President Henry Cabot Lodge v Senator Hubert Humphrey 1964

[Lincoln Republican]

In 1960, Vice President Richard Nixon narrowly defeats Senator John F. Kennedy to win the Presidency.  John F. Kennedy continued to represent Massachusetts in the United States Senate, and defeated Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Lyndon B. Johnson continued to serve as Senate Majority Leader, and to represent Texas in the United States Senate.     

Electoral map of 1960 election

Richard M. Nixon/Henry Cabot Lodge      271
John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson       247
Unpledged Electors                                   19



In September, 1963, President Nixon is tragically assassinated while on a campaign visit to Detroit, Michigan, an important state in the upcoming 1964 election.

Vice President Henry Cabot Lodge, at his home in Massachusetts at the time, is sworn in as President by a local judge immediately after news of the death of President Nixon has been received.

Immediately after this swearing in, the new President went on air to address the nation, expressing his and Mrs. Lodge's sincere condolences to Pat, Tricia and Julie Nixon, and to assure the nation that he was in charge of the government.

President Lodge and his wife are flown immediately after the swearing in to Washington, DC, where, the following day, President Lodge is sworn in again, by the Chief Justice of the United States, Earl Warren.

Immediately after the swearing in by Chief Justice Warren, President Lodge addresses the nation, to offer condolence and to offer hope to a grieving public.  "A time of tragedy, a time to mourn, a time for courage, a time for renewal, the renewal of the indomitable American spirit."   

In his short time in office, President Nixon had stared down the Soviet threat, and warned Soviet Premier Nikita Khruschev that any attempt to move nuclear warheads into Cuba would fail, and would be met with "swift and effective retaliatory action."  Nixon as well warned the Soviet Union that the United States would not hesitate to invade Cuba unless offensive weapons are removed from Cuban soil "immediately."  This resulted in the Soviets backing down ane removing the offensive weapons from Cuba.

On the domestic side, the Nixon administration was implementing it's "law and order" agenda, and it's "economic revitalization" initiative.

For the 1964 election, the Republicans nominated, without opposition, President Henry Cabot Lodge of Massachusetts for President.  President Lodge, a well known moderate, chose conservative Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona for Vice President, in part to secure the conservative wing of the party.

The Democrats chose respected and experienced liberal Democratic Senator Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota for President.  Senator Humphrey chose Senator Ralph Yarborough of Texas, a southern moderate, but one with a strong record  of support for civil rights, for Vice President. 

How does this 1964 election turn out?
Maps?     

[Lincoln Republican]

Well?

[Dave from Michigan]

this is most likely very wrong but

Humphrey wins RI,MA,NC,FL,TN and MN

a third party state's rights candidate wins MS,Al,AR,LA,SC,GA

nixon wins everything else



if you look at the 1960 %'s  lots of the states were one by less than 5%

since Lodge was a moderate and Humphrey and Lodge both supported the civil rights acts the south votes 3rd party

Lodge due to simpathy from the president died sweeps up the states he lost in 1960 since they were close any way picks up MI,NV,NM,PA,NY,WV,Ct,NJ,MD,DE,HI

Humphrey wins his home state MN

[Erc]

The real question is how much does Goldwater affect the outcome of the race?  Does he act like a LeMay (or get painted as one), undermining the Lodge campaign?  And/or does the Goldwater presence bring the South into the Republican field?

This ends up a lot like 1960 all over again--although I give Humphrey the (very) slight advantage.  Considering it's very unlikely that the Deep South will vote for a Massachusetts Republican or Hubert Humphrey, it could get thrown to the House.

Or Lodge could get the Nixon-sympathy vote, and win pretty big.

[Lincoln Republican]

Election Results 1964

President Henry Cabot Lodge (MA)/Senator Barry Goldwater (AZ)      461
Senator Hubert Humphrey (MN)/Senator Ralph Yarborough (TX)           77

[J. J.]

Lodge gets a lot, but not a Johnson style blowout.  No third party runs.

[Q]

Now that's an alternate history I could live with.

[Erc]

Lodge gets a lot, but not a Johnson style blowout.  No third party runs.

Without Johnson's influence, I find it doubtful that Humphrey would win in Texas.

Sure, he's running against a MA Republican, but still...

[© tweed]

The Dem candidate would likely be Kennedy or Johnson, and not Humphrey.

[J. J.]

Sure, he's running against a MA Republican, but still...

I'm looking at Texas, in the 1960's as still being a Democratic state.  It wasn't reliably Republican to the 1980's.

[Dr. Cynic]

HHH wouldn't have been the candidate. Most likely, Kennedy would return in 64. It was a liberal trend, and I believe JFK-HHH ticket would've won.