Canadian by-elections, 2019

[mileslunn]

I know it was discussed in the other forum, but today is Nanaimo by-election in BC.  This could be critical since if the NDP hold it, then they will likely last through this year, but if the BC Liberals pick it up possibility of a spring election.  Greens have already warned if NDP loses this, they will withdraw support although Weaver has made threats before only to pull back.  Notwithstanding Mainstreet's poll, I still think the NDP has a slight edge based on the history of the riding.  But the BC Liberals could pull off an upset for two reasons:

1.  By-elections typically tend to have low turnouts and those angry at the government are more motivated to show up than those happy with the job they are doing.
2.  By-elections skew heavily towards older voters who most polls show BC Liberals on a provincewide basis are leading while younger voters where NDP has a strong lead tend to be less likely to show up in by-elections as opposed to general elections.

I think if this were a general election, I am pretty sure it would go NDP as by-elections take on different dynamics and although the NDP has angered some, they haven't had any major screw ups and most who strongly dislike them probably never voted NDP to begin with and never would.  Amongst the 40% who voted for them in May 2017, I get the impression most of them are pretty happy with how they've governed, while most of the 40% who voted BC Liberal are not and Greens are a mix.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the results here are my thoughts.  I excluded Libertarians and Vancouver Island Party.

NDP: They held the riding and even saw their share of the popular vote go up slightly so generally a good sign as usually by-elections don't favour governing party mind you this was no ordinary by-election as unlike most others where you can launch a protest vote without consequences this was not the case, but still a good showing either way.  Certainly this helps establish themselves as the main progressive party.

BC Liberals: Despite falling short, it looks like they will end up with around 40% which is not a bad showing at all for them.  In many ways it appears a return to two party politics and if you were to apply a uniform swing (which I think with by-elections is always a risky idea) you would more or less get a repeat of the 2005 and 2009 elections.

Greens: Disastrous showing and looks like most Green voters in 2017 have returned to whichever party they voted for previously.  I suspect with PR dead, this might be the best the party will say in a long time.

BC Conservatives: Fact they only got 2% shows they are irrelevant and the fear of vote splitting on the right is totally overblown.

Pollsters: Mainstreet missed this one badly, mind you they showed BC Liberals with similarly big leads in Surrey-Fleetwood which wasn't even close so for them I take their overall provincial and federal numbers seriously, but ignore them on municipal and riding polls as have a good track record on the first two, not so good on the last two.

[mileslunn]

Just drove around Burnaby South today and saw a fair number of Jagmeet Singh signs.  Surprisingly few for Richard Lee while a surprising number for the Conservatives, Jay Shin.  Andrew Scheer even visited the riding so although I would be surprised if the Tories win it, its not totally impossible but unlikely.  Surprisingly saw a fair number of PPC signs and even a burmashave at Royal Oak Station for them where they were handing out flyers.  So will be interesting to see how they do although I suspect with the success of the far right in Europe and the US, many with similar views are emboldened in Canada thus very much in your face about it, but all polling I've seen suggests fairly little support for such policies.  Certainly on social media, PPC supporters are very noticeable, but I've also noticed your anti-immigration and pro-gun types big on social media and may appear to represent the majority of Canadians even though polls show the exact opposite, thus why I think it is important to be cautious here.

That being said still another 24 days away so will check back in a couple weeks to see how things look as often at this point its more a reflection of whom gets their campaign up and running faster.  Indeed the Liberals due to last minute change in candidate may be a bit behind thus why you see fewer Liberal signs then for the Tories or NDP, or as a matter of fact I think I saw more PPC than Liberal signs (but pretty sure many more will vote Liberal than PPC).

[mileslunn]

Well over 2,000 absentee ballots were counted in Nanaimo and the final results are in and as expected the absentee votes padded the NDP lead by another 600 or so votes. Final results are:

Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)     - 12,114 (49.88%)
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)       -  9,691 (39.90%)
Michele Ney (BC Green)       -  1,783 (7.34%)
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  -     491 (2.02%)
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  -     112 (0.46%)
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        -      96 (0.40%)
TOTAL Votes CAST 24,287

The turnout ended up being very high for a byelection and was only down about 3,000 votes from the last general election.

In BC, I've generally found Advanced polls favour BC Liberals, but absentee ballots always favour NDP.  While not sure the reason, I believe absentee ballots are most commonly used by public servants who vote at work particularly public school teachers and that group off course tends to favour the NDP.  For advanced polls it tends to be more business types who are away on business travel or seniors especially in colder months who are travelling and those two tend to lean BC Liberals.

