Canadian by-elections, 2019

[lilTommy]

111/111 polls reporting

Total votes: 21,410
Sheila Malcolmson, NDP, 10,538, 49.2%
Tony Harris, Liberal: 8,665, 40.5%
Michele Ney, Green: 1,579,  7.4%
Justin Greenwood, Conservative, 442, 2.1%
Robin Richardson, Vancouver Island Party, 100, 0.5%
Bill Walker, Libertarian, 86, 0.4%

There are still 2,839 absentee ballots left to be counted. These are likely to fairly heavily favor the NDP.

Do we have a turnout number?

Based on the 2017 results:
NDP - 46.54%   +2.66% 2019 ByE
BCL - 32.54%   +7.96% 2019 ByE
GRN - 19.91%   -12.51% 2019 ByE

For a riding like Nanaimo, that was already strongly NDP, to be almost 50% is a win-win for the NDP; BCL can claim a win here too, 7% increase in a strong NDP riding is a very good showing. This Nanaimo riding has only existed since 2009 and the BCL have not won this high of a % till now. BCL must be happy to see the Conservatives at 2% as well, still no major threat, yet. Bad night for the BCGreens, they fell hard when you look at it, but really they fell back to around their traditional vote in this riding of about 8%.
On the surface it looks like the province will head back to the NDP-BCL two way race, if the Green vote collapses on the island like it did in this by-election. But Nanaimo was already not the strongest Green seat so maybe not.

[lilTommy]

I think for the NDP York-Simcoe was also surprisingly a good result, at about 7-8% that's just shy of their 9% from 2015, effectively holding their vote in a riding which was not at all considered a target. We have seen massive failures of the NDP in similar seats where the party dropped to 3% or so. Outremont is unfortunate for the NDP, no unexpected thought, but 20% would have been a decent night, so 26% is solid and should allow the party to breath a sigh a relief that Rosemount and Hochelaga are probably better for the NDP then they had thought. Also most of their 2015 survivors who are more personally popular like Ruth Ellen Brosseau and Pierre Luke Dusseault might fair better too.
Burnaby South is nothing but a success for the NDP; Singh winning and increasing the % over the 2015 numbers while the Liberals and Conservatives saw a decrease in votes.

16,827 - 30.9% - Liberals - Good night, gain Outremont but should be concerned with BC

15,157 - 27.9% - Conservatives - OK night, held a seat with some gains but not where they need it. Bad night in Quebec and BC. PPC should be a concern for them if they run good candidates

14,053 - 25.8% - NDP - Good night, Singh in the house is the "start" the party needs, decent result in Outremont, but still a loss, Que is still a concern, especially from the Greens and BQ but BC and Urban seats show some hope

3,056 - 5.6% - PPC - Good candidates can win a solid chunk, and hurt the CONs, probably overstated but 4% nationally is not out of the question

2,340 - 4.3% - Green - Isn't really representative, they are probably double this number. They only represented 3% in Burnaby South in 2015, but could have pulled in more in this by-election I think. Quebec was a good result so see they start to target there I think.  

[lilTommy]

I guess the NDP put most of their resources into Burnaby, and had to sacrifice Outremont, but as I kept saying a long time ago, the riding is still winnable, even in this environment. It used to be the party's best riding before they made their breakthrough with Mulcair. It's one of the least 'racist' ridings in the province, and is quite federalist, and has a progressive tint. Sure, it has a Liberal tradition, but it still backed Valerie Plante in the Montreal mayoral race over Denis Coderre.

I would say that is generally true, although I think Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie is even more favourable to the NDP.  After all this area went heavily for the PLQ last provincial election despite their terrible results while QS did well on the East Island but less so here.  Now unlike other provinces, Quebec's provincial elections are a different beast so you cannot automatically assume those who voted CAQ will go Conservative, PLQ Liberal, QS NDP, and PQ BQ, its a bit more complicated but it can at least give one an idea of the ideological orientations as the 2018 provincial election was probably the first since the Quiet Revolution fought more on philosophical orientation as opposed to separatism vs. federalism.

Federally I think after 2011, the NDP sweep, you saw Separatism really start to fall to the side as the major or even a major issue in Quebec during the federal election. Immigration (for Conservatives) and Climate Change/Pipelines (for Progressives) are much more important and becoming more dominant as Quebec's issues that they will focus on. Right now, I think the province is still trying to settle and adjust to this orientation, which is why the Liberals are doing very well, they are the safe bucket, they just know them. The PLQ and LPC are pretty much the same for the most part. The new NPDQ is too new to have solidified any provincial-federal relationship, but its there (just no ones paid attention, QS sucked up all that vote).

I think the NDP are relieved to some extent, and I think stronger candidates will be in place in their arguably best chances to keep seats, Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga than might have been if the NDP polled under 20%
I agree with the above, but QS voters are much more aligned with the NDP ideologically (minus separation) then with the other parties... even the BQ has moved to the right if i'm not mistaken. There used to more alignment with the NDP and PQ due to social issues/fiscal policy, but the PQ is shifting as well to the right. 

[lilTommy]

I suspect this should be an interesting Green/NDP race.  Greens are strong in Greater Victoria area so this will be test if they can move further up the Island.  Liberals have never been strong here so don't expect them to pick this up.  Tories in theory could win, but they would need very strong splits.  Yes they got 40% in 2011 in this riding, but they are nowhere near 2011 levels in BC, so I would say 30% is probably their ceiling or low 30s and I could just as easily see them staying in the 20s or maybe even teens if some vote tactically.

Agreed; the PM calling this by-election after the NDP win in Burnaby South, arguably there is some wind in the sales of the NDP but the NDP does not have a nominated candidate yet. Two high profile candidates are running:
* Lauren Semple, the event director for the last three Nanaimo Pride festivals, a former Nanaimo Pride president, and former riding assistant to Malcolmson; (I'd say the Socialist backed candidate by who i've seen endorse)
* Bob Chamberlin, vice president of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs and elected chief of the Kwikwasut'inuxw Haswa'mis First Nation. (Likely to win the nomination, huge candidate for the party)

The Green candidate is filmmaker and formerly rejected NDP candidate Paul Manly. We basically have a NDP vs Green-ish-NDPer. Now this is not the 2015 NDP so I don't think the criticisms here will stick to the party led by Jagmeet then say if Mulcair was still leader. 

https://www.straight.com/news/1218361/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-calls-election-nanaimo-ladysmith-midst-ndp-nomination

This will distract and occupy the left, which might be some relief for the LPC... but another NDP win will just add fire to the NDP now. Watch for the LPC to behind-the-scenes be helping the Greens.

[lilTommy]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/rawlson-king-byelection-win-1.5092982?fbclid=IwAR0BKbpZ0SQF1dC7Fi8Ojp0AmlmaXQMaz3suWmpGJvvF1-dyr7ctiIPNTRE

With 17 candidates, as above, King won with... 18.36%, 1529 votes. Kwong with 1406. over 30% turnout, I would suspect that's pretty decent for a municipal by-election.

[lilTommy]

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

At this point, QS has more broader representation in the NA then the Liberals.