Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[bagelman]

% of total population living in their capital's metro area.

Less informative than simply the largest metro but still moderately interesting.

[bagelman]

2016 with trends reversed. Despite nearly losing the popular vote, Democrats still get away with a 303-235 EV win, a landslide in comparison. The blue midwestern wall holds, leaving Republicans stumped.

Results in Utah:

R: 76.81%
L: 11.90%
D: 11.29%

[bagelman]

2012 with trends reversed. Ohio voting R while Indiana and Missouri both vote D indicate that perhaps the Republicans over-focused or had some sort of major advantage in my home state. Net gain for Republicans vs. OTL because of Florida.

[bagelman]

2008 with trends reversed.

2004 with trends reversed. Major gains for Republicans.

2000 with trends reversed is just as much of a mess as OTL 2000. Missouri, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Ohio are all disputed.

[bagelman]

1992

George Bush wins reelection. Perot doesn't run.

1996

John Kerry, who married into the Heinz fortune, wins the Democratic primary after caking his moderate opponent in mud. Kerry loses popular vote and win electoral college by a minuscule margin against Bob Dole.

2000

Kerry wins another squeaker, although at least this one's over before December. 

2004

Democrats win again. Major controversy over the winner of the popular vote. Some democrats just outright say it doesn't matter.

2008

George W. Bush, son of the latest Republican president, is nominated to take back the white house for the first time since his father was president. He just barely fails thanks to Florida "bucking it up".

2012

Republicans finally regain the White House for the first time this century, winning a "time for change"/"lower my taxes" landslide. Republicans nationwide also demand the abolition of the electoral college, and this is one of the new administration's first accomplishments.

The incumbent is the favorite to win reelection in 2016, but not quite safe.

[bagelman]

1976 with trends reversed, parties also reversed for the scenario.

The world watches nervously as the United States holds it's bicentennial elections. In this timeline the north vs. south party system never ended. The Republicans still include a sizeable progressive wing, moderating the interests of "whigs" within both parties. This year, their candidate stands for civil rights above all else: whether there be a system of activist government or capitalism, all men and women must have the right to succeed in that system. The Democrats stand for Southern Values, although they try to appeal to other groups such as rocky mountain populists and the planter aristocracy entrenched in Hawaii.

[bagelman]

1988 with trends reversed

This would be a clear R win, but gives the Dems a base from which to emerge from the wilderness.

1992 with trends reversed. The result is fewer states with the winner under 40, more with the winner above 50, and the Democrat is obviously from Iowa while the Republican might be from Arkansas.

[bagelman]

Last night I dreamt that Rashida Tlaib somehow became the 2020 Democratic nominee and she was soundly defeated by Donald Trump. Trump expanded the map with Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire and won the popular vote. Even though it was horrible, Democrats were confident to take the senate in 2022 and Gretchen Whitmer emerged as 2024 frontrunner.

President Trump (R-NY) 326

Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) 212

Senate 2020: R+2 (MI, AL, WV - CO) (Manchin switches parties after Democratic primaries)

Senate 2022: D+7 ( - AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC, PA, WI)

2023 US Senate:

[bagelman]

Had a dream last night that Beto was funded by his drug trafficking empire, ran as a third party, and picked Ellen Page as his VP. He also owned a bar, which I think was the HQ for his drug trafficking empire.

Senator Bernie Sanders / Senator Jeff Merkley 279

President Donald Trump / Vice President Mike Pence 259

Former Congressman Robert F. O'Rourke / Actress Ellen Page 0

2020 was assumed to be a Democratic landslide in the making after the October Shock of the previous year, but the party was deeply divided. Former congressman and failed Texas senatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke, who had mysteriously dropped out just before the primaries*, stood on the sidelines cheering for the "pragmatic" wing of the party first represented by Joe Biden and later by Kamala Harris. However, they were defeated by the revitalized progressive opposition, united from the start behind Bernie Sanders.

*had to sort out serious issues within his drug organization

Beto was furious as the prospect of a general election between two protectionist nominees. With more free time on his hands and bursting with his trademark brand of punk rocker energy, Beto thrust himself into the national spotlight once again....

In the end, just like the Perot before him, Beto did not actually win any electoral votes. While he ran with policy position that distinguished him with both other candidates, Beto ran more as a rockstar than a serious candidate. His choice of running mate was a Canadian actress ineligible for the presidency who happened to be insanely popular on Twitter that year, and in a year where both major candidates were criticized as demagogues Beto's rallies were more like rock concerts than either of them.

Just as his detractors feared, Beto acted as a spoiler for Sanders in the general election. What could have been a rout turned into a nailbiter as important states remained uncalled well into the night. In the end, Sanders pulled it off with a clear popular vote victory due to Beto's weakness in the midwest and his mistake of not visiting Wisconsin. Wisconsin was the closest state, and Beto did relatively poorly there. Beto still spoiled Bernie in Florida and Arizona, and possibly Ohio and Iowa, totaling 64 electoral votes given to the embattled incumbent President Trump. Beto's best state was New Mexico, which was only barely Democratic enough to prevent him from winning. He also did very well in California, with enough voters willing to go for him in a safe state that Sanders was held below a majority.

