Canadian by-elections, 2019

[DL]

The Ontario CCF/NDP has quite a history of being in and out of being official opposition. - they were opposition with 34 seats in 1943, then back into 3rd with 8 seats in 1945, then back to being OO with 21 seats in 1948, then back to just 3 seats in 1951. Then a series of election in the 60s and 70s where the NDP and Ontario Liberals were very close...1971: Libs 21 seats, NDP 19 1975: NDP 38 seats, Liberals 36 seats, 1977: OLP 34 seats, NDP 33 seats. In 1987 the NDP became OO to a majority Liberal government with 19 seats to 16 for the PCs, then they won in 1990, then back to third in 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2014. Now OO again with 40 seats to the OLP's derisory 7.

[adma]

Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

The Bloc was NOT a "one election wonder". The took 54 seats in 1993, but they went on to take between 40 and 50 seats in 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008. They dominated Quebec federally for almost 20 years. It wasn't until the NDP surge of 2011 that they were demolished.

I'm aware. I corrected my post to show what I mean - they were only the official opposition once - as that is what the last few posts have been referring to.

Though 1993 was really an electoral fluke thanks to the scale of Tory/NDP collapse and Reform fust falling short--and really, thanks to a finite number of viable seats, the Bloc had little or no choice but to plateau or lose ground, while Reform had more elbow room to grow.

And remember that when I'm talking about one-election wonders, I'm not simply talking about ekeing into OO for a single term, I'm talking about dramatic jumps into OO followed by dramatic falls--in which case the CCF's Ontario stints in the 40s count, but *not* Stephen Lewis in 1975, since his falling back into third in 1977 didn't involve a lot of lost ground.

Come to think of it, when it comes to the Maritimes, if we're thinking of governments as well as OO the Darrell Dexter NDP gov't in NS definitely counts--and then there's the matter of the Confederation of Regions in NB, who came from nowhere to become OO in 1991, then were wiped back off the map next election...

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

[mileslunn]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

[beesley]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

[beesley]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

I agree that d'Entremont has the best chance. Interestingly the reverse can be said for the seats they vacated?

What's wrong with Houston. And why is it Cape Breton MLAs that dislike him - add Paon's issues too, although that's mostly her fault.

[mileslunn]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

I agree that d'Entremont has the best chance. Interestingly the reverse can be said for the seats they vacated?

What's wrong with Houston. And why is it Cape Breton MLAs that dislike him - add Paon's issues too, although that's mostly her fault.

I think PCs will probably hold all three simply due to how unpopular McNeil is.  Lets remember McNeil's approval ratings now are comparable to Wynne and Selinger at the time of both of their defeats and with by-elections having low turnouts, usually those mad at the government are more motivated to show up than those happy with them.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

I agree that d'Entremont has the best chance. Interestingly the reverse can be said for the seats they vacated?

What's wrong with Houston. And why is it Cape Breton MLAs that dislike him - add Paon's issues too, although that's mostly her fault.

I would expect the Tories to retain all three resigned seats. They held them in 2009's landslide loss, so it shouldn't be hard to retain them while leading the polls.

As for the Cape Breton thing, I've heard they are upset at Houston for being more Halifax-centric than Baillie was. Cape Breton has trended hard Tory over the past few years, primarily as a result of the Tories focusing on rural healthcare shortages and Houstan has moved away from that. Some of it is also the result of style differences. Houston is quite urbane, almost Trudeauish, while MacLeod and Orrell are more the old-style, back slapping, baby kissing, rubber chicken in a church basement type of politician.

Keep in mind this is all based off rumours, so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt.

[Hatman 🍁]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

I agree that d'Entremont has the best chance. Interestingly the reverse can be said for the seats they vacated?

What's wrong with Houston. And why is it Cape Breton MLAs that dislike him - add Paon's issues too, although that's mostly her fault.

I think PCs will probably hold all three simply due to how unpopular McNeil is.  Lets remember McNeil's approval ratings now are comparable to Wynne and Selinger at the time of both of their defeats and with by-elections having low turnouts, usually those mad at the government are more motivated to show up than those happy with them.

Even Doug Ford is more popular than McNeil.

[DL]

Even Doug Ford is more popular than McNeil.

He may be less UNpopular, but neither of them could be described as "popular"

[DC Al Fine]

By-elections to replace the three Tory MLA's who resigned to run federally, are being held today; Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg. Given the provincial polls, I would expect all three seats to be comfortable Tory holds.

[DC Al Fine]

By-elections were held yesterday in Nova Scotia. Two snoozers plus one really weird result:

Argyle-Barrington
Tory: 62% (-3)
Liberal: 31% (+1)
NDP: 3% (-1)
Green: 3% (+3)

Northside-Westmount
Tory: 29% (-34)
Liberal: 21% (nc)
Indy (Danny Laffin) 19%
NDP: 17% (+1)
Indy (Andrew Doyle) 10%
Green: 3% (+3)

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg
Tory: 44% (-24)
Liberal: 31% (+7)
Indy (Russ Green) 13%
NDP: 8% (nc)
Green: 4% (+4)

Couple quick thoughts:

1) That weird result was due to the then-Tory candidate getting booted mid campaign under questionable circumstances (he got #MeToo'd over an incident that he had disclosed to the party in two seperate candidacies), and running as an Indy

2) The Tories seem to have dropped a bit in Cape Breton from their spectacular highs in 2017. Given that they have taken the lead in the polls since then, that would suggest larger gains in Halifax and the rural mainland.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bad results for the Tories, a drop in all three ridings (though, strong independent campaigns contributed to that).

