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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Abandon hope all ye who register here, Apocrypha)
  One America Divided: 2020 Election
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Author Topic: One America Divided: 2020 Election  (Read 6867 times)
Joe and Mika are home wreckers.
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« Reply #25 on: January 31, 2019, 11:57:10 am »

Since were on the third party thing, who are the possible Constitution Party candidates Tongue
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« Reply #26 on: January 31, 2019, 01:58:44 pm »
« Edited: February 09, 2019, 03:59:50 pm by terp40hitch »

Two more senators join the race
April 18th, 2019

New York Times- Seven senators have already joined the race and now two more senators are joining the race. Michael Bennet, the Senator from Colorado who gained national attention when he attacked Ted Cruz for his Shutdown in January, and Jeff Merkley, the Senator from Oregon, both launched their bids in their respective states over the weekend. Merkley talked about progressive values while Bennet discussed the need of bipartisanship and pragmatism in politics which is the message the other Coloradian in the race has also made the front and center in his campaign.

Merkley and Bennet both are polling within one to two percent nationwide but Bennet has somewhat strong polling in New Hampshire. Bennet has polled within four to five percent in New Hampshire which is below the other colordian, John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper is like the 2016 version of John Kasich and has based his whole centrist campaign in New Hampshire and it has started to pay off a little. Hickenlooper has started polling between six and seven percent and has a strong organization.

Merkley, on the other hand, has not much upside. Merkley could win over former Sander supporters that have not yet committed but he will be competing with Tulsi Gabbard and Elizabeth Warren who are two much stronger candidates. Merkley's strongest early state is probably New Hampshire with his progressive approach.

Minnesota Democrat-Farmer Labor Party Endorses Amy Klobuchar
April 20th, 2019

Minnesota DFL- Today, the Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota is endorsing its home state's, Senator Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar has proven with her service to Minnesota that she is ready to serve the nation. Klobuchar is ready to fix the nation after four years of dysfunction under President Donald Trump. Trump has allowed incompetent leaders to take control of the nation while he throws fits in the oval office when he doesn't get his way. Klobuchar has always stood by Minnesota as Trump has tried to hurt the nation like when he nominated Judge Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh is a sexual assaulter and has no place on that court and Klobuchar did everything to do to stop his nomination.

The Minnesota DFL will do everything in its power to get Klobuchar nominated and then elected. The DFL will have volunteers and staff to help Klobuchar in her campaign and will send surrogates to important states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

Former Brown Challenger Attacks Him Over Abuse Scandel
April 21st, 2019

Columbus Dispatch- Senator Sherrod Brown and now, presidential candidate Sherrod Brown is now receiving attacks from his 2018 opponent and former Congressmen Jim Renacci. Renacci who has been continuously a critic of Brown since his close loses in the 2018 midterms especially over abortion. Renacci who is one hundred percent pro-life has attacked Brown over his support of both the New York and Virginia pro-choice legislation that allows a fetus to be killed up to the birth. Now, Renacci is once again attacking Brown over his alleged abuse against his ex-wife.

In 2018, Renacci brought this up as a hail mary and helped him raise Brown's unfavorites and was able to raise his poll numbers a small amount. Soon after the attacks, Brown and his ex-wife said it was not apporatate and is a personal issue, not a public issue. Both Brown and his ex-wife have been close friends since the nasty divorce in the 1980s. Since the early 2000's Brown has been happily married to Conny Shultz.

Now, Renacci has once again tried to attack Brown on his past relationship and has stated, "Brown is not fit for the office of president especially morally. Brown believes it is moral to kill a living human up to birth and he has physically abused his ex-wife. That is not the president that the United States deserves as its president."

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Joe Biden: 13.1% (-0.8 )
Bernie Sanders: 13.1% (+0.3)
Beto O'Rourke: 9.5% (+0.0)
Kamala Harris: 7.6% (+0.2)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.0% (+0.4)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.7% (+0.6)
Kristen Gillibrand: 4.8% (-0.5)
Cory Booker: 4.2% (+0.5)
Andrew  Gillum: 3.9% (+0.7)
Sherrod Brown: 3.5% (-0.1)
Jay Inslee: 2.4% (+0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.1% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.9% (+0.9)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.6% (+0.5)
Michael Bloomberg: 1.5% (+0.0)
Julian Castro: 1.4% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 1.2% (+0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 0.9%(-0.4)
Tim Ryan: 0.7% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 0.6% (+0.5)
Seth Moulton: 0.5% (-0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.5% (+0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 0.4% (+0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.3% (-0.2)
Eric Swalwell: 0.2% (-0.1)
Andrew Yang: 0.2% (+0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.1% (+0.0)
Eric Holder: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 17.1% (-3.2)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 18.9% (-0.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 12.1% (+1.1)
Beto O'Rourke: 9.8% (-0.3 )
Sherrod Brown: 8.9% (-0.2)
Bernie Sanders: 8.2% (+0.7 )
Elizabeth Warren: 5.2% (+0.8 )
John Delaney: 3.8% (+0.1)
Kamala Harris: 3.7% (-0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.6% (+0.0)
Tim Ryan: 2.9% (+0.4)
Cory Booker: 2.6% (+0.2)
Andrew Gillum: 1.6% (-0.6)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.5% (+0.4)
Michael Bennet: 1.5% (+0.8 )
John Hickenlooper: 1.3% (+0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.1% (+0.3)
Michael Bloomberg: 1.0% (-0.1)
Kristen Gillibrand: 0.8 (-0.1)
Seth Moulton: 0.7% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.6% (+0.3)
Andrew Yang: 0.6% (+0.0)
Jeff Merkely: 0.5% (+0.4)
Eric Swalwell: 0.1% (-0.1)
Bill De Blasio: 0.1% (-0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Terry McAullife: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 8.9% (-3.3)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 15.9% (+1.1)
Bernie Sanders: 15.8% (+0.2)
Kristen Gillibrand: 8.5% (+0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 6.2% (+0.2)
Joe Biden: 5.9% (-0.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.7% (-0.6)
Michael Bloomberg: 5.5% (+0.1)
Michael Bennet: 4.8% (+1.4)
Seth Moulton: 4.0% (+0.2)
Kamala Harris: 3.7% (-0.4)
Bill De Blasio: 2.5% (-0.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.0% (+0.1)
Cory Booker: 1.9% (-0.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 1.5% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 1.2% (+0.9)
Tim Ryan: 1.0% (+0.2)
Jay Inslee: 0.9% (-0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 0.8% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.8% (+0.0)
Andrew Gillum: 0.6% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 0.5% (+0.3)
Marianna Williamson: 0.1% (-0.2)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.1% (+0.0)
Terry McAuliffe: 0.0% (-0.2)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 14.0% (-3.0)
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« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2019, 04:53:36 pm »

Joe Biden won't make a decision till after first Debate; Inslee and McAullife Launch Bids
May 12th, 2019

AP- MSNBC annouced on May 7th that the first debate would be held and the stage would be set on May 25th which could have rushed two of the frontrunners, Beto O'Rourke and Joe Biden, to annouce their bids to make a spot on the first debate. Now, Biden has annouced that no decision for a presidential bid has yet been reached nor will it by the time of the first debate. This could hurt his bid that has already been falling in the polls more and it turns attention away from his potential bid to an underdog who performs better than expected. On the other hand, this could also help, Biden's potential bid since Biden has never been a strong debater and announcing soon after the debate would take away any momentum to the frontrunners.

