Canadian by-elections, 2019

[beesley]

Nathalie Des Roisiers (Liberal MPP for Ottawa-Vanier) is resigning to seek a job in academia. This will be the fourth by-election in that area in the last four years (Des Rosiers was elected in a 2016 by-election, and there was one federally in 2017, and a municipal by-election a few weeks ago).

Could be a potential NDP target if they run the right candidate (Emilie Taman maybe?). The demographics are right, but it is seen as a "safe Liberal" seat. But, the NDP came within 9 points of winning it in the 2011 federal election.

Should be a Liberal hold, they're polling 6-7 points higher than before, and this was their highest vote share. In theory, they could hold the by-election the same day as the Federal, but I suspect they wouldn't like that. It's understandable I suppose, this position is far more attractive than sitting next to Mike Schreiner and asking a question every two weeks (not that I have anything against Mike Schreiner, but it tells you all you need to know about the position of the OLP,) especially when you can be confident that Bob Chiarelli or someone can come in and hold the seat for you.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nathalie Des Roisiers (Liberal MPP for Ottawa-Vanier) is resigning to seek a job in academia. This will be the fourth by-election in that area in the last four years (Des Rosiers was elected in a 2016 by-election, and there was one federally in 2017, and a municipal by-election a few weeks ago).

Could be a potential NDP target if they run the right candidate (Emilie Taman maybe?). The demographics are right, but it is seen as a "safe Liberal" seat. But, the NDP came within 9 points of winning it in the 2011 federal election.

Should be a Liberal hold

Ok, but by-elections are quite different. Look at recent examples London West, Kitchener-Waterloo and Niagara Falls.

In theory, they could hold the by-election the same day as the Federal, but I suspect they wouldn't like that.

This never happens in Canada.

Bob Chiarelli or someone can come in and hold the seat for you.

Wrong end of town for Chiarelli to run in (he's also not a Francophone), plus he's pretty old now, so I'm sure he's had enough of politics.

Had the NDP run a good candidate (and a Franco), they would've won this seat last year. They came so close to winning Ottawa West and did very well in Ottawa South, two much more suburban ridings (with no NDP history!) than Ottawa-Vanier. Ottawa-Vanier is mostly an urban riding, and the western part of it is arguably the most left wing part of the city (especially Sandy Hill). Rideau-Rockcliffe just elected an NDP affiliated city councillor in a by-election. The riding can be won by the NDP.

[beesley]

Nathalie Des Roisiers (Liberal MPP for Ottawa-Vanier) is resigning to seek a job in academia. This will be the fourth by-election in that area in the last four years (Des Rosiers was elected in a 2016 by-election, and there was one federally in 2017, and a municipal by-election a few weeks ago).

Could be a potential NDP target if they run the right candidate (Emilie Taman maybe?). The demographics are right, but it is seen as a "safe Liberal" seat. But, the NDP came within 9 points of winning it in the 2011 federal election.

Should be a Liberal hold

Ok, but by-elections are quite different. Look at recent examples London West, Kitchener-Waterloo and Niagara Falls.

In theory, they could hold the by-election the same day as the Federal, but I suspect they wouldn't like that.

This never happens in Canada.

Bob Chiarelli or someone can come in and hold the seat for you.

Wrong end of town for Chiarelli to run in (he's also not a Francophone), plus he's pretty old now, so I'm sure he's had enough of politics.

Had the NDP run a good candidate (and a Franco), they would've won this seat last year. They came so close to winning Ottawa West and did very well in Ottawa South, two much more suburban ridings (with no NDP history!) than Ottawa-Vanier. Ottawa-Vanier is mostly an urban riding, and the western part of it is arguably the most left wing part of the city (especially Sandy Hill). Rideau-Rockcliffe just elected an NDP affiliated city councillor in a by-election. The riding can be won by the NDP.

Don't deny that by-elections are different, especially for the NDP. But at the moment, there's no reason why it should go any other way. On paper, this is a Liberal riding which should stay that way barring something. Chiarelli was still Mayor of Ottawa and I know he would be a good candidate if he ran, but I'm sure the Liberals would want a Francophone replacement. Emilie Taman herself is running in Ottawa Centre, (a better prospect), so she'd have to jump ship quickly. The riding can be won by the NDP, sure, but things are looking up for the OLP, especially in this region as the PCs lose popularity. It's a bit far to say that this should not be a Liberal hold, when all things are considered, just because it's a great opportunity for the NDP. Whatever happens, the PCs should tank.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals are leaderless at the moment, so things aren't really looking up for them- except for their polling, which is really just an artifact of reverting to the mean. I.e. "the bad lady's gone now, I suppose I can support the Liberals again". But, when it comes to actually voting people might want to support the main opposition party rather than the third party with only a handful of seats and no leader.

I forgot Taman was running federally, so that makes things difficult for the party. They're just beginning to (re)-build a local bench, and so don't have anyone other than Taman who is truly a 'star candidate', at least no one who is Francophone. Rawlson King just got elected to city council, and he's not a Franco, so he's out.  Lyra Evans wasn't a good candidate and isn't a Franco either (though, she's now a school trustee, so she's probably improved as a candidate) Another possibility is my school trustee, Chris Ellis, but again, not a Franco...

