Canadian by-elections, 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Okay this is the viewpoint of an outsider so grain of salt, but if the PPC perform well here (Like let's say 20% or so), wouldn't that give them a sort of "legitimacy" of sorts and make them seem like a viable option to would-be supporters who are currently sticking with the Tories?

If they broke 20% it would be big news and would likely result in them being treated more seriously by the media and current Tory voters alike. That's a big, big if though. Burnaby is not exactly a right wing stronghold, so 20% for the People's Party would require a Tory collapse and/or a weird migration of the "promiscuous progressive" vote.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

BS-High Schoolers(?):PPC 31%, NDP 27%, LPC 18%, CPC 11%, OTH 13%

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to be clear, I'm pretty skeptical but it isn't like we're going to get any real riding polls so we'll see how this compares to the results

[adma]

BS-High Schoolers(?):PPC 31%, NDP 27%, LPC 18%, CPC 11%, OTH 13%

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to be clear, I'm pretty skeptical but it isn't like we're going to get any real riding polls so we'll see how this compares to the results

Poll conducted *utilizing* local students.  (You made it sound like it was a Student Vote poll)

Actually, I've been sort of wondering out loud whether PPC was poised for second place behiund Singh.  (First would be an earthquake.)

[Jeppe]

The reason why the PPC seems to be doing well in Burnaby-South is because their party's candidate is a well-known anti-transgender rights activist in the community, which seems to be appealing to a large section of the Chinese-Canadian population in this plurality Chinese-Canadian riding.

Thompson got like 30% of the municipal election's vote last year so she's running on her own brand in this by-election, not Bernier's. The fundamental reality is that Bernier's overall strategy doesn't align with what seems to be working in this riding, which is appealing to immigrants via going hard-right on LGBT issues.

It's not a coincidence that the PPC is non-existent in the other 2 by-elections happening on Monday, in significantly whiter ridings. Bernier's current message has little appeal to white voters because the Conservatives are already doing a fine job appealing to the less "racially-woke" aspects of the electorate. At the end of the day, the conservative white voters that Bernier is so desperately pining for care more about the oil & gas sector than immigrants.

All that's really up for grabs from the Conservatives are the religious and social conservatives who feel that the CPC is leaving them behind on issues of gay marriage, transgender and abortion rights, but that group is probably more diverse than the country at large because of the influence of both culture and church in many East Asian immigrant communities in Canada. However, if Bernier spends his entire time rallying against immigrants, it's hard to see them embracing him like they did to Ford in Ontario last year.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

BS-High Schoolers(?):PPC 31%, NDP 27%, LPC 18%, CPC 11%, OTH 13%

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to be clear, I'm pretty skeptical but it isn't like we're going to get any real riding polls so we'll see how this compares to the results

Poll conducted *utilizing* local students.  (You made it sound like it was a Student Vote poll)

I used the standard US Election Atlas poll format, so "high schoolers" occupied the polling firm field (since it was apparently conducted by high schoolers).

The reason why the PPC seems to be doing well in Burnaby-South is because their party's candidate is a well-known anti-transgender rights activist in the community, which seems to be appealing to a large section of the Chinese-Canadian population in this plurality Chinese-Canadian riding.

Thompson got like 30% of the municipal election's vote last year so she's running on her own brand in this by-election, not Bernier's. The fundamental reality is that Bernier's overall strategy doesn't align with what seems to be working in this riding, which is appealing to immigrants via going hard-right on LGBT issues.

It's not a coincidence that the PPC is non-existent in the other 2 by-elections happening on Monday, in significantly whiter ridings. Bernier's current message has little appeal to white voters because the Conservatives are already doing a fine job appealing to the less "racially-woke" aspects of the electorate. At the end of the day, the conservative white voters that Bernier is so desperately pining for care more about the oil & gas sector than immigrants.

