Canadian by-elections, 2019

[RogueBeaver]

Burnaby: Dipper caucus has told Singh he's out if he loses.

[2952-0-0]

Expectations are so low that even when the Liberal candidate was fired over a bozo eruption, the Liberals are still favoured to win.

[MAINEiac4434]

Where’d it all go wrong for Jagmeet? He cruised to the leadership, and since then I haven’t really been paying much attention to Canadian politics. What happened? Are poll numbers that dismal?

[mileslunn]

Just drove around Burnaby South today and saw a fair number of Jagmeet Singh signs.  Surprisingly few for Richard Lee while a surprising number for the Conservatives, Jay Shin.  Andrew Scheer even visited the riding so although I would be surprised if the Tories win it, its not totally impossible but unlikely.  Surprisingly saw a fair number of PPC signs and even a burmashave at Royal Oak Station for them where they were handing out flyers.  So will be interesting to see how they do although I suspect with the success of the far right in Europe and the US, many with similar views are emboldened in Canada thus very much in your face about it, but all polling I've seen suggests fairly little support for such policies.  Certainly on social media, PPC supporters are very noticeable, but I've also noticed your anti-immigration and pro-gun types big on social media and may appear to represent the majority of Canadians even though polls show the exact opposite, thus why I think it is important to be cautious here.

That being said still another 24 days away so will check back in a couple weeks to see how things look as often at this point its more a reflection of whom gets their campaign up and running faster.  Indeed the Liberals due to last minute change in candidate may be a bit behind thus why you see fewer Liberal signs then for the Tories or NDP, or as a matter of fact I think I saw more PPC than Liberal signs (but pretty sure many more will vote Liberal than PPC).

[DL]

Well over 2,000 absentee ballots were counted in Nanaimo and the final results are in and as expected the absentee votes padded the NDP lead by another 600 or so votes. Final results are:

Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)     - 12,114 (49.88%)
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)       -  9,691 (39.90%)
Michele Ney (BC Green)       -  1,783 (7.34%)
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  -     491 (2.02%)
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  -     112 (0.46%)
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        -      96 (0.40%)
TOTAL Votes CAST 24,287

The turnout ended up being very high for a byelection and was only down about 3,000 votes from the last general election.

[mileslunn]

Well over 2,000 absentee ballots were counted in Nanaimo and the final results are in and as expected the absentee votes padded the NDP lead by another 600 or so votes. Final results are:

Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)     - 12,114 (49.88%)
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)       -  9,691 (39.90%)
Michele Ney (BC Green)       -  1,783 (7.34%)
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  -     491 (2.02%)
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  -     112 (0.46%)
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        -      96 (0.40%)
TOTAL Votes CAST 24,287

The turnout ended up being very high for a byelection and was only down about 3,000 votes from the last general election.

In BC, I've generally found Advanced polls favour BC Liberals, but absentee ballots always favour NDP.  While not sure the reason, I believe absentee ballots are most commonly used by public servants who vote at work particularly public school teachers and that group off course tends to favour the NDP.  For advanced polls it tends to be more business types who are away on business travel or seniors especially in colder months who are travelling and those two tend to lean BC Liberals.

On results I would say good for NDP as they won and increased vote share which is rare for a governing party.  But also good for BC Liberals as they saw a bigger jump in support than NDP and best performance here since 2005 using current boundaries.  Disaster for Greens as it seems progressive Greens are flocking to NDP as they are best party to block a BC Liberal win while dissatisfied BC Liberals who went Green in 2017 since they couldn't stomach voting NDP, but felt BC Liberals overstayed their welcome have returned to the BC Liberals.  Also disastrous for BC Conservatives as centre-right voters I think realize BC Liberals are only party who can beat NDP.  My prediction is next election will be more of a traditional two way race and wouldn't be surprised if both NDP and BC Liberals see their share of the popular vote go up while Greens drop back to usual 8-10% range.  Lets remember in 1979, 1983, 1986, 2005, and 2009, NDP got a larger share of the popular vote than they did in 2017 yet lost in those ones due to strong two way races.  On the other hand got a lower share in 1972 and 1996 but won a majority as non-NDP vote was more divided.

