Canadian by-elections, 2019

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In BC, I've generally found Advanced polls favour BC Liberals, but absentee ballots always favour NDP.  While not sure the reason, I believe absentee ballots are most commonly used by public servants who vote at work particularly public school teachers and that group off course tends to favour the NDP.  For advanced polls it tends to be more business types who are away on business travel or seniors especially in colder months who are travelling and those two tend to lean BC Liberals.

One thing I found in last year's Ontario election is that the PCs *and* NDP were advance-poll beneficiaries--and in the NDP's case, I think there's a trend among the younger urban politically-engaged class t/w "selfie voting" for the sake of posting "I voted" on social media; and doing so in advance is an emblem of one's being *really* committed to exercising one's franchise, like somehow, waiting for e-day is "slacking", or something.  (Personally, I prefer e-day, because then I show up in the poll-by-polls.)

Thus, in a riding like Davenport which went 60% NDP, the advance polls gave the NDP something like 3/4 of the vote.

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Interestingly enough Mainstreet research shows BC Conservative strongest amongst millennials even though that is the group where there is least amount of support for such policies and I believe that is because most weren't old enough to remember 1996 whereas boomers do remember it.

Wondering if it also reflects a generic younger-person inclination t/w parties other than the "big two"...

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BS-High Schoolers(?):PPC 31%, NDP 27%, LPC 18%, CPC 11%, OTH 13%

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to be clear, I'm pretty skeptical but it isn't like we're going to get any real riding polls so we'll see how this compares to the results

Poll conducted *utilizing* local students.  (You made it sound like it was a Student Vote poll)

Actually, I've been sort of wondering out loud whether PPC was poised for second place behiund Singh.  (First would be an earthquake.)

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While the talk is of Con + PPC potentially outpolling Singh in BS, the more unforeseen possibility is of NDP + Green outpolling the Libs in Outremont...

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Liberals: Fairly decent showing.  Up in Outremont, down a bit in York-Simcoe but still north of 30% and usually when Liberals get above 30% there they form government.  Burnaby South underperforming a bit.

I'd say *Outremont* is more the underperformance--at least relative to post-Mulcair expectations.  While given how much was invested in Jagmeet, as well as the candidate switcheroo and the division in the non-Jagmeet vote, BS was sort of what could be expected...

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And at this moment, NDP + Green *is* ahead of the Libs in Outremont (whether that'll hold, I don't know)

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So, who are the New Democrats that might have won in Outremont?

Tom Mulcair

Well, even Julia Sanchez, had the byelection not taken place w/Jagmeet's leadership under an unelected (yet) cloud (the absence of said cloud which probably would also have drawn a lot of Green vote-parkers their way).  After all, the party *was* privately expected to be happy with a solid 25% second-place result--and that's exactly what happened.

I think what a *lot* of people were expecting was a 50%+ Liberal blowout--SNC-Lavalin probably put a big dent in that.

And as for Burnaby South: it's interesting that after all the byelection psychodrama, the end result almost exactly replicated what Mainstreet polled in mid-January (38.8% NDP vs 39.0%, 26.3% Lib vs 26.0%, 22 % CPC vs 22.5%, 8.7% PPC vs 10.6%)

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After all this area went heavily for the PLQ last provincial election despite their terrible results while QS did well on the East Island but less so here.

Though that's more the W part (Cote-des-Neiges et al), and a lot of that has skewed by unfavourable provincial riding configuration as well (the real heart of PLQ support in Mont-Royal-Outremont being in Mont-Royal, which had a way of pulling the whole riding in that direction)

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/rawlson-king-byelection-win-1.5092982?fbclid=IwAR0BKbpZ0SQF1dC7Fi8Ojp0AmlmaXQMaz3suWmpGJvvF1-dyr7ctiIPNTRE

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It really depends on which way the Libs are perceived as going.  And while Ottawa-Vanier's definitely NDP-targetable on paper, under the circumstance that'd really depend upon conventional wisdom that the Ontario Liberals are headed for oblivion a la the Prairie Liberal parties.  And present polling doesn't support such oblivion theorem...

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31/40; 1269 NDP, 1126 PC, 338 Lib, 296 GP, 16 Atlantica

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All 40 polls--PC 2655, NDP 2472, Lib 655, GP 488, Atlantica 43.  (I presume the advance polls pushed the Tories over.)

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I doubt most voters in Charlottetown even know who Warren Kinsella is, least of all to the point where they can make ballot-box judgment on him.

And somehow, this result makes me wonder whether the Greens will be an oppositional one-election wonder, a la Mario Dumont's Adequistes, the Carstairs Liberals in Manitoba, the Joliffe CCF in Ontario, etc...

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Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

The Bloc was NOT a "one election wonder". The took 54 seats in 1993, but they went on to take between 40 and 50 seats in 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008. They dominated Quebec federally for almost 20 years. It wasn't until the NDP surge of 2011 that they were demolished.

I'm aware. I corrected my post to show what I mean - they were only the official opposition once - as that is what the last few posts have been referring to.

Though 1993 was really an electoral fluke thanks to the scale of Tory/NDP collapse and Reform fust falling short--and really, thanks to a finite number of viable seats, the Bloc had little or no choice but to plateau or lose ground, while Reform had more elbow room to grow.

And remember that when I'm talking about one-election wonders, I'm not simply talking about ekeing into OO for a single term, I'm talking about dramatic jumps into OO followed by dramatic falls--in which case the CCF's Ontario stints in the 40s count, but *not* Stephen Lewis in 1975, since his falling back into third in 1977 didn't involve a lot of lost ground.

Come to think of it, when it comes to the Maritimes, if we're thinking of governments as well as OO the Darrell Dexter NDP gov't in NS definitely counts--and then there's the matter of the Confederation of Regions in NB, who came from nowhere to become OO in 1991, then were wiped back off the map next election...

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I presume a 2020 thread's called for.