Two other candidates who could have been rushed by the deadline joined the field instead of pushing the debate off. Former Governor of Virginia and Former DNC Chairmen Terry McAullife and Governor of Washington and former DGA Chairmen Jay Inslee both announced their bids during the week in New Hampshire. Inslee and McAullife both started off reasonable in the polls but their prolonged decision making cut some of the support as other campaigns were getting kicked off the ground. McAullife and Inslee both discussed the importance of experience at their launches but Inslee took a much more aggressive approach to climate change which could hurt him in the midwest especially in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia which are heavy coal states. This could also hurt him with the manufacturing industry and unions which will end up costing him votes in the crucial first state of Iowa.
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« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2019, 08:01:23 pm »
« Edited: February 08, 2019, 09:24:40 pm by terp40hitch »

Beto For President; Holder is Out, Endorses Gillum
May 21st, 2019

Des Moines Register- After months of consideration of running for president after a failed bid for Senate, former Congressmen Beto O'Rourke is running. For the past few months, Beto has kept quiet and toured the country while many local activists in the local state where angered with his silence. Beto and his closest advisor had yet to give off wether Beto would run or not which promoted many local activists to stop waiting and join other campaigns. This is why a slide in the polls for Beto has continued since January where he was polling as high as twenty percent and now is half of that at ten percent to thirteen percent. Even without Beto on the ground in early states, he has had a huge draft effort in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina that held events even to pressure Beto to run so that local Democrats abandoned his campaign, more then they were already doing.

With information realised by Politico, Beto was planning a launch in early June but was rushed and scrambled to find the perfect location for his launch so he could make the debate and not sit aside like Joe Biden. This could have a similar effect to Gabbard's campaign launch which was not planned. Gabbard found momentum early but then stories that the campaign was not prepared for because it was launched early came out and her momentum all but died. Beto could have a similar effect but he is much more known nationwide than Gabbard was when she launched a bid for the White House.

With Beto in, another potential candidate closed the door to a bid. Eric Holder who had been struggling in the polls and would be locked out of the first debate said he would forgo a run and gave his support to Andrew Gillum who is another 2018 star like Beto O'Rourke. Holder was visiting early states to prep but a long wait hurt his polls and many of his donors left his campaign for either Gillum, Kamala Harris or Cory Booker according to a leaked email from his campaign staff.

Democratic Debate is Set
May 25th, 2018

MSNBC- Today, MSNBC and the Democratic National Commitee have a agreed on two debates on the same night with random candidates for each candidate. The first debate will be held at six pm. eastern and the second debate will be held on nine pm eastern time. All major candidates will be invited to the debate including the new entries of Beto O'Rourke, Jay Inslee and Terry McAullife and MSNBC invites Joe Biden to attend if he wishes. The Debate candidate set up is shown below:

6 PM Debate: thirteen candidates
Marianna Williamson  Eric Swalwell  Bill De Blasio Richard Ojeda Jeff Merkley  John Hickenlooper  Julian Castro  Pete Buttigieg  Tulsi Gabbard  Sherrod Brown  Cory Booker  Elizabeth Warren  Kamala Harris
 Bernie Sanders

9 PM Debate: Twelve Candidates
Andrew Yang  Terry McAullife  Seth Moulton  Tim Ryan   John Delaney  Michael Bloomberg  Michael Bennet  Andrew Gillum  Kristen Gillibrand  Amy Klobuchar  Beto O'Rourke

Swalwell Pulling Staff From Iowa and New Hampshire, Reajusting stragey
May 27th, 2019

Huffington Post- With low poll numbers and struggling fundraising, Represenative Eric Swalwell is refocusing his efforts in the 2020 election away from the first to early states. Swalwell has reportdly started to fire or resign staff in both Iowa and New Hampshire in an attempt to not so heavily rely on good showings in those two early states. Swalwell will also close all open offices in those states execpt for one each and will cancel all openings for offices. This could be the begging of the end for his campaign or this could be part of the end for him. Maybe his end started to come after a rough launch and his fellow Califronian endorsing Kamala Harris over him.

Still, Swalwell is confident in his campaign and stated, "Iowa and New Hampshire do not represent America and for too long the American people have to see how they vote. That should end and I believe I will be able to end it with the right stragey." Swalwell is reportly ramping efforts in his homestate and in Nevada which could pay off but you could always ask President Rudy if it worked for him.
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« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2019, 10:40:10 pm »

Michael Bennet must win.
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« Reply #30 on: February 03, 2019, 10:59:49 am »

Since were on the third party thing, who are the possible Constitution Party candidates Tongue
Probably Darrell Castle again but I will have a few post about the cp party for you near their convention
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« Reply #31 on: February 03, 2019, 04:46:30 pm »

Ann Coulter Gives Trump Second Primary Challenger
June 2nd, 2019

Washington Post-President Trump weakened and open to a primary challenge has earned yet another challenger. After very poor results in the midterm elections and then a prolonged shutdown with no wall funding hurt Trump's chances of making it to the nomination without a primary challenge. First, Former Governor Bill Weld announced his challenge to President Trump in April and has had a slow rise in New Hampshire where he is polling around fifteen to twenty percent. Now, one of Trump's first supporters is launching her own bid for president.

The author of the book "In Trump We Trust" and conservative commentator Ann Coulter is running for president after weeks of attacking Trump for being weak and incompetent. Coulter had a draft effort for her bid since the midterms when Coulter blamed Trump for the large loses. With the entrance of Coulter, that means, Trump will be having challenges from both sides of the political spectrum, Far-Right and Moderate to Libertarian.

Coulter's bid will further hurt Trump's bid for reelection and make Iowa a semi-competitive state. When it was just Weld running, he was just mainly focusing on New Hampshire where he would have a home state advantage. Now, Coulter will be putting efforts in the more conservative state of Iowa which will make Trump have to build up operations in two smaller states instead of focusing on bigger, more competitive general election states like Ohio and Florida.

Gallup Poll of Iowa Republicans
Sample Size: 647
Donald Trump: 58.7%
Ann Coulter: 21.2%
Bill Weld: 6.5%
Undecided: 13.6%

Human Rights Campaign Endorses Mayor Pete
June 3rd, 2019

Bloomberg- The nations largest pro-LGBT organization is endorsing the first major LGBT candidate for president. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is endorsed by the Human Rights Campaign or the HRC in a letter sent out to all supporters. This is a suprise to the dark horse campaign even if Pete Buttigieg is the only major gay candidate to run. In a message sent out by Facebook earlier today, Buttigieg's campaign stated, "We are overjoyed that HRC endorsed our presidential campaign and we are surprised by the enthusiasm they have given to our campaign."

This could help bring Buttigieg up in the polls with being in the news which he has lacked recently since his campaign launch. The real thing that is helping through the endorsment is, HRC pledging groundtroops and staff to help with Buttigieg's campaign which has yet to take off the ground.

What to expect?
June 4th, 2019

FiveThirtyEight- The first Democratic debate is being held tomorrow in Virginia with the largest field ever. At this time, we have over twenty-five candidates and still more candidates are considering bids. The biggest of those still considering bids are Joe Biden with a few smaller names like Steve Bullock still looking at a bid even in the later part of the early stages of 2020. Bullock, Biden and the other candidates need to get in fast or their supporters will start to abandon them for others that gain momentum from things like debates.

