Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[Calthrina950]

Here's another map for the Ferguson Scenario. This map depicts the county flips from the 2008 to 2012 elections:

Henry Ferguson picks up 1,095 counties that Mitt Romney won in 2008, while Romney picks up just two Kucinich counties (Acadia and Vermilion Parishes, Louisiana). The universal swing of every state towards Ferguson is in evidence on this map. The county swing is comparable to those of 1964 and 1976, when Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter picked up 1,362 and 1,582 counties, respectively, in those years.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Henry Ferguson picks up 1,095 counties that Mitt Romney won in 2008, while Romney picks up just two Kucinich counties (Acadia and Vermilion Parishes, Louisiana). The universal swing of every state towards Ferguson is in evidence on this map. The county swing is comparable to those of 1964 and 1976, when Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter picked up 1,362 and 1,582 counties, respectively, in those years.

What happened in those two parishes? Especially considering that Ferguson picked up several surronding ones?

[Calthrina950]

Henry Ferguson picks up 1,095 counties that Mitt Romney won in 2008, while Romney picks up just two Kucinich counties (Acadia and Vermilion Parishes, Louisiana). The universal swing of every state towards Ferguson is in evidence on this map. The county swing is comparable to those of 1964 and 1976, when Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter picked up 1,362 and 1,582 counties, respectively, in those years.

What happened in those two parishes? Especially considering that Ferguson picked up several surronding ones?

I didn't think of anything in particular-but possibly somewhat of a Republican trend in Cajun Country.  The maps which I used for Louisiana happened to have different results in those parishes, and it makes since that there would be somewhere which would go against the national patterns.

[CookieDamage]

2017 US General Election

Democratic-Republican-Labor Party - Phil Wisnewski (NC)/Angela Linden (NY)

National Conservative Party (Whigs) - Bill Ford Sr. (TN)/Michael MacMarron (ME)

Green Party - Mariana Berger (NY)/Stephen Kell (OR)

Social Democratic Party - Dan French (AZ)/Various

[Calthrina950]

And here's the second county flip map from the Ferguson Scenario, depicting the flips which took place from 2012 to 2016:

692 counties that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 shift to President Ferguson. Once again, there is a near-universal swing towards the President, except for in Alabama, Pryor's home state, which is the only state that swings Republican. Alabama is one of only two states (alongside Hawaii) where Ferguson gains no counties, and the only one of the lower 48 where no counties change allegiances; Pryor improves his percentage over Romney by outperforming him in rural Northern Alabama, Shelby County, Mobile County, and in Madison County (Huntsville). Elsewhere, some of the heaviest Ferguson gains are recorded in rural New York and Pennsylvania (with Ferguson winning every county in the former state and all but four in the latter), and he also makes significant gains in the Romney states which he flips (Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming), with fewer in the swing state of Florida.

Ferguson picks up the lone Romney counties in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, turning those into all-county sweeps for the Democrats, and he gains all of the Romney counties in Alaska, New Jersey, and Illinois, producing the same effect in those states. Overall, Ferguson wins 2,352 counties in 2016, compared to 792 for William Pryor. This is more then the number of counties Johnson carried in 1964, but fewer then the number carried by every Republican since Richard Nixon (except for Gerald Ford in 1976, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Bob Dole in 1996 in OTL). It is far more then the 490 Hillary Clinton won in OTL 2016. Ferguson wins all but three of Clinton's counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry Counties, Georgia) and the majority of Trump's counties.

[Canis]

Best preforming Republican nominee since 2000
Bush 2004 291
Trump 2016 161
Bush 2000 69
Romney 2012 17

Best preforming Democratic Nominee since 2000

Obama 2008 278
Clinton 2016 139
Gore 2000 69
Obama 2012 52

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Best preforming Republican nominee since 2000
Bush 2004 291
Trump 2016 161
Bush 2000 69
Romney 2012 17

Best preforming Democratic Nominee since 2000

Obama 2008 278
Clinton 2016 139
Gore 2000 69
Obama 2012 52

The Romney 2012 states are not shocking, but it is interesting that those are the only two.

Speaking of 2012, gold works better on the forum than yellow. Gold isn’t listed as an option, but you can replace yellow with gold in the coding.

[Canis]

After making my previous map I wanted to see who would win between the 2 worst preforming tickets from either party and I used vote share instead of margin for this map  

Kerry/Edwards 275 49.6%
McCain/Palin 263 50.4%
I also decided to check out the two best preforming tickets Obama/Biden 2008  vs Bush/Cheney 2004

Obama/Biden 347 52.83%
Bush/Cheney 191 47.16%

[Canis]

Best preforming Republican nominee since 2000
Bush 2004 291
Trump 2016 161
Bush 2000 69
Romney 2012 17

Best preforming Democratic Nominee since 2000

Obama 2008 278
Clinton 2016 139
Gore 2000 69
Obama 2012 52

The Romney 2012 states are not shocking, but it is interesting that those are the only two.

