Red state Democrats and blue state Republicans: States that can elect either way
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  Red state Democrats and blue state Republicans: States that can elect either way
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Author Topic: Red state Democrats and blue state Republicans: States that can elect either way  (Read 1194 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: February 20, 2019, 07:56:56 PM »

Hyperpolarized America has led to an America where a Missouri Democrat can't win anymore and a Virginia Republican can't win anymore.

They are some bright lights: A Democrat could get elected in Louisiana or Mississippi if they run a smart political campaign. A Republican could get elected in Massachusetts, Vermont, Maryland and New  Jersey.

What states can you see the red state or blue state voting for a different party?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2019, 07:58:38 PM »

It really depends. Are we talking about Senate races or gubernatorial/other statewide elections?
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2019, 08:02:12 PM »

It really depends. Are we talking about Senate races or gubernatorial/other statewide elections?

All election races.

A Democrat that can win an Oklahoma election is Brad Henry or Dan Boren.

A Republican that can win a New Jersey election in favorable political environment is Bob Hugin?, or some Jersey businessman or white ethnic politician

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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2019, 08:41:49 PM »

Illinois, more than most other blue states, is probably the most open to electing Republicans statewide.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2019, 09:05:59 PM »

Illinois, more than most other blue states, is probably the most open to electing Republicans statewide.

This is somewhat related. I have discussed with a few posters before about a dynamic I could see happening in the future. Atlanta vs Chicago suburbs.

DuPage and Gwinnett counties could well give similar margins for Democratic presidential candidates in 10 years. But an interesting divergence between the two counties could occur for local and state politics.

Let's say a presidential election occurs and Gwinnett and DuPage both give the Democratic presidential candidate a 57 to 39 victory but two years later we would see Democrats sweep all offices in Gwinnett County and the Republican gubernatorial candidate would be dead on arrival in Gwinnett. However, up north in DuPage County the GOP and Democrats could well split local offices and the Republican gubernatorial candidate would have a fighting chance in DuPage.

This is due to more of Cook County vs rest of state dynamic and the fact that DuPage's electorate will be far far whiter compared to Gwinnett County.

Lake County is the only Chicago collar county in which I would see the GOP as locked out in 10 years but even there the Republican candidate could put up a fight if the GOP manages to win Illinois statewide.

Everything I just said about Gwinnettt vs DuPage could probably be stated for Georgia vs Illinois in the future. Both states giving similar margins to Democratic presidential candidates but for state politics it would be more difficult for a Republican to win Georgia. Illinois would have a solid GOP downstate and fairly elastic suburbs while Georgia would no longer have suburbs that could vote GOP under certain circumstances and would have to depend very heavily on outstate Georgia.

Heh, in 2022 we could see Pritzker winning re-election carrying only Cook, Lake and maybe St Clair. In 10 to 12 years a competitive gubernatorial contest there could involve the Democrat carrying only Cook and Lake.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2019, 11:34:00 PM »

Illinois, more than most other blue states, is probably the most open to electing Republicans statewide.

This is somewhat related. I have discussed with a few posters before about a dynamic I could see happening in the future. Atlanta vs Chicago suburbs.

DuPage and Gwinnett counties could well give similar margins for Democratic presidential candidates in 10 years. But an interesting divergence between the two counties could occur for local and state politics.

Let's say a presidential election occurs and Gwinnett and DuPage both give the Democratic presidential candidate a 57 to 39 victory but two years later we would see Democrats sweep all offices in Gwinnett County and the Republican gubernatorial candidate would be dead on arrival in Gwinnett. However, up north in DuPage County the GOP and Democrats could well split local offices and the Republican gubernatorial candidate would have a fighting chance in DuPage.

This is due to more of Cook County vs rest of state dynamic and the fact that DuPage's electorate will be far far whiter compared to Gwinnett County.

Lake County is the only Chicago collar county in which I would see the GOP as locked out in 10 years but even there the Republican candidate could put up a fight if the GOP manages to win Illinois statewide.

Everything I just said about Gwinnettt vs DuPage could probably be stated for Georgia vs Illinois in the future. Both states giving similar margins to Democratic presidential candidates but for state politics it would be more difficult for a Republican to win Georgia. Illinois would have a solid GOP downstate and fairly elastic suburbs while Georgia would no longer have suburbs that could vote GOP under certain circumstances and would have to depend very heavily on outstate Georgia.

Heh, in 2022 we could see Pritzker winning re-election carrying only Cook, Lake and maybe St Clair. In 10 to 12 years a competitive gubernatorial contest there could involve the Democrat carrying only Cook and Lake.

uh Champagn county would also be won by the D.

