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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kalwejt, Apocrypha)
  One America Divided: 2020 Election (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: One America Divided: 2020 Election  (Read 7097 times)
YaBB God
Posts: 4,395

« on: January 28, 2019, 12:09:05 am »

When will Biden make his announcement in your TL?
YaBB God
Posts: 4,395

« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2019, 10:02:27 pm »

Gavin Newsom Endorses Kamala Harris; Joe Cunningham Endorses Joe Biden
Febuary 23rd, 2020

CNN- Momutum is continuing to grow for Kamala Harris who just won the Nevada caucus last night. Harris earned the endorsement of Eric Holder, the former Attorney General, in last nights victory rally in Nevada. Holder previously endorsed Andrew Gillum and he continued to praise the former mayor but told the press that it just wasn't Gillum's time. Holder wasn't the only new endorsement for the junior Senator from California. Harris now is endorsed by the Governor of California Gavin Newsom, an ally of Harris for a while in California politics.

Newsom's endorsement of Harris is another blow to Representative Eric Swalwell's bid for president. Swalwell in lue of falling polls in early states, early in the race, decided to withdrawal efforts in New Hampshire and South Carolina and place all efforts in California and Nevada. In Nevada, Swalwell only earned two delegates and seventh place. Now the only road left for Swalwell to the nomination is through a win in California and he needs all the support he can get. Swalwell did earn the endorsement of his predecessor in Congress, Pete Stark, and State Senator Kevin De Leon who came close to taking down Dianne Feinstein, the senior senator in California. Still, it may not be enough especially as much of the California Democratic establishment has supported Harris.

While Swalwell's bid for president continues to fall apart and Harris surges ahead, Joe Biden has also started to gain some new endorsements ahead of the crucial South Carolina primary. Biden has earned the endorsement of Joe Cunnigham, the freshmen Democrat in a pretty-heavy Republican seat. Cunningham beat a pro-Trump Republican who toke out Congressman Mark Sanford in the primary. Cunnighman announced his endorsement of fellow blue-dog Democrat, Joe Biden, in a rally inside of his district. Cunningham also announced his endorsement of the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Senate, Jamie Harrison. Cunningham said that he supported Biden because 'seats like mine flipped because we were able to win over independents and Republicans with our moderate message in 2018 and that is how we will in 2020 too. The candidate with a moderate message that can win is Joe Biden. He has my full endorsement and I will do everything to help him win not only the South Carolina primary but everything I can to help him win the White House."

Cunningham went on to warn of nominating a progressive candidate with radical policies like Harris. Cunningham stated, "If we nominate someone like Harris or Sanders then we will lose the presidency, the American truly have concerns with their policies and nominating someone like that might cost us a few house seats too especially mine in a pretty-red area."

Bennet Endorsed By Udall and Polis
Febuary 24th, 2020

Washington Post- In the normally uncompetitive caucus of Colorado is receiving a lot of attention from two favorite sons. The two favorite sons, former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, formed a 'Colorado Pact' between the campaigns that have made the state all so important for the state. The pact will make whoever loses Colorado drop out and endorse the other favorite son as both Bennet and Hickenlooper are allies and friends.

Bennet has now started to pull out all the stops for a win in Colorado and has basically only campaigned in Colorado since Nevada and will till Super Tuesday. Hickenlooper, on the other hand, has been travel between Colorado and Oklahoma knowing if he just wins Colorado, it won't be enough for him to catch up to other candidates like Kamala Harris.

Bennet has started to win over some supporters in Colorado including two important Democratic politicians in the state. Former Senator Mark Udall who lost reelection in 2014 and Governor Jared Polis who is a former Congressman both endorsed Bennet who they worked with on Capitol Hill. Polis and Udall both are going campaign with Bennet in Colorado ahead of Super Tuesday.

Bill Weld Suprises Trump Again in Nevada
Febuary 25th, 2020

The Green Papers- President Donald Trump has once again lost some of his momentum but has further gained a lead in delegates. In Nevada, Trump won with a substantial margin. At least according to the President, he did win with just over sixty percent of the vote but just losing thirty or forty percent of your base could potentially be devasting to a general election campaign. President Trump continues to claim victories from these early primary wins and in a rally, he held in Florida tonight said, "Have you heard of that loser Bill Weld, 0-4. Bill can't win more than thirty or forty percent of the vote and all those press in the crowd are calling him the winner. What a joke!"

