Canadian by-elections, 2019

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess the NDP put most of their resources into Burnaby, and had to sacrifice Outremont, but as I kept saying a long time ago, the riding is still winnable, even in this environment. It used to be the party's best riding before they made their breakthrough with Mulcair. It's one of the least 'racist' ridings in the province, and is quite federalist, and has a progressive tint. Sure, it has a Liberal tradition, but it still backed Valerie Plante in the Montreal mayoral race over Denis Coderre.

[mileslunn]

I guess the NDP put most of their resources into Burnaby, and had to sacrifice Outremont, but as I kept saying a long time ago, the riding is still winnable, even in this environment. It used to be the party's best riding before they made their breakthrough with Mulcair. It's one of the least 'racist' ridings in the province, and is quite federalist, and has a progressive tint. Sure, it has a Liberal tradition, but it still backed Valerie Plante in the Montreal mayoral race over Denis Coderre.

I would say that is generally true, although I think Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie is even more favourable to the NDP.  After all this area went heavily for the PLQ last provincial election despite their terrible results while QS did well on the East Island but less so here.  Now unlike other provinces, Quebec's provincial elections are a different beast so you cannot automatically assume those who voted CAQ will go Conservative, PLQ Liberal, QS NDP, and PQ BQ, its a bit more complicated but it can at least give one an idea of the ideological orientations as the 2018 provincial election was probably the first since the Quiet Revolution fought more on philosophical orientation as opposed to separatism vs. federalism.

[lilTommy]

I guess the NDP put most of their resources into Burnaby, and had to sacrifice Outremont, but as I kept saying a long time ago, the riding is still winnable, even in this environment. It used to be the party's best riding before they made their breakthrough with Mulcair. It's one of the least 'racist' ridings in the province, and is quite federalist, and has a progressive tint. Sure, it has a Liberal tradition, but it still backed Valerie Plante in the Montreal mayoral race over Denis Coderre.

I would say that is generally true, although I think Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie is even more favourable to the NDP.  After all this area went heavily for the PLQ last provincial election despite their terrible results while QS did well on the East Island but less so here.  Now unlike other provinces, Quebec's provincial elections are a different beast so you cannot automatically assume those who voted CAQ will go Conservative, PLQ Liberal, QS NDP, and PQ BQ, its a bit more complicated but it can at least give one an idea of the ideological orientations as the 2018 provincial election was probably the first since the Quiet Revolution fought more on philosophical orientation as opposed to separatism vs. federalism.

Federally I think after 2011, the NDP sweep, you saw Separatism really start to fall to the side as the major or even a major issue in Quebec during the federal election. Immigration (for Conservatives) and Climate Change/Pipelines (for Progressives) are much more important and becoming more dominant as Quebec's issues that they will focus on. Right now, I think the province is still trying to settle and adjust to this orientation, which is why the Liberals are doing very well, they are the safe bucket, they just know them. The PLQ and LPC are pretty much the same for the most part. The new NPDQ is too new to have solidified any provincial-federal relationship, but its there (just no ones paid attention, QS sucked up all that vote).

I think the NDP are relieved to some extent, and I think stronger candidates will be in place in their arguably best chances to keep seats, Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga than might have been if the NDP polled under 20%
I agree with the above, but QS voters are much more aligned with the NDP ideologically (minus separation) then with the other parties... even the BQ has moved to the right if i'm not mistaken. There used to more alignment with the NDP and PQ due to social issues/fiscal policy, but the PQ is shifting as well to the right. 

[adma]

After all this area went heavily for the PLQ last provincial election despite their terrible results while QS did well on the East Island but less so here.

Though that's more the W part (Cote-des-Neiges et al), and a lot of that has skewed by unfavourable provincial riding configuration as well (the real heart of PLQ support in Mont-Royal-Outremont being in Mont-Royal, which had a way of pulling the whole riding in that direction)

[Poirot]

Now unlike other provinces, Quebec's provincial elections are a different beast so you cannot automatically assume those who voted CAQ will go Conservative, PLQ Liberal, QS NDP, and PQ BQ, its a bit more complicated but it can at least give one an idea of the ideological orientations as the 2018 provincial election was probably the first since the Quiet Revolution fought more on philosophical orientation as opposed to separatism vs. federalism.

