Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[VPH]

2020 Jefferson Election

Social Democrats - 34%
Conservative Party - 29%
Liberty Alliance - 27%
Pacific Greens - 15%
Center Party - 4%
Raza Unida Party- 1%

Social Democrats: Led by Caddy McKeown (SD-Coos Bay), this center-left party has historic roots among organized labor. In recent years, it has become more based in urban areas but still carries significant strength in timber communities and mining areas. It retains more traditional views on firearm ownership and other cultural issues like immigration while supporting subsidized tuition, infrastructure development, and fairer taxes. A newer faction in the party led by Audrey Denney (SD-Chico) seeks to push the group leftward to undercut the Greens.
Conservative Party: Bev Clarno (CP-Klamath Falls) moved to Jefferson 40 years ago from Oregon and ascended to the leadership through a long career. A pragmatist at heart, she and her party defend center-right positions and work well with other parties. They're pro-timber but respect the need for some environmental conservation too. The party is supportive of free trade with the US and other countries and seeks to lower taxes.
Liberty Alliance: Dallas Heard (LA-Roseburg) is the young leader of the Liberty Alliance, taking the place of Art Robinson (LA-Cave Junction). Cultivating links with border militia groups, he has attracted controversy. Heard's party stands unequivocally for gun rights, against immigration, against environmental regulation, against trade with the US, and against large government. The Liberty Alliance does best in rural areas.
Pacific Greens: The true left-wing party in Jefferson, the Greens have grown over the last 25 years from a loose coalition of environmentalists to a true force on the coast and in some ski towns. Dan Hamburg (G-Ukiah) leads the party and has committed to working with the Social Democrats where possible. However, they diverge in being the most prominent voices for environmental regulation, supporting strict gun control, MMT-based economics, and opening Jefferson up to large refugee flows.
Center Party: Small, new outfit led by a breakaway, Paul Dhanuka (CEN-Reading) from the Conservative Party who wants to see more cooperation with the tech sector to modernize Jefferson. Mainly neoliberal agenda and do best in the suburbs. Control a few mayoral spots in resort areas and one Reading Assembly Seat.
Raza Unida Party: Represents the small Latino minority in Jefferson. No elected officials beyond a few school board members in the former California portion.

[Calthrina950]

Decided to extrapolate the 1992=1968 thing I did to the modern day. Had to flip the closest Bush '92 win (Tennessee) to put Clinton in the Nixon spot

1992 (1968)

Gov. Bill Clinton, 274 votes (43.42%)
President George H. W. Bush, 264 votes (42.72%)
Ross Perot (13.53%)

1996 (1972)

President Bill Clinton, 515 votes (60.67%)
Senator Bob Dole, 23 votes (37.52%)

2000 (1976)

Governor George W. Bush, 311 votes (50.08%)
President Al Gore, 227 votes (48.02%)

2004 (1980)

Senator John Kerry, 365 votes (50.75%)
President George W. Bush, 173 votes (41.01%)
Senator John McCain (6.61%)

2008 (1984)

President John Kerry, 417 votes (58.77%)
Former Vice President Elizabeth Dole, 121 votes (40.56%)

2012 (1988)

Vice President John Edwards, 347 votes (53.37%)
Governor Mitt Romney, 191 votes (45.65%)

2016 (1992)

Senator Marco Rubio, 351 votes (43.01%)
President John Edwards, 187 votes (37.45%)
Donald Trump (18.91%)

Excellent series of maps. It's very interesting how things would have played out.

[Calthrina950]

Here's another series of maps for the Ferguson Scenario. These maps depicts how whites voted by state in the 2008 (Romney landslide), 2012 (decisive Ferguson win), and 2016 (Ferguson landslide) elections.

First, here's 2008:

Romney wins 66% of the white vote in his 2008 landslide, in which he defeats Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio by 12.5% nationwide (55.9-43.4%). He carries white voters in 49 of the 50 states, losing them only in Rhode Island (which is Kucinich's best state) and in the District of Columbia (where he manages to obtain 26% of the white vote). Kucinich's margins of victory in Hawaii, Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota are provided by non-white voters; Asians and Pacific Islanders in Hawaii, blacks in the remainder. Romney annihilates Kucinich among white voters in the Deep South (breaking 90% in Georgia!) and also demolishes him in the Upper South and the Mormon Corridor; Kucinich does best among white voters in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes States, and the Northeast.

