Canadian by-elections, 2019

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The Libertarian candidate got 22 votes in the last 4 polls, only got 1 vote in the first 7 polls.

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FYI:

Polls close at 9:30 ET (6:30 PT) (for York–Simcoe and Outremont)
Polls close at 7:00 PT (10:00 ET) (for Burnaby South)

- I believe Elections Canada (TV Networks) can start broadcasting results once the polls close in Ontario and Quebec, previously they had to wait all the polls closed. However there is only a 30 minute window between the closing times anyway. You won't get any real results in the first 30 minutes anywhere (expect for for odd special poll)

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Does John Turmel have a shot in winning in York-Simcoe?

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First Polls in

York-Simcoe: Consv - 55%, Lib 32%

Outremont: Lib, 75%, NDP 15%

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The PC Party leading the People's Party (currently in 6th) in York-Simcoe

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Weird:
 # polls reporting  for Burnaby went from 5 to 4, and so did the vote totals

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CBC Projects, Conservatives to take York-Simcoe.
Liberals to take Outremont

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CBC projects Jagmeet Singh to win Burnaby South

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Outremont 130 polls
Liberal 41-27-13-10-6

Burnaby South 145 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11

Burnaby starting counting 30 minutes later than the other 2 ridings but have more polls reporting, however they do have 196 polls vs 136/170.

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Turnout approching 30% in Burnaby, and 20% in York-Simcoe and Outremont

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How would a ranked ballot play out in Burnaby?

There could a good chance the Conservatives (who finished 3rd) could have taken the riding.


NDP     38.8%
LIB       26.1%
CONSV  22.7%
PPC    10.7%
INDs       1.6%

After the Inds and People's Party are dropped out.

You might have:

NDP  40%
Consv  33%
Liberal: 27%

Could the Conservative's take about 2/3 of the Liberal vote?

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Final Results from Burnaby South

Independent   Terry Grimwood   240   1.1 %   
Liberal   Richard T. Lee   5,930   26.0 %   
Conservative   Jay Shin   5,133   22.5 %   
NDP- Jagmeet Singh   8,884   39.0 %   
People's Party   Laura-Lynn Thompson   2,420   10.6 %   
Independent   Valentine Wu   169   0.7 %

Scot Davidson (8, 929 votes) did manage to win the raw vote tonight over Jahmeet Singh (8,884). Davidson had a 67 vote lead with 2 polls remaining in Burnaby, however the last 2 polls must have come from special polls which only accounted a total of 65 votes from the 2 polls.

Burnaby had their polls counted quicker.