Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[West_Midlander]

Alternate UK Election 2019: Brexit Party and Lib Dems break out

Seat map (left), Gains (right)

Conservative - 28.79% of the vote - 238 seats in the House of Commons
Liberal Democrats - 22.95% - 65 seats
Labour - 21.78% - 160 seats
Brexit Party - 12.24% - 104 seats
Green - 5.24% - 1 seat
SNP - 4.54% - 55 seats
Plaid Cymru - 1.07% - 6 seats
Sinn Féin - 0.59% - 6 seats
DUP - 0.56% - 6 seats
Alliance - 0.52% - 2 seats
UUP - 0.40% - 2 seats
SDLP - 0.39% - 2 seats
Others - 0.94% (combined) - 3 seats (combined)

I think a Conservative-Brexit coalition is likely if these were the results.

Maps and data from principalfish.co.uk

[West_Midlander]

I think you really exaggerated with the Brexit Party... (also with the Lib Dems, but less)

What do you mean? This is a scenario for if those two parties broke out in 2019 and the tool generated who won which seats. I put in the percentages but it doesn't use what you put in exactly (probably bc of minor parties/Indies).

I thought it was strange that Brexit did so well but only had a PV repeat from UKIP 2015 but I think this is bc many of their wins are probably narrow: four-way races only won bc LD did so well too and cut down the major parties, indirectly helping the Brexit Party.

[West_Midlander]

Do you know roughly who won what regions? It looks like the BXP won Yorkshire&H plus the North East, Labour won London and Wales and probably scraped through in the North West, SNP obviously won Scotland, and the Tories won both Midlands Regions plus East Anglia and the South West and East, although the Lib Dems like came close in those two.

I don't. You can see the breakdown by region but I didn't check and I don't know of a way to save a map in that tool.

[West_Midlander]

2040
(snip)

Is Cawthorn supposed to be the incumbent?

[West_Midlander]

Jim Hood v Phil Scott makes this hypothetical a hard decision for me (for who to vote for). Who are the running mates?

[West_Midlander]

Two-term Romney and two-term Hillary is truly the worst timeline

[West_Midlander]

2504 US presidential election


2508 US presidential election

Background: Joe "Not Sure" Bauer is eventually able to get his legal name changed back to Joe Bauer but he is still often called by his nickname, "Not Sure." Climate change ravages the country with most of Florida becoming submerged and with the Mississippi River rising significantly. This contributes to falling populations along the Gulf Coast. Sea levels also rise, stifling population growth, along both oceanic coasts.

Refugees from the nuclear disaster in GA/FL pour into AL, mostly around the Birmingham and N. Alabama area. Inland states see a great influx of population and populations remain somewhat stable along the Great Lakes as water levels rise a bit there also. Southern IL/IN/OH is a refuge for many who had lived in major Great Lakes-adjacent cities. The inner and northern part of California becomes more populated, especially along the state's new coastline. Alaska has a temperate climate now and sea levels have damaged Hawaii badly while severe drought afflicts the American Southwest forcing refugees from the region into Colorado.

I imagine the global population stabilized, perhaps around 9B so the US population is around 500M or perhaps a bit higher. The electoral college/House was increased by only 17 EVs/seats by the 2500s. So each representative represents a little over 1M people (around 1.1M people). Some states badly affected by climate change have only a few hundred thousand people (e.g., Hawaii).

President Camacho won in 2504 by a wider margin than in 2500 but his weakest spots remained along the Sunbelt where climate change affected the country badly and where the drought and Dust Bowl remained prominent.

Plains states also suffered severe drought but these states still had a larger population than IOTL due to people being forced inland by turbulent weather (e.g., stronger hurricanes) and rising sea levels. Super tornadoes, however, remain a major problem in the inner part of the country and especially in the devastated Southwest. Still, conditions remained marginally better in the interior compared to the fringes of the nation.

President Bauer lost some populous inland states due to Brawndo being a major employer in those states (and others), employing 1/2 of the adult population altogether. Climate-challenged regions were also resistant to a Bauer presidency but less so than under Camacho. Bauer is on track to win re-election comfortably in 2512.

[West_Midlander]

[West_Midlander]

Fictional 2064 US Presidential Election

Faithless elector laws were ruled unconstitutional under the 1st Amendment in the 2050s allowing the Green Party candidate to be elevated over the initial frontrunner, Hargreaves. The Democrats and Forward encouraged their electors to vote for Roy ahead of the electoral college vote, giving Roy a majority on that day.

[West_Midlander]

Dobbs Backfires: Blue Wave 2022

[West_Midlander]

"We're winning so much, we're tired of winning. And you're saying, 'Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too much.' -- Kamala Harris on election night 2024 in a paraphrase of Donald Trump, 2016

(This is a continuation of my last post where Democrats swept the midterms.)

The NPV is 45-28%-23%. Senator McMullin is the Forward Party candidate and wins 23%.

