmission so far.

So for Alert Level 2, these are the measures that take place with it "Entry border measures maximised, Further restrictions on mass gatherings, Physical distancing on public transport (e.g. leave the seat next to you empty if you can), Limit non-essential travel around New Zealand, Employers start alternative ways of working if possible (e.g. remote working, shift-based working, physical distancing within the workplace, staggering meal breaks, flexible leave arrangements), Business continuity plans activated, High-risk people advised to remain at home (e.g. those over 70 or those with other existing medical conditions)"

This seems like an interesting idea and a good way to inform the public about where things are at-I heard on the radio that a business owner was saying this provides more certainty and there had been a lot of worry with rumours of a nationwide lockdown (which so far is not happening in New Zealand).  Have other countries adopted similar systems?
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #43 on: March 20, 2020, 09:43:17 PM »

How is NZ going to police mass gatherings of the Maori populous?

I have watched enough Motorway Patrol is learn they have their own cultural laws and dont often adhere to Government directives.
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Pericles
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« Reply #44 on: March 25, 2020, 04:15:38 AM »

New Zealand is going into a 4-week lockdown tonight. We are relatively early in the outbreak, with just over 200 cases and no deaths so far. Most of those cases have also been from overseas arrivals too. However, a few have been from community transmission. I think the government has made the right move to try and contain it early, and I hope we've gone early enough. It seems that Jacinda Ardern is trying to follow the approach taken in countries like Singapore and Taiwan, rather than let things escalate as they are in Europe. So far I'm impressed with her handling of this crisis, she comes across as a calm and responsible leader.
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Pericles
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« Reply #45 on: April 07, 2020, 04:43:01 AM »

The Health Minister David Clark broke the lockdown rules he helped set and definitely had to know, by first taking a 20km drive to a beach near Dunedin and then going on a mountain bike ride (the government guidelines tell people not to go swimming or engage in activities like mountain biking where people could get lost or hurt and so need help from the health system).  https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/clarke-offers-resign-after-trip-beach This is infuriating and I'm disgusted that politicians like him act so arrogantly that they think the rules don't apply to them. He has been demoted, and Jacinda Ardern said she would have sacked him outright except that she thought it would do more harm than good to replace a health minister in the middle of a pandemic (which seems reasonable).

We are now almost halfway through the lockdown, though it could be extended for either the entire country or certain regions. So far New Zealand has 1,160 cases of coronavirus and 1 death. Of those, many are linked to overseas travel while community transmission does not appear to be widespread. The growth rate is falling, it was at 54 today after having previously been around 70-80 a day. Given the lag period in detecting cases, this is now the time where we get to see if the lockdown is working and whether it will need to be extended. I think Jacinda Ardern has shown exemplary leadership through this, along with Director of Health Ashley Bloomfield, and I'm grateful to have her as Prime Minister at this time. She has made the right calls like going into full lockdown relatively early, and generally been clear and empathetic with the public.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #46 on: April 07, 2020, 10:17:44 AM »

The Health Minister David Clark broke the lockdown rules he helped set and definitely had to know, by first taking a 20km drive to a beach near Dunedin and then going on a mountain bike ride (the government guidelines tell people not to go swimming or engage in activities like mountain biking where people could get lost or hurt and so need help from the health system).  https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/clarke-offers-resign-after-trip-beach This is infuriating and I'm disgusted that politicians like him act so arrogantly that they think the rules don't apply to them. He has been demoted, and Jacinda Ardern said she would have sacked him outright except that she thought it would do more harm than good to replace a health minister in the middle of a pandemic (which seems reasonable).

In a sense, staying on as health minister is like the worst punishment he could get. The PM is damning him to a continued career of complete & utter ridicule, for the sake of continuity in health governance through the crisis. One must assume he's actually playing a good role behind the scenes because he sure as hell hasn't done anything useful that's public-facing.

If he had any honor, he'd seppuku his political career on the spot. But I guess the PM has told him that he doesn't get that privilege. While I would much prefer he got the sack (for optics as much as anything), not getting the sack is hardly being saved. God, wouldn't you wanna just disappear from public life for good?

Anyway, what an utter f**king idiot. Does this guy legit thinks he's better than the citizens who've been following the lockdown? Because not only is this pretty dumb, even for a politician, but it's insulting to the public & the rest of cabinet.
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tack50
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« Reply #47 on: April 07, 2020, 07:57:42 PM »

To be fair I could see that simply being a perfect excuse to keep a crony minister.

Not sure how NZ works, but I have seem plenty of politicians survive pretty serious scandals.
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Pericles
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« Reply #48 on: April 07, 2020, 09:24:11 PM »

Update from today-the growth rate in cases has fallen again to 50, with 284 now recovered and the total cases in New Zealand being 1,210. 12 people are in hospital with 4 in ICU, but still only 1 death. Overall, it looks like the lockdown is working, and Jacinda Ardern is cautiously optimistic (but she warned that we need to 'stay the course' and not get complacent).
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Pericles
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« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2020, 03:51:37 AM »

The lockdown still seems to be working. Today, the growth rate was just 19. Sadly, there have been 4 more deaths from coronavirus. Currently, there are 1,349 total cases, with 546 recoveries and 5 deaths.  On April 20, the government will announce whether the lockdown comes to an end or is extended. It looks like they acted just in time and saved New Zealand from a large outbreak and deaths.

Of course, even if the lockdown does end, normal life won't resume on April 22 or for quite a while. The borders will also probably have to remain closed for a while, and the government this week strengthened protections there to require all arrivals into New Zealand to quarantine for 14 days (previously only those who did not have a self isolation plan in place had to quarantine).

New Zealand may end up nationally self isolating from coronavirus in a collective bubble, if it is eliminated within the country. However, how long that can be sustained is unclear. For now, I'm relieved that people are staying home, being kind and saving lives.
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