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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #625 on: June 29, 2020, 02:33:58 PM »



I'm bored (Alaska is the continuation of the purple seen in the North East, not ordinary blue)
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #626 on: June 29, 2020, 11:05:09 PM »


Those margins, yikes. That's an urban/rural white/nonwhite polarization nightmare. I really hope the trends never get that extreme.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #627 on: June 29, 2020, 11:15:30 PM »

The 2012 election results by county in the Ferguson Scenario. What is the state map?


I came up with this state map:





Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
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« Reply #628 on: June 30, 2020, 05:20:01 AM »


Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.


I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #629 on: June 30, 2020, 07:27:18 AM »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 09:47:33 AM by Calthrina950 »


Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.


I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.

It is an alternate history timeline, and mainly an electoral scenario which I devised, as I haven't gone into full detail about it. Ferguson is obviously a fictional character, a former Senator/Governor of Texas who is a descendant of some RL Texas Governors in the last century. He beats an unpopular incumbent Romney in 2012 and wins reelection by a landslide four years later against Senator William Pryor, Jr. of Alabama (who is in RL a federal judge, but here is a Republican politician). In fact, I'll go ahead and post the county map for that election. I'm curious as to what state map you think would be the outcome here:


Also, I forgot to mention that Georgia is a 50% Republican state, not >60% Republican. The actual state map for the first election is this:

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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #630 on: June 30, 2020, 07:41:55 AM »

Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.


I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.

It is an alternate history timeline, and mainly an electoral scenario which I devised, as I haven't gone into full detail about it. Ferguson is obviously a fictional character, a former Senator/Governor of Texas who is a descendant of some RL Texas Governors in the last century. He beats an unpopular incumbent Romney in 2012 and wins reelection by a landslide four years later against Senator William Pryor, Jr. of Alabama (who is in RL a federal judge, but here is a Republican politician). In fact, I'll go ahead and post the county map for that election. I'm curious as to what state map you think would be the outcome here:


Also, I forgot to mention that Georgia is a 50% Republican state, not >60% Republican. The actual state map for the first election is this:


Wow Ferguson breaks 90% in Elliott County?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #631 on: June 30, 2020, 08:27:33 AM »

Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.


I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.

It is an alternate history timeline, and mainly an electoral scenario which I devised, as I haven't gone into full detail about it. Ferguson is obviously a fictional character, a former Senator/Governor of Texas who is a descendant of some RL Texas Governors in the last century. He beats an unpopular incumbent Romney in 2012 and wins reelection by a landslide four years later against Senator William Pryor, Jr. of Alabama (who is in RL a federal judge, but here is a Republican politician). In fact, I'll go ahead and post the county map for that election. I'm curious as to what state map you think would be the outcome here:


Also, I forgot to mention that Georgia is a 50% Republican state, not >60% Republican. The actual state map for the first election is this:


Wow Ferguson breaks 90% in Elliott County?

Yes. He receives 94.13% there. Elliott County is Ferguson's best county in the mainland United States, and his second best county-equivalent overall after Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska (where he receives 97% of the vote). What do you think would be the state map here, though? I don't think you saw that question.
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #632 on: June 30, 2020, 09:04:48 AM »

Wow Ferguson breaks 90% in Elliott County?

Yes. He receives 94.13% there. Elliott County is Ferguson's best county in the mainland United States, and his second best county-equivalent overall after Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska (where he receives 97% of the vote). What do you think would be the state map here, though? I don't think you saw that question.

Yes, I saw that question but I'll answer it later because right now I'm using my cellular phone and doing stuff with maps from it is complicated
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #633 on: June 30, 2020, 09:06:38 AM »

Wow Ferguson breaks 90% in Elliott County?

Yes. He receives 94.13% there. Elliott County is Ferguson's best county in the mainland United States, and his second best county-equivalent overall after Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska (where he receives 97% of the vote). What do you think would be the state map here, though? I don't think you saw that question.