All that's really up for grabs from the Conservatives are the religious and social conservatives who feel that the CPC is leaving them behind on issues of gay marriage, transgender and abortion rights, but that group is probably more diverse than the country at large because of the influence of both culture and church in many East Asian immigrant communities in Canada. However, if Bernier spends his entire time rallying against immigrants, it's hard to see them embracing him like they did to Ford in Ontario last year.

Partly. You're missing arguably the biggest factor though. The PPC candidate actually was known for getting coffee thrown at her while protesting about the Marrissa Shen case, so she had some Chinese street cred even without her SoCon positions. Somewhat counterintuitively, opposition to
more immigration can be appealing to recent immigrants.

[ON Progressive]

Ah, this is the most peak Atlas discussion I have ever seen.

Do people seriously believe some random in Ontario would have any evidence of the PPC polling 20% in Burnaby South? And why do we care about a poll of "high school students" of 288 people?

[trebor204]

FYI:

Polls close at 9:30 ET (6:30 PT) (for York–Simcoe and Outremont)
Polls close at 7:00 PT (10:00 ET) (for Burnaby South)

- I believe Elections Canada (TV Networks) can start broadcasting results once the polls close in Ontario and Quebec, previously they had to wait all the polls closed. However there is only a 30 minute window between the closing times anyway. You won't get any real results in the first 30 minutes anywhere (expect for for odd special poll)

[Poirot]

Does immigration / multiculturalism fall in the socially conservative category ? I was going to say maybe the People's party candidate in Burnaby is socially conservative but Bernier and probably what he wants his party to be is not. I was thinking on issues like abortion, same sex marriage, marijuana.

For Outremiont, a former NDP strategist says if the NDP finishes with a strong second place, that would already be a win for the party.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ndp-byelection-outremont-1.5028818

He doesn't give a percentage result I'm thinking around 25% would be a good result. It's more than half of the score in the last election and there is no leader, or well known person boost. The party is polling less than half of the result province wide.  Mainstreet Research had the NDP at 13% on the island of Montreal in last week's poll with presumably a large margin of error, so 25% would be double that number. In his last projection qc125 website has the NDP below 20% in Outremont, with the margin could be low 20s. The article talks about the environment being a concern for some voters. The Greens are running a well known environmentalist. He had a good result in the Saint-Laurent byelection, the party seems to be polling higher than before so he could do well.

[DC Al Fine]

Ah, this is the most peak Atlas discussion I have ever seen.

Do people seriously believe some random in Ontario would have any evidence of the PPC polling 20% in Burnaby South? And why do we care about a poll of "high school students" of 288 people?

Agreed. That's a garbage poll among garbage polls. I can maybe see the PPC pulling high single digits because its a by election and/or local factors, but 30% is ridiculous. *Prepares to eat crow tonight*

Does immigration / multiculturalism fall in the socially conservative category ? I was going to say maybe the People's party candidate in Burnaby is socially conservative but Bernier and probably what he wants his party to be is not. I was thinking on issues like abortion, same sex marriage, marijuana.

For Outremiont, a former NDP strategist says if the NDP finishes with a strong second place, that would already be a win for the party.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ndp-byelection-outremont-1.5028818

He doesn't give a percentage result I'm thinking around 25% would be a good result. It's more than half of the score in the last election and there is no leader, or well known person boost. The party is polling less than half of the result province wide.  Mainstreet Research had the NDP at 13% on the island of Montreal in last week's poll with presumably a large margin of error, so 25% would be double that number. In his last projection qc125 website has the NDP below 20% in Outremont, with the margin could be low 20s. The article talks about the environment being a concern for some voters. The Greens are running a well known environmentalist. He had a good result in the Saint-Laurent byelection, the party seems to be polling higher than before so he could do well.

Bernier's reception has been quite cool in my social conservative circle due to his personal libertarianism. YMMV

[mileslunn]

My thoughts are as follows:

Burnaby South

Liberals  Ideally a win is what they want, but in a way a loss might be a blessing in disguise as Singh would stay on as leader unless the Tories pull off an upset and the general view (I am not sure it is necessarily true) is that Singh is a weak leader and will stay low in the polls come election thus a united left.