[West_Midlander]

US Political Makeup after 2022

Governors


State Legislative Makeup



Trifectas


18-18-14

Congressional Delegations
(large circle = US Senate delegation, small circle = US House delegation


Not a prediction

[West_Midlander]

Self insert



House Whip WB (D-AL)/Gov. Ethan Sonneborn (D-VT): 50.9%
President Francis X. Suarez (R-FL)/Vice President Andrew Sorrell (R-AL): 47.8%
Others: 1.3%

WB (D-AL)
Representative from Alabama's 7th congressional district (2033-2045)
House Majority Whip (2041-2045)
President-elect (2044 election)

Ethan Sonneborn (D-VT)
Mayor of Bristol, VT (2029-2033)
State Senator (2033-2037)
Governor of Vermont (2037-2045)
Vice President-elect (2044 election)

Francis X. Suarez (R-FL)
Mayor of Miami (2017-2025)
Sec. of Housing and Urban Development (2029-2033)
Governor of Florida (2035-2041)
President (2041-2045)

Andrew Sorrell (R-AL)
State Representative (2018-2022)
State Auditor (2023-2027)
Governor of Alabama (2027-2033)
Senator from Alabama (2033-2041)
Vice President (2041-2045)

The most doubtful part is being able to serve for 12 years representing a majority black district as a white Democrat. I mean, look what happened to Capuano.

[West_Midlander]

2024 election in the Republican states if "national divorce" was realized. SC was very close and TX, where Trump won by 0.7%, decided the presidency. Based on recent state polling.

[West_Midlander]

1924: Fourth Time's the Charm

[West_Midlander]

2020

Alternate timeline where Hillary is elected in 2016 and the FEC draws new lines after the Democracy Protection Act of 2017 hands redistricting powers to that organization. This benefits Clinton unfairly. The country is also Maine-ruled to "better reflect the residents of states who vote for the opposition party." ITTL, Congress with the President's support, can pass constitutional changes without needing to send it to the states. In 2020, Clinton loses by 4.7% nationally in the popular vote since the Act is unpopular. Clinton had a trifecta from 2017-19 and lost the Senate in 2018. The gerrymandered House protected the Democratic House majority. I used the Maine rule for this map but one could draw "electoral vote districts" and come to a more unfair result if wanted.

[West_Midlander]

2024


Democrats in a midnight session of Congress and with a narrow quorum in the Senate, with VP Kaine presiding, overturn term limits allowing Clinton to run again. She loses by about twenty points nationally but her districts are so strongly gerrymandering that she persists. Even if her coalition began to fail she could afford to lose 28 marginal districts and still win. I tried to keep the numbers realistic. The Texas numbers are roughly based on the margins (of U.S. House seats) I was able to get as a Democrat gerrymandering Texas in The Political Process.

2028


VP Huma Abedin, who was Clinton's running mate in 2024, ran for President. The Democrats improved in some states through mid-decade redistricting and fell short in a few marginal seats. Abedin lost the NPV by 7%. Republicans have held onto the majority in the Senate from 2018 through 2028. Democrats hope to gain the Senate again to pass unicameralism or a proportional Senate if they are able to win a trifecta in 2030.

[West_Midlander]

2032

The House was marginally increased in size in 2030. President Abedin ran for a second term and fell a bit short of her 2028 numbers but she managed to win the popular vote 41%-35%-23%. The Abedin camp felt secure at the start of the election.

Sanders ran as a center-left candidate who promised to bring change, hoping to run up his numbers with those on the anti-establishment left and among moderates. Larry Hogan ran for President as a Republican and competed with Sanders for the center column of voters. This led to Abedin winning many historic swing states. After the election, the result was widely noted as a backfiring of the Democratic-installed electoral system which secured the party the White House since 2020. This is because the electoral map likely would have secured a Democratic victory under the previous FPTP voting system, as it did in the similar 1992 election. This was also shown by the fact that the Democratic gerrymander broke apart in many but not nearly all states, giving way to many narrow Republican wins in the House, especially in Florida, and in Georgia where the Maine rule secured a majority of the state's electoral votes for the Republicans when the Democrats won the popular vote in the state.

Hogan worked tirelessly to keep conservative voters engaged while a significant number stayed home, especially in solidly conservative states. The Progressives ran candidates for the U.S. House and recruited from the Democratic Party's ranks as well. Notably, the Progressives were also lambasted by the Democrats as not living up to their name. Abedin said "the Democratic party is the only home of progressives in America."

In a stunning result, the electoral college was deadlocked although faithless elector laws prevented an outright victory for Hogan at the electoral college even with Sanders' support. Anti-Democratic victories also secured the U.S. House in a Republican-Progressive coalition. Democrats, however, remained the largest party in the House but did not have a majority alone. The new Republican majority promised new appointments to the FEC to draw fair districts for 2032.

On the second round in the U.S. House, Larry Hogan was elected President with over 30 state delegations voting for him in the contingent election thanks to Progressive cooperation without which his victory would not have been possible. Sanders was subsequently elected in the Senate, as Vice President. The new Republican-Progressive trifecta promised a national popular vote and a subsequent raising of the threshold for constitutional amendments.

Some Democrats called for machinations to keep Abedin in power which some argued was possible under the 25th Amendment. However, Abedin conceded after the contingent election since trying to hold onto power even more blatantly than was already done after 2017 would possibly lead to Civil War.

The Democratic Party subsequently collapsed in 2033 and was replaced by the new Liberal Party whose ranks were formed primarily by local politicians and those who did not have a direct hand in the Maine-ruling of the nation.

[West_Midlander]

2016

[West_Midlander]

Inspired by the life expectancy county map that's been circulating on Twitter, here's a close electoral map based on life expectancy by state (using 2020 data).

[West_Midlander]

My Not-So-Realistic Alternate 2024 Where Only Candidates I Like Run