On results I would say good for NDP as they won and increased vote share which is rare for a governing party.  But also good for BC Liberals as they saw a bigger jump in support than NDP and best performance here since 2005 using current boundaries.  Disaster for Greens as it seems progressive Greens are flocking to NDP as they are best party to block a BC Liberal win while dissatisfied BC Liberals who went Green in 2017 since they couldn't stomach voting NDP, but felt BC Liberals overstayed their welcome have returned to the BC Liberals.  Also disastrous for BC Conservatives as centre-right voters I think realize BC Liberals are only party who can beat NDP.  My prediction is next election will be more of a traditional two way race and wouldn't be surprised if both NDP and BC Liberals see their share of the popular vote go up while Greens drop back to usual 8-10% range.  Lets remember in 1979, 1983, 1986, 2005, and 2009, NDP got a larger share of the popular vote than they did in 2017 yet lost in those ones due to strong two way races.  On the other hand got a lower share in 1972 and 1996 but won a majority as non-NDP vote was more divided.

[mileslunn]

There should be a lot of potential for the BC Conservatives. There is long history of rightwing populism there what with Social Credit and Reform etc...(much more so than in Ontario) and there is certainly room to fill on the right wing of the political spectrum. The BC Liberals have yet another federal Liberal as their leader and on top of that Wilkinson is the epitome of a stuffy upper class elitist twit who is a Rhodes scholar and a doctor and a lawyer! And the BC Liberals created the carbon tax.

If the BC Cons ever got their act together and had a decent leader they could easily run as an anti-carbon tax, politically incorrect party of rednecks and get quite a few votes. 

Had PR passed, I think you would be bang on and surprised more right wingers didn't support it as it is not inconceivable somewhere down the road BC Liberals + BC Conservatives could get over 50% in which case they would pull the BC Liberals rightward.

However, strongest support for those policies comes from the over 50 crowd and they remember how the BC Reform Party getting 8% in 1996 split the right wing vote allowing the NDP to win so want to avoid that happening again.  Also many remember the 90s how vote splitting on the right allowed the Liberals federally to easily win without a challenge and more recently how vote splitting on the right helped the NDP in Alberta.  So most over 50 on the right realize only when right is united they can win and thus will support whichever party has the best chance on the right.  Lets remember elections today are less about voting for a party, they are more about keeping out who you dislike.  Left also unites but since in most provinces save Alberta and maybe Saskatchewan, there are more on the left than right so they can risk splits as long as not too big whereas right doesn't have this luxury. 

Interestingly enough Mainstreet research shows BC Conservative strongest amongst millennials even though that is the group where there is least amount of support for such policies and I believe that is because most weren't old enough to remember 1996 whereas boomers do remember it.

[mileslunn]

This was the absentee vote result


Votes: 2,877
Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) 1,576
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)   1,026
Michele Ney (BC Green)      204
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  49
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  12
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        10

I've noticed since 2005, the NDP always does better on absentee ballots than election day ones and so final count always improves things for them.  Any idea why that happens?  My thinking is higher participation of public sector workers in particular since schools often have polling stations many teachers at lunch and staff would vote at the school they work it which may not be in their riding or polling place.  Not sure if this reason but that would be my guess, would be interested if anybody knows the reason as rather than randomly favouring the other party, it seems about 80-90% of the time NDP does better on absentee ballots than election day ones (yes BC Liberals do win absentee ballots in many ridings, but those are ridings they win by large margins to begin with and usually their margin on the absentee ballot is smaller than general election day).

[mileslunn]

Interestingly enough Mainstreet research shows BC Conservative strongest amongst millennials even though that is the group where there is least amount of support for such policies and I believe that is because most weren't old enough to remember 1996 whereas boomers do remember it.

Wondering if it also reflects a generic younger-person inclination t/w parties other than the "big two"...

Could be, certainly in Europe, millennials tend to gravitate towards non-traditional parties regardless of where they stand on spectrum while in US, at least in democratic primaries you see a strong trend towards favouring outsiders.  I think many millennials since they fear not doing as well as their parent's generation therefore feel the parties who brought that need to be punished and they need to try something different.

[mileslunn]

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

I am surprised they are that high considering how extreme they are, but would be interesting if they do that well.  Saw lots of signs for them on various properties though.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts are as follows:

Burnaby South

Liberals  Ideally a win is what they want, but in a way a loss might be a blessing in disguise as Singh would stay on as leader unless the Tories pull off an upset and the general view (I am not sure it is necessarily true) is that Singh is a weak leader and will stay low in the polls come election thus a united left.