The candidates that need some good performances are Tulsi Gabbard, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris who are all in a negative momentum at this point. Harris, Warren, and Gabbard are all good speakers which will benefit them but it will be hard to disguntish them with such a large field unless they truly stick out. Those three candidates aren't the only ones needed to help their bids for president. Every candidate needs to stand out in their respective ideology like centrism, populism and socialism which once had one candidate in past election cycles now have around three or four candidates per ideology with a few candidates without a core ideology base which they need to find for the first debate to win support.

Many candidates also need to go into deeper specifics with a policy like Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson who are both campaigning on very radical policy like a universal basic income and slavery reparations. Both, since they are little known with little polls, are not getting focus on these radical policies and so have yet to describe them in detail.

No matter who wins or if someone wins, the first debate will be one of the most watched events this year for politics.

Princton Poll of South Carolina Democrats
Sample Size: 1,098
Kamala Harris: 20.8%
Andrew Gillum: 15.1%
Joe Biden: 10.5%
Cory Booker: 10.4%
Terry McAullife: 6.7%
Bernie Sanders: 4.6%
Seth Moulton: 4.3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.9%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.8%
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.4%
Richard Ojeda: 1.3%
Sherrod Brown: 0.9%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.7%
Michael Bloomberg: 0.5%
Jay Inslee: 0.5%
John Delaney: 0.4%
Eric Swalwell: 0.3%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.2%
Julian Castro: 0.1%
John Hickenlooper: 0.1%
Tim Ryan: 0.1%
Marianne Williamson: 0.0%
Jeff Merkley: 0.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.0%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 15.9%
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« Reply #32 on: February 03, 2019, 05:12:07 pm »

Did Kasich Decline to run?
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« Reply #33 on: February 08, 2019, 09:56:10 pm »

Gabbard, Ojeda Come Out of First Debate as Winners
June 5th, 2019

MSNBC- The first debate has just finished in Arlington, Virginia and two clear winners came out of the first debate but there was also one big loser for the first debate. Debates can make or break campaigns and there are only ten debates for Democrats making every single one very important for the presidency. Nothing proves how important debates are then the stand-out debate of Carly Fiorina and the campaign ending debate moment for Rick Perry in 2012. Now, there is another stand-out star from the presidential debate. Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard was clearly the strongest candidate coming strong against Trump while repeating many of the same anti-establishment rhetoric.

Tulsi Gabbard shined when she first went after Senator Kamala Harris. Gabbard went after Harris judicial nominee question and called it religious bigotry something she called out Harris for earlier in the campaign. Gabbard while pointing to Harris stated, "As a Hindu woman, I have continually faced religious bigotry. In America, no one should face bigotry of any kind especially religious bigotry when we were the land of the free and have freedom of religion written in the rules for our government. Sadly, the same bigotry I face as a Hindu, have been spread by Kamala Harris and her questioning on the judiciary committee. I have continually called her out for her religious bigotry and will continue because nobody in this country should ever face that bigotry." Harris tried to respond but Gabbard cut her off by saying, "When I was 21, I was elected as the youngest state legislature in the nation but I sacrificed that position to serve this nation so at least one nation in this world can be true, the home of the free including freedom of religion and free of bigotry like what you, Kamala, have spread on the judiciary committee."

Gabbard was the star of the show and landed punch after punch on the frontrunner of the debate, Kamala Harris, but another winner in the debate. The dark horse of the primary, State Senator Richard Ojeda, also had many shining moments at the debate that has helped his campaign. Ojeda began his opening speech calling out the political class which he did throughout the debate and saying, "Drinking a beer in your kitchen doesn't make you relatable, Getting a Dental check-up doesn't make you relatable. What does relate to the American people? Is being concerned about whether or not you can afford your mortgage or worried that your children will basically have two choices between being a druggie, a coal miner or a solider. That is why I am relatable, I am worried about my mortgage, I am worried where my children will become as my parents did before me." Ojeda also tried to play to progressive and climate change activist, saying, "West Virginia is coal country and I am pro-coal but I will not put short term economic gain for long term worldly suffering. I will fight climate change and I will not sacrifice our coal miners either."

Ojeda and Gabbard came out of the debate as a winner but there was one big loser, Senator Kamala Harris. Harris launched in the polls following her launch but has constantly fallen in the polls ever since and her sub-par organization has not helped her bid. Now, Harris has had another stubble on her bid for the president. Harris started by being attacked by Gabbard for religious bigotry and that only opened her up to more attacks from fellow competitors. Harris did have one high moment at the begging when she called out Williamson's 'ridcoulous' reparations plan but then Williamson came back to attack Harris for her racist criminal justice policies as attorney general, saying, "Kamala, at least I am trying to heal the racial inequality in this country. As attorney general, you made more racial inequality and you locked up more inconnent people than even Jeff Sessions." After that stark rebuke of Harris comments, Harris responded by saying in a fiery rebuttal, "Don't try to lecture me about racial inequality, never in your life have you faced racism. Throughout my life, I faced racism from my time as D.A. to today." If you only watched that part then Harris would be the clear winner but watching the full debate with the Gabbard attacks and then Ojeda andSenator Sherrod Brown attacking her on the Green New Deal caused Harris to fall to be the loser of the debate.

MSNBC Flash Poll of First Debate on June 5th, 2019
Sample Size: 593
Tulsi Gabbard: 43%
Richard Ojeda: 17%
Sherrod Brown: 11%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Eric Swalwell:4%
Cory Booker: 4%
Bernie Sanders:3%
John Hickenlooper: 2%
Pete Buttigieg: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Bill De Blasio: 1%
Kamala Harris: 1%
Jeff Merkley: 0%
Marianna Williamson: 0%
Undecided: 3%

After Rough Debate, Williamson Earns Endorsment of Oprah
June 5th, 2019

Fox News- Minutes after a rough debate, the little-known author Marianna Williamson was endorsed by Oprah Winfrey who is good friends with Williamson. In a message on FaceBook, Oprah went into details about why she supports Williamson even with some of the more radical policies including reparations for slavery. In her message, she wrote, "No matter whether you support Marianne or you don't, we can all agree that she has confidence, she is a strong woman and will stand with her positions no matter what any other candidate says which is why I am endorsing Williamson for president. I urge my friends and followers to join this evolution."

The last line of the endorsement saying Williamson will stand with her positions no 'matter what any other candidate says' could be a reference to the debate tonight where Senator Kamala Harris attack Williamson for her reparations plan. Harris went after for the most radical policy for Williamson and called her out when Williamson said this will heal inequality. Both Williamson and Harris have been called the 'losers' of the first debate that finished after two hours of screaming and shouting between the candidates.

Oprah endorsement could help pull away from the negative headlines that could follow the bad debate performance. This could also pull up Williamson's lagging poll numbers that have remained below one percent national and the first two early states. Williamson's highest poll number was in California, her home state but she was still polling only at two percent.

Gillibrand and Klobuchar Overperform while Tim Ryan suffers
June 5th, 2019

Politico- In the first debate, Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard and State Senator Richard Ojeda had been dubbed the 'winners' of the first debate while Senator Kamala Harris took a big loss with a bad debate performance. Now, the second debate has just finished and two clear candidates did a much better than expected performance. No candidate truly had an awful debate performance like Kamala Harris had but Congressmen Tim Ryan did suffer in the debate.