Here's 2012:

Romney still wins the white vote, carrying it 53.6-45.5% against Gov. Henry Ferguson of Texas, while Ferguson beats him nationwide by 10.43% (54.8-44.3%). Romney wins the white vote in 26 states; Ferguson in 24 (and the District of Columbia). He takes a plurality of whites in California, while Ferguson carries a plurality of whites in New Jersey. Once again, Romney does best in the Deep South and the Mormon Corridor, while Ferguson does best in the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast. In two states (Rhode Island and West Virginia), more then 60% of white voters cast a Democratic ballot. Ferguson's margins of victory in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Maryland, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, and South Dakota are provided by nonwhite voters, with Hispanics the dominant element in the American Southwest and California, blacks in the South, and Native Americans in South Dakota.

And here's 2016:

Taking 61.05% of the national popular vote, Henry Ferguson also wins a majority of the white vote in his reelection bid, making him one of only two Democrats (alongside Al Gore in 2004) to do so in this timeline's history since 1964. 52.6% of white voters cast their ballots for Ferguson, joining 94.8% of black voters, 76.8% of Hispanic voters, 76.3% of Asian voters, and 67.8% of other voters in doing so. The President wins the white vote in 35 states and D.C. In 11 other states (Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Louisiana, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Nebraska, Tennessee, and Virginia), his margin of victory is once again provided by nonwhite voters, though Ferguson loses white voters by single digits in Arkansas, Idaho, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada, Nebraska, and Tennessee.

Once again, white voters in the Deep South vote overwhelmingly Republican, with William Pryor garnering over 80% of them in his home state of Alabama, the only state where he did better than Romney. Ferguson manages to get at least 20% of white voters in Georgia (lost by 8.25%), South Carolina (lost by 11.81%), and Mississippi (lost by just 1.00%, the closest state in the election). As in 2008 and 2012, the white voters of the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes States, and Northeast are among the best for Democrats, and Ferguson performs strongly among them in Hawaii, Kentucky, and West Virginia as well (and of course in D.C.).

[Calthrina950]

And here's an additional map for the Ferguson Scenario. This map depicts Presidential Results vs. Senatorial Results in the 2016 election:

Blue states are states where President Ferguson outperformed the Democratic nominee; red states are those in which the Democratic nominee outperformed Ferguson. Out of 34 states having Senate contests in 2016, Ferguson ran ahead of the Democratic nominee in 22 (64.71%); the Democratic nominee ran ahead of him in 12 (35.29%). Ferguson outperforms all of the losing Democratic candidates; in Alaska and Pennsylvania, Republican incumbents Lisa Murkowski and Pat Toomey manage to win reelection despite Ferguson carrying their states with more than 60% of the vote. Republican Tom Campbell picks up an open seat in California, despite Ferguson winning the state with 65% of the vote. And in Kansas, Republican incumbent Jerry Moran wins reelection by 30 points (and with 62% of the vote), while Ferguson carries the state with 54% of the vote.

Both Ferguson and the Democratic nominee lose Alabama and Georgia; Ferguson gets 38% in Alabama (compared to Ron Crumpton's 26%) and 46% in Georgia (compared to Jim Barksdale's 32%). Ferguson's landslide wins in Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio (he wins all but Nevada with over 60% of the vote, and Nevada by 17%) carries Democratic nominees Tammy Duckworth, Jason Kander, Maggie Hassan, Catherine Cortez-Masto, and Zack Space over the finish line, and he also helps Jack Conway in Kentucky (winning that state with more than 60% also), and to a lesser extent, Jeff Jackson in North Carolina (carrying the state by 12% while Jackson beats David Walker by 7%).

As for Democratic nominees outperforming Ferguson, the most dramatic instances can be seen in New York (Chuck Schumer), Oklahoma (Brad Henry), Louisiana (John Kennedy), Florida (Jim Davis), Indiana (Evan Bayh), South Carolina (Jim Hodges), and Idaho (Walt Minnick), all of whom run ahead of Ferguson by at least 9%. Schumer, Henry, and Kennedy all win reelection with more than 70% of the vote, Davis, Bayh, and Minnick with more than 60%; Henry's 75.06% in Oklahoma constitutes a share 19% higher than Ferguson's 55.75%. In Louisiana, Florida, and Idaho, Democrats Kennedy, Davis, and Minnick win the white vote, which at the presidential level in those states goes to Pryor.