[adma]

In BC, I've generally found Advanced polls favour BC Liberals, but absentee ballots always favour NDP.  While not sure the reason, I believe absentee ballots are most commonly used by public servants who vote at work particularly public school teachers and that group off course tends to favour the NDP.  For advanced polls it tends to be more business types who are away on business travel or seniors especially in colder months who are travelling and those two tend to lean BC Liberals.

One thing I found in last year's Ontario election is that the PCs *and* NDP were advance-poll beneficiaries--and in the NDP's case, I think there's a trend among the younger urban politically-engaged class t/w "selfie voting" for the sake of posting "I voted" on social media; and doing so in advance is an emblem of one's being *really* committed to exercising one's franchise, like somehow, waiting for e-day is "slacking", or something.  (Personally, I prefer e-day, because then I show up in the poll-by-polls.)

Thus, in a riding like Davenport which went 60% NDP, the advance polls gave the NDP something like 3/4 of the vote.

[136or142]

Where’d it all go wrong for Jagmeet? He cruised to the leadership, and since then I haven’t really been paying much attention to Canadian politics. What happened? Are poll numbers that dismal?

Things can change in a few months.  Jagmeet hasn't Singhed yet. 

[136or142]

Well over 2,000 absentee ballots were counted in Nanaimo and the final results are in and as expected the absentee votes padded the NDP lead by another 600 or so votes. Final results are:

Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)     - 12,114 (49.88%)
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)       -  9,691 (39.90%)
Michele Ney (BC Green)       -  1,783 (7.34%)
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  -     491 (2.02%)
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  -     112 (0.46%)
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        -      96 (0.40%)
TOTAL Votes CAST 24,287

The turnout ended up being very high for a byelection and was only down about 3,000 votes from the last general election.

In BC, I've generally found Advanced polls favour BC Liberals, but absentee ballots always favour NDP.  While not sure the reason, I believe absentee ballots are most commonly used by public servants who vote at work particularly public school teachers and that group off course tends to favour the NDP.  For advanced polls it tends to be more business types who are away on business travel or seniors especially in colder months who are travelling and those two tend to lean BC Liberals.

On results I would say good for NDP as they won and increased vote share which is rare for a governing party.  But also good for BC Liberals as they saw a bigger jump in support than NDP and best performance here since 2005 using current boundaries.  Disaster for Greens as it seems progressive Greens are flocking to NDP as they are best party to block a BC Liberal win while dissatisfied BC Liberals who went Green in 2017 since they couldn't stomach voting NDP, but felt BC Liberals overstayed their welcome have returned to the BC Liberals.  Also disastrous for BC Conservatives as centre-right voters I think realize BC Liberals are only party who can beat NDP.  My prediction is next election will be more of a traditional two way race and wouldn't be surprised if both NDP and BC Liberals see their share of the popular vote go up while Greens drop back to usual 8-10% range.  Lets remember in 1979, 1983, 1986, 2005, and 2009, NDP got a larger share of the popular vote than they did in 2017 yet lost in those ones due to strong two way races.  On the other hand got a lower share in 1972 and 1996 but won a majority as non-NDP vote was more divided.

I think it's too soon to say with the Conservatives.  The party has been a mess for a few years and doesn't even have a permanent leader.

[136or142]

This was the absentee vote result


Votes: 2,877
Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) 1,576
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)   1,026
Michele Ney (BC Green)      204
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  49
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  12
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        10

[DL]

There should be a lot of potential for the BC Conservatives. There is long history of rightwing populism there what with Social Credit and Reform etc...(much more so than in Ontario) and there is certainly room to fill on the right wing of the political spectrum. The BC Liberals have yet another federal Liberal as their leader and on top of that Wilkinson is the epitome of a stuffy upper class elitist twit who is a Rhodes scholar and a doctor and a lawyer! And the BC Liberals created the carbon tax.

If the BC Cons ever got their act together and had a decent leader they could easily run as an anti-carbon tax, politically incorrect party of rednecks and get quite a few votes. 