Senator Amy Klobuchar was able to fill the void left by the absence of Joe Biden in the debate and played herself as the pragmatic candidate in the race. Delaney and Hickenlooper both tried to play the same card with some success and both saying they are the adult in the room. Klobuchar truly chooses the right moments to play the adult especially when Michael Bloomberg and Andrew Gillum started arguing about their records. Klobuchar stated, "Bloomberg and Gillum may need to talk about their record and build their records up but unlike them, my record speaks for herself. I don't need to yell across the room to win a vote, I just need them to read my record." Klobuchar also was in an argument with Representative Tim Ryan who started by attacking Klobuchar by saying, "Amy, I am amazed by your record but I don't think the American people don't just want a record, they want someone who will stand up for them. I am that candidate, I don't just have the record but I have the policy chops and I have the blue-collar background to win back the blue wall that fell in 2016." Klobuchar responded by stating, "Mr. Ryan, I don't just have a record, I grew up in the midwest in the blue-collar neighbors in Minnesota and every single day since I have been a public servant. Truly, Mr. Ryan, I don't think you should be talking about not winning Americans when you are polling less than almost the entire field."

Klobuchar wasn't the only one that was able to impress Americans with her debate performance, Senator Kristen Gillibrand, a colleague of Klobuchar, had a stunning performance. Gillibrand played on the me too movement and the year of the women. Gillibrand in her starting statement, stated, "America, in 2018 we elected more women than ever in history and since 2016 we have exposed powerful men sexually abusing women. I am so proud of my country and my party as we stand proudly stood with the year of the women and the me-too movement. Now, our country is finnally ready for a female president, I can feel it and women across this country feel it and I believe I am that candidate to lead this country."
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« Reply #34 on: February 09, 2019, 04:37:32 pm »

Senate Contest Across the Country Heat Up
June 7th, 2018

CNN- The Republican majority in the Senate could very possibly fall in 2020 and both parties are receiving high profile candidates to flip or retain the Senate. Since the blue-wave, Democrats are eyeing higher office and have started to launch bids. Some states that have been strong Republican states in the past have had strong recuirts join the race like South Carolina.

In South Carolina, the strongest candidate that has received national endorsements is former DNC chairmen candidate and former Chair of the South Carolina Democratic party Jamie Harrison. Harrison launched his campaign just a week ago after launching an exploratory committee early in the year and has been endorsed by 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg. Harrison will be running against Lindsey Graham who has a strong base but many independents have a bad taste in their months from them after the Kavanaugh confirmation.

In Arizona, the Democrats have a competitive primary between two high profile candidates. Senator Chuck Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Commitee has backed Congressmen Ruben Gallego while Mom's Demand Action and other high profile gun groups have backed Mark Kelly, the husband to former Congresswomen Gabby Giffords who was shot while meeting constituents. Kelly and Gallego are both high profile candidates and both will poise a hard challenge to Senator Martha McSally who lost two years for Senate against current Senator Krysten Sinema and then was appointed to the seat that Jon Kyl was retiring.

In one of the most competitive states this year, Colorado, candidates are lining up to take on sitting Senator Cory Gardner who defeated Mark Udall in 2014. The highest profile candidate in the race is Andrew Romanoff who is the former Speaker of the Colorado house but Romanoff has yet been able to prove that he can win a race statewide or even win in a primary. Mike Johnston is a former State Senator who is also running but many who want a high profile challenge are hoping that Former Governor John Hickenlooper suspends his presidential campaign to run against Gardner. Chuck Schumer has met with Hickenlooper but he has also met with two other possible candidates, Cary Kennedy and Joe Salazer who both have run statewide and Kennedy was a successful candidate.

Not only have Democrats started looking into highly competitive elections but in Tennesee and Alabama, Republicans are eyeing higher office. Most high profile Republicans have yet made the jump though, unlike their Democrat counterparts and Senator Mitch McConnel has started urging some high profile candidates to launch their bids.

The most likely seat to flip to the GOP in Alabama where a scandal-plagued candidate gave Democrats an upset in one of the most conservative states in America. McConnel has met with two of the high profile challengers, Congressmembers Gary Palmer, and Martha Roby. Roby and Palmer have both started to gather together a campaign organization and hire staff but have yet to officially announce their intentions for a run. Both Roby and Palmer aren't the only ones looking to win the Senate seat currently held by Senator Doug Jones who has lost a significant amount of favorability since the Kavanaugh confirmation and made reelection even harder for the first-term senator. Other high profile candidates include Governor Kay Ivey and Congressmen Mo Brooks.

In Tennesee, the moderate senator, Lamar Alexander is retiring and the field for his replacement is wide open. The frontrunners that are still on the sidelines include Former Governor Bill Haslam who is also a moderate Republican and had a troubled past with the current President, Congressmen Mark Green who has already generated consverty in his first few days on the capital hill, Former Congresswomen Diane Black who lost in a four-way primary for governor last year and Beth Harwell who was in fourth place in the four-way contest behind Black in the primary. The Democrats aren't putting nearly as much effort in this state as they did in 2018 but they are still preparing candidates to run including high profile candidates like the former nominee in 2018 Karl Dean and Mayor Andy Berke. The only current candidate in the race is a veteran, James Mackler who made a spirited campaign for Senate in 2018 but lost against Phil Bredesen in the primary by a landslide.

Homestate Democrats Line Up Behind Home State Candidate
June 12th, 2019

ABC- 2020 candidates have been receiving support from their home-state Democrats. Since the last Debate, multiple high profile politicians in their home states. A few months ago after launching her bid, Senator Amy Klobuchar received the endorsement of the Minnesota DFL which is the state Democratic party organization. After a star debate performance, Klobuchar received the endorsement of Governor Tim Walz and Senator Tina Smith who have both pledged their support to Klobuchar and will help her win over Iowa.

New Jersey home state Senator, Cory Booker, was able to win over support of his states Senior Senator, Bob Menedez, and the first term Governor, Phil Murphy. Murphy and Menedez endorsed Booker soon after he announced his bid. Both of those candidates received support by Booker in their elections especially Menedez who was covered in scandal during 2018 midterms and had a close election race with Bob Huggins.

Senator Elizabeth Warren got the highest profile endorsements so far out of her state. Warren was endorsed by Senator Ed Markley, who could be facing a primary, and she received the endorsement of Congressmen Joe Kennedy III and former Governor Deval Patrick who was thought to be running for president. Kennedy III was holding out his endorsement since he is good friends with other candidates especially Beto O'Rourke. Warren did get some smaller, less high profile endorsements too including Jay Gonzalez who lost in a landslide to Governor Charlie Baker in 2018.

Other, not so high profile candidates, also received endorsements from their home state Democrats. Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard who was thought to be the clear 'winner' of the debate the last week received the endorsement Senator Brian Schatz but has yet been endorsed by the senior senator, Mazie Hirono who Gabbard attacked before announcing her bid for president and has not been endorsed by the Governor who Gabbard didn't endorse in the primary and endorsed his opponent in the primary.

The only candidate to have his home state senator to endorse an opponent. State Senator Richard Ojeda's senator, Joe Manchin, endorsed Congressmen Tim Ryan.

Weld Launches Attacks On Donald Trump, Calls For Debate
June 13th, 2019

AP- Former Governor Bill Weld has launched his first attacks on President Trump after months of building up his organization in New Hampshire and across the country. In a speech in Manchester, New Hampshire while receiving the endorsement of Massachusetts Lt. Governor Karyn Polito, Weld attacked the President by saying, "President Trump is a nassastit billionaire that believes everything should be given to him. Trump is not fit to lead this nation and the past three years have made that crystal clear. Trump cannot unite this nation, he cannot pass important policy changes."

