Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

✔ Hillary Clinton – 65,853,514 votes
✘ Barack Obama – 65,915,795 votes

This is a map comparing Obama 2012 and Hillary 2016 in terms of raw votes. I saw they got almost the exact same number of voters, so I thought it would be cool to see where their electorates came from. Hillary finally wins the election while losing the popular vote, as the Fates deigned.

The closest state was Maryland, where Hillary got 1,677,928 votes to Obama's 1,677,844, a difference of 84 votes. The widest difference by margin came in North Dakota where Obama got 124,827 votes to Hillary's 93,758, which would be a 14% margin if the election were between their voter bases. And the widest margin in raw votes was of course in California where Hillary's 8,753,788 was 899,503 more than Obama's 7,854,285.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Gary Johnson – 4,449,756 votes*
Robert La Follette – 4,834,706 votes

Did the same thing with two historical candidates, La Follette '24 and Johnson 2016, since each of them got around the same number of votes. La Follette wins the popular vote but gets crushed in the electoral college thanks to the Solid South (typical)

The closest state was Massachusetts, where La Follette won by 3k votes, 141,225-138,018. The most lopsided popular vote margin was naturally in Wisconsin: La Follette 453,678 – 106,674 Johnson.

*Note - excludes votes from AK, DC, & HI, totaling about 40,000 lost Johnson voters.

[bagelman]

Gary Johnson – 4,449,756 votes*
Robert La Follette – 4,834,706 votes

Did the same thing with two historical candidates, La Follette '24 and Johnson 2016, since each of them got around the same number of votes. La Follette wins the popular vote but gets crushed in the electoral college thanks to the Solid South (typical)

The closest state was Massachusetts, where La Follette won by 3k votes, 141,225-138,018. The most lopsided popular vote margin was naturally in Wisconsin: La Follette 453,678 – 106,674 Johnson.

*Note - excludes votes from AK, DC, & HI, totaling about 40,000 lost Johnson voters.

It's less egregious when you consider the huge bias toward Johnson if you use EV numbers from 2012/16/20. The average of 1924 and 2016 is 1970, which would still use the 1964/68 map:



and 1924's numbers



Problem with this comparison is that Fighting Bob was focused on one state. One would need to add the number of votes for each candidate together state by state in a spreadsheet then put that through an apportionment calculator to get a truly fair map.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Cool! Thanks for the bonus maps

[Chips]

Just a random map as I try to get the hang of them

Why does Indiana flip?

[John King wannabe]

Just a random map as I try to get the hang of them

Why does Indiana flip?

Cause everyone hates Josh Hawley.

[Chips]

Just a random map as I try to get the hang of them

Why does Indiana flip?

Cause everyone hates Josh Hawley.

Hawley is from Missouri.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Just a random map as I try to get the hang of them

Why does Indiana flip?

Cause everyone hates Josh Hawley.

Hawley is from Missouri.

I think he means, "everyone hates Josh Hawley" as in "oh he is so unpopular that he'd even lose Indiana!"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Govs 2023-2025 26/24 R control

[ultraviolet]

Problem with this comparison is that Fighting Bob was focused on one state. One would need to add the number of votes for each candidate together state by state in a spreadsheet then put that through an apportionment calculator to get a truly fair map.

I know what I’m doing tonight

[ultraviolet]

So here is Johnson vs. La Follette with apportionment based on only their number of votes combined.



Johnson only barely wins, largely because the South had a lot of EVs taken since La Follette got basically no votes there and Johnson didn't do great there either. Tipping point state is Washington, which was won by 3.26%—around 10,000 votes. Closest state was Massachusetts, La Follette won by 1.16%—just about 3,200 votes.

Interestingly, if La Follette had won WA, he'd have won the election with just 18/48 states

[JoeInator]

1912 vs. 1924: Battle of the Progressives:



Former Pres. Theodore Roosevelt/Sen. Hiram Johnson: 285 EV/46% PV
Sen. Robert La Follette/Sen. Burton K. Wheeler: 246 EV/54% PV

[morgankingsley]

1912 vs. 1924: Battle of the Progressives:



Former Pres. Theodore Roosevelt/Sen. Hiram Johnson: 285 EV/46% PV
Sen. Robert La Follette/Sen. Burton K. Wheeler: 246 EV/54% PV

That pv difference is brutal

[morgankingsley]

Problem with this comparison is that Fighting Bob was focused on one state. One would need to add the number of votes for each candidate together state by state in a spreadsheet then put that through an apportionment calculator to get a truly fair map.

Not to start a war but in pretty sure LaFollette was trying to win a many states as possible. He thought he was going to win a many as 9 which wasn't too egregious considering how close he was to getting several

[ultraviolet]

Problem with this comparison is that Fighting Bob was focused on one state. One would need to add the number of votes for each candidate together state by state in a spreadsheet then put that through an apportionment calculator to get a truly fair map.