Conservatives If not a win at least a strong second.  If the CPC + PPC vote exceeds the winner expect the party to move to the right to try and push the PPC down as they can ill afford these splits in a general election.

NDP  A win or Singh is gone although its possible a leadership race might be build more interest and excitement and help the party a bit in the polls.  I think the biggest lift they would get is if the NDP somehow miracously is re-elected in Alberta which while unlikely it is not impossible by any means.

PPC  Get in double digits and have the CPC lose while the CPC + PPC exceeds the winner.  This will push the CPC rightward which is ultimately what the PPC supporters really want.

Outremont

Liberals Win and win big.  To make up for expected losses in ROC, they need to gain in Quebec and this area went heavily PLQ last provincial election and was traditionally a safe Liberal riding so if they lose or barely scrape by may have to go back to the drawing board and work harder on holding everything they have in ROC.

Tories  Get their deposit back although considering how badly the CAQ did here despite winning, this unlike in the suburbs and regions of Quebec really says little about the Tory prospects in Quebec.

NDP  If not a win at least a strong second which shows despite polling they might have chances in other areas, especially areas the QS did well provincially, which was not here.

BQ Get in the double digits as polls suggest a bump with the new leader but the BQ has never won this not even in good elections such as 1993 or 2004.

York-Simcoe

Liberals Get over 30% as usually when Liberals get over 30% here, they usually win overall nationally and provincially.  When in the 20s they go to opposition and when under 20% usually fall to third place. 

Tories Get at least 50% since this is one of the most Conservative ridings in Ontario so when they get under 50%, it usually is a poor showing overall.  Over 60% is a great showing as that usually means a strong majority.

NDP Get over 10% to get their deposit back which I don't think they will do.  Nonetheless the Tories probably want NDP and Greens to do well here as while it won't likely matter here, in the 905 suburbs where things are more competitive, a stronger NDP and Green showing while weaker PPC showing improves their odds while for Liberals, the weaker the NDP and Greens while stronger the PPC is, the better their odds are in the neighbouring suburban ones they currently hold.

[DL]

My thoughts are as follows:

Burnaby South

Liberals  Ideally a win is what they want, but in a way a loss might be a blessing in disguise as Singh would stay on as leader unless the Tories pull off an upset and the general view (I am not sure it is necessarily true) is that Singh is a weak leader and will stay low in the polls come election thus a united left.

This theory has been floated before but I think its just self-serving Liberal spin. It would be one thing if there was some "heir apparent" to Singh waiting in the wings who was fluently bilingual and charismatic and brilliant and all set to sweep the country...but no such person exists (if they did exist they would be leader in the first place). I suppose it is "possible" that if the NDP was forced to get an also-ran from the last contest to step in at the last minute with the party in total disarray that person could turn things around. But its also "possible" than once he gets into the house and has a chance to raise his profile and better introduce himself to Canadians, Singh could turn out to be a far better campaigner than people give him credit for. He certainly wouldsnt be the first opposition party leader who was initially written off by the media who turned out to do well with voters (hello Jean Chretien, Jack Layton, Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau etc...)

[mileslunn]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet has tweeted the following, which while always very skeptical of riding polls all of these seem plausible and would be more or less what I would personally expect.

Liberals

Win Outremont comfortably, slightly behind but still competitive in Burnaby South, while unlikely to win York-Simcoe, but could potentially match their 37% they got in 2015 which would be doable but on the high side.

Tories

CPC still in the running in Burnaby South and judging from his tweet on PPC, could very well have a result where CPC + PPC exceeds winner.  Expected to hold York-Simcoe although if PPC does better than expected could fall below 50% (seems to indicate though right wing vote will exceed 50%), while a non-factor in Outremont.