The Liberals actually gaining ground in 2 of the 3 ridings is a surprise.

[DC Al Fine]

Bad results for the Tories, a drop in all three ridings (though, strong independent campaigns contributed to that).

The Sydney River result is especially concerning. Northside-Westmount is understandable given the mess that went on, and the Argyle-Barrington is basically the status quo, but Sydney River? Alfie MacLeod was very popular, but I don't think he was 25%-drop-when-he-retires popular.

I wish the other MLA turned federal candidate had resigned too. That would have provided a non-Tory held seat to help "calibrate" things.

The Liberals actually gaining ground in 2 of the 3 ridings is a surprise.

Yes, that definitely surprised me. I was expecting decent sized drops.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

In NB former federal and provincial cabinet minister and Saint Croix MLA Greg Thompson passed away. If the Liberals or Greens win the ensuing by-election than the Greens and Liberals would hold a majority of seats in the legislature.


https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5278834

[DL]

In NB former federal and provincial cabinet minister and Saint Croix MLA Greg Thompson passed away. If the Liberals or Greens win the ensuing by-election than the Greens and Liberals would hold a majority of seats in the legislature.


https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5278834

I suppose anything is possible but that is a pretty conservative area of the province and the Higgs PC government is still in an apparent honeymoon

[DC Al Fine]

NDP MLA Lenore Zann was elected as a Liberal MP for Cumberland-Colchester, prompting her resignation provincially. We should have a by-election for her Truro-Bible Hill--Millbrook-Salmon River seat in the next several months. Should be an interesting test for all three major parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)
Dec 2: Jean-Talon, QC (provincial)
Dec 15: District 1, Saguenay, QC (municipal)

I don't think we'll have any others this year.

[MaxQue]

NDP MLA Lenore Zann was elected as a Liberal MP for Cumberland-Colchester, prompting her resignation provincially. We should have a by-election for her Truro-Bible Hill--Millbrook-Salmon River seat in the next several months. Should be an interesting test for all three major parties.

By-elections to be aslo held in:
Regina Walsh Acres (new Conservative MP for Regina-Lewvan)
Saskatoon Eastview (new Conservative MP for Saskatoon-University)

[DL]

By-elections to be aslo held in:
Regina Walsh Acres (new Conservative MP for Regina-Lewvan)
Saskatoon Eastview (new Conservative MP for Saskatoon-University)

Are you sure those byelections wouldnt be superseded by the Sask general election set to take place this coming spring?

[mileslunn]

NDP MLA Lenore Zann was elected as a Liberal MP for Cumberland-Colchester, prompting her resignation provincially. We should have a by-election for her Truro-Bible Hill--Millbrook-Salmon River seat in the next several months. Should be an interesting test for all three major parties.

By-elections to be aslo held in:
Regina Walsh Acres (new Conservative MP for Regina-Lewvan)
Saskatoon Eastview (new Conservative MP for Saskatoon-University)

Those based on past by-elections look like easy NDP pick ups, but after federal election and with anger at Trudeau tough to say.  I do think for Ryan Meilli, Trudeau being re-elected dramatically reduced his odds of winning.  Both UCP in Alberta and Saskatchewan Party are popular as people in both provinces hate Trudeau and those two are seen as standing up to him whereas had Tories won, more focus on their own records and couldn't use feds as whipping boy.

[Poirot]

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)

Former Olympic sprinter Bruny Surin is running in that race.

[Hatman 🍁]

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)

Former Olympic sprinter Bruny Surin is running in that race.

Cool!  He lost in a close three-way race:

Michel Trottier, Parti Laval 1501 (35%) +4%
Bruny Surin, Mouvement lavallois 1419 (33%) -12%
Francine Leblanc, Action Laval 1251 (29%) +17%
Gabriel Vellone, Progrès Laval 83 (2%) (new)

A star candidate for the party that has all but 2 seats on city council, and he lost? The current administration must not be popular.

[DL]

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)

Former Olympic sprinter Bruny Surin is running in that race.

Cool!  He lost in a close three-way race:

Michel Trottier, Parti Laval 1501 (35%) +4%
Bruny Surin, Mouvement lavallois 1419 (33%) -12%
Francine Leblanc, Action Laval 1251 (29%) +17%
Gabriel Vellone, Progrès Laval 83 (2%) (new)

A star candidate for the party that has all but 2 seats on city council, and he lost? The current administration must not be popular.

Can someone explain what the four parties in Laval stand for? Is one more progressive than the others?