In its poll done in late January Léger had numbers on federal vote according to provincial vote. At that time the federal numbers were:
PLC 39, CPC 21, BQ 21, NDP 8, PPC 6, Green 5

Provincial vote: CAQ 42, PLQ, 22, PQ 18, QS 15, Other 3

Data on the second page
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Politique-QC-publication-le-2-f%C3%A9vrier-2019.pdf

CAQ voters: LPC 28, CPC 29, BQ 16, NDP 6, PPC 6, Green 1
PLQ voters: LPC 75, CPC 13, BQ 0, NDP 2, PPC 4, Green 3
PQ voters: LPC 14, CPC 13, BQ 54, NDP 7, PPC 2, Green 3
QS voters: LPC 24, CPC 7, BQ 23, NDP 18, PPC 3, Green 12

At that time the NDP was behind the Liberals and Bloc among QS voters, which might explain why it was in single digit in that poll. NDP and QS seem to share some organizers and volunteers, in Montreal anyway.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1109818661550870533

[mileslunn]

I suspect this should be an interesting Green/NDP race.  Greens are strong in Greater Victoria area so this will be test if they can move further up the Island.  Liberals have never been strong here so don't expect them to pick this up.  Tories in theory could win, but they would need very strong splits.  Yes they got 40% in 2011 in this riding, but they are nowhere near 2011 levels in BC, so I would say 30% is probably their ceiling or low 30s and I could just as easily see them staying in the 20s or maybe even teens if some vote tactically.

[lilTommy]

I suspect this should be an interesting Green/NDP race.  Greens are strong in Greater Victoria area so this will be test if they can move further up the Island.  Liberals have never been strong here so don't expect them to pick this up.  Tories in theory could win, but they would need very strong splits.  Yes they got 40% in 2011 in this riding, but they are nowhere near 2011 levels in BC, so I would say 30% is probably their ceiling or low 30s and I could just as easily see them staying in the 20s or maybe even teens if some vote tactically.

Agreed; the PM calling this by-election after the NDP win in Burnaby South, arguably there is some wind in the sales of the NDP but the NDP does not have a nominated candidate yet. Two high profile candidates are running:
* Lauren Semple, the event director for the last three Nanaimo Pride festivals, a former Nanaimo Pride president, and former riding assistant to Malcolmson; (I'd say the Socialist backed candidate by who i've seen endorse)
* Bob Chamberlin, vice president of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs and elected chief of the Kwikwasut'inuxw Haswa'mis First Nation. (Likely to win the nomination, huge candidate for the party)

The Green candidate is filmmaker and formerly rejected NDP candidate Paul Manly. We basically have a NDP vs Green-ish-NDPer. Now this is not the 2015 NDP so I don't think the criticisms here will stick to the party led by Jagmeet then say if Mulcair was still leader. 

https://www.straight.com/news/1218361/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-calls-election-nanaimo-ladysmith-midst-ndp-nomination

This will distract and occupy the left, which might be some relief for the LPC... but another NDP win will just add fire to the NDP now. Watch for the LPC to behind-the-scenes be helping the Greens.

[DC Al Fine]

Would the Liberals really help the Greens right now? That sounds a bit too clever for their own good. The Greens seem to have been a big beneficiary of the Liberals drop in the polls, even more than the Conservatives, presumably because they provide an alternative for progressives upset about the pipeline or LavScam who are too rich to vote NDP.

If the Greens win that by-election, it could solidify them as a legitimate progressive alternative to the Liberals and NDP, which in turn could mean a world of hurt for the Liberals in October. Then again, what do I know. The Liberals have made so many mistakes managing LavScam, maybe they will help the Greens

[DL]

Would the Liberals really help the Greens right now? That sounds a bit too clever for their own good. The Greens seem to have been a big beneficiary of the Liberals drop in the polls, even more than the Conservatives, presumably because they provide an alternative for progressives upset about the pipeline or LavScam who are too rich to vote NDP.

If the Greens win that by-election, it could solidify them as a legitimate progressive alternative to the Liberals and NDP, which in turn could mean a world of hurt for the Liberals in October. Then again, what do I know. The Liberals have made so many mistakes managing LavScam, maybe they will help the Greens

It would not be the first time that the Liberals have outsmarted themselves by trying to promote the Green party thinking it would hurt the NDP only to have the Greens take more votes from the Liberals than anyone else. It happened in 2008 when the Greens scopped up votes from Liberals disgruntled with Dion...also in the last BC election the BC Liberals attempts to promote the Greens under Weaver blew up in their face as the Greens took more votes from the Liberals than they did form the NDP.

This is what the Liberals have been reduced to these day - all tactics and no strategy

[Hash]

There's an Ottawa city council by-election in Rideau-Rockcliffe ward today. To kill time, I've done some canvassing for a candidate here (even though I don't live in the ward).

Located in eastern Ottawa, the ward has a fairly strange shape. There are sharp socioeconomic differences between some of the neighbourhoods included in this ward, from affluent parts like Rockcliffe Park (the wealthiest part of Ottawa) and New Edinburgh to low-income areas like Overbrook. Around 27% of the population is Francophone and 28% are visible minorities. It is a predominantly 'urban' (as opposed to suburban) type of ward, although there are some more suburban areas. Its politics tend to be centre-left liberal/progressive, and most candidates in this by-election generally fit the mould, although there are differences between more outright left-leaning progressives and wishy-washy centrist liberals.