Speaking of 2012, gold works better on the forum than yellow. Gold isn’t listed as an option, but you can replace yellow with gold in the coding.

Ah thank you! I fixed it

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Which Republican presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

Donald Trump 2016

Mitt Romney 2012

John McCain 2008

George W. Bush 2004

Ronald Reagan 1984

Richard Nixon 1972

Dwight Eisenhower 1956

Dwight Eisenhower 1952

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Which Democratic presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

Hillary Clinton 2016

Barack Obama 2012

Barack Obama 2008

Bill Clinton 1996

Bill Clinton 1992

Jimmy Carter 1976

Lyndon Johnson 1964

Franklin Roosevelt 1932

[Calthrina950]

Which Democratic presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

Hillary Clinton 2016

Barack Obama 2012

Barack Obama 2008

Bill Clinton 1996

Bill Clinton 1992

Jimmy Carter 1976

Lyndon Johnson 1964

Franklin Roosevelt 1932

This is an interesting set of maps. Do you have any thoughts on the second county flips map which I posted?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is an interesting set of maps. Do you have any thoughts on the second county flips map which I posted?

Well, that one seems pretty standard. The huge glut of Yankee Republican counties in Pennsylvania/New York is the most interesting part, I imagine it is a Lyndon Johnson ripoff (where he incredibly flipped counties that had never gone D and won them by landslide margins, in that area).

[Calthrina950]

This is an interesting set of maps. Do you have any thoughts on the second county flips map which I posted?

Well, that one seems pretty standard. The huge glut of Yankee Republican counties in Pennsylvania/New York is the most interesting part, I imagine it is a Lyndon Johnson ripoff (where he incredibly flipped counties that had never gone D and won them by landslide margins, in that area).

I'd made a minor mistake with the map (coloring in San Diego County), but I've fixed it. Otherwise, that is a major similarity with 1964.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Taylor Swift/Ro Khanna 400 EV
Kanye West/Joel Osteen 138 EV

Kanye West’s second presidential run, while more successful than his 2020 run, was certainly no less bizarre. West demanded that he be stricken from the ballot in a number of reliably Republican states, in many cases leaving Governor Swift and Representative Khanna as the only ticket on the ballot. West also dumped money into several states that were previously seen as reliably Democratic. Journalists at the Ye for President headquarters in Cody, Wyoming reported that West was ecstatic when Oregon was narrowly called for the West/Osteen ticket.

[LabourJersey]

1972 Presidential Election

Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY)/Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC): 300 electoral votes, 51.0%
President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Vice President Spiro T. Agnew (R-MD): 238 electoral votes, 48.6%

[Calthrina950]

Here's my latest map for the Ferguson Scenario. This map depicts which counties in 2016 were won by either Ferguson or Pryor by a margin of less than 5%. There are 442 such counties, of which 268 are won by Ferguson and 174 by Pryor. Among the notable counties where Ferguson wins by less than 5% are Orange and Kern Counties, California; Douglas County, Colorado; Volusia County, Florida; Henrico County, Virginia; Virginia Beach City, Virginia; Loudoun County, Virginia; Waukesha County, Wisconsin; Jefferson County, Alabama; and Anne Arundel County, Maryland.

Notable counties where Pryor wins by less than 5% include Tulsa County, Oklahoma; Madison County, Mississippi; Duval County, Florida; Johnson County, Kansas; and Delaware County, Ohio.

[VPH]

America First Party Primary, 2020

In its 2020 Presidential primary, the America First Party nominated Tulsi Gabbard for President after a hotly contested race.

Tulsi Gabbard (HI-SEN) - 33%
Josh Hawley (MO-SEN) - 31%
Thomas Massie (KY-05) - 23%
Jesse Ventura (Fmr. MN-GOV) - 13%

Gabbard ran towards the party's left, sweeping up support from Kucinich 2012 backers and younger voters as well as more moderate working-class voters turned off by Hawley's evangelical right-wing views. Emphasizing a message both conservative and pragmatic, she leveraged her combat experience and work with other parties in the Senate to unite various elements of the America First Party. Her platform included support for environmentalism, a family subsidy, antitrust enforcement, wall street reform, border security, and nuclear non-proliferation. Gabbard, in presenting a bold platform for restoring deindustrializing areas, attracted support from the Rust Belt voters Hawley thought he would win. Additionally, the rejection of Trump's loss 4 years ago helped her beat Hawley, associated with the former nominee.

