Canadian by-elections, 2019

[136or142]

110 polls
   
NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,070   22.7 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   428   3.2 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,446   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,265   24.1 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   20   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   5,214   38.5 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   90   0.7 %

[136or142]

115 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,215   22.8 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   441   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,516   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,382   24.0 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   22   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   5,432   38.5 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   93   0.7 %   

[136or142]

120 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,364   22.7 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   458   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,598   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,602   24.3 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   23   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   5,662   38.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   101   0.7 %

[ON Progressive]

Both CBC and Global have projected a Green victory.

[136or142]

130 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,651   22.6 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   490   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,741   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,959   24.5 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   25   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   6,192   38.3 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   115   0.7 %   

[136or142]

135 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,799   22.6 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   508   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,832   10.9 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   4,108   24.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   27   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   6,421   38.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   120   0.7 %

[136or142]

140 Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,939   22.5 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   522   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,930   11.0 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   4,274   24.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   28   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   6,686   38.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   122   0.7 %

Surprise result! John Turmel has been declared the winner!

[136or142]

150 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   4,324   23.0 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   562   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,043   10.9 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   4,564   24.3 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   29   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   7,139   38.0 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   129   0.7 %

[_]

The Greens actually did it!

And now the real fun begins

[136or142]

160 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   4,646   23.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   611   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,156   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   4,944   24.5 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   31   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   7,623   37.8 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   138   0.7 %

[136or142]

170 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   4,953   23.0 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   668   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,298   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   5,255   24.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   33   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   8,154   37.9 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   146   0.7 %

[136or142]

180 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   5,230   22.8 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   714   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,482   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   5,664   24.7 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   35   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   8,637   37.7 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   152   0.7 %

[136or142]

195 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   6,083   23.2 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   805   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,838   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   6,474   24.6 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   43   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   9,860   37.5 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   172   0.7 %

[136or142]

200 Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   6,294   23.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   828   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,953   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   6,774   24.9 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   45   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   10,177   37.3 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   177   0.6 %

[136or142]

210 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   6,669   23.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   898   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   3,136   10.9 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   7,191   24.9 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   48   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   10,741   37.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   185   0.6 %

[136or142]

220 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   7,077   23.5 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   937   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   3,242   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   7,381   24.5 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   48   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   11,298   37.4 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   192   0.6 %

[136or142]

230 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   7,431   23.5 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   969   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   3,373   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   7,694   24.3 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   50   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   11,915   37.7 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   200   0.6 %

[136or142]

240 Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   8,416   23.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   1,117   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   3,989   11.0 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   8,996   24.7 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   61   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   13,618   37.4 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   225   0.6 %

[136or142]

250 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   9,246   23.0 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   1,230   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   4,438   11.0 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   10,040   25.0 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   65   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   14,907   37.1 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   247   0.6 %   

[toaster]

Not looking good for Jagmeet.  At this rate, I'm wondering how many seats he'll win.

[DC Al Fine]

The Progressive Canadians are still kicking around? Neat.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/fatimabsyed/status/1129162488115814400?fbclid=IwAR29MxL7fV2E...

[toaster]

Lalonde has not confirmed she will be resining, so it's a little pre-mature to say it will be down to 5. Only if she wins the nomination.

Also, anyone thinking there might be something going on with both of these women leaving?  Possible disagreement with Fraser?  Seems more than a coincidence.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called a by-election in Sackville-Cobequid for June 18th. The election is being held to replace former NDP cabinet minister and leadership candidate Dave Wilson, who retired last year. Sackville-Cobequid is traditionally an NDP seat, but it has been close a few times and the Tories are running a star candidate, Steve Craig, the councilor for the area.

Should be an NDP hold, but the Tories have an outside shot at picking up the seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nathalie Des Roisiers (Liberal MPP for Ottawa-Vanier) is resigning to seek a job in academia. This will be the fourth by-election in that area in the last four years (Des Rosiers was elected in a 2016 by-election, and there was one federally in 2017, and a municipal by-election a few weeks ago).

Could be a potential NDP target if they run the right candidate (Emilie Taman maybe?). The demographics are right, but it is seen as a "safe Liberal" seat. But, the NDP came within 9 points of winning it in the 2011 federal election.