[mileslunn]

There should be a lot of potential for the BC Conservatives. There is long history of rightwing populism there what with Social Credit and Reform etc...(much more so than in Ontario) and there is certainly room to fill on the right wing of the political spectrum. The BC Liberals have yet another federal Liberal as their leader and on top of that Wilkinson is the epitome of a stuffy upper class elitist twit who is a Rhodes scholar and a doctor and a lawyer! And the BC Liberals created the carbon tax.

If the BC Cons ever got their act together and had a decent leader they could easily run as an anti-carbon tax, politically incorrect party of rednecks and get quite a few votes. 

Had PR passed, I think you would be bang on and surprised more right wingers didn't support it as it is not inconceivable somewhere down the road BC Liberals + BC Conservatives could get over 50% in which case they would pull the BC Liberals rightward.

However, strongest support for those policies comes from the over 50 crowd and they remember how the BC Reform Party getting 8% in 1996 split the right wing vote allowing the NDP to win so want to avoid that happening again.  Also many remember the 90s how vote splitting on the right allowed the Liberals federally to easily win without a challenge and more recently how vote splitting on the right helped the NDP in Alberta.  So most over 50 on the right realize only when right is united they can win and thus will support whichever party has the best chance on the right.  Lets remember elections today are less about voting for a party, they are more about keeping out who you dislike.  Left also unites but since in most provinces save Alberta and maybe Saskatchewan, there are more on the left than right so they can risk splits as long as not too big whereas right doesn't have this luxury. 

Interestingly enough Mainstreet research shows BC Conservative strongest amongst millennials even though that is the group where there is least amount of support for such policies and I believe that is because most weren't old enough to remember 1996 whereas boomers do remember it.

[mileslunn]

This was the absentee vote result


Votes: 2,877
Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) 1,576
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)   1,026
Michele Ney (BC Green)      204
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  49
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  12
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        10

I've noticed since 2005, the NDP always does better on absentee ballots than election day ones and so final count always improves things for them.  Any idea why that happens?  My thinking is higher participation of public sector workers in particular since schools often have polling stations many teachers at lunch and staff would vote at the school they work it which may not be in their riding or polling place.  Not sure if this reason but that would be my guess, would be interested if anybody knows the reason as rather than randomly favouring the other party, it seems about 80-90% of the time NDP does better on absentee ballots than election day ones (yes BC Liberals do win absentee ballots in many ridings, but those are ridings they win by large margins to begin with and usually their margin on the absentee ballot is smaller than general election day).

[136or142]

There should be a lot of potential for the BC Conservatives. There is long history of rightwing populism there what with Social Credit and Reform etc...(much more so than in Ontario) and there is certainly room to fill on the right wing of the political spectrum. The BC Liberals have yet another federal Liberal as their leader and on top of that Wilkinson is the epitome of a stuffy upper class elitist twit who is a Rhodes scholar and a doctor and a lawyer! And the BC Liberals created the carbon tax.

If the BC Cons ever got their act together and had a decent leader they could easily run as an anti-carbon tax, politically incorrect party of rednecks and get quite a few votes. 

1.The B.C Conservatives went anti-carbon tax in 2013 with a relatively high profile former Conservative M.P, John Cummins, as leader, and their campaign went nowhere.  Cummins was clearly unprepared for the election campaign which he pretty much acknowledged by pointing out that he had to spend a great deal of his time fighting the B.C Conservative Party executive.  So, the evidence based on the 2013 campaign is mixed.

2.In addition to all those things about Wilkinson though, he is an extremely aggressive 'alpha male' which, based on stereotyping anyway, should make him popular with many conservatives.

[adma]

Interestingly enough Mainstreet research shows BC Conservative strongest amongst millennials even though that is the group where there is least amount of support for such policies and I believe that is because most weren't old enough to remember 1996 whereas boomers do remember it.

Wondering if it also reflects a generic younger-person inclination t/w parties other than the "big two"...

[mileslunn]

Interestingly enough Mainstreet research shows BC Conservative strongest amongst millennials even though that is the group where there is least amount of support for such policies and I believe that is because most weren't old enough to remember 1996 whereas boomers do remember it.

