Is the possibility of Dem 2020, Rep 2024 underrated by Atlas?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The assumption seems to be that 2020 is a tossup, but 2024 will be a Democratic victory in either scenario.  I'm not sure I agree with this.  I agree that, if Trump wins in 2020, it will be tough for the Republicans to get a third term in 2024, but I disagree about what happens if Trump loses.  I think the Democratic nominee will be divisive who only hypothetically won due to running against Trump.  2024 would be very much a competitive, maybe even a Tilt R election.  I think we might be in an era of such fast-moving politics that two terms isn't the default assumption.

[TML]

I think that this scenario can happen if the 2020 Democratic nominee is a corporatist/centrist who returns to neoliberalism and suffers from unpopularity by 2024. An unapologetic populist progressive will probably be able to secure a second term if he/she isn't tainted by scandal.

[dw93]

I think that this scenario can happen if the 2020 Democratic nominee is a corporatist/centrist who returns to neoliberalism and suffers from unpopularity by 2024. An unapologetic populist progressive will probably be able to secure a second term if he/she isn't tainted by scandal.

This. If a Democrat beat Trump and there Presidency proves be Bill Clinton/Barack Obama 2.0 (mishandled political capitol in the first two years, tagging to the center after that and being gridlocked), then I agree that 2024 will be a toss up.

[Cassandra]

This is more or less my expectation. I think we have entered an era of successive one-term presidencies. I anticipate the US will be battered by successive economic and ecological crises over the next few decades that will make it difficult for any president to maintain the support required for reelection.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

If the Dem isn't able to pass at least a public option, then I fully expect he/she to be a one term president. (So Democrats really need to step up their game for the senate next year)

[MABA 2020]

Definitely agree with this, I'm very worried the Dems will win the white house next year but narrowly miss out on the Senate. If that happens you can forget MFA or any other Democratic priorities, then without any major achievements the Dem faces a difficult re-election. I don't see 2024 as tilt red in this scenario but definitely a toss up. And yeah I think one term presidents are going to become a lot more common in the next few decades.

[Sir Mohamed]

It could happen if the economy crushes in 2023-24, healthcare reform ends in a mess and the GOP nominates a halfway decent candidate. Usually a sitting prez is favored unless he does very poorly.

[LabourJersey]

This is more or less my expectation. I think we have entered an era of successive one-term presidencies. I anticipate the US will be battered by successive economic and ecological crises over the next few decades that will make it difficult for any president to maintain the support required for reelection.

I definitely agree. This current political era is really volatile and shows no real signs of stability.

Obama may well be the last two-term president for a generation or two. 

[Medal506]

I think the fact that we have so much polarization in this country is a factor that could lead to us having  multiple 1 term President. I would say it's possible that the next two or three presidents after Trump or including Trump could be one term only due to the political climate in the U.S

[YE]

If Trump is narrowly defeated, yes.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think the fact that we have so much polarization in this country is a factor that could lead to us having  multiple 1 term President. I would say it's possible that the next two or three presidents after Trump or including Trump could be one term only due to the political climate in the U.S

More likely than multiple consectutive one termers is that each prez has only a two year window with congressional majorities to get legislative stuff done. The House flips in the first midterm, and even if the prez is reelected, the House stays with the opposition party while the senate gets lost in the second midterm. If at all; the senate could remain under GOP control in 2020 even with a Dem prez. HRC would have had a full GOP congress for her entire term.

[Flyersfan232]

I think the fact that we have so much polarization in this country is a factor that could lead to us having  multiple 1 term President. I would say it's possible that the next two or three presidents after Trump or including Trump could be one term only due to the political climate in the U.S

More likely than multiple consectutive one termers is that each prez has only a two year window with congressional majorities to get legislative stuff done. The House flips in the first midterm, and even if the prez is reelected, the House stays with the opposition party while the senate gets lost in the second midterm. If at all; the senate could remain under GOP control in 2020 even with a Dem prez. HRC would have had a full GOP congress for her entire term.

you could have the house flip back if the president get relected. then flip back after the midterm.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think the fact that we have so much polarization in this country is a factor that could lead to us having  multiple 1 term President. I would say it's possible that the next two or three presidents after Trump or including Trump could be one term only due to the political climate in the U.S

More likely than multiple consectutive one termers is that each prez has only a two year window with congressional majorities to get legislative stuff done. The House flips in the first midterm, and even if the prez is reelected, the House stays with the opposition party while the senate gets lost in the second midterm. If at all; the senate could remain under GOP control in 2020 even with a Dem prez. HRC would have had a full GOP congress for her entire term.

you could have the house flip back if the president get relected. then flip back after the midterm.

Slim possibility. Only time it happend was in 1948 with Truman. In 1996 and 2012, Dems failed to win back the House even though they won the House PV by a small margin in 2012.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yes.