After launching the attacks on Trump and receiving the endorsement of Polito, Weld called for a debate between the three major candidates. In his statement that he realised to the press after calling for the debate stated, "Governor Weld believes a debate is necessary to give Republicans and Americans and clear view of what the candidates stand for." Ann Coulter has announced she will debate Weld and would debate Trump who she stated, "is incompetent and needs to be put in check."

It is unclear how open President Trump is to debating his primary challengers since that may give them credibility and help spread their message. At this point, Trump has nowhere to go but down and giving extra speaking time to Weld and Coulter.

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 13.2% (+0.1)
Joe Biden: 12.2% (-0.9 )
Beto O'Rourke: 9.2% (-0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.5% (+0.5)
Kamala Harris: 6.3% (-1.3)
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.6% (+0.8 )
Elizabeth Warren: 5.5% (-0.2)
Andrew Gillum: 4.4% (+0.5)
Cory Booker: 4.2% (+0.0)
Sherrod Brown: 3.2% (-0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.1% (+1.0)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.1% (+0.5)
Michael Bennet: 2.0% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.9% (-0.5)
John Delaney: 1.7% (+0.5)
Julian Castro: 1.6% (+0.2)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (+0.6)
John Hickenlooper: 1.0%(+0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.9% (-0.6)
Richard Ojeda: 0.6% (+0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.5 (+0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.5% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 0.4% (-0.1)
Jeff Merkley: 0.3% (-0.3)
Andrew Yang: 0.3% (+0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (-0.2)
Undecided: 17.2% (+0.1)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 16.5% (-2.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 13.8% (+1.7)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.1% (+0.3 )
Sherrod Brown: 9.0% (+0.1)
Bernie Sanders: 7.5% (-0.7)
Tulsi Gabbard: 4.7% (+1.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 4.6% (-0.6)
John Delaney: 4.3% (+0.5)
Tim Ryan: 2.6% (-0.3)
Kamala Harris: 2.5% (-1.2)
Cory Booker: 2.2% (-0.4)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.8% (+0.3)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.7 (+0.9)
Michael Bennet: 1.6% (+0.1 )
Andrew Gillum: 1.5% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.5% (+0.4)
John Hickenlooper: 1.3% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 1.2% (+0.6)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.7% (-0.3)
Andrew Yang: 0.6% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 0.5% (-0.2)
Jeff Merkely: 0.5% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 0.2% (+0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (-0.1)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 9.0% (+0.1)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 15.9% (-0.2)
Bernie Sanders: 15.5% (-0.3)
Kristen Gillibrand: 9.6% (+1.1)
John Hickenlooper: 6.8% (+0.6)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.6% (-0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 5.2% (-0.3)
Joe Biden: 5.1% (-0.8 )
Michael Bennet: 5.0% (+0.2)
Seth Moulton: 4.1% (+0.1)
Bill De Blasio: 2.8% (+0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.7% (+0.7)
Kamala Harris: 2.6% (-1.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 1.7% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 1.5% (+0.3)
Cory Booker: 1.4% (-0.5)
Jay Inslee: 1.1% (+0.2)
John Delaney: 1.0% (+0.5)
Tim Ryan: 0.9% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.8% (+0.0)
Andrew Gillum: 0.8% (+0.2)
Sherrod Brown: 0.7% (-0.1)
Terry McAuliffe: 0.4% (+0.4)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.1% (+0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (-0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 12.8% (-1.2)
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« Reply #35 on: February 09, 2019, 08:34:53 pm »

Bullock, Sanberg, Biden round out Democratic Field
August 3rd, 2019

MSNBC- With the primary season inching closer, the final Democratic candidates jump in the race while the current candidates all are building orginzations needed to win the primary. Former Vice-President Joe Biden launched his campaign in late July while Former Governor Steve Bullock and Poverty Activist Joe Sanberg both joined the race over the weekend. These three will most likely be the last entries into the largest field of candidates for president ever. Already, there were over twenty-six candidates and with Sanberg, Biden and Bullock in the race, there are twenty-nine candidates which is twelve more candidates than the Republican field in 2016.

Biden was the frontrunner or thought to be the frontrunner slowly has fallen behind other already annouced candidates. Biden did struggle and his polling took a hit after skipping the first debate as he waited to annouce his bid. Biden still is in the frontrunners but has much less strong orginzation than Bernie Sanders and Beto O'Rourke who both annouced months ago and were on the first debate stage.

Bullock is a red-state Democrat and could help win some Republicans and Independents to help put him ahead of his fellow Democrats who almost all are playing for the progressive and Liberal vote. Bullock has opperations in Iowa but has yet expanded and hired anyone in New Hampshire which is a curcial early state. Bullock could be a strong candidate but he will be competing in Iowa against other pragatism candidate like John Delaney and Michael Bennet who already have opperations step up.

Sanberg is the least known of the three new candidates but he does have a large internet following and has a prime message: elimnating poverty. Sanberg has traveled the country on this message and has a similar tone to his campaign as John Edwards in 2008. Sanberg could face low poll numbers as other anti-estblishment, outsiders candidates have this cycle inculding Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson.

Sen. Romney Endorses Weld; Former Rep. Chaffetz and Grimm Endorses Coulter
August 7th, 2019

The Union Leader- President Trump's challengers are getting more and more serious and have started to become a thorn on his side and the side of his reelection bid. The Republican National Commitee have been trying to prevent a serious primary challenge but President Trump's reelection bid now has two serious primary challenge and they are gaining mometum and endorsement.

Ann Coulter has been running to the president's right and has continually attacked the president as 'incompetent' and blamed the President for the large losses in the midterms. Coulter has now recieved her first endorsment by two former congressmembers. Former Congressmen and Former Criminal Michael Grimm from New York and Former Congressmen Jason Chafftez from Utah annouced their endorsments for Coulter in a Fundraiser in Washington DC and plan to hold a rally with Coulter in Iowa and New Hampshire later this month. Coulter has been raising his support in Iowa but has had a harsh response from New Hampshire where she is still polling below ten percent.

On the other hand, Former Governor Bill Weld has had a good response in New Hampshire but has not had the response he wished for in Iowa. Weld contitues to grow his orginzation and momutum in New Hampshire. Today in a rally outside one of his New Hampshire field office, Weld was endorsed by Senator Mitt Romney. Romney endorsments follows other endorsers of Weld inculding Justin Amash, Rand Paul and Gary Johnson.

Both Weld and Coulter have created a fierce challenge to President Trump and have pushed to get a debate between the three main contenders before Iowa and New Hampshire.

Alabama Senate Race Heats Up
August 11th, 2019

National Journal- Since Doug Jones won an upset election against scandal-plagued Roy Moore in deep-red Alabama, high profile Republicans across the state looked to run for president. Three Represenatives have launched bids for senate which will be one of the most watched races come election day. Mo Brooks, Gary Palmer and Martha Roby have all launched campaigns meaning half of all new Congressmen from Alabama will be freshmen.

