Canadian by-elections, 2019

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81 polls

Liberal: 6,353
NDP: 7,604
Green: 1,136
Conservative: 309
Libertarian: 69
Van Isle: 72

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85 polls

Liberal: 6,741
NDP: 8,043
Green: 1,206
Conservative: 326
Libertarian: 71
Van Isle: 73

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90 polls

Liberal: 7,287
NDP: 8,825
Green: 1,309
Conservative: 357
Libertarian: 77
Van Isle: 86

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93 polls

Liberal: 7,535
NDP: 9,034
Green: 1,345
Conservative: 374
Libertarian: 77
Van Isle: 89

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98 polls

Liberal: 7,770
NDP: 9,447
Green: 1,405
Conservative: 397
Libertarian: 81
Van Isle: 92

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101 polls

Liberal: 7,995
NDP: 9,703
Green: 1,457
Conservative: 403
Libertarian: 82
Van Isle: 93

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105 polls

Liberal: 8,206
NDP: 10,087
Green: 1,515
Conservative: 416
Libertarian: 85
Van Isle: 96

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108 polls

Liberal: 8,272
NDP: 10,165
Green: 1,522
Conservative: 418
Libertarian: 85
Van Isle: 96

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110/111 polls

Liberal: 8,665
NDP: 10,538
Green: 1,579
Conservative: 442
Libertarian: 86
Van Isle: 100

The one poll (ballot box) outstanding may be the advanced poll, not sure.  If so, there are still several thousands votes to be added tonight.

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111/111 polls reporting

Total votes: 21,410
Sheila Malcolmson, NDP, 10,538, 49.2%
Tony Harris, Liberal: 8,665, 40.5%
Michele Ney, Green: 1,579,  7.4%
Justin Greenwood, Conservative, 442, 2.1%
Robin Richardson, Vancouver Island Party, 100, 0.5%
Bill Walker, Libertarian, 86, 0.4%

There are still 2,839 absentee ballots left to be counted. These are likely to fairly heavily favor the NDP.

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Where’d it all go wrong for Jagmeet? He cruised to the leadership, and since then I haven’t really been paying much attention to Canadian politics. What happened? Are poll numbers that dismal?

Things can change in a few months.  Jagmeet hasn't Singhed yet. 

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Well over 2,000 absentee ballots were counted in Nanaimo and the final results are in and as expected the absentee votes padded the NDP lead by another 600 or so votes. Final results are:

Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)     - 12,114 (49.88%)
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)       -  9,691 (39.90%)
Michele Ney (BC Green)       -  1,783 (7.34%)
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  -     491 (2.02%)
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  -     112 (0.46%)
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        -      96 (0.40%)
TOTAL Votes CAST 24,287

The turnout ended up being very high for a byelection and was only down about 3,000 votes from the last general election.

In BC, I've generally found Advanced polls favour BC Liberals, but absentee ballots always favour NDP.  While not sure the reason, I believe absentee ballots are most commonly used by public servants who vote at work particularly public school teachers and that group off course tends to favour the NDP.  For advanced polls it tends to be more business types who are away on business travel or seniors especially in colder months who are travelling and those two tend to lean BC Liberals.

On results I would say good for NDP as they won and increased vote share which is rare for a governing party.  But also good for BC Liberals as they saw a bigger jump in support than NDP and best performance here since 2005 using current boundaries.  Disaster for Greens as it seems progressive Greens are flocking to NDP as they are best party to block a BC Liberal win while dissatisfied BC Liberals who went Green in 2017 since they couldn't stomach voting NDP, but felt BC Liberals overstayed their welcome have returned to the BC Liberals.  Also disastrous for BC Conservatives as centre-right voters I think realize BC Liberals are only party who can beat NDP.  My prediction is next election will be more of a traditional two way race and wouldn't be surprised if both NDP and BC Liberals see their share of the popular vote go up while Greens drop back to usual 8-10% range.  Lets remember in 1979, 1983, 1986, 2005, and 2009, NDP got a larger share of the popular vote than they did in 2017 yet lost in those ones due to strong two way races.  On the other hand got a lower share in 1972 and 1996 but won a majority as non-NDP vote was more divided.