South Carolina's Jim Hodges, who obtains 55.05% in his bid for a third term, is the only Democratic Senator to win a state lost by Ferguson (of which there were only four in the Deep South; Alabama and Georgia of course, voted Republican for both President and Senate, and Mississippi, the fourth, did not have a Senate race this year). He wins over substantial chunks of rural and suburban white voters who lean R at the presidential level and voted for Pryor, though still losing the white vote to his Republican opponent Katie Arrington. Overall, Democrats win the Senate popular vote 56.4-43.4%, running behind Ferguson's nationwide total.

[bagelman]

This is actually a scenario I made about 5 years ago, before Trump even won the primaries.

2016



Senator Bernard Sanders / Senator Amy Klobuchar 279 EV

Buinessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Senator John Cornyn (R-TX)^ (appeared as Make America Great Again in Utah) 253 EV

Fmr. Governor John Huntsman Jr. (IR-UT) / Fmr. Governor Bobby Jindal (IR-LA) (appeared as Republican in Utah) 9 EV

The Stop Trump campaign, supported by Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, won the state of Utah. Donald Trump's relentless attacks against them led him to be portrayed as an angry old man, allowing the other angry old man to win the race. Both tickets also had issues with running mates from the party establishment being forced upon them at the party convention. The POD is a scandal tarnishing Hillary Clinton among Democrats in fall 2015, allowing Bernie Sanders to narrowly win. Donald Trump has a much harder time winning and the Republican primaries are decided in Cleveland - Ted Cruz never really supports him.

^{^interchangeable with any other mainstream Republican}

2020



Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) 335 EV

President Bernard Sanders (D-VT) / Vice President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 203 EV

Bernie Sanders was unable to pass much of his agenda through the GOP controlled congress, who viewed him as just as bad as Obama at best. The public disagreements with his own Vice President didn't help either. The Republican party poured massive amounts of money into establishment candidates, but the GOP electorate was convinced that Trump had the '16 election stolen from him by the establishment Republicans who allowed a blatant socialist to win. Trump was able to portray himself as calmer and less belligerent than he was before, improving his reputation among both minorities and GOP establishment voters who supported Huntsman (mostly the latter), and entered office promising to Make America Great Again.

In 2023, Trump made a frightening comment regarding nuclear arms. His other recently odd mannerisms, more so than usual for the eccentric Trump, lead him to being declared incapacitated by his cabinet and diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease. While Trump initially protested this decision he would later forget that he was president at all and passed away the next year. After their miserable results in the 2022 midterms, the GOP was convinced they were doomed. President Rubio didn't believe this, and after some deliberation ran for a full term. He was defeated.

2024



Former Vice President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) / Congresswoman Val Demings (D-FL)^ aprox. 292 EV

President Marco Rubio (R-FL) Fmr. Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) aprox. 246 EV.

In some ways, the 2024 election was a return to the mean. Rubio's hispanic status helped defend Florida and Texas, there are a decent number of Sanders '20/Rubio '24 voters in both states. The closest states in this election were Iowa and Arizona for Klob and Ohio for Rubio.

^{^interchangeable with any other black female Democratic national politician.}

2028



Congressman Ted Betts (R-ID) / Governor Rand Paul (R-KY) aprox 326 EV

President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) / Vice President Val Demings (D-FL)^ aprox 212 EV

The Klobuchar presidency was a time of bloat. Bloated government and bloated corporations. The libertarian wing of the GOP, which had been quietly gaining strength from the new generation, seized the moment and nominated obscure Idaho congressman Ted Betts. Hailing from the northern part of the state, Betts opposed the aggressive curbing of immigration that President Trump, supported the legalization of soft drugs, strongly supported individual right-to-privacy, supported criminal justice reform, and was a good debater. Betts was able to position himself as the champion of small businesses, fighting against "cronies that make the common man foot the bill for them". Promising lower taxes, smaller government, decreased foreign aid, and an end to legislated morality from both the right and left, Betts won a noncontroversial majority in 2028. He even won the President's home state, although it was the closest state nationwide. President Klobuchar became the third incumbent President in a row to be defeated.