Conservatives If not a win at least a strong second.  If the CPC + PPC vote exceeds the winner expect the party to move to the right to try and push the PPC down as they can ill afford these splits in a general election.

NDP  A win or Singh is gone although its possible a leadership race might be build more interest and excitement and help the party a bit in the polls.  I think the biggest lift they would get is if the NDP somehow miracously is re-elected in Alberta which while unlikely it is not impossible by any means.

PPC  Get in double digits and have the CPC lose while the CPC + PPC exceeds the winner.  This will push the CPC rightward which is ultimately what the PPC supporters really want.

Outremont

Liberals Win and win big.  To make up for expected losses in ROC, they need to gain in Quebec and this area went heavily PLQ last provincial election and was traditionally a safe Liberal riding so if they lose or barely scrape by may have to go back to the drawing board and work harder on holding everything they have in ROC.

Tories  Get their deposit back although considering how badly the CAQ did here despite winning, this unlike in the suburbs and regions of Quebec really says little about the Tory prospects in Quebec.

NDP  If not a win at least a strong second which shows despite polling they might have chances in other areas, especially areas the QS did well provincially, which was not here.

BQ Get in the double digits as polls suggest a bump with the new leader but the BQ has never won this not even in good elections such as 1993 or 2004.

York-Simcoe

Liberals Get over 30% as usually when Liberals get over 30% here, they usually win overall nationally and provincially.  When in the 20s they go to opposition and when under 20% usually fall to third place. 

Tories Get at least 50% since this is one of the most Conservative ridings in Ontario so when they get under 50%, it usually is a poor showing overall.  Over 60% is a great showing as that usually means a strong majority.

NDP Get over 10% to get their deposit back which I don't think they will do.  Nonetheless the Tories probably want NDP and Greens to do well here as while it won't likely matter here, in the 905 suburbs where things are more competitive, a stronger NDP and Green showing while weaker PPC showing improves their odds while for Liberals, the weaker the NDP and Greens while stronger the PPC is, the better their odds are in the neighbouring suburban ones they currently hold.

[mileslunn]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet has tweeted the following, which while always very skeptical of riding polls all of these seem plausible and would be more or less what I would personally expect.

Liberals

Win Outremont comfortably, slightly behind but still competitive in Burnaby South, while unlikely to win York-Simcoe, but could potentially match their 37% they got in 2015 which would be doable but on the high side.

Tories

CPC still in the running in Burnaby South and judging from his tweet on PPC, could very well have a result where CPC + PPC exceeds winner.  Expected to hold York-Simcoe although if PPC does better than expected could fall below 50% (seems to indicate though right wing vote will exceed 50%), while a non-factor in Outremont.

NDP 

Still favoured in Burnaby South, should come in a distant second in Outremont while distant third in York-Simcoe.

BQ will remain in third in Outremont behind NDP, PPC around 10% give or take a few points in Burnaby South, while not a factor in York-Simcoe overall but could get enough to push CPC below 50%.  Greens will be a close fourth in York-Simcoe while non-factor in Outremont and not running in Burnaby South.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts are as follows:

Burnaby South

Liberals  Ideally a win is what they want, but in a way a loss might be a blessing in disguise as Singh would stay on as leader unless the Tories pull off an upset and the general view (I am not sure it is necessarily true) is that Singh is a weak leader and will stay low in the polls come election thus a united left.

This theory has been floated before but I think its just self-serving Liberal spin. It would be one thing if there was some "heir apparent" to Singh waiting in the wings who was fluently bilingual and charismatic and brilliant and all set to sweep the country...but no such person exists (if they did exist they would be leader in the first place). I suppose it is "possible" that if the NDP was forced to get an also-ran from the last contest to step in at the last minute with the party in total disarray that person could turn things around. But its also "possible" than once he gets into the house and has a chance to raise his profile and better introduce himself to Canadians, Singh could turn out to be a far better campaigner than people give him credit for. He certainly wouldsnt be the first opposition party leader who was initially written off by the media who turned out to do well with voters (hello Jean Chretien, Jack Layton, Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau etc...)