I think it's too soon to say with the Conservatives.  The party has been a mess for a few years and doesn't even have a permanent leader.

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This was the absentee vote result


Votes: 2,877
Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) 1,576
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)   1,026
Michele Ney (BC Green)      204
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  49
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  12
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        10

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There should be a lot of potential for the BC Conservatives. There is long history of rightwing populism there what with Social Credit and Reform etc...(much more so than in Ontario) and there is certainly room to fill on the right wing of the political spectrum. The BC Liberals have yet another federal Liberal as their leader and on top of that Wilkinson is the epitome of a stuffy upper class elitist twit who is a Rhodes scholar and a doctor and a lawyer! And the BC Liberals created the carbon tax.

If the BC Cons ever got their act together and had a decent leader they could easily run as an anti-carbon tax, politically incorrect party of rednecks and get quite a few votes. 

1.The B.C Conservatives went anti-carbon tax in 2013 with a relatively high profile former Conservative M.P, John Cummins, as leader, and their campaign went nowhere.  Cummins was clearly unprepared for the election campaign which he pretty much acknowledged by pointing out that he had to spend a great deal of his time fighting the B.C Conservative Party executive.  So, the evidence based on the 2013 campaign is mixed.

2.In addition to all those things about Wilkinson though, he is an extremely aggressive 'alpha male' which, based on stereotyping anyway, should make him popular with many conservatives.

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1.The B.C Conservatives went anti-carbon tax in 2013 with a relatively high profile former Conservative M.P, John Cummins, as leader, and their campaign went nowhere.  Cummins was clearly unprepared for the election campaign which he pretty much acknowledged by pointing out that he had to spend a great deal of his time fighting the B.C Conservative Party executive.  So, the evidence based on the 2013 campaign is mixed.

True, but in 2013 opposition to the carbon tax was not a rightwing "litmus test" the way it now is for conservatives in Canada. So IMHO, the BC Cons were ahead of their time in 2013. This year, the federal Tories will run a hysterical anti-carbon tax campaign across the country that may "prime the pump" for opposition to it in BC. The other thing is that Cummins himself was a very bad campaigner and was very weak. My point was that IF the BC Cons could ever get themselves a competent leader, there would be a lot of potential for them

Cummins was my M.P for a number of years.  Obviously leading a political party is a step up, but he was far from 'weak.'  As I wrote previously, if Cummins hadn't have had to fight his party executive, he likely would have run a much better campaign.  I think he had just gotten over some physical ailment at the start of the campaign as well.

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First poll reporting
Outremont
Liberal 61
NDP 12
Others 8

York-Simcoe
Conservative 40
Liberal 24
Others 9

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York-Simcoe 3 polls
Conservative 105
Liberal 53
Others 36

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Outremont 5 polls
Liberals 162
NDP 74
Green 40
B.Q 38
Conservative 20
PPC 5
Ind 3

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York-Simcoe 8/136 polls
Conservative 51-29%

Outremont 10/170
Liberal 50-20%

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York Simcoe 10 polls
P.C 55-27%

Outremont 15 polls
Liberal 49-19%

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York-Simcoe 15 polls
Conservative 52-29%

Outremont 19 polls
Liberal 46-23% Green 11% B.Q 10%

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York-Simcoe 20 polls
Conservative 51-29% NDP 9%

Outremont 23 polls
Liberal 45-24%-11-9

Burnaby South 0 polls
0-0%

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York-Simcoe 25 polls
Conservative 51-29%-9

Outremont 30 polls
Liberal 47-23%-12-9

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York-Simcoe 31 polls
Conservative 50-30%-9  John Turmel 10 votes

Outremont 35 polls
Liberal 46-23%-12-9 7% Conservative

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York-Simcoe 35 polls
Conservative 51-30%-9 John Turmel 11 votes

Outremont 40 polls
Liberal 45-24%-12-10-6