Yes, I saw that question but I'll answer it later because right now I'm using my cellular phone and doing stuff with maps from it is complicated


That's fine.
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NHI
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« Reply #634 on: July 01, 2020, 02:35:03 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2020, 04:19:32 PM by NHI »

From an old unfinished Timeline:

Romney/Ayotte: 271 (48.2%)
Obama/Biden: 267 (49.3%)


Romney/Ayotte: 270 (48.6%)
Clinton/Vislack: 268 (48.5%)

Warren/Brown: 303 (50.9%)
Ayotte/Rubio: 235 (48.0%)
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #635 on: July 01, 2020, 03:28:50 PM »

Wow Ferguson breaks 90% in Elliott County?

Yes. He receives 94.13% there. Elliott County is Ferguson's best county in the mainland United States, and his second best county-equivalent overall after Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska (where he receives 97% of the vote). What do you think would be the state map here, though? I don't think you saw that question.

Yes, I saw that question but I'll answer it later because right now I'm using my cellular phone and doing stuff with maps from it is complicated


Are you able to take a look at the map now?
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #636 on: July 01, 2020, 03:54:32 PM »

Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.


I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.

It is an alternate history timeline, and mainly an electoral scenario which I devised, as I haven't gone into full detail about it. Ferguson is obviously a fictional character, a former Senator/Governor of Texas who is a descendant of some RL Texas Governors in the last century. He beats an unpopular incumbent Romney in 2012 and wins reelection by a landslide four years later against Senator William Pryor, Jr. of Alabama (who is in RL a federal judge, but here is a Republican politician). In fact, I'll go ahead and post the county map for that election. I'm curious as to what state map you think would be the outcome here:




This is what I came up with:



We can call it the modern version of the Johnson landslide?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #637 on: July 01, 2020, 06:56:49 PM »

Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.


I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.

It is an alternate history timeline, and mainly an electoral scenario which I devised, as I haven't gone into full detail about it. Ferguson is obviously a fictional character, a former Senator/Governor of Texas who is a descendant of some RL Texas Governors in the last century. He beats an unpopular incumbent Romney in 2012 and wins reelection by a landslide four years later against Senator William Pryor, Jr. of Alabama (who is in RL a federal judge, but here is a Republican politician). In fact, I'll go ahead and post the county map for that election. I'm curious as to what state map you think would be the outcome here:




This is what I came up with:



We can call it the modern version of the Johnson landslide?


Once again, very close. Iowa is >60% Democratic and Idaho is majority Democratic-though it is the closest state won by Ferguson. Otherwise, you're correct. This is the actual map:


This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
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« Reply #638 on: July 02, 2020, 05:41:46 AM »


This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).


Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #639 on: July 02, 2020, 10:05:29 AM »


This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).


Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

Why so? Was it specific county results that you struggled over?
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #640 on: July 02, 2020, 10:55:01 AM »

This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).


Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

Why so? Was it specific county results that you struggled over?

I was struggling in deciding if there enough urban counties Ferguson 60% to make the state 60%, or in other cases enough urban counties Ferguson 70% to make the state 70%
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #641 on: July 02, 2020, 01:48:08 PM »

This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).


Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

Why so? Was it specific county results that you struggled over?

I was struggling in deciding if there enough urban counties Ferguson 60% to make the state 60%, or in other cases enough urban counties Ferguson 70% to make the state 70%

I see. I know you had the same problem with Michigan when deciding on the 2012 map.
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #642 on: July 02, 2020, 02:42:58 PM »

This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).


Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

Why so? Was it specific county results that you struggled over?

I was struggling in deciding if there enough urban counties Ferguson 60% to make the state 60%, or in other cases enough urban counties Ferguson 70% to make the state 70%

I see. I know you had the same problem with Michigan when deciding on the 2012 map.


Do you have a thread with your alternate timeline? Where can I find it?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #643 on: July 02, 2020, 03:01:13 PM »

This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).


Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

Why so? Was it specific county results that you struggled over?

I was struggling in deciding if there enough urban counties Ferguson 60% to make the state 60%, or in other cases enough urban counties Ferguson 70% to make the state 70%

I see. I know you had the same problem with Michigan when deciding on the 2012 map.


Do you have a thread with your alternate timeline? Where can I find it?

I don't have a thread, but I do have an article over on Fiction Wiki: https://fiction.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016_(Ferguson_Scenario). If you go down to the Results by State section, you can find the individual results for each state. If you click on a state, it will take you to that state's page. I've calculated the results by county for every state.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #644 on: July 02, 2020, 05:00:02 PM »

This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).


Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

Why so? Was it specific county results that you struggled over?

I was struggling in deciding if there enough urban counties Ferguson 60% to make the state 60%, or in other cases enough urban counties Ferguson 70% to make the state 70%

I see. I know you had the same problem with Michigan when deciding on the 2012 map.


Do you have a thread with your alternate timeline? Where can I find it?

I don't have a thread, but I do have an article over on Fiction Wiki: https://fiction.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016_(Ferguson_Scenario). If you go down to the Results by State section, you can find the individual results for each state. If you click on a state, it will take you to that state's page. I've calculated the results by county for every state.

Wow! Thanks

You are welcome. I'd appreciate any comments that you have.
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
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« Reply #645 on: July 03, 2020, 08:18:40 AM »

2016 Presidential Election from an Alternate Universe
At the end of President Colin Powell's term, Vice President John Sununu decides not to be a candidate, knowing that after eight years with a moderate White House, the conservatives in the party think it's their turn. The economy is good, but not great. Tammy Baldwin accuses people in both parties of sexism and not being able to move on from memories of the Kassebaum affair.

Secretary Chuck Hagel / Senator Marco Rubio (R) 47.31% - 295 EV
Senator Tammy Baldwin / Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) 49.71% - 243 EV

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« Reply #646 on: July 03, 2020, 02:40:16 PM »

President Infinity Game: 2016 Expanded parties



Fmr. Sec. Hillary Clinton (DEM-NY)/Sen. Tim Kaine (DEM-VA): 60,437,339 41.8% 303 EV
Mr. Donald Trump (REP-NY)/Gov. Mike Pence (REP-IN): 58,059,025 40.2% 235 EV
Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson (LIB-NM)/Fmr. Gov. Bill Weld (LIB-MA): 12,191,029 8.4%
Fmr. Town Meeting Member Jill Stein (GRN-MA)/Mr. Ajamu Baraka (GRN-GA): 5,434,314 3.8%
Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg (IND-NY)/Fmr. Sec. Chuck Hagel (IND-NE): 5,160,468, 3.6%
Ms. Gloria La Riva (PSL-CA)/Mr. Eugene Puryear (PSL-DC): 1,807,924 1.3%
Mr. Evan McMullin (IND-UT)/Mrs. Mindy Finn (IND-CA): 1,044,455 0.7%
Mr. Darrel Castle (CON-TN)/Mr. Scott Bradley (CON-UT): 312,219 0.2%


Best state for minor parties:
Libertarian: Tie between NM and MT (15.8%)
Green: MT (5.8%)
Bloomberg: UT (6.4%)
Socialism and Liberation: IA (2.9%)
McMullin: UT (23.8%)
Castle: UT (4.9%)

5 Closest states:
IA 39.6-39.1-8.3-3.6-2.9-2.6-2.5-1.4

NV 42.6-42.1-10.3-5.0

FL 41.9-41.1-8.3-4.4-4.2-0.2

MI 41.3-40.5-8.0-4.4-3.8-2.0

UT 24.8-23.8-23.2-12.1-6.4-4.9-3.4-1.4
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« Reply #647 on: July 06, 2020, 10:25:59 PM »

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« Reply #648 on: July 09, 2020, 09:25:15 PM »

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West_Midlander
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« Reply #649 on: July 10, 2020, 03:51:07 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 03:54:16 PM by West_Midlander »

Alternate UK Election 2019: Brexit Party and Lib Dems break out

Seat map (left), Gains (right)

Conservative - 28.79% of the vote - 238 seats in the House of Commons
Liberal Democrats - 22.95% - 65 seats
Labour - 21.78% - 160 seats
Brexit Party - 12.24% - 104 seats
Green - 5.24% - 1 seat
SNP - 4.54% - 55 seats
Plaid Cymru - 1.07% - 6 seats
Sinn Féin - 0.59% - 6 seats
DUP - 0.56% - 6 seats
Alliance - 0.52% - 2 seats
UUP - 0.40% - 2 seats
SDLP - 0.39% - 2 seats
Others - 0.94% (combined) - 3 seats (combined)

I think a Conservative-Brexit coalition is likely if these were the results.

Maps and data from principalfish.co.uk
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