Canadian by-elections, 2019

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa city council votes to hold a by-election in Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward (for April 15) to fill the vacancy of outgoing councillor Tobi Nussbaum, who has been appointed as the CEO of the National Capital Commission.

Nussbaum was a centre-left Liberal, who first won the seat in 2014, defeating former regional chair Peter Clark, a conservative who had only won in 2010 due to a massive vote split with 26% of the vote.

The ward is one of the city's "urban" wards, so it could be won by a progressive, though it typically votes Liberal on a provincial and federal level. It includes the very wealthy Rockcliffe Park neighbourhood, but it doesn't have a very large population.

[Hatman 🍁]

I am almost convinced Mainstreet just never geocoded their sample. Their numbers were very different from our internal #s.

[Hatman 🍁]

111/111 polls reporting

Total votes: 21,410
Sheila Malcolmson, NDP, 10,538, 49.2%
Tony Harris, Liberal: 8,665, 40.5%
Michele Ney, Green: 1,579,  7.4%
Justin Greenwood, Conservative, 442, 2.1%
Robin Richardson, Vancouver Island Party, 100, 0.5%
Bill Walker, Libertarian, 86, 0.4%

There are still 2,839 absentee ballots left to be counted. These are likely to fairly heavily favor the NDP.

Do we have a turnout number?

Based on the 2017 results:
NDP - 46.54%   +2.66% 2019 ByE
BCL - 32.54%   +7.96% 2019 ByE
GRN - 19.91%   -12.51% 2019 ByE

For a riding like Nanaimo, that was already strongly NDP, to be almost 50% is a win-win for the NDP; BCL can claim a win here too, 7% increase in a strong NDP riding is a very good showing. This Nanaimo riding has only existed since 2009 and the BCL have not won this high of a % till now. BCL must be happy to see the Conservatives at 2% as well, still no major threat, yet. Bad night for the BCGreens, they fell hard when you look at it, but really they fell back to around their traditional vote in this riding of about 8%.
On the surface it looks like the province will head back to the NDP-BCL two way race, if the Green vote collapses on the island like it did in this by-election. But Nanaimo was already not the strongest Green seat so maybe not.

I think the Greens can't be too upset. A Liberal win resulting in an early election would likely result in them having no more power at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout in Nanaimo was pretty good for a by-election. If there are 2,839 outstanding ballots, and there are still around 44k electors, then the turnout was about 55%.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess the NDP put most of their resources into Burnaby, and had to sacrifice Outremont, but as I kept saying a long time ago, the riding is still winnable, even in this environment. It used to be the party's best riding before they made their breakthrough with Mulcair. It's one of the least 'racist' ridings in the province, and is quite federalist, and has a progressive tint. Sure, it has a Liberal tradition, but it still backed Valerie Plante in the Montreal mayoral race over Denis Coderre.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hoping for a Rawlson King victory, obviously. With so many candidates running, his high profile endorsements might help him win, if he can capture most of the left wing vote.

I've only been into that ward once during the campaign, so I don't know who's winning the sign war. I do think  Kwong has the nicest signs though, FWIW.

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh. I should've put some money on it; Turned out it was a King-Kwong race.

+1 more NDP councillor And, apparently he will be the first Black city councillor in Ottawa's history.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's a VERY good turnout for a municipal by-election. Only a few hundred fewer voters than in last year's municipal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, and it's nice to see the mayor's candidate finished third. Of course, in council races the mayor's candidate of choice doesn't run as the "mayor's candidate". I guess Jim wants to be seen as independent, despite the fact he very clearly has a team of councillors who support almost all of his agenda.  If Jim had his campaign team out in full force, he could've easily got Thompson elected.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, for me, my main local issues are:

- Support for ranked ballots
- Building more affordable housing
- More bike lanes / multi-use paths
- Lowering (or at least freezing) transit fares
- Not reducing the size of council (preferably increasing it)

Pipe dream: De-amalgamation and/or establish boroughs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, for me, my main local issues are:

- Support for ranked ballots
- Building more affordable housing
- More bike lanes / multi-use paths
- Lowering (or at least freezing) transit fares
- Not reducing the size of council (preferably increasing it)

Pipe dream: De-amalgamation and/or establish boroughs.

I'm with you on the council size one. Halifax has more MLA's than councillors thanks to size reductions

Yup. As do many western Canadian cities. Ridiculous!

[Hatman 🍁]

Nathalie Des Roisiers (Liberal MPP for Ottawa-Vanier) is resigning to seek a job in academia. This will be the fourth by-election in that area in the last four years (Des Rosiers was elected in a 2016 by-election, and there was one federally in 2017, and a municipal by-election a few weeks ago).

Could be a potential NDP target if they run the right candidate (Emilie Taman maybe?). The demographics are right, but it is seen as a "safe Liberal" seat. But, the NDP came within 9 points of winning it in the 2011 federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nathalie Des Roisiers (Liberal MPP for Ottawa-Vanier) is resigning to seek a job in academia. This will be the fourth by-election in that area in the last four years (Des Rosiers was elected in a 2016 by-election, and there was one federally in 2017, and a municipal by-election a few weeks ago).