Palmer and Brooks both are two of the most conservative members of congress and will each be running to the others right. Brooks has gained the endorsment of conservative outsiders inculding presidential hopeful Ann Coulter which could hurt him and he was endorsed by Cory Lewidawski. Palmer on the other hand has gained endorsments from conservative orginzation inculding Students for Trump. Roby does have an advantage of being a women as the party looks to add more femine voices to the party. Roby has earned the endorsment of Senator McConnel who could hurt her but she has also earned the endorsment of Congresswomen Elise Stefinek who is raising funds for Republican women across the country.

The latest poll shows that Roby, Palmer and Brooks are almost tied with Brooks leading the field. This may be because Brooks has already lead a statewide campaign which he lost to Moore in the primary.

National Journal Poll of Alabama Republican Senate Primary
Sample Size: 946
Kay Ivey: 24%
Mo Brooks: 19%
Martha Roby: 17%
Gary Palmer: 13%
Roy Moore: 12%
Bradley Bryne: 7%
Rick Pate: 3%
Will Ainsworth: 2%
Undecided: 3%

Big Name Candidates Jump in Libertarian Contest
August 27th, 2019

Reason- Two former Congressmen have now joined the Libertarian race for president and mutiple other higher profile Libertarians have annouced their runs. Congressmen Joe Walsh who served two years as a congressmen from Illinios as a Republican and Congressmen Tom Cambell served six years in Califronia as a Republican but endorsed Gary Johnson in 2016. Both Cambell and Walsh have annouced that they would be aiming to win the 2020 Libertarian nomination. Walsh and Cambell are the highest profile candidate in the race since Bill Weld decided to run the Republican nomination instead.

Cambell and Walsh won't be alone in the race with two other candidates joining the race that have large followings within the Libertarian party. Larry Sharpe who ran for Vice-President in 2018 but lost to Weld in the convection has annouced he won't sit on the sideline in the end and will run for the president. Sharpe was joined by Sam Sedar who launched his exploratory commitee months ago and now is officially in the race for president.

The latest polls show the race for the Libertarian nomination is close and could be come much closer if anouther high profile Libertarian joins the race like Justin Amash. Amash has said he will not run for the nomination unless Weld doesn't prove succesful in his primary bid against President Trump.

Libertarian Future National Poll of Libertarians
Sample Size: 413
Larry Sharpe: 23%
Joe Walsh: 17%
John McAfee: 12%
Peter Schiff: 10%
Tom Cambell: 9%
Adam Kokesh: 6%
Patrick Bryne: 5%
Sam Sedar: 5%
Arvin Vohar: 2%
Undecided/Other: 11%
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« Reply #36 on: February 10, 2019, 02:30:32 pm »

The Year of The Women 2.0?
September 15th, 2019

Business Insider- In 2018, hundreds of women across the country were elected on a blue wave as they took out mostly white, male incumbents. Now, women across on both sides of the aisle are again hoping to have a women wave. Nothing shows this clearer than the presidential race where seven women have their eyes on the white house, six from the Democratic party and one from the Republican party. This is more women running for president than ever before.

The problem with these women running is the split women's vote which used to propel women candidates in the primary like Hillary Clinton in 2008. The women's vote help keep Clinton in the race and helped her flip some close states like New Hampshire to her. Still, the gender of these women are showing as a clear benefit to their campaigns as the Democratic party is looking and wanting more diversity at the top of the ticket. Truly, the message going to come out of these primaries is that the Democrats truly don't want another old white man to compete against another old white man.

Not only is the presidential race getting more women than ever running but congressional, senate and gubertarional elections also have a surge of women candidates. In the Democratic primary, some of the most competitive Senate races have attracted women candidates like Colorado. Two women have already jumped into this race, one is a biomedical scientist and the other is a community organizer. Trish Zornio and Lorena Garcia are both pollings in low single digits but could pull off a successful primary if they keep up the energy within their campaigns. Cary Kennedy is the former Colorado Treasure and former candidate for governor in 2018 who most Democratic insider would like to see as the nominee if it would be a woman but both Zornio and Garcia both hope Kennedy doesn't enter the race so she doesn't slipt the women's vote.

Not only have Democrats started to build up a new women's wave in 2020 but Republicans have also started to help. In 2018, the Republicans were very much lacking in the women's wave and many women that ran lost in the primary like State Representative Christina Hagen in the 16th Ohio District who lost to Anthony Gonzalez who now represents the district. The Republicans were only able to elect one new freshmen women and still, the women in the Republican ranks fell because some women within the party lost like Congresswomen Barbara Comstock who lost to Jennifer Westock. In 2020, Republicans do not want that to happen again. Congresswomen Elise Stefanik has launched an effort to get women elected across the country and Congresswomen Liz Cheney has become an outspoken supporter of getting Republican women elected. Congresswomen Susan Brooks was elected to be recruitment chair to get more women elected or running also.

The effort has proved successful to get women running like in Alabama where Congresswomen Martha Roby is running to defeat Doug Jones for Senate. In Iowa, a Republican woman is looking to flip a lean red seat back. State Representative Ashley Hinson has said she will run and is trying to flip the seat currently held by Abby Finkenauer who is a freshmen Democrat. Hinson and Roby aren't alone but the question now for Republicans isn't whether they can run women, it is if women can survive a primary and win the general election.

Abuse Stories Come Out About Amy Klobuchar
September 20th, 2019

Sioux City Journal- Senator Amy Klobuchar has built up operations around Iowa and has been surging since June when she 'won' the first presidential debate but that may all start to crumble to the ground has horror stories have started to come out of her presidential campaign. Klobuchar has built up a nice-midwestern personality but some are saying that is far from what they saw in her Washington office.

When she launched her campaign, Klobuchar had a very troubled time hiring someone to run her campaign but now a report from Politico has made very clear why. Klobuchar is far from the nice midwestern senator she has made herself out to be according to multiple staff. A former staffer who wishes to be unknown was left in tears multiple times by her former boss and said she wasn't the only one. She said almost all the staff have faced Klobuchar when she was in one of her rants and has been close to tears or crying by the end of the day. The former staffer said, "I joined politics to make a change, I didn't know I would be left in tears every day." These words are similar to what other staffers have said about working with Klobuchar and pointed to that as one of the reasons so many staff leaves her office.

In her first two Senate bids, multiple big national unions wouldn't endorse her bids which were uncommon for them. One of the big unions even asked local unions either to not endorse Klobuchar or withdraw their endorsement because of her past abuse of her staff. If these unions don't endorse Klobuchar in the general election, she may be very badly hurt since the midwest is a heavy union area especially Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania which are crucial in her bid to defeat Trump.

Congressmen Tim Ryan Goes After Klobuchar
September 23rd, 2019

CNBC- Senator Amy Klobuchar has had a rough week on the campaign trail. To start she had Politico report about her abuse of her staff and how tough it was to find a campaign manager and yesterday, multiple union members heckled Klobuchar at an event and called for her to drop out of the race because of the abuse of her staff. Now her opponents are smelling blood and going after Klobuchar for the new scandal.

Congressmen Tim Ryan in a rally outside Iowa City said, "I aim for excellence among my staff, I believe every boss should because if you should do work then why don't you make it your best work. What I don't aim to do is yell and abuse my staff. That is innaporate behavior of any boss or individual. A workplace should be a safe place to get your work done. Amy Klobuchar and her abusive attitude have no place in Washington and no place in America." After leaving his rally, Ryan talked with press and boasted about his low staff turnover rate which is the lowest in the state of Ohio.

It is not known what these attacks will do to Klobuchar but it is more negative headlines and more press for her opponents that are close on Klobuchar's tail in Iowa. The only thing we truly know is that Klobuchar's momentum that had helped her surge after the debate has all but disappeared.