[adma]

It really depends on which way the Libs are perceived as going.  And while Ottawa-Vanier's definitely NDP-targetable on paper, under the circumstance that'd really depend upon conventional wisdom that the Ontario Liberals are headed for oblivion a la the Prairie Liberal parties.  And present polling doesn't support such oblivion theorem...

[toaster]

As long as the by-election occurs when U of O students are back (i.e., September or later), I'd say the NDP has a good chance.

By-elections in ridings with a large university/student component are unique in that students don't have to make the choice where to vote.  In a general, many students decide strategically to vote in their home riding as opposed to their university town one. 

[DC Al Fine]

Sackville Cobequid by-election is today.

[Hatman 🍁]

the results are more back and forth than game 6 of the NBA finals. NDP leads by 16 votes with 16/40 polls in.

[adma]

31/40; 1269 NDP, 1126 PC, 338 Lib, 296 GP, 16 Atlantica

[Hatman 🍁]

34 polls in, it's now 1399-1264

[adma]

All 40 polls--PC 2655, NDP 2472, Lib 655, GP 488, Atlantica 43.  (I presume the advance polls pushed the Tories over.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Awful

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1141157014166544391

I guess the NDP lost a bit to non voters/Greens while the Liberal vote collapsed into the PCs.

[DC Al Fine]

Not especially surprising. PC's are up in the polls, had a star candidate, and the NDP could have done a better job. Burill is not a great fit for the area.

[Hatman 🍁]

Technically not a by-election, but the deferred election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough was today. Polls are now closed, and with the advanced poll in, the PCs have a decent lead:

PC 620
Lib 395
Grn 363
NDP 19

Because it's PEI, that's probably more than half the vote in the district in

[beesley]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1150908031569473536?p=v

Good result for the PCs. Bad result for the Greens.

[Hatman 🍁]

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

[beesley]

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

Obviously. And this was going to be their best seat there anyway.

[DL]

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

I think people in Charlottetown read that Warren Kinsella was going to work for the Greens and they were so disgusted that they voted PC as a protest

[beesley]

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

I think people in Charlottetown read that Warren Kinsella was going to work for the Greens and they were so disgusted that they voted PC as a protest

One would hope so.

[adma]

I doubt most voters in Charlottetown even know who Warren Kinsella is, least of all to the point where they can make ballot-box judgment on him.

And somehow, this result makes me wonder whether the Greens will be an oppositional one-election wonder, a la Mario Dumont's Adequistes, the Carstairs Liberals in Manitoba, the Joliffe CCF in Ontario, etc...

[beesley]

I doubt most voters in Charlottetown even know who Warren Kinsella is, least of all to the point where they can make ballot-box judgment on him.

We were being facetious.

I doubt most voters in Charlottetown even know who Warren Kinsella is, least of all to the point where they can make ballot-box judgment on him.

And somehow, this result makes me wonder whether the Greens will be an oppositional one-election wonder, a la Mario Dumont's Adequistes, the Carstairs Liberals in Manitoba, the Joliffe CCF in Ontario, etc...

I agree. Obviously it's a good result for the PCs, but the Greens and the Liberals were three points apart.

Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable oppositional one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

[beesley]

I doubt most voters in Charlottetown even know who Warren Kinsella is, least of all to the point where they can make ballot-box judgment on him.

We were being facetious.

I doubt most voters in Charlottetown even know who Warren Kinsella is, least of all to the point where they can make ballot-box judgment on him.

And somehow, this result makes me wonder whether the Greens will be an oppositional one-election wonder, a la Mario Dumont's Adequistes, the Carstairs Liberals in Manitoba, the Joliffe CCF in Ontario, etc...

I agree. Obviously it's a good result for the PCs, but the Greens and the Liberals were three points apart.

Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable oppositional one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

[DL]

Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

The Bloc was NOT a "one election wonder". The took 54 seats in 1993, but they went on to take between 40 and 50 seats in 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008. They dominated Quebec federally for almost 20 years. It wasn't until the NDP surge of 2011 that they were demolished.

[beesley]

Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

The Bloc was NOT a "one election wonder". The took 54 seats in 1993, but they went on to take between 40 and 50 seats in 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008. They dominated Quebec federally for almost 20 years. It wasn't until the NDP surge of 2011 that they were demolished.

I'm aware. I corrected my post to show what I mean - they were only the official opposition once - as that is what the last few posts have been referring to.

[Hatman 🍁]

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

Obviously. And this was going to be their best seat there anyway.

Maybe? Hard to say which seat is "their best". In 2015, their best Charlottetown seat was Brighton, which they lost by 24 votes. In 2011, they nearly won Tracadie-Hillsborough Park, including most of the polls in Hillsborough Park. 2007 was a disaster for the Tories, only breaking 40% in two ridings in the city (best was Lewis Park at 41%). In 2003, they won all but two ridings in Charlottetown, with their best being Belvedere. In other words, it's PEI, so it matters more who the candidates are.

When it comes to federal elections though, the Tories do seem to do the best in Hillsborough Park though.