Hawley ran to Gabbard's right on social issues and won many rural areas, especially in the South. His platform included far more drastic cuts to legal immigration, breaking up big tech, education reform, exiting the WTO, and tax cuts for the middle class. Hawley was widely seen as a protege of 3-time party nominee Patrick Buchanan and 2012 nominee Walter Jones Jr, conservative on social issues and more populist on economics. However, Hawley was also associated with Donald Trump after he (then Missouri Lt. Governor) endorsed Trump in 2016 early in the primary. This damaged his support due to Trump's performance and to boot, many of Trump's voters picked Ventura this election, leaving Hawley fall just short of a victory.

Thomas Massie ran as part of the party's localist wing, emphasizing decentralization of government, enhanced whistleblower protection, withdrawal from the UN, and an end to the Federal Reserve. His late surge was not expected, although perhaps it should have been with the level of support from the party's liberty-loving faction. Living on an organic farm in Kentucky, Massie campaigned frequently with Ron Paul, the renowned Texas Congressman who engineered the relatively successful America First-Libertarian unity ticket of 2004. Massie also enjoyed the support of author and poet Wendell Berry, one of the most beloved America Firsters.

Finally, rounding out the field was Former Minnesota Governor Jesse Venture, who ran an anti-establishment bid with eclectic positions. Ventura sought not just the legalization of marijuana (a position shared with less zeal by Tulsi Gabbard and Thomas Massie) but the decriminalization of all drugs, aggressive antitrust enforcement, a balanced budget amendment, and land use reform. His brash style, echoing Trump's, made up for his lack of institutional support and allowed him to cut into Josh Hawley's margins.

[OBD]

History Repeats

2020

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) 407 EVs 55.1%
President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 131 EVs 40.9%

The Biden Presidency is largely a success for the Democratic establishment, with reforms like Roe v. Wade codified, a national popular vote, a comprehensive green energy plan, and a public option passing a friendly Congress. Sadly, President Joe Biden passes away in July 2023, and Vice President Kamala Harris succeeds him. Harris is largely unopposed in the primary as she runs further to the left than she did in 2020.

2024

President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC) 53.0%
Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD) / Fmr. St. Treasurer Josh Mandel (R-OH) 32.3%
Businessman Donald Trump Jr. (Populist-FL) / Singer Kanye West (Populist-CA) 12.2%

President Harris defeats a fractured opposition in a lightly contested election. Her full term is less successful than the previous, though, with a more hostile Congress and intensified infighting between the party's Center and Left. That said, universal RCV is passed near-unanimously, thanks to conservatives still hurting from 2024's split vote result. In a surprising turn, Harris announces in early 2027 that she would not be running for re-election. Commerce Secretary and former Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley defeats Vice President Cooper in a competitive primary. On the Republican side, FOX News icon Tucker Carlson defeats a fractured establishment opposition.

2028
final round results

Commerce Sec. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) /  Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez(D-NY) 54.6%
Talk Show Host Tucker Carlson (R-CA) / Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) 45.1%

Carlson turns out to be a weak campaigner, and Merkley wins a landslide election on the back of a strong economy. However, it wasn't meant to be. In October 2029, the Chinese market crashed hard, ushering in a Second Great Depression. While Merkley tried harder than his predecessor Hoover to mitigate its effects, it wasn't enough to placate the angry public. 2032 is poised to be a Republican bloodbath...

[Canis]

currently making a county version of this map about 15 states done will post the final version when complete

Best preforming Democratic Nominee since 2000

Obama 2008 278
Clinton 2016 139
Gore 2000 69
Obama 2012 52

 

[Calthrina950]

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:

Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

[morgankingsley]

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:

Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

For the sake of statistical purposes, what would the reverse be? Trump winning by Harding levels

[Calthrina950]

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:

Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

For the sake of statistical purposes, what would the reverse be? Trump winning by Harding levels

It would be an absolute bloodbath for the Democrats, just like 1920 was (though on an even greater scale):

Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-60.35%-535 EV
Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-34.12%-3 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

Trump would win all 50 states, with Biden carrying only the District of Columbia. Biden almost certainly would do better than 64% there (again, this is a universal swing), and would probably get a share similar to that of George McGovern (who got 78% in DC against Richard Nixon). But otherwise, this is a good (and frightening) map. Trump would carry California, Hawaii, and Vermont with pluralities, similar to how Biden would carry Arkansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Utah with pluralities in the parallel scenario. In the Trump landslide scenario, Biden would be destroyed at Cox like proportions, but throughout the entire country, rather than just outside of the South.

[LabourJersey]

Mr. Donald J. Trump Jr. (R-MT)/Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): 281 Electoral Votes, 47.4%
Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Vice President Phil Murphy (D-NJ): 257 Electoral Votes, 50.2%

[John King wannabe]

Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-MT)/Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): 281 Electoral Votes, 47.4%
Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Vice President Phil Murphy (D-NJ): 257 Electoral Votes, 50.2%

No.