Canadian by-elections, 2019

[136or142]

Burnaby South 172 polls
NDP 38-26-23-11

[136or142]

Burnaby South 175 polls
NDP 38.5-26-23-11

[MAINEiac4434]

Jagmeet Singh will likely finish the night with the most raw votes out of all the candidates.

[136or142]

Burnaby South 180 polls
NDP  38.5-26-23-11

[trebor204]

Turnout approching 30% in Burnaby, and 20% in York-Simcoe and Outremont

[136or142]

Outremont 160/170 polls
Liberal 40-28-13-10-6

A high profile NDP candidate here probably could have made this a very close race.

[mileslunn]

Outremont 160/170 polls
Liberal 40-28-13-10-6

A high profile NDP candidate here probably could have made this a very close race.

Also bodes well for holding Rosemont-La Petite Patrie and maybe other east end Montreal ridings as this area went heavily for the PLQ and I suspect much of the NDP support will come from QS voters provincially whose support was strongest on the east end.

[136or142]

York-Simcoe 120/136 polls
Conservative 53-30-7.5

[136or142]

Burnaby South 185 polls
NDP 39-26-22.5-11

[136or142]

York-Simcoe 125/136
Conservative 53-29.5-7.5

Burnaby South 189/196
NDP 39-26-23-11

[136or142]

York-Simcoe 130/136
Conservative 54-29-7

[Mazda]

And at this moment, NDP + Green *is* ahead of the Libs in Outremont (whether that'll hold, I don't know)

Do we know who Green voters tend to have as their second choice? I would have thought that with their ideological profile, Canadian Greens would tend to second-preference Liberals - and of course they'd all have to prefer NDP if any meaningful accusation of vote-splitting were to hold water.

[trebor204]

How would a ranked ballot play out in Burnaby?

There could a good chance the Conservatives (who finished 3rd) could have taken the riding.


NDP     38.8%
LIB       26.1%
CONSV  22.7%
PPC    10.7%
INDs       1.6%

After the Inds and People's Party are dropped out.

You might have:

NDP  40%
Consv  33%
Liberal: 27%

Could the Conservative's take about 2/3 of the Liberal vote?

[136or142]

York-Simcoe wins!  York-Simcoe has final results first

136/136 polls
16,564 Total votes
8,929 53.9% Conservative Scot Davidson
4,811 29.0% Liberal Shaun Tanaka
1,244 7.5% NDP Jessa McLean
634 3.8% P.C Dorian Baxter
451 2.7% Green, Mathew Lund
314 1.9% People's Party  Robert Geurtz
95 0.6% Libertarian, Keith Dean Komar
64 0.4% Independent, John Turmel
22 0.1% National Citizens Coalition, Adam Suhr

83,179 registered voters, 19.91% turnout

[136or142]

Burnaby South final
22,776 total votes
8,884 39.0% NDP Jagmeet Singh
5,930 26.0% Liberal Richard T Lee
5,130 22.5% Conservative Jay Shin
2,420 10.6% People's Party, Laura-Lynn Thompson
240 1.1% Independent Terry Grimwood
169 .7% Independent Valentine Wu

76,204 registered voters, 29.89% turnout

[trebor204]

Final Results from Burnaby South

Independent   Terry Grimwood   240   1.1 %   
Liberal   Richard T. Lee   5,930   26.0 %   
Conservative   Jay Shin   5,133   22.5 %   
NDP- Jagmeet Singh   8,884   39.0 %   
People's Party   Laura-Lynn Thompson   2,420   10.6 %   
Independent   Valentine Wu   169   0.7 %

Scot Davidson (8, 929 votes) did manage to win the raw vote tonight over Jahmeet Singh (8,884). Davidson had a 67 vote lead with 2 polls remaining in Burnaby, however the last 2 polls must have come from special polls which only accounted a total of 65 votes from the 2 polls.

Burnaby had their polls counted quicker.

[136or142]

So, who are the New Democrats that might have won in Outremont?

[MAINEiac4434]

So, who are the New Democrats that might have won in Outremont?

Tom Mulcair

[136or142]

Outremont, Final Results
15,055 total votes
6,086 40.4% Liberal Rachel Bendayan
3,925 26.1% NDP Julia Sánchez
1,889 12.5% Green Daniel Green
1,683 11.2% B.Q Michel Duchesne
1,098 7.3% Conservative Jasmine Louras
322 2.1% People's Party, James Seale
52 0.3% Independent William Barrett

70,414 registered voters (21.38% turnout)

[136or142]

So, who are the New Democrats that might have won in Outremont?

