Canadian by-elections, 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2019  (Read 22112 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #25 on: January 31, 2019, 12:44:41 AM »

63 polls

Liberal: 4,470
NDP: 5,320
Green: 783
Conservative: 195
Libertarian: 60
Van Isle: 44

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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #26 on: January 31, 2019, 12:46:17 AM »

Global and CBC have called it.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2019, 12:47:45 AM »

64 polls

Liberal: 4,566
NDP: 5,410
Green: 804
Conservative: 206
Libertarian: 60
Van Isle: 44
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2019, 12:50:13 AM »

69 polls

Liberal: 4,854
NDP: 5,711
Green: 870
Conservative: 226
Libertarian: 61
Van Isle: 48
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: January 31, 2019, 12:53:50 AM »

73 polls

Liberal: 5,204
NDP: 6,195
Green: 937
Conservative: 245
Libertarian: 64
Van Isle: 51
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: January 31, 2019, 12:57:20 AM »

77 polls
Liberal: 5,726
NDP: 6,814
Green: 1,022
Conservative: 273
Libertarian: 65
Van Isle: 63

Vancouver Island Party momentum!
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #31 on: January 31, 2019, 01:01:14 AM »

81 polls

Liberal: 6,353
NDP: 7,604
Green: 1,136
Conservative: 309
Libertarian: 69
Van Isle: 72
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: January 31, 2019, 01:02:52 AM »

85 polls

Liberal: 6,741
NDP: 8,043
Green: 1,206
Conservative: 326
Libertarian: 71
Van Isle: 73
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YE
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« Reply #33 on: January 31, 2019, 01:03:11 AM »

Oh wow a good foreign election result for once.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #34 on: January 31, 2019, 01:11:07 AM »

90 polls

Liberal: 7,287
NDP: 8,825
Green: 1,309
Conservative: 357
Libertarian: 77
Van Isle: 86
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #35 on: January 31, 2019, 01:24:01 AM »

93 polls

Liberal: 7,535
NDP: 9,034
Green: 1,345
Conservative: 374
Libertarian: 77
Van Isle: 89
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: January 31, 2019, 01:35:51 AM »

98 polls

Liberal: 7,770
NDP: 9,447
Green: 1,405
Conservative: 397
Libertarian: 81
Van Isle: 92
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #37 on: January 31, 2019, 01:42:23 AM »

101 polls

Liberal: 7,995
NDP: 9,703
Green: 1,457
Conservative: 403
Libertarian: 82
Van Isle: 93
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: January 31, 2019, 01:44:42 AM »

105 polls

Liberal: 8,206
NDP: 10,087
Green: 1,515
Conservative: 416
Libertarian: 85
Van Isle: 96
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #39 on: January 31, 2019, 01:53:17 AM »

108 polls

Liberal: 8,272
NDP: 10,165
Green: 1,522
Conservative: 418
Libertarian: 85
Van Isle: 96
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mileslunn
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« Reply #40 on: January 31, 2019, 01:58:27 AM »

Looking at the results here are my thoughts.  I excluded Libertarians and Vancouver Island Party.

NDP: They held the riding and even saw their share of the popular vote go up slightly so generally a good sign as usually by-elections don't favour governing party mind you this was no ordinary by-election as unlike most others where you can launch a protest vote without consequences this was not the case, but still a good showing either way.  Certainly this helps establish themselves as the main progressive party.

BC Liberals: Despite falling short, it looks like they will end up with around 40% which is not a bad showing at all for them.  In many ways it appears a return to two party politics and if you were to apply a uniform swing (which I think with by-elections is always a risky idea) you would more or less get a repeat of the 2005 and 2009 elections.

Greens: Disastrous showing and looks like most Green voters in 2017 have returned to whichever party they voted for previously.  I suspect with PR dead, this might be the best the party will say in a long time.

BC Conservatives: Fact they only got 2% shows they are irrelevant and the fear of vote splitting on the right is totally overblown.