While Beto tried to become a mere celebrity bartender after his election, the real drama occurred during the Sanders presidency. It was then when the FBI and NSA discovered just what Beto was doing on the side running a hilariously unprofitable bar in El Paso. Naturally there was a media circus over the man's trial and conviction, and uncovering of crimes both his and worse ones committed by subordinates. President Sanders never spoke his name, and forbade anyone in the administration from even alluding to the trial. President Merkley, upon assuming office after Bernie Sanders died in 2023, continued this policy.

2024: Jeff Merkley wins a full term in office against Tom Cotton

2028: Jeff Merkley is defeated in a bid for a second full term.

It was only in January 2029 when lame duck President Merkley, having been defeated in a bid for a second full term in office by a scion of the Trumpist "National Conservative" movement, opened his mouth. Out poured a stream of anger and profanity none had witnessed from a sitting president in centuries. The candidate who was a rockstar, who was a kingpin, and both so much more and less than both, was given his due.

Beto O'Rouke would die in custody just a few years later. Some say the circumstances were suspicious, but none are opening their mouth.

Legal disclaimer: This post is based on someone else's dream and does not imply that Beto is a drug kingpin.

[bagelman]

Had a dream last night that Beto was funded by his drug trafficking empire, ran as a third party, and picked Ellen Page as his VP. He also owned a bar, which I think was the HQ for his drug trafficking empire.

snip

What if this did happen

If you change Beto from a major drug kingpin into an overconfident neoliberal who gets in trouble for some reason after running a silly independent campaign then you have a realistic Bernie victory future timeline. Never say never.

[bagelman]

1968 with all Wallace voters for Nixon. Result unsurprising.

Above combined with 1964. 362-176 Democratic victory. New Mexico votes R by just over 3100 votes.

[bagelman]

Southern Democrats:

1968 with all Wallace voters for the Hump. 453-79 with 6 awaiting recount. Oregon votes D by 116 votes and may change based on recounting.

An unstable coalition:

Above averaged out with (NOT the same as combined with) 1972. 398-140 R.

[bagelman]

2016 averaged with 1976

2004 averaged with 1976

Both use 92-96-00 apportionment.

[bagelman]

Warren Harding (239) vs. Alf Landon (288)

[bagelman]

Average of all midterms elections in states with more than one statewide elections, usually a gubernatorial and senatorial race at once.

[bagelman]

What will happen if Joe Biden is nominated:

Biden 308, Trump 230

Ron DeSantis defeats Joe Biden's handpicked successor, who only barely scrapped by in the primaries.

The Progressives have a shot in the 2028 Democratic primaries but they'll be up against an incumbent Republican far stronger than Donald Trump.

[bagelman]

2020 County Maps: IceSpear was right/Massive Urban-Rural Divide

Why would Leelanau MI flip?

[bagelman]

1896 as an election about Compulsory Education, R for and wins, D against.

[bagelman]

A)

B)

I hope you don't expect anyone to make any guesses as to what these maps are with zero context.

[bagelman]

If these are IOTL maps you should move them to a dedicated thread, probably in another subforum, for easier reference.

Here are some sillier maps: precinct results for geographically extreme points of every state...that has one as a point, as opposed to a flat border, which are gray.

Purple means a tied precinct, very soft green means no voters in the area of the extreme point.

NORTH:

SOUTH:

(For this one the precinct in CA, Clinton 2-0, was merged with a more populated neighboring geographical runner up that was strongly Trump for some reason. Also MO is an estimate of a particularly small border)

EAST:

WEST:

[bagelman]

3730 presidential election results

Obama / Biden: 411,075,044 (555 EV) 41.65%

McCain / Palin: 344,542,363 (255 EV)  35.14%

Nader / Gonzalez: 2,643,716 (0 EV) 0.27%

Barr / Root: 1,776,251 (0 EV) 0.2%

Others: 2,716,633 (0 EV) 0.28%

[bagelman]

Lincoln's MOV in 1860 is subtracted from Trump's MOV.

Only ultra-pro Lincoln states of PA and MI, both very close in 2016, are flipped. WI goes into recount and becomes FL 2000 as Trump leads by hundreds of votes. 

[bagelman]

Clinton '16 + Clinton '96 MOV and Trump '16 + Perot '96 raw votes.

Trump flips NV and VA while Clinton gains more in the PV. Even in '96 Democrats had concentration problem.

Same with '92 instead of '96:

Populist billionaire blowout. Trump wins PV by 11 million.

[bagelman]

Trump wins 280-258

Stranger things have happened...

[bagelman]

My version, the same functionally but with some margin changes here and there:

NM is solidly Bush, and OR votes to the right of PA. FL is the closest state, again.