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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #850 on: November 11, 2020, 08:45:30 PM »


Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware) / Senator Elizabeth Warren (Democratic, Massachusetts) 279 electoral votes, 50% popular votes
Mr. Donald John Trump (Republican, New York) / Governor Michael Richard Pence (Republican, Indiana) 259 electoral votes, 46% popular votes
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bagelman
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« Reply #851 on: November 11, 2020, 11:37:13 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2022, 05:07:42 PM by bagelman »



What was considered to be a competitive election turned into a sleeper for President Collins. Elected as a moderate, Collins governed somewhat as a typical Republican. The Democrats heavily exploited this. However, when Collins nominated a moderate slight conservative rather than a strong conservative to the Supreme Court to replace a liberal, that was enough for moderates nationwide. The Democratic candidate was Sen. Sara Gideon, a very generic Democratic candidate.  
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #852 on: November 11, 2020, 11:43:12 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2022, 05:06:08 PM by bagelman »



Most expected Sen. Cal Cunningham to easily waltz to a win against unpopular southern fried incumbent President Thom Tillis. However an October surprise showed Cunningham sexting like a sorry little frat boy while running for President. Cunningham is slightly favored to win what's out, but if he loses anything like his surprise loss in WI he will have blown it for blow!
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Transgender for Everybody
Peebs
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« Reply #853 on: November 11, 2020, 11:45:23 PM »

That's not very historically sexy of you.
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #854 on: November 12, 2020, 10:55:57 AM »



What was considered to be a competitive election turned into a sleeper for President Collins. Elected as a moderate, Collins governed somewhat as a typical Republican. The Democrats heavily exploited this. However, when Collins nominated a moderate slight conservative rather than a strong conservative to the Supreme Court to replace a liberal, that was enough for moderates nationwide. The Democratic candidate was Sen. Sara Gideon, a very generic Democratic candidate. 

I'll play along:



Incumbent President Joe Manchin was thought to be vulnerable due to not having the support of socially liberal Democrats. But the GOP nominated Patrick Morrisey, Someone who wasn't well known. Joe Manchin won re-election with a weird-looking electoral map. His conservative positions on coal and gun issues allows him to win back many ancestral Democrats. This allows for his home state of WV and even KY to flip. The GOP is able to win back some more socially liberal states but it isn't enough. Manchin wins on the back of the Midwest and the South.

Joe Manchin: 328 electoral votes
Patrick Morrisey: 210 electoral votes
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #855 on: November 13, 2020, 11:28:43 AM »

Ossoff Elected First Jewish President



Ossoff-386
Dan Sullivan-152
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MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #856 on: November 13, 2020, 11:53:09 AM »

Ossoff Elected First Jewish President



Ossoff-386
Dan Sullivan-152
Looks like a possible 2028 or 2032 map.
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Transgender for Everybody
Peebs
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« Reply #857 on: November 13, 2020, 12:31:21 PM »

Missouri voting to the left of Iowa is woke.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #858 on: November 13, 2020, 12:45:43 PM »


Ossoff picked Missouri Gov. Stephen Webber as his running mate.

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Trump v. Wong Kim Ark
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #859 on: November 13, 2020, 01:47:05 PM »

1840:

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 185 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 109 EV




1844:

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 164 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 111 EV




1848:

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 168 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 122 EV




1852:

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 172  EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 124 EV


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EastOfEden
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #860 on: November 13, 2020, 02:11:09 PM »

Ossoff Elected First Jewish President



Ossoff-386
Dan Sullivan-152

Ossoff is a much better fit for Iowa than for Ohio or Missouri.

Also, Stephen Webber? lol, no chance. No chance of him becoming governor, or of being chosen as a running mate, or of swinging the state.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #861 on: November 13, 2020, 03:10:35 PM »

Ossoff Elected First Jewish President



Ossoff-386
Dan Sullivan-152

Ossoff is a much better fit for Iowa than for Ohio or Missouri.

Also, Stephen Webber? lol, no chance. No chance of him becoming governor, or of being chosen as a running mate, or of swinging the state.

Stephen Webber flips MO and he has appeal in Ohio. Iowa becomes too evangelical for Ossoff to win there. However, Sullivan wins FL because he picks Ashley Moody as his VP
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #862 on: November 13, 2020, 04:33:36 PM »

Ossoff Elected First Jewish President



Ossoff-386
Dan Sullivan-152

Ossoff is a much better fit for Iowa than for Ohio or Missouri.

Also, Stephen Webber? lol, no chance. No chance of him becoming governor, or of being chosen as a running mate, or of swinging the state.

Stephen Webber flips MO and he has appeal in Ohio. Iowa becomes too evangelical for Ossoff to win there. However, Sullivan wins FL because he picks Ashley Moody as his VP

No place in this country is ever going to become more evangelical between now and this hypothetical map.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #863 on: November 13, 2020, 05:20:16 PM »

Mike Doyle Ekes A Win Against Dan Sullivan


270-268
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #864 on: November 13, 2020, 08:53:26 PM »

                                    2002 New Jersey Senate Election

Third time the charm for Republican Bob Franks as he defeats scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent Bob Torricelli 50% to 44`%. Franks, retired from the U.S. House in 2000 to run for Senate originally, but lost to multimillionaire Jon Corzine. Months later, he was recruited to replace scandal-plagued Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco, who was going to run for governor in his own right after Christie Whitman, the now EPA chief, resigned as governor earlier than her 2002 expiration.

Franks and Torricelli sparred over taxes, crime, the Afghanistan War and corruption. Torricelli called Franks too conservative for the state and unempathetic to Black concerns about police brutality and violence, Franks said Torricelli failed to deliver to Black New Jerseyans in D.C. and visited Democratic strongholds like Newark, Irvington and Camden.