Wondering if it also reflects a generic younger-person inclination t/w parties other than the "big two"...

Could be, certainly in Europe, millennials tend to gravitate towards non-traditional parties regardless of where they stand on spectrum while in US, at least in democratic primaries you see a strong trend towards favouring outsiders.  I think many millennials since they fear not doing as well as their parent's generation therefore feel the parties who brought that need to be punished and they need to try something different.

[DL]

1.The B.C Conservatives went anti-carbon tax in 2013 with a relatively high profile former Conservative M.P, John Cummins, as leader, and their campaign went nowhere.  Cummins was clearly unprepared for the election campaign which he pretty much acknowledged by pointing out that he had to spend a great deal of his time fighting the B.C Conservative Party executive.  So, the evidence based on the 2013 campaign is mixed.

True, but in 2013 opposition to the carbon tax was not a rightwing "litmus test" the way it now is for conservatives in Canada. So IMHO, the BC Cons were ahead of their time in 2013. This year, the federal Tories will run a hysterical anti-carbon tax campaign across the country that may "prime the pump" for opposition to it in BC. The other thing is that Cummins himself was a very bad campaigner and was very weak. My point was that IF the BC Cons could ever get themselves a competent leader, there would be a lot of potential for them

[136or142]

1.The B.C Conservatives went anti-carbon tax in 2013 with a relatively high profile former Conservative M.P, John Cummins, as leader, and their campaign went nowhere.  Cummins was clearly unprepared for the election campaign which he pretty much acknowledged by pointing out that he had to spend a great deal of his time fighting the B.C Conservative Party executive.  So, the evidence based on the 2013 campaign is mixed.

True, but in 2013 opposition to the carbon tax was not a rightwing "litmus test" the way it now is for conservatives in Canada. So IMHO, the BC Cons were ahead of their time in 2013. This year, the federal Tories will run a hysterical anti-carbon tax campaign across the country that may "prime the pump" for opposition to it in BC. The other thing is that Cummins himself was a very bad campaigner and was very weak. My point was that IF the BC Cons could ever get themselves a competent leader, there would be a lot of potential for them

Cummins was my M.P for a number of years.  Obviously leading a political party is a step up, but he was far from 'weak.'  As I wrote previously, if Cummins hadn't have had to fight his party executive, he likely would have run a much better campaign.  I think he had just gotten over some physical ailment at the start of the campaign as well.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

[Lord Halifax]

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

Who does that benefit of the two main candidates?

[mileslunn]

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

I am surprised they are that high considering how extreme they are, but would be interesting if they do that well.  Saw lots of signs for them on various properties though.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

I am surprised they are that high considering how extreme they are, but would be interesting if they do that well.  Saw lots of signs for them on various properties though.

They might undershoot that on election day but I'm almost certain they'll heavily overperform. Shin's internals seem to match up with my source though, he wouldn't be sending out smear letters if he wasn't seeing dark clouds over his campaign. Keep an eye on Chinese voters in particular.

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate.

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now

Who does that benefit of the two main candidates?

Conventional wisdom is that if the CPC collapses then the Liberals will benefit. I still think Singh will probably win regardless.

edit: it just keeps getting better. Now Thompson is filing a formal complaint.

[DL]

If the PPC does well it can only help Jagmeet Singh. It sounds like they may get votes from socially conservative Chinese voters some of whom would have voted for the the Liberal Richard Lee as well as potential Tory voters. I don't see much (if any) NDP/PPC migration.

[DC Al Fine]

If the PPC does well it can only help Jagmeet Singh. It sounds like they may get votes from socially conservative Chinese voters some of whom would have voted for the the Liberal Richard Lee as well as potential Tory voters. I don't see much (if any) NDP/PPC migration.

Agreed, at least for Metro Vancouver. The NDP coaltion looks very different than it did in 1988-1993.

[_]

Okay this is the viewpoint of an outsider so grain of salt, but if the PPC perform well here (Like let's say 20% or so), wouldn't that give them a sort of "legitimacy" of sorts and make them seem like a viable option to would-be supporters who are currently sticking with the Tories?