Agreed Singh could outperform expectations and I think this is more what Liberals are thinking not necessarily what will happen.  Nonetheless he starts with negative perceptions but off course things could improve as people see him more.  Nathan Cullen and Charlie Angus I think would do a bit better, Guy Caron probably wouldn't do any better in English Canada but at least would be the best one for trying to hold as many Quebec seats as possible.  Niki Ashton would probably do worse although who knows maybe the era of being moderate is over and people prefer more ideologically driven leaders, but still skeptical.

[mileslunn]

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

The skeptic in me is wondering if this is merely disinformation being pushed by anti-CPC forces with the purpose of persuading would-be Conservative voters to cast a tactical vote for a losing candidate.

Quite possibly.  Sort of like the Bernie or bust in the US, you have some on the right who won't accept anything short of purity so there hope is split the vote enough the Tories lose and then put in a more right wing replacement.  The PPC doing well here gives them legitimacy thus more likely to happen.

[mileslunn]

So far I would say things are largely turning out as expected.

Liberals: Fairly decent showing.  Up in Outremont, down a bit in York-Simcoe but still north of 30% and usually when Liberals get above 30% there they form government.  Burnaby South underperforming a bit.

Conservatives: Not horrible, but not the kind of numbers that would suggest they are on their way to forming government.  Getting just north of 50% in York-Simcoe so similar to 2015 although surprisingly it is the minor PC Party not People's Party who is splitting the vote.  Outremont getting trashed as expected.  Burnaby South also doing poorly although with People's Party having a well known candidate that seems to be eating into them unlike other two ridings.

NDP: Actually not too bad a night.  Winning Burnaby South by an increased margin and in Outremont still a solid second and over 25% so not totally cratering.  Getting trashed in York-Simcoe as expected.

Bloc Quebecois: No bump, but Outremont not exactly a BQ friendly.

Green Party: A fairly decent night as double digits in Outremont so showing some support there.

People's Party: Getting trashed in York-Simcoe and Outremont so doesn't look like a major threat for vote splitting.  Doing reasonably well in Burnaby South, but could be due to high profile candidate so not sure enough to create a wave for them.

[mileslunn]

Outremont 160/170 polls
Liberal 40-28-13-10-6

A high profile NDP candidate here probably could have made this a very close race.

Also bodes well for holding Rosemont-La Petite Patrie and maybe other east end Montreal ridings as this area went heavily for the PLQ and I suspect much of the NDP support will come from QS voters provincially whose support was strongest on the east end.

[mileslunn]

My final thoughts are:

Liberals: A decent but not great night.  They did regain Outremont, although the win was not as big as many expected, still a win is a win.  In York-Simcoe took a bit of a hit and sort of right on the dividing point as usually when Liberals get over 30% there, they win, when they get below they lose so fell just shy of the 30% mark.  A not so good showing in Burnaby South, but not a total disaster either as results there similar to the Martin/Chretien era when they got 5-9 seats in BC, but not as disastrous as in the Dion/Ignatieff era when they did much worse there.

Tories: Okay showing, but even though some polls suggest they are in the lead, the numbers last night don't seem to allude to that.  Up in York-Simcoe and won big there, but that is a safe Tory riding so to be expected.  Had they gotten over 60% there it might be more newsworthy.  For comparison they got 4 points more than 2015 while 3 points less than Caroline Mulroney did provincially so much like Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes better than 2015, worse than provincially 2018 so suggesting more than the 33 seats won in 2015, but fewer than the 76 seats the Ontario PCs won.  In BC, fell and were hurt by the People's Party cracking double digits so while the other two ridings suggest People's Party not a huge problem overall, if they have strong known candidates it could cost them in some key ones.  Did poorly in Outremont as expected.

NDP:  Actually a fairly decent night at least relative to expectations, but overall fairly average.  Won Burnaby South by a decent margin and Singh now has a seat.  Lost Outremont as expected, but with 26% support didn't implode as badly as polls suggest, suggesting some of the east end Island ridings which are more NDP friendly might still be winneable.  Did poorly in York-Simcoe, but never have done well there.

Green Party: Good showing in Outremont, less so in York-Simcoe so based on that and provincial results suggest they can pull off strong results with the right candidate but still have a long ways to go before being a major contender.

BQ: Polls suggest a bounce due to new leader, but results in Outremont suggest otherwise.  Mind you this riding was never that friendly to the BQ to begin with so probably not the best indicator.

PPC:  Strong showing in Burnaby South but bombed the other two.  That suggests they can damage the Tories and cost them seats if they have strong candidates, but with generic ones the Tories have little to worry about and thus only if a superclose election could they play spoiler.