Could be a potential NDP target if they run the right candidate (Emilie Taman maybe?). The demographics are right, but it is seen as a "safe Liberal" seat. But, the NDP came within 9 points of winning it in the 2011 federal election.

Should be a Liberal hold

Ok, but by-elections are quite different. Look at recent examples London West, Kitchener-Waterloo and Niagara Falls.

In theory, they could hold the by-election the same day as the Federal, but I suspect they wouldn't like that.

This never happens in Canada.

Bob Chiarelli or someone can come in and hold the seat for you.

Wrong end of town for Chiarelli to run in (he's also not a Francophone), plus he's pretty old now, so I'm sure he's had enough of politics.

Had the NDP run a good candidate (and a Franco), they would've won this seat last year. They came so close to winning Ottawa West and did very well in Ottawa South, two much more suburban ridings (with no NDP history!) than Ottawa-Vanier. Ottawa-Vanier is mostly an urban riding, and the western part of it is arguably the most left wing part of the city (especially Sandy Hill). Rideau-Rockcliffe just elected an NDP affiliated city councillor in a by-election. The riding can be won by the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals are leaderless at the moment, so things aren't really looking up for them- except for their polling, which is really just an artifact of reverting to the mean. I.e. "the bad lady's gone now, I suppose I can support the Liberals again". But, when it comes to actually voting people might want to support the main opposition party rather than the third party with only a handful of seats and no leader.

I forgot Taman was running federally, so that makes things difficult for the party. They're just beginning to (re)-build a local bench, and so don't have anyone other than Taman who is truly a 'star candidate', at least no one who is Francophone. Rawlson King just got elected to city council, and he's not a Franco, so he's out.  Lyra Evans wasn't a good candidate and isn't a Franco either (though, she's now a school trustee, so she's probably improved as a candidate) Another possibility is my school trustee, Chris Ellis, but again, not a Franco...

[Hatman 🍁]

the results are more back and forth than game 6 of the NBA finals. NDP leads by 16 votes with 16/40 polls in.

[Hatman 🍁]

34 polls in, it's now 1399-1264

[Hatman 🍁]

Awful

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1141157014166544391

I guess the NDP lost a bit to non voters/Greens while the Liberal vote collapsed into the PCs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Technically not a by-election, but the deferred election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough was today. Polls are now closed, and with the advanced poll in, the PCs have a decent lead:

PC 620
Lib 395
Grn 363
NDP 19

Because it's PEI, that's probably more than half the vote in the district in

[Hatman 🍁]

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

[Hatman 🍁]

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

Obviously. And this was going to be their best seat there anyway.

Maybe? Hard to say which seat is "their best". In 2015, their best Charlottetown seat was Brighton, which they lost by 24 votes. In 2011, they nearly won Tracadie-Hillsborough Park, including most of the polls in Hillsborough Park. 2007 was a disaster for the Tories, only breaking 40% in two ridings in the city (best was Lewis Park at 41%). In 2003, they won all but two ridings in Charlottetown, with their best being Belvedere. In other words, it's PEI, so it matters more who the candidates are.

When it comes to federal elections though, the Tories do seem to do the best in Hillsborough Park though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

I agree that d'Entremont has the best chance. Interestingly the reverse can be said for the seats they vacated?

What's wrong with Houston. And why is it Cape Breton MLAs that dislike him - add Paon's issues too, although that's mostly her fault.

I think PCs will probably hold all three simply due to how unpopular McNeil is.  Lets remember McNeil's approval ratings now are comparable to Wynne and Selinger at the time of both of their defeats and with by-elections having low turnouts, usually those mad at the government are more motivated to show up than those happy with them.

Even Doug Ford is more popular than McNeil.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bad results for the Tories, a drop in all three ridings (though, strong independent campaigns contributed to that).

The Liberals actually gaining ground in 2 of the 3 ridings is a surprise.

[Hatman 🍁]

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)
Dec 2: Jean-Talon, QC (provincial)
Dec 15: District 1, Saguenay, QC (municipal)

I don't think we'll have any others this year.

[Hatman 🍁]

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)

Former Olympic sprinter Bruny Surin is running in that race.

Cool!  He lost in a close three-way race:

Michel Trottier, Parti Laval 1501 (35%) +4%
Bruny Surin, Mouvement lavallois 1419 (33%) -12%
Francine Leblanc, Action Laval 1251 (29%) +17%
Gabriel Vellone, Progrès Laval 83 (2%) (new)

A star candidate for the party that has all but 2 seats on city council, and he lost? The current administration must not be popular.

[Hatman 🍁]

They're all vaguely centre left / centre, I think. As with most municipal political parties outside Montreal, they're mostly cults of personalities. Former NDP MP Francois Pilon ran for Parti Laval in 2017 and Action Laval used to be led by Jean-Claude Gobe, a federal Liberal and Adequiste. Wikipedia describes Mouvement lavallois as Social Democratic.

Upon doing more research, it looks like several Mouvement lavallois members defected to Action Laval, so it's not surprising that they Surin didn't do well.