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March 29, 2024, 04:01:53 AM
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 3.0  (Read 166841 times)
bagelman
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« Reply #1250 on: July 14, 2021, 11:49:30 PM »


Votes for the respective candidates in our world's 2004.
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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #1251 on: July 16, 2021, 01:35:44 PM »

2008: Gore/Obama vs. McCain/Lieberman


2012: Gore/Obama vs. Santorum/Gingrich


2016: Obama/Schweitzer vs. Rubio/Romney


2020: Obama/Schweitzer vs. Martinez/Walker


2024: Martinez/Walker vs. O'Rourke/Booker
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1252 on: July 17, 2021, 06:53:34 PM »

I caught a mistake with my prior version of the congressional districts map, so here it is again:


Ferguson wins the white vote in ~251 congressional districts (57.70%), while Pryor wins it in 184 (42.30%). This closely correlates with the 52.6-47.2% spread of the white vote between Ferguson and Pryor. Pryor wins the white vote in 119 congressional districts carried by Ferguson. The most Republican white voters are those of the four Deep Southern States won by Pryor, Louisiana, Florida, and Central/Southern California. The most Democratic white voters are in New England (especially Massachusetts and Rhode Island), parts of Appalachia and the Upper Midwest, and the very liberal San Francisco Bay Area.
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #1253 on: July 17, 2021, 08:43:31 PM »

How about the nonwhite vote?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1254 on: July 17, 2021, 11:18:04 PM »


I know how the nonwhite vote overall and by state goes, but I haven't calculated it, or attempted to calculate it, by county or congressional district. The maps I posted above are rough estimates.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1255 on: July 19, 2021, 09:58:52 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2021, 10:05:35 PM by Calthrina950 »

Here's another map which I've created. This map compares the 2016 election in the Ferguson Scenario with the OTL 1992 election, which I think my scenario most closely resembles:


As I've noted here, Ferguson wins 2,326 counties (74.01%) while Pryor carries 817 (25.99%). In the OTL 1992 election, George H.W. Bush carried 1,598 counties (50.84%), Bill Clinton carried 1,528 counties (48.61%), and Ross Perot carried 15 counties (0.47%), while two counties (0.06%) split evenly between two candidates. There have been some changes (and hence some discrepancies with the map). Broomfield, Colorado was not yet its own county in 1992, and the Valdez-Cordova Census Area has since been split into two.

For the purposes of this map, Broomfield is counted as a Clinton county and Valdez-Cordova's two constituent areas (Chugach and Cooper River) are counted as Bush counties. Ferguson wins 1,397 of Clinton's counties (91.43%), while Pryor carries 131 (8.57%). Most of the Pryor-Clinton counties are in the Border State of Missouri and the old Confederate South, scattered across Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Only three (Warrick County, Indiana, Cherokee County, Kansas, and Juneau County, Wisconsin) are located in antebellum free states or postbellum states. Given that Pryor runs stronger in most of the rural South than Bush did-especially in the Deep South, this isn't surprising.

Ferguson wins 913 of Bush's counties-a majority (57.13%)-while Pryor carries 685 (42.87%). Notably enough, Ferguson wins every Bush county in seven states-Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Notably enough, all 15 Ross Perot counties in Alaska, California, Colorado, Kansas, Maine, Nevada, and Texas vote for Ferguson. As for the two counties where two candidates tied in OTL 1992 (Ware County, Georgia and Morris County, Kansas), the ties being between Bush-Clinton and Bush-Perot, they split, with Ware County voting for Pryor and Morris County for Ferguson.

As for states, Ferguson wins every Clinton state except for Georgia, along with every Bush state except for Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina (and NE-03, which goes to Pryor). The Pryor percentages across most states strongly correlate with those Bush received, and Ferguson receives a higher percentage than Clinton in every state (and D.C.) except for Pryor's home state of Alabama. Pryor's percentage of the popular vote (38.78%) is only marginally higher than Bush's (37.45%), with Ferguson's percentage (61.05%) similar to the combined Clinton/Perot percentage (61.92%).