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 12.9% (-0.3)
Joe Biden: 12.4% (+0.2 )
Beto O'Rourke: 10.0% (+0.8 )
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.1% (+0.5 )
Kamala Harris: 5.9% (-0.4)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9% (+0.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 5.4% (-1.1)
Cory Booker: 4.7% (+0.5)
Andrew Gillum: 4.6% (+0.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.7% (+0.6)
Sherrod Brown: 3.3% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.9% (+0.0)
Julian Castro: 1.9% (+0.3)
Michael Bennet: 1.8% (-0.2)
Tim Ryan: 1.7% (+0.4)
John Delaney: 1.5% (-0.2)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.4% (-0.7)
John Hickenlooper: 0.8%(-0.2)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.6% (-0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.6% (+0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 0.5% (-0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.5 (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.4% (+0.1)
Steve Bullock: 0.3% (+0.3)
Seth Moulton: 0.2% (-0.2)
Eric Swalwell: 0.2% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 0.1% (-0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 16.4% (-0.8 )

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 16.5% (+0.0)
Amy Klobuchar: 11.2% (-2.6)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.6% (+0.5)
Sherrod Brown: 9.7% (+0.7)
Bernie Sanders: 7.3% (-0.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.6% (+0.9)
Elizabeth Warren: 4.7% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 4.1% (-0.2)
Tim Ryan: 3.5% (+0.9)
Cory Booker: 2.3% (+0.1)
Kamala Harris: 2.2% (-0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.0% (+0.2)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.8% (+0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 1.7% (+0.5)
Steve Bullock: 1.6% (+1.6)
Julian Castro: 1.5% (+0.0)
Andrew Gillum: 1.3% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.2% (-0.4)
John Hickenlooper: 1.1% (-0.2)
Andrew Yang: 0.7% (+0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.5% (-0.2)
Joe Sanberg: 0.5% (+0.5)
Bill De Blasio: 0.5% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkely: 0.3% (-0.2)
Seth Moulton: 0.2% (-0.3)
Marianna Williamson: 0.1% (+0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.0% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 8.1% (-0.9)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 15.6% (-0.3)
Bernie Sanders: 15.0% (-0.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 10.4% (+0.8 )
John Hickenlooper: 7.0% (+0.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.7% (+0.1)
Michael Bennet: 5.4% (+0.4)
Joe Biden: 5.3% (+0.2)
Michael Bloomberg: 4.7% (-0.5)
Seth Moulton: 4.2% (+0.1)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.1% (+0.4)
Bill De Blasio: 3.0% (+0.2)
Kamala Harris: 1.9% (-0.7)
Cory Booker: 1.6% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 1.3% (-0.2)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (+0.4)
Steve Bullock: 1.1% (+1.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.0% (-0.1)
Terry McAuliffe: 1.0% (+0.6)
John Delaney: 0.9% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.7% (-0.1)
Andrew Gillum: 0.7% (-0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 0.7% (-1.0)
Sherrod Brown: 0.5% (-0.2)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.3% (+0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.2% (+0.2)
Joe Sanberg: 0.1% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 11.4% (-1.4)
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« Reply #37 on: February 10, 2019, 08:16:45 pm »

That Makes Thirty: Abrams Joins Field
October 19th, 2019

CNN- With the final months before the primary season is truly underway, the final candidate joins the already crowded field with a message of progress and equality. Three of the Democratic stars of 2018 are now in the race with the latest entry of former State Representative Stacey Abrams. Abrams launched her bid outside of Charleston, South Carolina where four years earlier a hate-crime happened at a majority African-American church. Abrams pointed to that hate crime as one of the many reasons that African-Americans are still not treated fairly and made sure to point out that Black Lives Matter. This equality and progressive message could help win South Carolina for Stacey Abrams which will be key to Abrams or any African-American candidates victory for the nomination. The south has most primaries with majority African-American voters which is why Barack Obama did so well in 2008 and propelled him to the nomination.

Abrams was the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia in 2018 and lost by less than two percent but wouldn't concede to a week later after it was clear there would be no recall. After the election, Abrams continued to grow her name-recognition and was thinking about running for president or Senate in Georgia/ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was pushing for Abrams to run for Senate so it would become a competitive seat or even a flip seat in 2020.

Abrams has given the State of the Union Response which had an overall good response except for some jokes about the people looking like they were green screen. This response gave her name recognition for the bid for president which any candidate needs to stand out.

Buttigieg Attacks Gabbard; Messam Endorses Gillum
October 29th, 2019

Bloomberg News- The first caucus just under two months away candidates are starting to launch attacks on other campaigns. This is the tactic that Mayor Pete Buttigieg is using to take down the rising star of Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard who has risen through the last few months into a decent place going into the last few months of campaigning in Iowa. Buttigieg, the first openly gay presidential candidate, attacked Gabbard for her past anti-LGBT views and is running flyers with the Human Rights Campaign around college communities about Gabbard past views.

College students will be a prime base of voters for both Gabbard and Buttigieg who are both in their late thirties and both would be the youngest president and first millennial president ever. Buttigieg has aggressively targeted these college communities with these fliers since LGBT rights are so important to youth and this will try to crack into Gabbard's momentum that has lifted her through the ranks in the past weeks.

Not only are candidates trying to pull punches on other candidates but they are also in a battle for endorsements in the crowded field. Any endorsement could help a candidate win especially if they have a strong appeal to a voting base like Mayor Wayne Messam who once was considering a bid for president. Now, Messam is endorsing Andrew Gillum for president and is hoping to win over African-American voters to the campaign. The African-American vote is crucial to Gillum's campaign especially in winning over South Carolina which Gillum hopes will be his first win but the vote is split between multiple other candidates including the latest member to the field, Stacey Abrams. Abrams leaves right next door to both Flordia and South Carolina and could hurt Gillum's base of support but all that truly matters to these campaigns is the final days before the primary and organization is everything. Gillum has a large organization compared to Abrams but nothing trumps the huge organization of Kamala Harris.

Schultz Annouces Presidential Campaign
November 12th, 2019

The Atlantic- The long-awaited Independent bid by former CEO of Starbucks, Howard Schultz, is now official and is off the ground. Schultz was originally thought to be running for the Democratic nomination but seeing no path for a centrist candidate, Schultz abonded a primary bid and started to explore an independent bid back in January and February. His potential bid got negative feedback from many Democratic activists who said Schultz will cost Democrats the White House in 2020 but many centrist liked the idea of a serious independent candidate like another Ross Perot. Some activist has drawn parallels between Schultz and President Trump in a bid to hurt Schultz credibility but polls show that Schultz has been relatively close to ten percent throughout his exploratory phase of the campaign.

Schultz has already gotten big names on his campaign who have managed campaigns in the past which many independent bids lack. These names include Steve Schmidt who was the campaign manager of John McCain in 2008 and has gotten Jeff Weaver who has served in multiple roles throughout Jon Huntsman, John Kasich and John McCain's bids for the presidency. He has also amassed a large PR team including Cheryl Cook which could help with all the attacks aimed at him in the early days of his campaign.