2032


President Ted Betts (R-ID) / Vice President Rand Paul (R-KY) won

Governor Juan Hernandez (D-NM) / Senator Kathleen Gates (D-VA)

Juan Hernandez was socially conservative by the standard of the Democratic party. He ran on the issues of needed government action in regards to climate change and tried his best to paint the President as a racist. President Betts touted the strong economy and the role of private enterprise in fighting climate change as part of his victory. Hernandez became the first Democrat to win Mississippi and lose Minnesota in the same election since Adlai Stevenson.

2036


Sandy Bellman (D-CA) / Mike Morsel (D-PA) won

Craig Romney (R-UT) / George P. Bush (R-TX)

President Betts's second term did not go as smoothly as his first. His opposition to government environmental legislation was small comfort to hurricane victims in Florida, he opposed even basic gun control efforts, he was uncompromising and more boisterous, and he often openly opposed Republicans from the "other side" of the party just as much as he did democrats. But his biggest downfall came when members of congress, the media, and the general public began to question his many unnecessary "investigations" of old 9/11 related documents, individuals (deceased and living), and government organizations (active and defunct, including and especially the NSA which he had devoted a serious amount of political capital to abolishing). It was later leaked by an aide that President Betts personally believed that 9/11 was a false flag attack by the George W. Bush administration. President Betts never denied this claim, a claim that would be devastating to his party, his popular support, and even his family.

The Republicans themselves had recovered enough to prevent a true landslide against the first LGBT president. Bellman represented a return to social liberalism for the Democrats following Hernandez. Despite being socially liberal even by Democratic standards, she was supported by many southerners worried about global warming, now very plainly visible to the nation and the world (well, even more so).

The "Traditional" wing of the Republican party won out against the pro-Betts Libertarian wing following the scandalous revelation that the sitting president believed in a 9/11 conspiracy theory. It is an unspoken truth that President Betts did not support Romney, even against Bellman.

[😥]

2004:

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)/Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) 279 EVs
Pres. George W. Bush (R-TX)/VP Dick Cheney (R-WY) 259 EVs

2008:

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Fmr. Sec. Tom Ridge (R-PA) 307 EVs
Pres. John Kerry (D-MA)/VP John Edwards (D-NC) 231 EVs

2012:

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) 298 EVs
Pres. John McCain (R-AZ)/VP Tom Ridge (R-PA) 240 EVs

2016:

Pres. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/VP Evan Bayh (D-IN) 379 EVs
Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY)/Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) 159 EVs

2020:

VP Evan Bayh (D-IN)/Sen. Jason Kander (D-MO) 314 EVs
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Fmr. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV) 224 EVs

[Mike Thick]

California Attorney General Election, 2010
Democratic Primary

State Ass. Pedro Nava: 29.98%
San Francisco DA Kamala Harris: 26.12%
State Ass. Alberto Torrico: 12.21%
Attorney Chris Kelly: 11.50%
State Ass. Ted Lieu: 8.11%
Fmr. LA City Atty. Rocky Delgadillo: 7.70%
Attorney Mike Schmier: 4.39%

[BigVic]

Fmr. Sec of State Hillary Clinton/Sen. Tim Kaine 307 48.3%)
Mr. Donald Trump/Gov Mike Pence 231 (45.8%)

2016 without the Comey letter

[Calthrina950]

Here's a revised map of the 2008 election in the Ferguson Scenario, this time utilizing the Wikipedia template:

By my calculation, Mitt Romney carries 2,574 counties, while Dennis Kucinich wins 570. Romney wins every county in nine states: Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Nevada, and Vermont. He also wins all but two counties in Florida and Kansas. Kucinich wins every county in Rhode Island (and of course the District of Columbia). Kucinich would win nearly one hundred more counties than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and he would lose the popular vote by 12% compared to her 2% win.