There are no less than 17 candidates running in the by-election, up from just 2 last year (when the incumbent was reelected with 80%). It had the lowest turnout of any ward in 2018, at 37.2%. The candidates are:

Kasia Adamiec: Young woman who I believe is/was a federal civil servant, and has served on a bunch of police/crime-related community organizations and committees. Appears to be moderately centre-right, with fairly boring and unambitious proposals (it seems her top environmental promise is 'composting program in high-rises & condos', so yeah). Randomly endorsed by former Etobicoke Centre Conservative MP Ted Opitz.
Idris Ben-Tahir: Doesn't have any online presence, but unsuccessfully ran for mayor (2010), city council, school board and the federal Tory nomination in Ottawa Centre (2006). Was in the news in 2015 for losing a claim for a disability award from a hazing incident in the RCAF in 1965.
Marc Dorgeville: Financial counsellor and former engineer. Left-wing and green/environmentalist, his top priorities are climate change and poverty. He's also a Francophone, and is also focusing on that. I've done some canvassing with him during the campaign.
Bruce A. Faulkner: Truck driver. Ran for the provincial Libertarian Party in Ottawa Centre in 2014 and 2018, probably the most right-wing candidate.
Johan Hamels: Originally from Belgium (Flanders), he was active in the green party in Flanders and with the federal Green Party in Canada. Obviously a centre-left progressive, focusing on climate change and affordable housing. He is also a Francophone, and has thorough policy planks on Francophone rights and issues.
Peter Heyck: The other candidate in 2018 (who got less than 20% against the incumbent). Has a Twitter account, but doesn't seem to have any kind of platform.
Miklos Horvath: Former (?) civil servant, bilingual. Appears somewhat progressive, and his platform largely laments the poor quality of public services received by residents (esp. transit).
Peter Jan Karwacki: Claims that he would continue outgoing city councillor Tobi Nussbaum's policies, and says the top 2 issues are gang violence and the 'ever-increasing burden on taxpayers of the cost of LRT'.
Rawlson King: President of the Overbrook community association. Explicitly left-wing progressive candidate, and 'unofficial' NDP candidate (endorsed by Ottawa Centre NDP MPP Joel Harden, as well as left/NDP-leaning city councillors Catherine McKenney and Shawn Menard, and school trustees Lyra Evans and Chris Ellis, as well as 2010/2018 left-leaning mayoral candidate Clive Doucet). Has proposals including inclusionary zoning, electoral reform (ranked voting), transit fare freeze, declaring a climate change emergency and a city-wide handgun/assault weapons ban.
Jerry Kovacs: Lawyer, former professor. His top 2 issues are municipal services/infrastructure and community engagement.
Jamie Kwong: Former executive director of the Vanier BIA executive director, she is the main 'pro-business' liberal in the race. Repeats the words 'business leader' a lot. Endorsed by former Liberal MP Bryon Wilfert and former city councillor Bob Monette.
Maurice Lamirande: Old guy who ran for the PCs in Ottawa-Vanier in 1999 and 2003 and was a two-term school trustee on the Conseil des écoles catholiques du Centre-Est. Says he will 'your voice at the table' a lot. Campaign platform seems generic.
Patrick Mayangi: Carleton University grad. I had a class with him a few years ago, seemed like a nice enough guy. Campaign seems to focus a lot on platitudes and empty catchphrases, which sound nice but don't actually mean anything.
Oriana Ngabirano: Reputation manager and public relations specialist. Platform seems to be pretty generic and boring.
Chris Penton: Business development manager. His platform appears fairly centrist and 'pro-business'.
Sheila Perry: Teacher, president of the Federation of Community Associations of Ottawa and president of the Ottawa Council of Women, former president of the Overbrook Community Association. She ran in this ward in 2014. Endorsed by city councillor Jeff Leiper and former city councillor Marianne Wilkinson. Moderately centre-left liberal.
Penny Thompson: President of the Manor Park Community Association. She is officially supported by former Liberal MPP Madeleine Meilleur and former (right-leaning) city councillor Peter D. Clark. I've also heard she is unofficially 'supported' by the mayor, Jim Watson. It makes sense: like him, she's a boring centrist with very unambitious and generic policy goals.

Given such a large field, the winner will probably have a small majority and a low plurality of the vote. I may be entirely wrong, but from my impression of the campaign, I'd wager that the favourites/strongest candidates are: Jamie Kwong, Rawlson King, Penny Thompson, Sheila Perry and maybe Marc Dorgeville and Kasia Adamiec. I won't even try to predict who will win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hoping for a Rawlson King victory, obviously. With so many candidates running, his high profile endorsements might help him win, if he can capture most of the left wing vote.