In both scenarios, Mississippi is the closest Republican win (Bush +0.19% over Clinton/Perot, Pryor +1.00% over Ferguson). New York, Illinois, West Virginia, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont appear on the top ten lists for both Ferguson and Clinton, while Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama, Nebraska, Virginia, Utah, and Georgia appear on the top ten lists for both Pryor and Bush. Hence, the Ferguson coalition is similar in most respects to the Clinton coalition-greater racial polarization in the Deep South aside.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #1256 on: July 23, 2021, 02:19:50 AM »

2016

Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (Democratic, New York) / Senator Timothy Michael Kaine (Democratic, Virginia) 363 electoral votes, 52.8% popular votes
Mr. Donald John Trump (Republican, New York) / former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newton Leroy Gingrich (Republican, Georgia) 169 electoral votes, 39.8% popular votes
Mr. David Evan McMullin (Independent, Utah) / Mrs. Mindy Finn (Independent, Texas) 6 electoral votes, 4.4% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 electoral votes, 3.0% popular votes
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #1257 on: July 27, 2021, 05:12:45 PM »

This map is based on how many times each state has voted Democratic for president compared to how many times it has voted Republican, updated to 2020, using the apportionment numbers of the 2020 Census. The Democrats narrowly win, and according to a quick check that I made they would do so even if I excluded the years before the Republican Party - the younger of the two - was founded, although only with a plurality.

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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #1258 on: July 30, 2021, 01:53:43 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2021, 01:59:36 PM by Old School Republican »

Democratic Trump:

2008:




2012:




2016:



2020:

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1259 on: August 05, 2021, 01:45:54 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2021, 08:35:05 PM by Calthrina950 »

Following upon my earlier post comparing the OTL 1992 election to the Ferguson Scenario, here's a map comparing the OTL 1996 election to that scenario:


In the OTL 1996 election, Bill Clinton carried 1,541 counties (49.03%) while Bob Dole carried 1,602 counties (50.97%). In contrast to the 1992 election, Ross Perot did not carry any counties with 12 of his 15 counties from 1992 going to Dole and 3 going to Clinton. There were no tied counties in 1996, also in contrast to 1992. As before, Broomfield is counted as a Clinton county and Chugach and Copper River are counted as Dole counties.

Ferguson wins 1,428 of Clinton's counties (92.67%), while Pryor carries 113 (7.33%). This is a very similar breakdown as that for the OTL 1992 election. Most of the Clinton-Pryor counties are in the South and Border States, concentrated in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. This is a reflection of Pryor's greater rural strength in the South compared to Dole. In antebellum free states and postbellum free states, there are only two Clinton-Pryor counties: Warwick County, Indiana, and Juneau County, Wisconsin, two of the same three from the previous election (Cherokee County, Kansas votes for both Dole and Pryor).

Ferguson wins 898 of Dole's counties (56.05%), a majority, while Pryor carries 704 (43.95%). Every Dole county in Alaska, Illinois, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York goes to Ferguson. In Dole's home state of Kansas, where he had a native-son boost that made it his second-best state in 1996, 58 counties are Dole-Ferguson counties (with Ferguson obviously winning the four Clinton counties of Atchison, Crawford, Douglas, and Wyandotte).

As for states, Ferguson wins every Clinton state, carrying all of them by double digits except for Florida (which is his second-closest win, after Idaho). He carries every Dole state except for the four in the Deep South (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) won by Pryor. The Pryor percentages correlate with the Dole percentages in most states aside from Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, and Utah (won by Ferguson) and Alabama (Pryor's home state, where he does more than 10% better than Dole). Ferguson receives a higher percentage than Clinton in every state bar Alabama, including in the other three won by Pryor (though only marginally so in Georgia and South Carolina).

Pryor's percentage of the overall popular vote (38.78%) is a few points lower than Dole's (40.72%), while Ferguson's percentage (61.05%) is significantly higher than Clinton's (49.23%). The third-party vote in the Ferguson Scenario (0.17%) is obviously much smaller than that of 1996 (10.05%). In both elections, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, Illinois, Vermont, and Connecticut are in the top ten for the Democrats, while Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Alabama, South Carolina, and Mississippi are in the top ten for Republicans.
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lord_moxley
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« Reply #1260 on: August 07, 2021, 02:51:42 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1261 on: August 10, 2021, 09:27:55 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2021, 09:45:38 AM by Mr. Kanye West »

Sen map



New Senators
S/ME SEN Jared Golden def Collins
S/PA SEN John Fetterman def Parnell
T/WV SEN Rooney def Manchin
S/WI SEN Barnes def Johnson


GUBERNATORIAL MAP



New Govs
S/AZ GOV Katie Hobbs
T/LA WHOMEVER
S MD GOV BAKER
S/MA GOV DOWNING
S/NH GOV MOLLY KELLY def Ayotte
S/NY GOV KATHY HOCHUL
T/NC WHOMEVER
S/PA GOV SHAPIRO
WC/VA TMAC

2023/2027. OH/MT only split delegates


🧱🧱🧱304 BLUE MAP🧱🧱🧱 NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT

D's or Rs will have 220/215 Members
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1262 on: August 10, 2021, 01:15:13 PM »