He accomplishes this by winning many white rural counties in Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana, among other states, that she lost, but loses many of the suburban and smaller urban counties she carried (i.e. the Collar Counties of Chicago and Philadelphia, Orange County, Fort Bend County, the Suburban Counties of Atlanta, Baltimore County, the Suburban Counties of Denver, San Diego County, Northern Virginia, etc.), thus explaining the difference between the two elections. Romney's best counties are concentrated in the Mormon Corridor, Nebraska, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of the Deep South.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Hillary Rodham Clinton/Tim Kaine - 71,336,625 votes (52.5%) & 394 electors
Donald J. Trump/Mike Pence - 54,712,708 votes (40.2%) & 138 electors
Mitt Romney/Various - 8,392,884 votes (6.2%) & 6 electors

easy romney vote tbh

[Calthrina950]

Here is a map of the 2012 election results by county in the Ferguson Scenario, utilizing the same Wikipedia template:

Henry Ferguson wins 1,665 counties in 2012, while Mitt Romney carries 1,479. Ferguson wins every county in three states: Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Rhode Island (in addition to the District of Columbia). He wins at least one county in every state (Romney wins all counties in Utah bar Carbon County, which he had carried in 2008, and as in 2008 (and in OTL 2012), Utah is his best state). Ferguson wins approximately 100 or so more counties than Bill Clinton in 1992/1996, and their county maps are very similar-with Ferguson winning more counties than Clinton in the Interior West, California, the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Texas, and Kentucky, while Clinton carried more in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama (in most other states, they carried roughly the same number of counties). Ferguson outperforms Clinton's 1996 percentages in every state except for these three and South Carolina.

Ferguson also wins approximately 1,000 more counties than Barack Obama did in OTL 2012, losing two Obama states (Florida and Virginia), but carrying fourteen Romney states (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia). Overall, Ferguson wins 38 states and D.C.; Romney 12, and beats Romney in the popular vote by 10%, making this election on par with those of Eisenhower 1952, Reagan 1980, and Clinton 1996.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

1972 Presidential Election (Alternate)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Pres. Richard Milhous Nixon / V.P. Spiro Theodore Agnew - 43,782,076; 508 EVs
Gov. George Corley Wallace Jr. / Sen. George Stanley McGovern - 34,890,064; 30 EVs

[CookieDamage]

1988

D: M. Dukakis/L. Bentsen - 272 EVs

R: G.H.W. Bush/D. Quayle - 266 EVs

1992

R: A. Specter/P. Buchanan - 278 EVs

D: M. Dukakis/L. Bentsen - 260 EVs

1996

R: A. Specter/P. Buchanan - 327 EVs

D: B. Clinton/J. Brown - 211 EVs

2000

D: B. Graham/B. Miller - 326 EVs

R: P. Buchanan/R. Shelby - 212 EVs

2004

D: B. Graham/B. Miller - 358 EVs

R. G.W. Bush/B. Frist - 180 EVs

2008

R: M. Romney/R. Santorum - 326 EVs

D: B. Obama/H. Clinton - 212 EVs

2012

D: H. Clinton/T. Kaine - 279 EVs

R. M. Romney/R. Santorum - 259 EVs

2016

D: H. Clinton/T. Kaine - 344 EVs

R: T. Cruz/D. Trump - 194 EVs

2020

R: M. Rubio/N. Haley - 337 EVs

D: T. Kaine/C. C. Masto - 201 EVs

[Lord Admirale]

Based off what Razze was doing earlier, except starting with using 1960 in 1992

1992 (1960)

Bill Clinton / Al Gore (Democratic) - 274 electoral votes (49.72%)
George Bush / Dan Quayle (Republican) - 264 electoral votes (49.55%)

1996 (1964)

Bill Clinton / Al Gore (Democratic) - 515 electoral votes (61.1%)
Bob Dole / Jack Kemp (Republican) - 23 electoral votes (38.5%)

2000 (1968)

George W. Bush / Tom Ridge (Republican) - 311 electoral votes (43.4%)
Al Gore / Tom Daschle (Democratic) - 227 electoral votes (42.7%)
Pat Buchanan / Alan Keyes (Reform) - 0 electoral votes (13.5%)

2004 (1972)

George W. Bush / Tom Ridge (Republican) - 523 electoral votes (60.7%)
Dennis Kucinich / Al Sharpton (Democratic) - 15 electoral votes (37.5%)

2008 (1976)

Mark Warner / Kathleen Sebelius (Democratic) - 291 electoral votes (50.1%)[/color]
Roy Blunt / Lindsey Graham (Republican) - 247 electoral votes (48.0%)

2012 (1980)

Mitt Romney / David Petraeus (Republican) - 360 electoral votes (50.7%)
Mark Warner / Kathleen Sebelius (Democratic) - 178 electoral votes (41.0%)
Charlie Crist / Ronnie Musgrove (Independent) - 0 electoral votes (6.6%)

2016 (1984)