I've only been into that ward once during the campaign, so I don't know who's winning the sign war. I do think  Kwong has the nicest signs though, FWIW.

[adma]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/rawlson-king-byelection-win-1.5092982?fbclid=IwAR0BKbpZ0SQF1dC7Fi8Ojp0AmlmaXQMaz3suWmpGJvvF1-dyr7ctiIPNTRE

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh. I should've put some money on it; Turned out it was a King-Kwong race.

+1 more NDP councillor And, apparently he will be the first Black city councillor in Ottawa's history.

[lilTommy]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/rawlson-king-byelection-win-1.5092982?fbclid=IwAR0BKbpZ0SQF1dC7Fi8Ojp0AmlmaXQMaz3suWmpGJvvF1-dyr7ctiIPNTRE

With 17 candidates, as above, King won with... 18.36%, 1529 votes. Kwong with 1406. over 30% turnout, I would suspect that's pretty decent for a municipal by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's a VERY good turnout for a municipal by-election. Only a few hundred fewer voters than in last year's municipal election.

[Hash]

Results

R. King 18.36% (+123 votes)
J. Kwong 16.88%
P. Thompson 10.22%
M. Dorgeville 9.53%
S. Perry 8.91%
M. Lamirande 8.5%
J. Hamels 7.98%
K. Adamiec 6.09%
C. Penton 5.29%
O. Ngabirano 2.97%
P. Mayangi 1.62%
M. Horvath 1.07%
All other jokers below 1%

Turnout 30.61%

A good result. Ottawa city council needs more left-wing voices who won't let Jim Watson do whatever he wants, advocate for the sort of ambitious progressive and green public policies this city needs and hopefully hold the developers and contractors accountable. I'm fairly pleased with how well the candidate I supported did, lacking the endorsements and support of the political and business worlds. Pretty good turnout as well for a local by-election which pissed off a lot of people.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, and it's nice to see the mayor's candidate finished third. Of course, in council races the mayor's candidate of choice doesn't run as the "mayor's candidate". I guess Jim wants to be seen as independent, despite the fact he very clearly has a team of councillors who support almost all of his agenda.  If Jim had his campaign team out in full force, he could've easily got Thompson elected.

[DC Al Fine]

What sort of "ambitious progressive and green public policies" are you guus thinking of Hash and Hatman?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, for me, my main local issues are:

- Support for ranked ballots
- Building more affordable housing
- More bike lanes / multi-use paths
- Lowering (or at least freezing) transit fares
- Not reducing the size of council (preferably increasing it)

Pipe dream: De-amalgamation and/or establish boroughs.

[DC Al Fine]

Well, for me, my main local issues are:

- Support for ranked ballots
- Building more affordable housing
- More bike lanes / multi-use paths
- Lowering (or at least freezing) transit fares
- Not reducing the size of council (preferably increasing it)

Pipe dream: De-amalgamation and/or establish boroughs.

I'm with you on the council size one. Halifax has more MLA's than councillors thanks to size reductions

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, for me, my main local issues are:

- Support for ranked ballots
- Building more affordable housing
- More bike lanes / multi-use paths
- Lowering (or at least freezing) transit fares
- Not reducing the size of council (preferably increasing it)

Pipe dream: De-amalgamation and/or establish boroughs.

I'm with you on the council size one. Halifax has more MLA's than councillors thanks to size reductions

Yup. As do many western Canadian cities. Ridiculous!

[skbl17]

Green Party-commissioned riding poll for Nanaimo-Ladysmith: GRN 36%, NDP 24%, LIB 19%, CON 17%, People's 4%.

https://twitter.com/AJWVictoriaBC/status/1124729833483788288

[beesley]

Well, that gives Singh a bit of credibility, or at least a chance at it. Can he grasp it?

My brain is vividly imagining the hilarious scenario in which Singh actually manages to get the NDP somewhat in order via his platform as a parliamentarian, the SNC-Lavalin farrago results in a Liberal collapse across-the-board, and the 2019 election turns into an NDP-CPC horserace that ultimately culminates in an absolute majority for the Tories and the NDP back in the role of Official Opposition.

The NDP would be a far better opposition than the Liberals.

[136or142]

First poll

Voting Results for the electoral district of Nanaimo—Ladysmith
Party   Candidate   Votes   Percent of Votes   Bar graph of percentage of votes
NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   10   12.2 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   1   1.2 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   18   22.0 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   35   42.7 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   0   0.0 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   17   20.7 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   1   1.2 %