Tom Mulcair

[136or142]

Aggregate totals

54,395 Total votes
16,827 Liberal
15,157 Conservative
14,053 N.D.P
3,056 People's Party
2,340 Green (2 candidates)
1,683 Bloc Quebecois
1,276 Others
(My totals are off by 3 votes)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, that gives Singh a bit of credibility, or at least a chance at it. Can he grasp it?

[lilTommy]

I think for the NDP York-Simcoe was also surprisingly a good result, at about 7-8% that's just shy of their 9% from 2015, effectively holding their vote in a riding which was not at all considered a target. We have seen massive failures of the NDP in similar seats where the party dropped to 3% or so. Outremont is unfortunate for the NDP, no unexpected thought, but 20% would have been a decent night, so 26% is solid and should allow the party to breath a sigh a relief that Rosemount and Hochelaga are probably better for the NDP then they had thought. Also most of their 2015 survivors who are more personally popular like Ruth Ellen Brosseau and Pierre Luke Dusseault might fair better too.
Burnaby South is nothing but a success for the NDP; Singh winning and increasing the % over the 2015 numbers while the Liberals and Conservatives saw a decrease in votes.

16,827 - 30.9% - Liberals - Good night, gain Outremont but should be concerned with BC

15,157 - 27.9% - Conservatives - OK night, held a seat with some gains but not where they need it. Bad night in Quebec and BC. PPC should be a concern for them if they run good candidates

14,053 - 25.8% - NDP - Good night, Singh in the house is the "start" the party needs, decent result in Outremont, but still a loss, Que is still a concern, especially from the Greens and BQ but BC and Urban seats show some hope

3,056 - 5.6% - PPC - Good candidates can win a solid chunk, and hurt the CONs, probably overstated but 4% nationally is not out of the question

2,340 - 4.3% - Green - Isn't really representative, they are probably double this number. They only represented 3% in Burnaby South in 2015, but could have pulled in more in this by-election I think. Quebec was a good result so see they start to target there I think.  

[adma]

So, who are the New Democrats that might have won in Outremont?

Tom Mulcair

Well, even Julia Sanchez, had the byelection not taken place w/Jagmeet's leadership under an unelected (yet) cloud (the absence of said cloud which probably would also have drawn a lot of Green vote-parkers their way).  After all, the party *was* privately expected to be happy with a solid 25% second-place result--and that's exactly what happened.

I think what a *lot* of people were expecting was a 50%+ Liberal blowout--SNC-Lavalin probably put a big dent in that.

And as for Burnaby South: it's interesting that after all the byelection psychodrama, the end result almost exactly replicated what Mainstreet polled in mid-January (38.8% NDP vs 39.0%, 26.3% Lib vs 26.0%, 22 % CPC vs 22.5%, 8.7% PPC vs 10.6%)

[mileslunn]

My final thoughts are:

Liberals: A decent but not great night.  They did regain Outremont, although the win was not as big as many expected, still a win is a win.  In York-Simcoe took a bit of a hit and sort of right on the dividing point as usually when Liberals get over 30% there, they win, when they get below they lose so fell just shy of the 30% mark.  A not so good showing in Burnaby South, but not a total disaster either as results there similar to the Martin/Chretien era when they got 5-9 seats in BC, but not as disastrous as in the Dion/Ignatieff era when they did much worse there.

Tories: Okay showing, but even though some polls suggest they are in the lead, the numbers last night don't seem to allude to that.  Up in York-Simcoe and won big there, but that is a safe Tory riding so to be expected.  Had they gotten over 60% there it might be more newsworthy.  For comparison they got 4 points more than 2015 while 3 points less than Caroline Mulroney did provincially so much like Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes better than 2015, worse than provincially 2018 so suggesting more than the 33 seats won in 2015, but fewer than the 76 seats the Ontario PCs won.  In BC, fell and were hurt by the People's Party cracking double digits so while the other two ridings suggest People's Party not a huge problem overall, if they have strong known candidates it could cost them in some key ones.  Did poorly in Outremont as expected.

NDP:  Actually a fairly decent night at least relative to expectations, but overall fairly average.  Won Burnaby South by a decent margin and Singh now has a seat.  Lost Outremont as expected, but with 26% support didn't implode as badly as polls suggest, suggesting some of the east end Island ridings which are more NDP friendly might still be winneable.  Did poorly in York-Simcoe, but never have done well there.

Green Party: Good showing in Outremont, less so in York-Simcoe so based on that and provincial results suggest they can pull off strong results with the right candidate but still have a long ways to go before being a major contender.

BQ: Polls suggest a bounce due to new leader, but results in Outremont suggest otherwise.  Mind you this riding was never that friendly to the BQ to begin with so probably not the best indicator.

PPC:  Strong showing in Burnaby South but bombed the other two.  That suggests they can damage the Tories and cost them seats if they have strong candidates, but with generic ones the Tories have little to worry about and thus only if a superclose election could they play spoiler.