Mitt Romney / David Petraeus (Republican) - 423 electoral votes (58.8%)
Kathleen Sebelius / Sherrod Brown (Democratic) - 115 electoral votes (40.6%)

[President Johnson]

2020 presidential election: Nixon hoovers Trump

✓ Former Governor Jeremiah Wilson Nixon (D-MO)/Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 435 EV. (54.74%)
President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 103 EV. (43.89%)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Here's a revised map of the 2008 election in the Ferguson Scenario, this time utilizing the Wikipedia template:

By my calculation, Mitt Romney carries 2,574 counties, while Dennis Kucinich wins 570. Romney wins every county in nine states: Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Nevada, and Vermont. He also wins all but two counties in Florida and Kansas. Kucinich wins every county in Rhode Island (and of course the District of Columbia). Kucinich would win nearly one hundred more counties than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and he would lose the popular vote by 12% compared to her 2% win.

He accomplishes this by winning many white rural counties in Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana, among other states, that she lost, but loses many of the suburban and smaller urban counties she carried (i.e. the Collar Counties of Chicago and Philadelphia, Orange County, Fort Bend County, the Suburban Counties of Atlanta, Baltimore County, the Suburban Counties of Denver, San Diego County, Northern Virginia, etc.), thus explaining the difference between the two elections. Romney's best counties are concentrated in the Mormon Corridor, Nebraska, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of the Deep South.

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a revised map of the 2008 election in the Ferguson Scenario, this time utilizing the Wikipedia template:

By my calculation, Mitt Romney carries 2,574 counties, while Dennis Kucinich wins 570. Romney wins every county in nine states: Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Nevada, and Vermont. He also wins all but two counties in Florida and Kansas. Kucinich wins every county in Rhode Island (and of course the District of Columbia). Kucinich would win nearly one hundred more counties than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and he would lose the popular vote by 12% compared to her 2% win.

He accomplishes this by winning many white rural counties in Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana, among other states, that she lost, but loses many of the suburban and smaller urban counties she carried (i.e. the Collar Counties of Chicago and Philadelphia, Orange County, Fort Bend County, the Suburban Counties of Atlanta, Baltimore County, the Suburban Counties of Denver, San Diego County, Northern Virginia, etc.), thus explaining the difference between the two elections. Romney's best counties are concentrated in the Mormon Corridor, Nebraska, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of the Deep South.

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

Seattle, the Bay Area, Hawaii, Vermont seem relatively poor for Kucinich. Also Massachusetts, although it is not so surprising as Romney is from there.

[Calthrina950]

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

Seattle, the Bay Area, Hawaii, Vermont seem relatively poor for Kucinich. Also Massachusetts, although it is not so surprising as Romney is from there.

I see. Any thoughts about the corresponding 2012 map, posted below it, and the swings that take place? Or the white vote and Senatorial maps that I've posted?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

Seattle, the Bay Area, Hawaii, Vermont seem relatively poor for Kucinich. Also Massachusetts, although it is not so surprising as Romney is from there.

I see. Any thoughts about the corresponding 2012 map, posted below it, and the swings that take place? Or the white vote and Senatorial maps that I've posted?

My thoughts on the 2012 map are:

Why is the White vote in Louisiana so less Republican than in the rest of the Deep South?
Whereas it is Florida outside of the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach area which seems to be as Republican as the Deep South.
Why did Ferguson beat Romney in real-life blood-red Collin, Denton, Montgomery counties in Texas but not in the Inland Empire?
What is Romney's best county? I would assume Franklin County, Idaho?

Do you have a swing map?

[Calthrina950]

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

Seattle, the Bay Area, Hawaii, Vermont seem relatively poor for Kucinich. Also Massachusetts, although it is not so surprising as Romney is from there.

I see. Any thoughts about the corresponding 2012 map, posted below it, and the swings that take place? Or the white vote and Senatorial maps that I've posted?

My thoughts on the 2012 map are:

Why is the White vote in Louisiana so less Republican than in the rest of the Deep South?
Whereas it is Florida outside of the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach area which seems to be as Republican as the Deep South.
Why did Ferguson beat Romney in real-life blood-red Collin, Denton, Montgomery counties in Texas but not in the Inland Empire?
What is Romney's best county? I would assume Franklin County, Idaho?

Do you have a swing map?