Franks will be in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, he is up for reelection in 2008
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BigVic
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« Reply #865 on: November 13, 2020, 09:22:10 PM »


Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware) / Senator Elizabeth Warren (Democratic, Massachusetts) 279 electoral votes, 50% popular votes
Mr. Donald John Trump (Republican, New York) / Governor Michael Richard Pence (Republican, Indiana) 259 electoral votes, 46% popular votes

Without Harris, this would've been the map. Harris helped Biden to flip the Sun Belt
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Trump v. Wong Kim Ark
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #866 on: November 14, 2020, 10:53:05 PM »

1852:

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 172  EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 124 EV




1856

Same as 1852.

1860

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 179 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 124 EV




1864

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 162 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 72 EV




1868

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 171 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 123 EV




1872

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 205 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 147 EV




Tbh, this is turning out to be a lot less interesting than I had expected. I do wish that Atlas’s election calculator went back before 1840.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #867 on: November 15, 2020, 10:07:23 PM »


Senator Barack Hussein Obama (Democratic, Illinois) / Senator Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware) 442 electoral votes, 64.1% popular votes
President George Walker Bush (Republican, Texas) / Vice President Richard Bruce Cheney (Republican, Wyoming) 96 electoral votes, 30.4% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 electoral votes, 5.5% popular votes
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #868 on: November 15, 2020, 10:11:10 PM »

Tbh, this is turning out to be a lot less interesting than I had expected. I do wish that Atlas’s election calculator went back before 1840.
270toWin has an ev calculator for the elections from 1788-1836, but I expect Biden's majority will only grow the further back you go, given he won 11 of the original 13 states.
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bagelman
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« Reply #869 on: November 19, 2020, 11:50:34 AM »
« Edited: November 26, 2020, 11:35:26 AM by bagelman »



2024 like 1912, or what will happen if Joe Biden is another Bill Clinton style Liberal Republican.
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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #870 on: November 19, 2020, 01:40:31 PM »

2020: Obama comes back:


Fmr. Pres. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) 350EV
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY)/V.P. Mike Pence (R-IN) 188EV
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #871 on: November 20, 2020, 01:23:48 PM »

Obama wouldn't have picked Baldwin, it would have been Whitmer, Baldwin was more of a Bernie Veep
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Non-consecutive Two Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #872 on: November 20, 2020, 02:03:31 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=52bq

2024 like 1912, or what will happen if Joe Biden is another Bill Clinton style Liberal Republican.

Lol no. GOP would probably be winning more, Progressives a lot less and Biden a lot more
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #873 on: November 22, 2020, 06:41:14 PM »


Senator Barack Hussein Obama (Democratic, Illinois) / Senator Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware) 442 electoral votes, 64.1% popular votes
President George Walker Bush (Republican, Texas) / Vice President Richard Bruce Cheney (Republican, Wyoming) 96 electoral votes, 30.4% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 electoral votes, 5.5% popular votes

You think Obama would win WV, AR?
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #874 on: November 22, 2020, 07:53:30 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2020, 12:44:35 PM by bagelman »

2016: The Political Revolution



Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT) / Congresswoman Donna Edwards (D-MD) 303

Senator Joe Machin (R-WV) / Former Governor Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) 235

With a strong candidate that had the party in lockstep, it was never really in doubt that Sanders came out on top. Manchin exceeded pundit expectations, taking North Carolina thanks to overpreforming in Appalachia, easily winning FL and coming very close in OH. But it wasn't enough.

2020: The Political Revolution continued



President Bernard Sanders (D-VT) / Vice President Donna Edwards (D-MD) 328

Governor Andrew Cuomo (R-NY) / Senator Ben McAdams (R-UT) 210

The 2020 election was a hard fought affair. Republican Governor Andrew Cuomo was one of the best challengers to Sanders the GOP hoped for. His VP selection wasn't an easy choice, with Pete Buttigieg seen as a top choice, but Cuomo chose to shore up his conservative base instead. McAdams became the second Mormon to be placed on a Presidential Ticket.

Republicans were confident about this election, especially in light of the COVID pandemic. Republicans claimed more technocratic and less "anti-business" policies would help stop the pandemic. Cuomo touted a national mask mandate. Former President Barack Obama was officially neutral but essentially opposed his own party in this election.

In the end however it was a big disappointment for the GOP. All that money to lose electoral votes, gaining only Ohio due to the popularity of their Republican governor and his endorsement of Cuomo. Many here on Atlas believe that if the GOP had attacked Sanders from the other direction regarding masks and lockdowns, they might have had a better chance. A scary thought.

2024: Battle of the Buckeyes



Senator Tim Ryan (R-OH) / Senator Kyrsten Sinema (R-AZ) Won

Congresswoman Nina Turner (D-OH) / Congresswoman Illhan Omar (D-MN) Lost

A pair of congresswomen lose to a pair of Senators. Donna Edwards had been defeated in the primaries by Turner, who ran a more culturally left wing campaign in their bid to continue the political revolution. Instead the Republicans came back. Ryan was skilled in winning the votes of traditional Democrats, while the actual Democratic ticket talked more about their own representation of women of color (not a bad thing) rather than trying to win votes (more important).

Pete Buttigieg (R-IN), the runner up in the GOP primaries, remains a rising star in the party and has been guaranteed a prominent spot in the Ryan administration. On the other side, New York Senator Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains the leader of the Democrats in Congress and is already the frontrunner for the 2028 nomination. Whether she enters the race in 4 years remains to be seen.
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