This would obviously counteracted by insane rural margins with 1 or two counties going 90+ for the GOP.
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Deblano
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2019, 12:26:43 AM »

That is true in Presidential/Senate races, but we still see how states like Maryland and Massachusetts will elect/reelect Republicans, and states like Kansas will elect Democrats for Governor.

However, you are correct how on the national level it will stay ideologically homogeneous for the foreseeable future.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2019, 12:48:42 AM »

Right off the bat, I can think of Montana as a state which has been won by Republicans at the presidential level and in house races most of the time recently but has elected Democrats for Governor and Senate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2019, 02:22:46 AM »

IA is the only state that will do this, vote GOP and FL or OH vote Dem. But, it never happened in modern times only in 1960 and 1976, did it not vote for winner
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SInNYC
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2019, 11:54:07 AM »

There is no state locked in as D (unless DC counts). NY, CA, MD, MA, VT, and IL have all voted for Republican governors in recent years. Democratic states that are less diverse tend to be purplish or at least purplish and thus possible for Rs to win.

The converse isn't true. Its hard to see AL, MS or even TX voting for a D at the state level - even somebody who liked to pickup teenage girls essentially tied.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2019, 01:51:22 AM »

There is no state locked in as D (unless DC counts). NY, CA, MD, MA, VT, and IL have all voted for Republican governors in recent years. Democratic states that are less diverse tend to be purplish or at least purplish and thus possible for Rs to win.

The converse isn't true. Its hard to see AL, MS or even TX voting for a D at the state level - even somebody who liked to pickup teenage girls essentially tied.




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Orser67
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« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2019, 10:53:30 AM »

Going forward, in terms of the four main statewide races (pres, governor, senate x2), this is how I see it:

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lfromnj
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« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2019, 12:55:40 PM »

What makes zero sense is that blue state Republicans(Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan) are liberal and red state Democrats(Steve Bullock and John Bell Edwards) are also liberal. When it comes to blue state Republicans and red state Democrats, it is not a two way street.


JBE and Hogan are both moderates
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2019, 01:37:47 PM »

What makes zero sense is that blue state Republicans(Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan) are liberal and red state Democrats(Steve Bullock and John Bell Edwards) are also liberal. When it comes to blue state Republicans and red state Democrats, it is not a two way street.

Cory Gardner is a pretty conservative Republican from a blue state. Also JBE is fairly conservative, as is Joe Manchin.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2019, 01:41:02 PM »

What makes zero sense is that blue state Republicans(Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan) are liberal and red state Democrats(Steve Bullock and John Bell Edwards) are also liberal. When it comes to blue state Republicans and red state Democrats, it is not a two way street.

Cory Gardner is a pretty conservative Republican from a blue state. Also JBE is fairly conservative, as is Joe Manchin.

I mean Gardner was elected when Colorado was still swing(It was the tipping point state in 08 and 12)
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2019, 04:05:56 PM »

What makes zero sense is that blue state Republicans(Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan) are liberal and red state Democrats(Steve Bullock and John Bell Edwards) are also liberal. When it comes to blue state Republicans and red state Democrats, it is not a two way street.

Cory Gardner is a pretty conservative Republican from a blue state. Also JBE is fairly conservative, as is Joe Manchin.
Cory Gardner and Joe Manchin are some of the very few exceptions.

How in the literal  is JBE "liberal," but Joe Manchin isn't?  LOL
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2019, 05:31:49 PM »

How in the literal  is JBE "liberal," but Joe Manchin isn't?  LOL

Objectively speaking Manchin might be as right wing or even more right wing than yourself Tom.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2019, 05:47:29 PM »

How in the literal  is JBE "liberal," but Joe Manchin isn't?  LOL

Objectively speaking Manchin might be as right wing or even more right wing than yourself Tom.

Being more right wing than Tom isn't saying much though. Wink
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2019, 05:55:02 PM »

How in the literal  is JBE "liberal," but Joe Manchin isn't?  LOL

Objectively speaking Manchin might be as right wing or even more right wing than yourself Tom.

Being more right wing than Tom isn't saying much though. Wink

Lol true.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #19 on: February 23, 2019, 10:38:26 AM »

How in the literal  is JBE "liberal," but Joe Manchin isn't?  LOL

Objectively speaking Manchin might be as right wing or even more right wing than yourself Tom.

Being more right wing than Tom isn't saying much though. Wink

Lol true.

Kinda random to bring me into a comparison of two politicians ?  Lol
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