1) The Democrats would have residual strength among Catholic Cajuns in South Louisiana, who in RL trended heavily Republican from 2000 onwards. Louisiana is also the only Deep Southern State (and this is the definition that includes Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) won by Ferguson in 2012 and 2016. Hence, whites would be logically less Republican than in the neighboring states. Florida would be a Republican-leaning state in this scenario (Lean/Likely Republican in anything less then a landslide year for the Democrats), as the Republicans would have a powerful coalition of retirees, Hispanics, working-class and rural whites, and conservative-leaning Asians/Others. Whites in Florida would be less Republican than those in the Deep South, but still more Republican than in OTL.

2) Ferguson would have a considerable native-son boost in Texas, and Denton, Collin, and Montgomery Counties would react strongly to his candidacy. The Inland Empire would be closely divided as it is in OTL, but with Romney eking out plurality victories (Ferguson would receive "only" 58.39% in California, and Northern California's ancestral Democratic tendencies would still be very much a factor here).

3) You're correct. I have not calculated precise county results for either 2008 or 2012, but your guess would be a reasonable one. I have, as you know, calculated the precise results for the 2016 election.

4) Yes, I have a swing map of the states, but not of the counties. Here's that map:

Anything you notice about the swings? I have some county flip maps as well which I'll post later.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

4) Yes, I have a swing map of the states, but not of the counties. Here's that map:

Anything you notice about the swings? I have some county flip maps as well which I'll post later.

Some of the strongest swings are in unexpected places (Oregon, Kentucky. I am not really surprised by North Dakota as it has a tendency of trending against incumbents).
Rhode Island is the odd man out but that's obvious because in 2008 Romney destroyed Kucinich in all New England bar Rhodes so Ferguson had less to gain.
What surprises me the most is the comparatively little swing in Minnesota, especially given that Ferguson flipped an insane number of counties.

[Calthrina950]

4) Yes, I have a swing map of the states, but not of the counties. Here's that map:

Anything you notice about the swings? I have some county flip maps as well which I'll post later.

Some of the strongest swings are in unexpected places (Oregon, Kentucky. I am not really surprised by North Dakota as it has a tendency of trending against incumbents).
Rhode Island is the odd man out but that's obvious because in 2008 Romney destroyed Kucinich in all New England bar Rhodes so Ferguson had less to gain.
What surprises me the most is the comparatively little swing in Minnesota, especially given that Ferguson flipped an insane number of counties.

I was surprised by it as well, when I calculated these figures. And here's the next swing map, from the 2012 to the 2016 elections:

Anything noticeable about this map?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I was surprised by it as well, when I calculated these figures. And here's the next swing map, from the 2012 to the 2016 elections:

Anything noticeable about this map?

California and New Mexico are interesting.
Maybe Democrats were already maxed out, or maybe Pryor has a secret appeal to Latinos.
Massachusetts and Rhode Island are of course hellholes for Pryor.
The fact that Pryor bleeds more support than in most other places in the Ancestrally Republican Belt like Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas is interesting. (Idaho and Utah have obviously to do with Romney's faith)

[Calthrina950]

I was surprised by it as well, when I calculated these figures. And here's the next swing map, from the 2012 to the 2016 elections:

Anything noticeable about this map?

California and New Mexico are interesting.
Maybe Democrats were already maxed out, or maybe Pryor has a secret appeal to Latinos.
Massachusetts and Rhode Island are of course hellholes for Pryor.
The fact that Pryor bleeds more support than in most other places in the Ancestrally Republican Belt like Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas is interesting. (Idaho and Utah have obviously to do with Romney's faith)

Pryor doesn't have a secret appeal to Hispanics-it's just that his decline is much more marginal in those states than elsewhere. Romney got 37.39% in California and 42.84% in New Mexico in 2012-Pryor receives 35.21% and 40.22%. Massachusetts swings heavily away from Pryor because Romney is no longer on the ballot-Romney of course, had performed better than his national average there in 2008, and in 2012, still managed a respectable 39.55% due to having been the state's Governor. You are correct about Idaho and Utah, where Ferguson gains 11% and 17% compared to 2012, and he flips those other three states, which Romney held in 2012.

In fact, the results tables for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User:The_Empire_of_History/sandbox. You have the one for 2016 which I provided you already, earlier in this thread, but I don't think you've seen the ones for the other elections. That should make things clearer.