Not to start a war but in pretty sure LaFollette was trying to win a many states as possible. He thought he was going to win a many as 9 which wasn't too egregious considering how close he was to getting several

I’m not familiar with his campaign but even if he was targeting up to 9 states, that’s not enough to win the election. So if we change the scenario to him vs. one other person, then something should change, probably the EVs

[JoeInator]

1912 vs. 1924: Battle of the Progressives:



Former Pres. Theodore Roosevelt/Sen. Hiram Johnson: 285 EV/46% PV
Sen. Robert La Follette/Sen. Burton K. Wheeler: 246 EV/54% PV

That pv difference is brutal

No kidding. Interestingly enough I originally did this with the 2020 electoral map and there La Follette beats Roosevelt 297 to 231.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Michael Dukakis - 50.6%
Jimmy Carter - 49.4%

Same as above. Closest states were Missouri (3,232 margin out of 2,000,006 combined votes) and Florida (20,701 margin out of 3,292,701 votes) for Dukakis, surprisingly enough. Flipping these states would have flipped the national election too.

[morgankingsley]

Problem with this comparison is that Fighting Bob was focused on one state. One would need to add the number of votes for each candidate together state by state in a spreadsheet then put that through an apportionment calculator to get a truly fair map.

Not to start a war but in pretty sure LaFollette was trying to win a many states as possible. He thought he was going to win a many as 9 which wasn't too egregious considering how close he was to getting several

I’m not familiar with his campaign but even if he was targeting up to 9 states, that’s not enough to win the election. So if we change the scenario to him vs. one other person, then something should change, probably the EVs

He wasn't only targetting 9 states. He just thought he could win up to 9. But he wanted more obviously. He was trying to do what thurmond and Wallace did after him. Win enough states to deny a electoral majority where he knew he would win instead of Davis and Coolidge. The only difference was that thurmond and Wallace were either mostly or entirely southern campaign, where LaFollette was a national campaign directed mostly west of Michigan and north of Oklahoma

[Chips]

2016 election: Trump wins popular vote, Hillary wins electoral college



Hillary Clinton: 272 electoral votes
Donald Trump: 266 electoral votes

Popular vote:

Donald Trump: 47.2%
Hillary Clinton: 46.7%

Protests rage after the election and go on well into Clinton's presidency. Democrats have an abysmal 2018 where they're reduced to about 39 senate seats and 165-ish seats in the House.

Trump gives it another go in 2020 and wins the election with a solid margin in both the electoral college and popular vote.



Donald Trump: 355 electoral votes
President Clinton: 183 electoral votes

Popular vote:

Donald Trump: 52.6%
President Clinton: 45.4%

[CookieDamage]

1989 General Election



1994 General Election



1999 General Election



May 2002 General Election



September 2002 General Election

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Problem with this comparison is that Fighting Bob was focused on one state. One would need to add the number of votes for each candidate together state by state in a spreadsheet then put that through an apportionment calculator to get a truly fair map.

Not to start a war but in pretty sure LaFollette was trying to win a many states as possible. He thought he was going to win a many as 9 which wasn't too egregious considering how close he was to getting several

Also, not going into a war either, but I appreciate how the three closest states (NV, ND, and MT) would only have given LaFollette 12 more EVs, one less than WI had at the time.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

From a President Infinity Game (Observing)



Vice President Kamala Harris/Mayor Andrew Yang: 55.5%, 364 EV
Gov. Ron DeSantis/Sen. Tim Scott: 42.8%, 174 EV
Others: 1.7%

Closest states:
Florida: DeSantis+0.1 (lol)
North Carolina: DeSantis+0.6
Indiana: DeSantis+0.6
Maine At-Large: DeSantis+0.6
Iowa: Harris+1.1
Texas: Harris+4.3
Arizona: Harris+4.4

[CookieDamage]

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

From a President Infinity Game (Observing)



Vice President Kamala Harris/Mayor Andrew Yang: 55.5%, 364 EV
Gov. Ron DeSantis/Sen. Tim Scott: 42.8%, 174 EV
Others: 1.7%

Closest states:
Florida: DeSantis+0.1 (lol)
North Carolina: DeSantis+0.6
Indiana: DeSantis+0.6
Maine At-Large: DeSantis+0.6
Iowa: Harris+1.1
Texas: Harris+4.3
Arizona: Harris+4.4

It seems a bit bullish on Kamala, but ME-AL stands out as way too bearish on Kamala/Yang. Florida is a bit funky too like you mentioned.

[Andrew Yang 2024]

In my opinion this would be Yang vs Trump. But I'm probably biased bc I'm a Yang fan so well Trump might do better(he probably does).