Weld had spent a substantial amount of time and gained the endorsement of former Governor Brian Sandoval after having a strong performance in New Hampshire. Weld even was boasting his performance in Nevada in South Carolina after his beating in the primary where President Trump won more than eighty percent of the vote. Weld did do well in Nevada and surprised many pundits again with his results and won multiple delegates in the state.

Official Nevada Republican Caucus on Febuary 25th, 2020
30 Delegates
Donald Trump: 63.4% (19)
Bill Weld: 36.6% (11)

Gabbard Touts Military Record in South Carolina
Febuary 27th, 2020

The Post and Courier- In the heavily military state, Representative Tulsi Gabbard is boasting about her military record. Gabbard had a strong performance in Iowa and has yet been able to build on her momentum coming off her strong performance but she hopes she can once again revitalize her momentum in a strong finish in South Carolina. In an interview with Gabbard, she stated, "I hope my military record will help win over veterans because we haven't had a veteran in the White House since the 1990s. I hope I can also win over women especially since I believe I can be a strong influence for young girls, not every day do you see a strong woman in politics especially in the presidency."

Gabbard has toured the state since the New Hampshire primary and has taken occasionally trips to Super Tuesday states including her birthplace in American Somoa. Gabbard isn't too far back but she is not in the top tier of candidates either where Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Cory Booker are. Booker, Biden, and Harris are all in a tight fight for first place in the state and at this point, anyone could win.

South Carolina is Booker Country
Febuary 29th, 2020

The New York Times- At the begging of the night, the New York Times was told that if Booker didn't take home the prize tonight then he would suspend his campaign and endorse whoever won. Booker even seemed very surprised as early results started to come in and even before the official results came were in, Booker left his suite to start writing a victory speech. His crowd became bigger and bigger as more results started to come in and media from around the state started leaving both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's victory rallies.

Though Harris had momentum coming out of Nevada, Booker and Biden had been building an organization in South Carolina. Biden and Booker had also been gaining endorsements to set them on top including the two Representatives. In some senses, this was also a victory for Biden even if he came in second. Biden had trouble keeping up with the other candidates as they rose and fell but this has turned around his campaign that had been falling in the rankings in results.

While Booker had a tremendous victory in South Carolina and Biden has started to turn around his poor news, Harris, on the other hand, could not claim victory. Harris was expecting a victory and she even admitted that this was not what she hoped when talking with the press outside her rally. This is not even close to the end of her campaign though by any means. Harris has had a strong performance in most early states and is close to becoming first in delegates.

According to one of the creators of the circus, "going into Super Tuesday, Booker has big [momtum], Biden and Harris has the money while Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Brown, Gabbard and so on are all trying to win their first or second wins."

Official Democratic South Carolina Results on Febuary 29th, 2020
59 Delegates
Cory Booker: 20.8% (17)
Joe Biden: 14.6% (14)
Kamala Harris: 14.5% (14)
Terry McAullife: 10.2% (9)
Stacey Abrams: 9.7% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.5% (4)
Andrew Gillum: 6.3% (3)
Julian Castro: 4.4% (1)
Beto O'Rourke: 2.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 2.1%
Bernie Sanders: 1.6%
Sherrod Brown: 1.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.0%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.7%
John Hickenlooper: 0.5%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.4%
Michael Bennet: 0.3%
Jeff Merkley: 0.2%
Steve Bullock: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%

Abrams, Gillum, Buttigieg, Delaney, Bullock Ends Campaigns
March 1st, 2020

NBC News- Not everyone in South Carolina had the night they wished for like Cory Booker and Joe
Biden. Multiple campaigns were ended tonight after poor results in South Carolina or their campaigns have had bad result after bad result and it was not turned around by South Carolina. With a total of five campaigns ending after tonight, the field of candidates is now down to seventeen which is almost half of the original total.

The first to leave the race was long-shot Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana. Buttigieg has had bad results in the first four early contest with his highest being three percent in Iowa. Buttigieg does have one delegate to the convection and that could help influence some candidates to get his endorsement in a very close race at the convection. Buttigieg started to call his biggest donors this morning to tell them of his decision. Buttigieg was planning on having a rally in South Carolina but canceled in the afternoon and sent an email to the press that he would drop out and in a rally next week in South Bend who announced his plans for the future. Many believe Buttigieg will join the Indiana-02 race since Buttigieg has told media that he will be keeping most staff that worked in his headquarters in Indiana.

The Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock, decided he would end his campaign right before the polls officially closed in South Carolina according to his press sectary. Bullock was hoping for a better performance in Iowa and after a dismal showing there, Bullock looked towards Nevada. On the day of the Nevada Caucus, Bullock was prepared to concede the race but Bullock decided to not concede right before he was going on stage. It wasn't till today that Bullock realized there were few paths for him to the nomination. By the time the exit polls showing him last and second to last, Bullock knew the time to leave the race was today. Bullock announced in his home state that he would leave the race and endorsed Joe Biden.

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum both hoped for good performances tonight but both failed to capture any of the first three places. Gillum had a rough week starting with Eric Holder switching his endorsement to Kamala Harris and then ending with getting in the middle of the pack in a state he put all his money into. In his rally which he hoped would be a victory rally that turned into a suspension rally, he endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders and thanked Sanders for all the help he got in turning out the vote in 2018. Abrams, on the other hand, endorsed Senator Kamala Harris. Abrams stated that Harris is the strongest candidate in the race and is the strongest against President  Trump. Abrams, in a statement released to her supporters, wrote "In 2018, harsh voter suspension tatics were used against people of color in Georgia. In 2020, they will probably use them again but don't let them scare you away from voting. Kamala Harris will be on that ballot and they don't want that but they better get used to it because she is going to replace the racist in the White House next year."

The last candidate to suspend his campaign was former Representative John Delaney who was the longest candidate in the race by far. Delaney had a good performance in Iowa and kept the momentum going into New Hampshire but in South Carolina and Nevada, Delaney couldn't get above one or two percent. Delaney hoped for a good performance in Virginia which is next door to his home state of Maryland but with former Governor Terry McAullife staying in the race, Delaney believed he wouldn't be able to even get in the top three so in the early morning, Delaney suspended his campaign on an interview with Jack Tapper and he endorsed former Governor John Hickenlooper.

Doug Jones Warns of Progressive Nominee
March 2nd, 2020

Vox- The first Democratic senator to be elected in Alabama in twenty-five years, Doug Jones, who is in a close reelection fight is warning voters not to elect a progressive nominee in 2020. Jones could be one of the easiest seats to be flipped in the general election towards Republicans and Jones says that his reelection bid will 'basically be dead' if the Democrats nominate a progressive like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Jones says that not only is his seat in jeopardy if they Democrats move to extreme policies but other candidates are too.

Jones stated that Democrats like Tina Smith and Jeanna Shaheen would also face tougher fights since many more voters want a centrist candidate for president which is why Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Bill Weld, and other pragmatic candidates have such high favorabilities. Jones also announced his endorsement of Senator Cory Booker who helped campaign with then-candidate Jones when he was in a close contest with Roy Moore.

The freshmen Senator is facing a tough reelection fight and could be facing a serious challenge for his job that he won in an upset over Roy Moore two years earlier. Jones says he is confident he has a strong campaign and strong volunteers that will lead him to victory especially if someone like Amy Klobuchar or Joe Biden was the nominee since that will win over NeverTrump Republicans in addition to independents.

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 11.4% (+0.9)
Joe Biden: 10.9% (+0.7)
Kamala Harris: 9.8% (+2.6)
Bernie Sanders: 9.4% (-0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.8% (-0.1)
Cory Booker: 7.5% (+2.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.4% (+0.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9% (-0.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.2% (+0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 3.6% (-0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 3.4%(+0.6)
Michael Bennet: 2.3% (+0.2)
Julian Castro: 2.1% (+0.6)
Terry McAullife: 1.0% (+0.9)
Eric Swalwell: 0.7% (+0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 0.4% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkley: 0.2% (+0.2)
Undecided: 16.0% (-0.Cool

Democrats Delegate Count
Kamala Harris: 29
Joe Biden: 28
Cory Booker: 17
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Terry McAullife: 9
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Tulsi Gabbard: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Julian Castro: 7
Stacey Abrams: 6
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
Donald Trump: 107
Bill Weld: 21
Ann Coulter: 5

Normally, in a Democratic primary contest, you need to get at least 15 % of the vote in order to have a share of delegates.
YaBB God
Posts: 4,395

« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2019, 08:05:49 am »
« Edited: March 10, 2019, 11:55:20 pm by UWS »

I think the DNC is definitely going to be brokered.
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