Post Random Maps Here 3.0

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2020 election. Harris/Castro vs. Trump/Pence 304 - 234. Thoughts on NC voting ever to the left of FL? My mind tells me FL will be voting to the left of NC for the immediate future, but I thought it was an interesting scenario where white Trump voters surged in central and northern FL whereas they didn't in NC.

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American Presidential Elections - First Round, May 9 2020

Dark Blue - American Identity Party (right to far right, nationalist, anti-immigrant, conservative, economically right)

Light Blue -  Republicans and Conservatives for the People (center right to right, conservative, economically right, neoliberal)

Dark Green - One Nation! (center to center right, big tent, notable factional divide between socially moderate, pro-labor mixed economy wing and socially moderate neoliberal wing, former is most powerful)

Light Green - Greens and Ecologist Party (green, notable factional divide between centrist and center-left conservationists and left-wing socialist greens, former is most powerful)

Pink - Peoples' Social Democratic Party (social democratic, center left to left, mixed economy, socially liberal, pro labor)

Red - Progressive Democracy Party (socialist, democratic socialist, left to far left, mixed economy, notable factional divide between socially liberationist socialist wing and reformist mixed economy wing, latter is most powerful)

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US Governors 2002

Pink - Union for Democracy - Northeast and Midwest, Social Democratic, Urban
Red - Labor and Liberty - Upper Midwest, Appalachia, laborist, socially centrist to socially conservative, economically left of center, protectionist
Maroon - Socialist and Progressive Party - West Coast, socially liberal, economically left
Dark Green - Conservative Bloc - Centrist, Center-right, Rural
Light Green - Greens - Green, ecological social democracy, (New Mexico)
Light Blue - Alliance for Growth and Prosperity - center-right, neoliberal, business, suburban
Blue - Conservative and Family Party - center right to right, socially conservative, focus on families, paleoconservative
Dark Blue - Americana Rising - right to far right - nationalist, conservative, anti-LGBT, Southern Interests

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Don Linton (Republican - New Mexico)/Debra Antoine (R - Pennsylvania) - 457 EVs - 41.87%

Karen Miller (New Democrats - Wisconsin)/Jonathan Eldridge (ND-North Carolina) - 42 EVs - 30.56%

Michael Brower (Democratic - Minnesota)/Louise Dent (D-Maine) - 39 EVs - 27.57%

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Mariam Costas (D-WI)/Simon Shrabell (D-NY) - 538 EVs - 54%

Lou Faber (R-PA)/Gina Lawton (R-OK) - 0 EVs - 30%

E. Frederick Campbell (Nation Party-AL)/Phil Murdoch (R-UT) - 0 EVs - 16%

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United States Senators 2044
Red - Two Dems
Blue - Two GOP
Green - One of each

United States Senators 2057
Red - Two Dems
Blue - Two GOP
Green - One Dem One GOP
Pink - One Dem One SocDem

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Guess.

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Guess.

Something about the death penalty?

Yes!

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It's Williamson vs. Trump.

No matter who wins... We lose...

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1964 Presidential Election

Sen. Richard Garland (R-IL)/Gov. Clifford A. Blomkvist (R-MA) - 373 EVs ~ 47%

Sen. Margaret Eldridge (D-LA)/Gen. Thomas Willard McMann (D-CA) - 151 EVs ~ 40%

Sen. Sylvester Hill (P-MT)/Fmr. Gov. Elton Bromley (P-KS) - 14 EVs ~ 10%

I subtracted 5% from Garland in every state he won, 5% from Eldridge in every state she won and these are the results.

Garland picks up Kentucky, Tennessee, and Maryland and comes within a hair of taking Arkansas and Georgia. However he loses Missouri, South Carolina, and North Carolina to Eldridge, and further loses Montana, Idaho, and Colorado to Hill.

Eldridge of course would lose Kentucky, Tennessee, and Maryland, and all she'd gain would be MO, SC, and NC. She gets 151 in this scenario versus the 148 she got in real life.

Garland would only gain 373 EVs in this scenario versus the 390 he got in real life.

For reference, the actual 1964 results. 390 to 148. 49.1% to 41.3%.

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Guess.

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2024

Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)/Senator Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) - 272 EV - 50.84%

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO)/Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) - 266 EV - 48.06%

GOP Pickups from 2020:
FL
ME
MI
MN
NH

DEM Pickups from 2020:
NE-02

12:45 AM - Vice President Tammy Baldwin is declared the winner of the 2024 election. She has apparently won a majority of the popular vote and has 272 electoral votes to Senator Josh Hawley's 266. It is the closest electoral match since 2000.