Hillary/Kaine v Jeb/Hickabee

2016 without Comey






Senate map
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bagelman
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« Reply #1263 on: August 13, 2021, 03:39:58 AM »



Republican from Wisconsin defeats a Democrat from New England. Both running mates are Californians. Grey states are simply undecided as of Thursday morning.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1264 on: August 13, 2021, 10:44:58 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2021, 11:09:04 AM by Mr. Kanye West »

,2008/2012 Nate Silver maps Obama/Biden
282/256v McCain's/Romney

VERTICALS OUT WEST



2016/2020 Hillary/Biden 304/234
V TRUMP/PENCE

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andjey
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« Reply #1265 on: August 14, 2021, 06:34:23 AM »

1940:


1944:


1948:


Civil Rights Act passed and 22nd Amendment passed

1952:


1956:


1960:

The closest state, Pennsylvania, was decided by 0.03%

1964:


1968:
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andjey
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1266 on: August 14, 2021, 07:34:43 AM »

1972:


1976:


1980:


1984:


1988:


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andjey
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1267 on: August 14, 2021, 04:11:06 PM »

1992:


1996:


2000:


2004:


2008:


2012:


2016:


2020:
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1268 on: August 14, 2021, 04:34:37 PM »

Had Clinton resigned and Gore was the incumbent all states within margin of error would have flipped to Gore Nadar was the difference

2000 D's did a terrible mistake by not making Clinton resign and make Gore the incumbent

WC wanted Clinton to stay die to bubble in Stock Market, but Latinos and Blks that weren't pro Clinton said Clinton must resign

Gore/Lieberman 332
Bush W/ Cheney 208

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Chips
Those Chips
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« Reply #1269 on: August 14, 2021, 06:29:35 PM »

The poster most states remind me of:

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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1270 on: August 15, 2021, 01:58:07 AM »




This works as an alternate 2020 where the polls are more accurate and the nation rejects Trump and Trumpism.



This works as an alternate 2016 where Trump or a stand-in similar to him is able to come across as less of a lunatic to moderate voters while still winning on populism.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1271 on: August 16, 2021, 11:35:35 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2021, 11:41:36 PM by Calthrina950 »

Here is a series of maps depicting the vote by racial group in the Ferguson Scenario:

White (53-47 Ferguson):


Black (95-5 Ferguson):


Hispanic (77-23 Ferguson):


Asian (76-24 Ferguson):


Other (69-31 Ferguson):


Non-White (85-15 Ferguson):


There are tables here of the Ferguson, Pryor, and Other vote by racial group in each state.
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1272 on: August 17, 2021, 02:39:15 PM »

Here's an alternate 2020 scenario where both Ohio and Florida vote for the losing Democratic candidate:



It was hard to come up with a map like this.
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If my soul was made of stone
discovolante
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« Reply #1273 on: August 17, 2021, 04:17:00 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2021, 04:23:15 PM by Gallus - Enaree - Gala - Babaylan Solidarity »

A new spiritual awakening in the wake of the traumatic Second World War propels Henry Wallace to victory on the back of his promise of national renewal through Theosophy:

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1274 on: August 18, 2021, 03:37:51 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2021, 04:01:54 PM by Mr. Kanye West »




Gov map 2023/2027

T AK GOV BILL WALKER TO #1 2022
T AR GOV Huckabee 2022
S AZ GOV KATIE HOBBS 2022 TO# 2
S HI GOV COLLEEN HANABASA 2022
T LA GOV Whomever 2023 TO R# 1
S MD GOV RASHURN BAKER TO #3 2022
S MA GOV BEN DOWNING TO#4 2022
T NEB GOV WHOMEVER 2022
S NH GOV MOLLY KELLY TO #5
S NY GOV KATHY HOCHUL 2022
T NC GOV WHOMEVER 2024  R TO #2
S OR GOV KRISTOFF 2022
S PA GOV JOSH SHAPIRO 2022
WC VA GOV T MAC 2021

D's net 3 GOVS HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF 2018)2019













Sen map 2023/2027
T AL SEN Mo Brooks 2022
S ME SEN Jared Golden 2026 TO#1
T MO SEM Eric Grietans 2022
T NC SEN Pat McCrory 2022
T OH SEN Josh Mandel 2022
S PA SEN JOHN FETTERMAN 2022 TO#2
T WV SEN Mooney 2024 TO R#1
S WI SEN MANDELA BARNES TO#3

Ds net 2 2o27 52)48 SEN

Biden botching Afghanistan hurt our chances in NC, OH
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