[mileslunn]

I guess the NDP put most of their resources into Burnaby, and had to sacrifice Outremont, but as I kept saying a long time ago, the riding is still winnable, even in this environment. It used to be the party's best riding before they made their breakthrough with Mulcair. It's one of the least 'racist' ridings in the province, and is quite federalist, and has a progressive tint. Sure, it has a Liberal tradition, but it still backed Valerie Plante in the Montreal mayoral race over Denis Coderre.

I would say that is generally true, although I think Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie is even more favourable to the NDP.  After all this area went heavily for the PLQ last provincial election despite their terrible results while QS did well on the East Island but less so here.  Now unlike other provinces, Quebec's provincial elections are a different beast so you cannot automatically assume those who voted CAQ will go Conservative, PLQ Liberal, QS NDP, and PQ BQ, its a bit more complicated but it can at least give one an idea of the ideological orientations as the 2018 provincial election was probably the first since the Quiet Revolution fought more on philosophical orientation as opposed to separatism vs. federalism.

[mileslunn]

I suspect this should be an interesting Green/NDP race.  Greens are strong in Greater Victoria area so this will be test if they can move further up the Island.  Liberals have never been strong here so don't expect them to pick this up.  Tories in theory could win, but they would need very strong splits.  Yes they got 40% in 2011 in this riding, but they are nowhere near 2011 levels in BC, so I would say 30% is probably their ceiling or low 30s and I could just as easily see them staying in the 20s or maybe even teens if some vote tactically.

[mileslunn]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

[mileslunn]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

I agree that d'Entremont has the best chance. Interestingly the reverse can be said for the seats they vacated?

What's wrong with Houston. And why is it Cape Breton MLAs that dislike him - add Paon's issues too, although that's mostly her fault.

I think PCs will probably hold all three simply due to how unpopular McNeil is.  Lets remember McNeil's approval ratings now are comparable to Wynne and Selinger at the time of both of their defeats and with by-elections having low turnouts, usually those mad at the government are more motivated to show up than those happy with them.

[mileslunn]

NDP MLA Lenore Zann was elected as a Liberal MP for Cumberland-Colchester, prompting her resignation provincially. We should have a by-election for her Truro-Bible Hill--Millbrook-Salmon River seat in the next several months. Should be an interesting test for all three major parties.

By-elections to be aslo held in:
Regina Walsh Acres (new Conservative MP for Regina-Lewvan)
Saskatoon Eastview (new Conservative MP for Saskatoon-University)

Those based on past by-elections look like easy NDP pick ups, but after federal election and with anger at Trudeau tough to say.  I do think for Ryan Meilli, Trudeau being re-elected dramatically reduced his odds of winning.  Both UCP in Alberta and Saskatchewan Party are popular as people in both provinces hate Trudeau and those two are seen as standing up to him whereas had Tories won, more focus on their own records and couldn't use feds as whipping boy.

[mileslunn]

Anybody know when in New Brunswick, Saint Croix by-election will be held.  With the death of Greg Thompson I am guessing the PCs will want to call one before the budget unless they are hoping for an election.  At this point Blaine Higgs has reasonably good poll numbers although often local candidates play an outsized role in Atlantic Canada, but unless Liberals can find a star candidate, probably stays PC.  Greens not particularly strong in this area, while PANB has lost a fair bit never mind is more in the middle parts of the province, the southern parts are more solidly PC.

[mileslunn]

Anybody know when in New Brunswick, Saint Croix by-election will be held.  With the death of Greg Thompson I am guessing the PCs will want to call one before the budget unless they are hoping for an election.  At this point Blaine Higgs has reasonably good poll numbers although often local candidates play an outsized role in Atlantic Canada, but unless Liberals can find a star candidate, probably stays PC.  Greens not particularly strong in this area, while PANB has lost a fair bit never mind is more in the middle parts of the province, the southern parts are more solidly PC.

No clue, but seems it will be at the same time as Shediac Bay (caused by the resignation of Brian Gallant, former Premier).

That makes sense as balance of power the same.  Liberals should easily hold Shediac Bay.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

Do you think they should be a social liberal party against the cultural conservatism of the CAQ and the socialism of the PQ/QS?

That would seem the logical solution and normally the centre is where elections are won and lost.  Problem is it seems globally and increasingly in Canada you are getting stronger left/right polarization.  All provinces west of Ontario have a centre-right vs. NDP while federally Liberals only survived by moving into NDP territory so it should in theory work.  But there is a question are we still centrists or with most going to echo chambers, are we becoming more polarized with a hollowed out middle.