Just months ago, it seemed Josh Hawley was on his way to winning the election. A lagging economy in Q1 and Q2 worried the Democrats. They had no leader to rally around since President Biden announced he would not be running for a second term in late-2022. While the move was widely expected, it triggered an unexpected Democratic primary fight. Rep. Rashida Tlaib announced her campaign for the Democratic nomination in January 2023, followed by her moderate opposite Sen. Max Rose. It seemed like another rehash of 2016 and 2020, where the ideological tents of the party were viciously pitted against each other. However, the popular Vice President entered the race in late summer after conflicting reports on whether she'd run. Baldwin quickly amassed popular support as well as important donors. Despite this, the primary was still a struggle. Both Tlaib and Rose had committed supporters and money to spend. Rose scored an upset win in the first-in-the-nation Pennsylvania primary. His victory in New Hampshire put the Baldwin campaign on high alert and forced Tlaib out of the race. However, later knockout wins in Virginia and Nevada put her back on the map and earned her Biden's endorsement. Overwhelming victories on Super Tuesday made her the favorite. Rose dropped out and Tammy Baldwin soon became the first open LGBTQ nominee of any major party.

Baldwin was facing tough prospects. The economy was performing poorly throughout the Spring. Little jobs were created and unemployment was gradually rising. Rural areas were particularly hit. Unemployment in these areas was higher than the nation as a whole. Despite Democrats success in passing M4A in 2023, rural healthcare was in serious duress. Rural hospitals were shuttering as they had been for years and health care was noticeably harder to come by.

Other issues driving the plot were fears of widening civil instability in the country. It seemed there were two countries were emerging, separated by worldviews towards immigration, race, and social issues. Guns factored heavily as well. The La Brea Farmers Market Shooting in August dominated the airwaves and reignited the gun control debate. However, the context of the shooting also sparked dialogue over racism and violence: The shooter, 26 year old Trevor McDouglas, killed 15 people, 11 of which were of Hispanic descent, and claimed he did so to prevent "white genocide". Polls throughout the summer had Hawley leading Baldwin by anywhere from 2 to 12 points. His average lead was 6.7.

However, a rallying economy blunted rising unemployment and the Hospitals and Health Centers Bill was passed by the President, assuaging many Americans' fears. Baldwin began leading in several polls. By October, she had a net favorability rating of +2, beating Hawley's favorability rating of -1, although both were heavily divisive figures. By election day, Hawley only led the polling average by 0.4 points.

It was a long election night in 2024. The Vice President came very close to losing by 10 PM. However, she was saved by Wisconsin, her home state, and North Carolina, where high black turnout was able to just barely nudge those two states to her corner. The Democrats can sigh a breath of relief tonight as they keep the White House and both chambers of Congress.

However, tonight should not be too much of a celebration. Senator Josh Hawley won five states President Biden carried four years ago, including the grand prize of Florida. Hawley won the rural areas in these states decisively and utilized the Trump Machine to turnout white voters in all five flipped states. His VP pick, the popular Ron Desantis, also helped flip Florida.

A noticeable trend in this election is the continued divide between urban-suburban and rural voters. Hawley won Texas and Georgia, two rapidly growing states, by only 2.1 and 2.8 percentage points respectively. Arizona, once a GOP bastion, was won rather comfortably by Baldwin, who carried it 52 to 44 points. North Carolina was carried in part by increased Democratic turnout in major cities and suburbs. North Carolina suburbs have lurched Democratic since 2020, giving Dems major congressional victories in 2022. Baldwin was able to pick up Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which had not gone blue since 2008. The 2nd district is centered on Omaha and its suburbs. The district went blue in 2020 and stayed blue in 2022 and this year as well. In 2018, it had a Republican tilt, but because of continued realignment, now has a Cook PVI of D+2.

Conversely, Hawley became the first Republican candidate since 2000 to carry New Hampshire, and the first since 1988 to carry Maine (although Baldwin was able to win the 1st congressional district and net herself one electoral vote). Vermont was closer as well, going to Baldwin by 56 to Hawley's 44, the biggest GOP voteshare in over twenty years. The GOP made gains in upstate New York and central Pennsylvania as well. However, there is concern among GOP strategists that the party is maxed out among northeastern rural areas. This could spell doom for the party in Pennsylvania, where Dems are becoming the dominant party in suburbs and may regain lost ground among at least some rurals. However, others have pointed out there is still room to grow, perhaps setting the stage for a swing state Pennsylvania. However, a growing Philadelphia and Pittsburgh may make the state tilt Democratic for the time being.