Pollsters: Mainstreet missed this one badly, mind you they showed BC Liberals with similarly big leads in Surrey-Fleetwood which wasn't even close so for them I take their overall provincial and federal numbers seriously, but ignore them on municipal and riding polls as have a good track record on the first two, not so good on the last two.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #41 on: January 31, 2019, 02:13:42 AM »

110/111 polls

Liberal: 8,665
NDP: 10,538
Green: 1,579
Conservative: 442
Libertarian: 86
Van Isle: 100

The one poll (ballot box) outstanding may be the advanced poll, not sure.  If so, there are still several thousands votes to be added tonight.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #42 on: January 31, 2019, 02:21:40 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2019, 04:56:55 AM by 136or142 »

111/111 polls reporting

Total votes: 21,410
Sheila Malcolmson, NDP, 10,538, 49.2%
Tony Harris, Liberal: 8,665, 40.5%
Michele Ney, Green: 1,579,  7.4%
Justin Greenwood, Conservative, 442, 2.1%
Robin Richardson, Vancouver Island Party, 100, 0.5%
Bill Walker, Libertarian, 86, 0.4%

There are still 2,839 absentee ballots left to be counted. These are likely to fairly heavily favor the NDP.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #43 on: January 31, 2019, 08:23:12 AM »

111/111 polls reporting

Total votes: 21,410
Sheila Malcolmson, NDP, 10,538, 49.2%
Tony Harris, Liberal: 8,665, 40.5%
Michele Ney, Green: 1,579,  7.4%
Justin Greenwood, Conservative, 442, 2.1%
Robin Richardson, Vancouver Island Party, 100, 0.5%
Bill Walker, Libertarian, 86, 0.4%

There are still 2,839 absentee ballots left to be counted. These are likely to fairly heavily favor the NDP.

Do we have a turnout number?

Based on the 2017 results:
NDP - 46.54%   +2.66% 2019 ByE
BCL - 32.54%   +7.96% 2019 ByE
GRN - 19.91%   -12.51% 2019 ByE

For a riding like Nanaimo, that was already strongly NDP, to be almost 50% is a win-win for the NDP; BCL can claim a win here too, 7% increase in a strong NDP riding is a very good showing. This Nanaimo riding has only existed since 2009 and the BCL have not won this high of a % till now. BCL must be happy to see the Conservatives at 2% as well, still no major threat, yet. Bad night for the BCGreens, they fell hard when you look at it, but really they fell back to around their traditional vote in this riding of about 8%.
On the surface it looks like the province will head back to the NDP-BCL two way race, if the Green vote collapses on the island like it did in this by-election. But Nanaimo was already not the strongest Green seat so maybe not.


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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #44 on: January 31, 2019, 09:52:23 AM »

I am almost convinced Mainstreet just never geocoded their sample. Their numbers were very different from our internal #s.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #45 on: January 31, 2019, 09:54:22 AM »

111/111 polls reporting

Total votes: 21,410
Sheila Malcolmson, NDP, 10,538, 49.2%
Tony Harris, Liberal: 8,665, 40.5%
Michele Ney, Green: 1,579,  7.4%
Justin Greenwood, Conservative, 442, 2.1%
Robin Richardson, Vancouver Island Party, 100, 0.5%
Bill Walker, Libertarian, 86, 0.4%

There are still 2,839 absentee ballots left to be counted. These are likely to fairly heavily favor the NDP.

Do we have a turnout number?

Based on the 2017 results:
NDP - 46.54%   +2.66% 2019 ByE
BCL - 32.54%   +7.96% 2019 ByE
GRN - 19.91%   -12.51% 2019 ByE

For a riding like Nanaimo, that was already strongly NDP, to be almost 50% is a win-win for the NDP; BCL can claim a win here too, 7% increase in a strong NDP riding is a very good showing. This Nanaimo riding has only existed since 2009 and the BCL have not won this high of a % till now. BCL must be happy to see the Conservatives at 2% as well, still no major threat, yet. Bad night for the BCGreens, they fell hard when you look at it, but really they fell back to around their traditional vote in this riding of about 8%.
On the surface it looks like the province will head back to the NDP-BCL two way race, if the Green vote collapses on the island like it did in this by-election. But Nanaimo was already not the strongest Green seat so maybe not.




I think the Greens can't be too upset. A Liberal win resulting in an early election would likely result in them having no more power at all.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #46 on: January 31, 2019, 10:29:39 AM »

will the ndp try to get there leader in the commons in one of the by election?
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #47 on: January 31, 2019, 10:35:19 AM »

will the ndp try to get there leader in the commons in one of the by election?

They already are.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnaby_South
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #48 on: January 31, 2019, 11:28:35 AM »

Turnout in Nanaimo was pretty good for a by-election. If there are 2,839 outstanding ballots, and there are still around 44k electors, then the turnout was about 55%.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #49 on: January 31, 2019, 11:51:14 AM »

Yeah, I think the Green collapse here can’t tell us much about a general election because people won’t be going in thinking their seat will be determining if the government stays alive or not.
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