Post Random Maps Here 3.0

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2012 election held in 2014:

Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan: 288 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 250 electoral votes and 48% of the popular vote

2016 election held in 2018:

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 334 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 204 electoral votes and 45% of the popular vote

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2016: Ted Cruz vs. Hillary Clinton

Ted Cruz: 312 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton: 226 electoral votes

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2012: President Obama vs. Rick Santorum

President Obama: 294 electoral votes
Rick Santorum: 244 electoral votes

If Santorum won in 2006 and was a more competent candidate:

Rick Santorum: 291 electoral votes
President Obama: 247 electoral votes

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2008: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney

Barack Obama: 389 electoral votes
Mitt Romney: 149 electoral votes

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What was considered to be a competitive election turned into a sleeper for President Collins. Elected as a moderate, Collins governed somewhat as a typical Republican. The Democrats heavily exploited this. However, when Collins nominated a moderate slight conservative rather than a strong conservative to the Supreme Court to replace a liberal, that was enough for moderates nationwide. The Democratic candidate was Sen. Sara Gideon, a very generic Democratic candidate. 

I'll play along:

Incumbent President Joe Manchin was thought to be vulnerable due to not having the support of socially liberal Democrats. But the GOP nominated Patrick Morrisey, Someone who wasn't well known. Joe Manchin won re-election with a weird-looking electoral map. His conservative positions on coal and gun issues allows him to win back many ancestral Democrats. This allows for his home state of WV and even KY to flip. The GOP is able to win back some more socially liberal states but it isn't enough. Manchin wins on the back of the Midwest and the South.

Joe Manchin: 328 electoral votes
Patrick Morrisey: 210 electoral votes

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Clinton 2016 vs. Trump 2020 again with new map.



Trump flips six states and just barely misses VA by 19,000 votes.

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Played 2012 on President Infinity as Santorum with President Obama on easy. After a long fought campaign, I won with this map.



(President Infinity doesn't do congressional districts, but given that Maine at-large was decided by only 8 points, I will assume Santorum was barely able to pull ME-02 out)

PA was a huge disappointment, Obama won that by 0.7%. He also only won MI by 5,000 votes and MN was extremely close too.

I won the popular vote by 200,000.

I picked Tim Pawlenty as running mate in the hopes of flipping MN which failed.

I might run in 2016 with Santorum again and with Pawlenty as running mate.

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I ran as Santorum in 2016 again. I'm assuming Santorum wasn't a popular president as he started with a 5 point deficit to the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden in the polls. Early September definitely seemed to be a low for Santorum but he kept fighting back in the swing states and by the end of September he had a 2.4 point deficit. Biden made up a bit of ground in early October but the election was nearly tied with one week to go. Santorum fought hard and the final poll had Santorum up 0.7%.

Election results rolled in, Every candidate won the usual states and the first swing states to fully report, Virginia and Florida showed Santorum winning. Hopes were high. Ohio and NC were next and Santorum won both as well. Morale was looking higher than ever. I knew Santorum won when PA and NH were reporting Santorum victories. MI was a disappointment again though as Biden won it by the same thin margin Obama won it by 4 years prior. Sadly, Nevada and Wisconsin showed flips to Biden. Santorum still won Colorado and Iowa though.

The map was this and Santorum won that familiar 306 number. (Again, I'm assuming Santorum won ME-02)



Santorum flipped Pennsylvania from 2012 while Biden flipped Nevada and Wisconsin. The popular vote was once again extremely close but Santorum was once again victorious in the popular vote by 1.2%.

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How a Hillary Clinton v. John Kasich 2020 would most likely play out if it were only them in a head to head:



A combination of Dem fatigue, COVID and an unpopular presidency allows Kasich to sweep all the swing states. (Aside from arguably NM, which remains Clinton by 3% or so)

I debated on whether to give MN and ME at large to Kasich but both were close enough in the real 2016 election that assuming all of the conditions I gave out were met, Both would probably flip as well.

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If the country swung like Miami-Dade:

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Average of 2016 and 2020, the 2018 election.

All hell breaks loose.

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https://twitter.com/GabeGuidarini/status/1352001491951886337

Ohio.....What a shame.

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The 2020 election but every state that was decided by a margin of <10% flips:



That is...quite a map.

Therapist: Republican Maine and both Democratic districts doesn't exist, It can't hurt you.

Republican Maine and both Democratic districts:

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Tulsi Gabbard would not win HI and probably wouldn't win CO.

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Just a random map as I try to get the hang of them

Why does Indiana flip?

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Just a random map as I try to get the hang of them

Why does Indiana flip?

Cause everyone hates Josh Hawley.

Hawley is from Missouri.

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2016 election: Trump wins popular vote, Hillary wins electoral college



Hillary Clinton: 272 electoral votes
Donald Trump: 266 electoral votes

Popular vote:

Donald Trump: 47.2%
Hillary Clinton: 46.7%

Protests rage after the election and go on well into Clinton's presidency. Democrats have an abysmal 2018 where they're reduced to about 39 senate seats and 165-ish seats in the House.

Trump gives it another go in 2020 and wins the election with a solid margin in both the electoral college and popular vote.



Donald Trump: 355 electoral votes
President Clinton: 183 electoral votes

Popular vote:

Donald Trump: 52.6%
President Clinton: 45.4%

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President Infinity: Trump gains multiple states from 2016 but still loses the popular vote.

I played as Trump and tried to see what was the weirdest result I could achieve. I put the computers on Easy and I also added a Green candidate to hopefully assist me.



Every state aside from Maine was decided by more than 5%. This inevitably results in some weird swing/trend maps.

Trump also flipped Minnesota, Maine, COLORADO and VIRGINIA from 2016 but still lost the popular vote to Biden by half a point. Gardner, McSally, Loeffler, Perdue, James, Gade and Lewis all pop the champagne as the Republicans are sworn to a 57-43 senate majority and the Republicans win 251 seats in the House.

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If Kerry had put in the effort in VA and picked Warner as his running mate....



✓ Senator John Kerry (D-MA)/Governor Mark Warner (D-VA): 270 EV. (49.20%)
President George W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Joe Biden (R-WY): 268 EV. (50.23%)

November 5th: We can now project that in a massive upset, Senator John Kerry has won the state of Virginia with 13 electoral votes. That along with New Mexico which we have projected for Senator Kerry yesterday puts Senator Kerry at exactly 270 electoral votes, making him the 44th president of the United States. President Bush despite winning the national popular vote by 1.03%, loses with 268 electoral votes.

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A 2020 map with HRC against a strong Republican opponent

I think even Colorado might've flipped. I'm skeptical that Minnesota or Maine-AL would've flipped but I agree that Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Virginia would've flipped. I lean toward a 338-200 result for Kasich in this scenario.

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2020: Cruz wins against incumbent Clinton.



✓ Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)/Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL): 308 EV. (49.61%)
President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA): 230 EV. (48.33%)

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Romney win without Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida:



✓ President Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Vice President Paul Ryan (R-WI): 270 EV. (48.31%)
Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL)/Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH): 268 EV. (50.03%)

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2012 with each state swinging as much as the biggest R swinging county in OTL.

Same idea for 2008. America is sadly not ready for a black President. Illegal disenfranchisement of black southerners was involved however. PA is deciding state for McCain.

This could've been a plausible result had it not been for the crash and Palin.

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Obama 2008 vs. Trump 2020



Interestingly enough, WI and MI still go Obama while CO and VA both narrowly go for Trump. 308-230 Trump win.

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The poster most states remind me of: