Canadian by-elections, 2019

[DC Al Fine]

If the PPC does well it can only help Jagmeet Singh. It sounds like they may get votes from socially conservative Chinese voters some of whom would have voted for the the Liberal Richard Lee as well as potential Tory voters. I don't see much (if any) NDP/PPC migration.

Agreed, at least for Metro Vancouver. The NDP coaltion looks very different than it did in 1988-1993.

[DC Al Fine]

Okay this is the viewpoint of an outsider so grain of salt, but if the PPC perform well here (Like let's say 20% or so), wouldn't that give them a sort of "legitimacy" of sorts and make them seem like a viable option to would-be supporters who are currently sticking with the Tories?

If they broke 20% it would be big news and would likely result in them being treated more seriously by the media and current Tory voters alike. That's a big, big if though. Burnaby is not exactly a right wing stronghold, so 20% for the People's Party would require a Tory collapse and/or a weird migration of the "promiscuous progressive" vote.

[DC Al Fine]

Ah, this is the most peak Atlas discussion I have ever seen.

Do people seriously believe some random in Ontario would have any evidence of the PPC polling 20% in Burnaby South? And why do we care about a poll of "high school students" of 288 people?

Agreed. That's a garbage poll among garbage polls. I can maybe see the PPC pulling high single digits because its a by election and/or local factors, but 30% is ridiculous. *Prepares to eat crow tonight*

Does immigration / multiculturalism fall in the socially conservative category ? I was going to say maybe the People's party candidate in Burnaby is socially conservative but Bernier and probably what he wants his party to be is not. I was thinking on issues like abortion, same sex marriage, marijuana.

For Outremiont, a former NDP strategist says if the NDP finishes with a strong second place, that would already be a win for the party.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ndp-byelection-outremont-1.5028818

He doesn't give a percentage result I'm thinking around 25% would be a good result. It's more than half of the score in the last election and there is no leader, or well known person boost. The party is polling less than half of the result province wide.  Mainstreet Research had the NDP at 13% on the island of Montreal in last week's poll with presumably a large margin of error, so 25% would be double that number. In his last projection qc125 website has the NDP below 20% in Outremont, with the margin could be low 20s. The article talks about the environment being a concern for some voters. The Greens are running a well known environmentalist. He had a good result in the Saint-Laurent byelection, the party seems to be polling higher than before so he could do well.

Bernier's reception has been quite cool in my social conservative circle due to his personal libertarianism. YMMV

[DC Al Fine]

Would the Liberals really help the Greens right now? That sounds a bit too clever for their own good. The Greens seem to have been a big beneficiary of the Liberals drop in the polls, even more than the Conservatives, presumably because they provide an alternative for progressives upset about the pipeline or LavScam who are too rich to vote NDP.

If the Greens win that by-election, it could solidify them as a legitimate progressive alternative to the Liberals and NDP, which in turn could mean a world of hurt for the Liberals in October. Then again, what do I know. The Liberals have made so many mistakes managing LavScam, maybe they will help the Greens

[DC Al Fine]

What sort of "ambitious progressive and green public policies" are you guus thinking of Hash and Hatman?

[DC Al Fine]

Well, for me, my main local issues are:

- Support for ranked ballots
- Building more affordable housing
- More bike lanes / multi-use paths
- Lowering (or at least freezing) transit fares
- Not reducing the size of council (preferably increasing it)

Pipe dream: De-amalgamation and/or establish boroughs.

I'm with you on the council size one. Halifax has more MLA's than councillors thanks to size reductions

[DC Al Fine]

The Progressive Canadians are still kicking around? Neat.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called a by-election in Sackville-Cobequid for June 18th. The election is being held to replace former NDP cabinet minister and leadership candidate Dave Wilson, who retired last year. Sackville-Cobequid is traditionally an NDP seat, but it has been close a few times and the Tories are running a star candidate, Steve Craig, the councilor for the area.

Should be an NDP hold, but the Tories have an outside shot at picking up the seat.

[DC Al Fine]

Sackville Cobequid by-election is today.

[DC Al Fine]

Not especially surprising. PC's are up in the polls, had a star candidate, and the NDP could have done a better job. Burill is not a great fit for the area.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

I agree that d'Entremont has the best chance. Interestingly the reverse can be said for the seats they vacated?

What's wrong with Houston. And why is it Cape Breton MLAs that dislike him - add Paon's issues too, although that's mostly her fault.

I would expect the Tories to retain all three resigned seats. They held them in 2009's landslide loss, so it shouldn't be hard to retain them while leading the polls.

As for the Cape Breton thing, I've heard they are upset at Houston for being more Halifax-centric than Baillie was. Cape Breton has trended hard Tory over the past few years, primarily as a result of the Tories focusing on rural healthcare shortages and Houstan has moved away from that. Some of it is also the result of style differences. Houston is quite urbane, almost Trudeauish, while MacLeod and Orrell are more the old-style, back slapping, baby kissing, rubber chicken in a church basement type of politician.

Keep in mind this is all based off rumours, so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt.

[DC Al Fine]

By-elections to replace the three Tory MLA's who resigned to run federally, are being held today; Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg. Given the provincial polls, I would expect all three seats to be comfortable Tory holds.

[DC Al Fine]

By-elections were held yesterday in Nova Scotia. Two snoozers plus one really weird result:

Argyle-Barrington
Tory: 62% (-3)
Liberal: 31% (+1)
NDP: 3% (-1)
Green: 3% (+3)

Northside-Westmount
Tory: 29% (-34)
Liberal: 21% (nc)
Indy (Danny Laffin) 19%
NDP: 17% (+1)
Indy (Andrew Doyle) 10%
Green: 3% (+3)

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg
Tory: 44% (-24)
Liberal: 31% (+7)
Indy (Russ Green) 13%
NDP: 8% (nc)
Green: 4% (+4)

Couple quick thoughts:

1) That weird result was due to the then-Tory candidate getting booted mid campaign under questionable circumstances (he got #MeToo'd over an incident that he had disclosed to the party in two seperate candidacies), and running as an Indy

2) The Tories seem to have dropped a bit in Cape Breton from their spectacular highs in 2017. Given that they have taken the lead in the polls since then, that would suggest larger gains in Halifax and the rural mainland.

[DC Al Fine]

Bad results for the Tories, a drop in all three ridings (though, strong independent campaigns contributed to that).

The Sydney River result is especially concerning. Northside-Westmount is understandable given the mess that went on, and the Argyle-Barrington is basically the status quo, but Sydney River? Alfie MacLeod was very popular, but I don't think he was 25%-drop-when-he-retires popular.

I wish the other MLA turned federal candidate had resigned too. That would have provided a non-Tory held seat to help "calibrate" things.

The Liberals actually gaining ground in 2 of the 3 ridings is a surprise.

Yes, that definitely surprised me. I was expecting decent sized drops.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP MLA Lenore Zann was elected as a Liberal MP for Cumberland-Colchester, prompting her resignation provincially. We should have a by-election for her Truro-Bible Hill--Millbrook-Salmon River seat in the next several months. Should be an interesting test for all three major parties.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

Do you think they should be a social liberal party against the cultural conservatism of the CAQ and the socialism of the PQ/QS?

It's an interesting idea, but that coalition would have similar electoral problems to the Liberals' Anglo/Allo one. Bill 21 is very popular among Francos.

[DC Al Fine]

Tammy Martin, NDP MLA for Cape Breton Centre has resigned her seat due to poor health. The by-election is expected to be a Liberal-NDP race.

[DC Al Fine]

By elections have been called for March 10th in Cape Breton Centre and Truro-Bible Hill