NDP 

Still favoured in Burnaby South, should come in a distant second in Outremont while distant third in York-Simcoe.

BQ will remain in third in Outremont behind NDP, PPC around 10% give or take a few points in Burnaby South, while not a factor in York-Simcoe overall but could get enough to push CPC below 50%.  Greens will be a close fourth in York-Simcoe while non-factor in Outremont and not running in Burnaby South.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts are as follows:

Burnaby South

Liberals  Ideally a win is what they want, but in a way a loss might be a blessing in disguise as Singh would stay on as leader unless the Tories pull off an upset and the general view (I am not sure it is necessarily true) is that Singh is a weak leader and will stay low in the polls come election thus a united left.

This theory has been floated before but I think its just self-serving Liberal spin. It would be one thing if there was some "heir apparent" to Singh waiting in the wings who was fluently bilingual and charismatic and brilliant and all set to sweep the country...but no such person exists (if they did exist they would be leader in the first place). I suppose it is "possible" that if the NDP was forced to get an also-ran from the last contest to step in at the last minute with the party in total disarray that person could turn things around. But its also "possible" than once he gets into the house and has a chance to raise his profile and better introduce himself to Canadians, Singh could turn out to be a far better campaigner than people give him credit for. He certainly wouldsnt be the first opposition party leader who was initially written off by the media who turned out to do well with voters (hello Jean Chretien, Jack Layton, Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau etc...)

Agreed Singh could outperform expectations and I think this is more what Liberals are thinking not necessarily what will happen.  Nonetheless he starts with negative perceptions but off course things could improve as people see him more.  Nathan Cullen and Charlie Angus I think would do a bit better, Guy Caron probably wouldn't do any better in English Canada but at least would be the best one for trying to hold as many Quebec seats as possible.  Niki Ashton would probably do worse although who knows maybe the era of being moderate is over and people prefer more ideologically driven leaders, but still skeptical.

[Poirot]

BQ will remain in third in Outremont behind NDP

Just for information and maybe to compare, in 2015 the Bloc finished fourth with 8.4% behind CPC 9.5%. Mulcair won with 44%, LPC got 33.5%.

[BigSkyBob]

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

The skeptic in me is wondering if this is merely disinformation being pushed by anti-CPC forces with the purpose of persuading would-be Conservative voters to cast a tactical vote for a losing candidate.

[trebor204]

Does John Turmel have a shot in winning in York-Simcoe?

[mileslunn]

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

The skeptic in me is wondering if this is merely disinformation being pushed by anti-CPC forces with the purpose of persuading would-be Conservative voters to cast a tactical vote for a losing candidate.

Quite possibly.  Sort of like the Bernie or bust in the US, you have some on the right who won't accept anything short of purity so there hope is split the vote enough the Tories lose and then put in a more right wing replacement.  The PPC doing well here gives them legitimacy thus more likely to happen.

[136or142]

First poll reporting
Outremont
Liberal 61
NDP 12
Others 8

York-Simcoe
Conservative 40
Liberal 24
Others 9

[trebor204]

First Polls in

York-Simcoe: Consv - 55%, Lib 32%

Outremont: Lib, 75%, NDP 15%

[136or142]

York-Simcoe 3 polls
Conservative 105
Liberal 53
Others 36

[trebor204]

The PC Party leading the People's Party (currently in 6th) in York-Simcoe

[136or142]

Outremont 5 polls
Liberals 162
NDP 74
Green 40
B.Q 38
Conservative 20
PPC 5
Ind 3

[136or142]

York-Simcoe 8/136 polls
Conservative 51-29%

Outremont 10/170
Liberal 50-20%

[136or142]

York Simcoe 10 polls
P.C 55-27%

Outremont 15 polls
Liberal 49-19%

[136or142]

York-Simcoe 15 polls
Conservative 52-29%

Outremont 19 polls
Liberal 46-23% Green 11% B.Q 10%