Perhaps the most interesting is the upper Midwest, where Hawley did well in Minnesota and Michigan. Depressed urban turnout in Detroit as well as a surge in rural voters allowed Hawley to eke out a win. Similarly, in Minnesota we saw several ancestral Democratic areas flip solidly to the Republicans. Even with turnout typical in Minneapolis, Hawley again eked out a razor-thin win. There are caveats to this Republican success: Minneapolis is growing, and after decades of population loss, so is Detroit. Baldwin could very well win these two states in 2028 if turnout is high in these growing urban centers.

Unsurprisingly, Hawley won his state. His win of 62.35% to Baldwin's 35.25 is one of the highest GOP voteshares in decades and one of the poorest DEM ones in just as long. Baldwin's performance in Missouri is worse than Clinton and McGovern's.

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Election between political commentators

Rachel Maddow (D-MA)/James Carville (D-LA) 149 EVs
Tucker Carlson (R-CA)/Ben Shapiro (R-CA) 264 EVs
Kyle Kulinski (Progressive-NY)/Cenk Uygur (Progressive-CA) 98 EVs
Nick Fuentes (Nationalist-IL)/James Allsup (Nationalist-OR) 27 EVs

Kulinski/Uyger won't win any state

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Universal VBM

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Universal VBM

R's still win NE-03 and WY.

In an R landslide yes

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American General Election, round 1

Labor Party

Social Democratic Party

Progressive Democrats and Reformers

Liberal Party

Midwestern and Southern Workers' Union

Deseret Party(Utah)

Conservative Party

Ultranationalist Party

Rocky Bloc

Round 2

Labor Party

Social Democratic Party

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2012 Presidential election

Sen. Collin Peterson (D-MN)/Gov. Dan Lipinski (D-IL) 279 EVs; 49.53%
Pres. John McCain (R-AZ)/VP Joe Lieberman (R-CT) 259 EVs; 49.51% PV

2016 Presidential election

Pres. Collin Peterson (D-MN)/VP Dan Lipinski (D-IL) 324 EVs; 52.5%
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) 214 EVs; 46.3% PV

2020 Presidential election

VP Dan Lipinski (D-IL)/Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) 271 EVs; 50.2%
Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD)/Sen. Brian Sandoval (R-NV) 267 EVs; 49.1% PV

This is extremely implausible. Peterson, Lipinski, and Bel Edwards will not make it in any Democratic Pres Primary.

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Workers' Solidarity Union

Democratic Party

Liberal Party

Southern Liberals

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guess

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US Governors map; shading looks like FRIST governors are lighter colors, with swing states not being considered FRIST even if the opposing party won them in 2016.

Not sure what FRIST means but basically

Light red - Dem gov in safe R state on the presidential level

Light blue - Rep gov in safe D state on the presidential level

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Coca-Cola - 306 EVs

Ariana Grande - 232 EVs

From Google Trends. So whacky how similar this looks to election maps. Idaho was surprisingly close (Grande 48 - Cola 52). I feel like Georgia was such a blowout win for Sen. Cola due to Ariana being beat the  out in Atlanta. Thank u, next!

EDIT: Added insurgent 3rd party candidate Dua Lipa. She did not change the EV results.

EDIT: Actually Coca-Cola won DC, so it would be 229 EVs to 309 EVs.

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React to this 2040 map

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JHK simulation

441 - 97 Biden win

Pop vote: 59% Biden, 39% Trump, 2% 3rd party

Curious to see MS and MO flip before KS and MT.

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1988

D: M. Dukakis/L. Bentsen - 272 EVs

R: G.H.W. Bush/D. Quayle - 266 EVs

1992

R: A. Specter/P. Buchanan - 278 EVs

D: M. Dukakis/L. Bentsen - 260 EVs

1996

R: A. Specter/P. Buchanan - 327 EVs

D: B. Clinton/J. Brown - 211 EVs

2000

D: B. Graham/B. Miller - 326 EVs

R: P. Buchanan/R. Shelby - 212 EVs

2004

D: B. Graham/B. Miller - 358 EVs

R. G.W. Bush/B. Frist - 180 EVs

2008

R: M. Romney/R. Santorum - 326 EVs

D: B. Obama/H. Clinton - 212 EVs

2012

D: H. Clinton/T. Kaine - 279 EVs

R. M. Romney/R. Santorum - 259 EVs

2016

D: H. Clinton/T. Kaine - 344 EVs

R: T. Cruz/D. Trump - 194 EVs

2020

R: M. Rubio/N. Haley - 337 EVs

D: T. Kaine/C. C. Masto - 201 EVs