Gallup National Presidential Poll from November 13th to 19th
Sample Size: 1,938
Donald Trump: 41.6%
Generic Democrat: 40.3%
Howard Schultz: 11.5%
Undecided: 6.6%
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« Reply #38 on: February 11, 2019, 07:16:38 am »

I don't think most centrists like Howard Schultz
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« Reply #39 on: February 11, 2019, 12:59:10 pm »

I don't think most centrists like Howard Schultz
Probably not but they do want an independent candidate
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« Reply #40 on: February 11, 2019, 05:50:00 pm »

An All Billionaire Election
December 2nd, 2019

Business Insider- Will 2020 be the Democrats worst nightmare? An all billionaire election. This could very well be possible and already two of the three major candidates most likely will be billionaires. With Howard Schultz launch of his presidential campaign, many Democratic activists in private have started to ask Michael Bloomberg, the former Mayor of New York City, to step aside and accept a cabinet position instead of the president to prevent an all billionaire election. Some in the Democratic party fear that nominating Bloomberg will cause Bernie Sander, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard supporters to just not show up as they did in 2016. Even worse, those supporters may support the green party which is one of the last things the Democratic party wants to happen in 2020.

Still, if Democrats don't nominate a billionaire then they may be left in the dust in spending with Schultz and President much more willing to open their pockets to win some votes. If Democrats do nominate someone that isn't as rich as the other two major candidates, the nominee will have to put much more effort into fundraising than needed.

So, this may end up being a double-edged sword for Democrats. On one end, the Democrats don't need to worry about fundraising if they nominate a billionaire but risk losing activist support. On the other hand, if Democrats do not nominate a billionaire then candidates may need to spend more time fundraising or sending surrogates to fundraise then spend time reaching out to voters.

Joe Biden DeservesYour Vote: Union Leader Democratic Endorsment
December 5th, 2019

New Hampshire Union Leader- Vice President Joe Biden is not only the most electable candidate in the race and most qualified candidate but he is the most likable of all thirty candidates. Biden deserves New Hampshire primary votes and has earned the New Hampshire Union Leader Endorsement.

Biden has constantly been called a frontrunner in the race but since the first debate, Biden has slowly fallen nationwide but has had a fast slump in the New Hampshire race where he now is in fifth and sixth place behind much less known candidates like John Hickenlooper and Michael Bloomberg who have started to master the retail politics. Biden has also mastered retail politics but with the large press following him, he has been unable to show off his skill. That truly is a tragedy to the New Hampshire voter but the Union Leader endorsement board was clearly able to see Biden's ability to retail campaign.

Not only is Biden one of the masters at retail politics but when you sit down and know about him, we found that Biden is the most likable candidate in the race which will help him defeat President Trump in the general election. Electability and Likability go together, hand and hand and both are needed to take down the sitting president.

Biden is by far the best candidate in the race and deserves the support of New Hampshire as he eyes the nomination.

Moulton Earns Endorsment From Veteran
December 9th, 2019

Boston Globe- Congressmen Seth Moulton has made a goal since he has gotten in Congress to elect more veterans like him. Moulton has even created an organization to benefit veteran candidates and pushed many candidates to run in 2018. Moulton's support for veterans across the country in 2018 has started to pay off as he earned the endorsements of veterans.

A group of five veterans has issued a letter endorsing Moulton for president. Two of the five are freshmen Democratic congresswomen who were urged to join the race by Moulton, two others were candidates in 2018 that didn't prevail but also benefitted from backing from Moulton. The last endorser is General William H. McRaven who was one of the leaders of the mission to kill Bin Laden and gained fame when he issued an opinion piece to the Washington Post calling out President Trump's transgender ban.

The endorsers other than McRaven were Congresswoman Mikkie Sherrel (D-NJ), Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D-VA), Ken Harbaugh (D-OH) and Amy McGrath (D-KY). McGrath is one of the most important endorsements on the list since, in 2018, McGrath received the backing of Joe Biden and multiple other candidates but she, in the end, choose Moulton. All these are important endorsements for Moulton who have been lagging behind other more high profile candidates such as Kamala Harris, Biden, and Elizabeth Warren.

Senator Warren Attacks De Blasio
December 12th, 2019

The New Yorker- In one of the latest attacks in the heated Democratic primary, Senator Elizabeth Warren went after Mayor Bill De Blasio in a town hall in New Hampshire over the Amazon deal in New York City. Warren has stuck very much to her policy until yesterday when she went after De Blasio which is very unusual since Warren is the frontrunner and no polls show De Blasio causing her any risk of winning New Hampshire.

Still, Warren in her townhall was asked about the Amazon deal where the billion dollars got tax-payer subsidies to move to the city. In her response, Warren stated, "It is great that Amazon wants to create jobs in a great city but they shouldn't have needed funding to bring jobs to the city. For crying out loud, they are probably worth more than half the cities population combined. It is just sicking to know that a company that frowns upon unions, gives their employees little benefits will be getting billions in subsidies just to create some jobs. Truly, shame on Bill De Blasio or whoever for giving these subsidies to them. Truly, if De Blasio gave away one penny of subsidies to Amazon so they would move to New York City then he should drop out of this race because I don't see the room in the Democratic party for a corporation loving Democrat."

This is the first hostel attacks against another candidate for Warren and may be signaling a more aggressive Warren in the future. This could benefit the campaign with an energized candidate but it could also hurt as the campaigns turn more negative.

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Joe Biden: 12.8% (+0.4 )
Bernie Sanders: 12.7% (-0.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.2% (+0.2 )
Kamala Harris: 6.2% (+0.3)
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.1% (+0.0)
Elizabeth Warren: 6.0% (+0.1)
Cory Booker: 5.3% (+0.6)
Amy Klobuchar: 5.1% (-0.3)
Andrew Gillum: 3.7% (-0.9)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.6% (-0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 3.5% (+0.2)
Stacey Abrams: 2.4% (+2.4)
Julian Castro: 2.0% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 1.8% (+0.3)
Tim Ryan: 1.7% (+0.0)
Michael Bennet: 1.5% (-0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.5% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.4% (-0.5)
John Hickenlooper: 0.8%(+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.7% (+0.2)
Seth Moulton: 0.5% (+0.3)
Terry McAullife: 0.4 (-0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.3% (-0.3)
Eric Swalwell: 0.3% (+0.1)
Andrew Yang: 0.2% (-0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 0.2% (-0.4)
Steve Bullock: 0.1% (-0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 0.1% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.1% (+0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 12.7% (-3.7)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 16.0% (-0.5)
Amy Klobuchar: 11.3% (+0.1)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.4% (-0.2)
Sherrod Brown: 10.2% (+0.5)
Bernie Sanders: 6.7% (-0.6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.0% (+0.4)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.2% (+0.5)
John Delaney: 4.6% (+0.5)
Tim Ryan: 3.8% (+0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.9% (+0.9)
Kamala Harris: 2.6% (+0.4)
Richard Ojeda: 2.1% (+0.4)
Cory Booker: 1.9% (-0.4)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.8% (-0.2)
Stacey Abrams: 1.5% (+1.5)
Julian Castro: 1.4% (-0.1)
Steve Bullock: 1.4% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.1% (-0.1)
Andrew Gillum: 1.0% (-0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 0.8% (-0.3)
Andrew Yang: 0.5% (-0.2)
Joe Sanberg: 0.5% (+0.0)
Marianna Williamson: 0.4% (+0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.3% (-0.2)
Jeff Merkely: 0.3% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 0.3% (+0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.2% (-0.3)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 5.7% (-2.4)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 16.1% (+0.5)
Bernie Sanders: 14.1% (-0.9)
Kristen Gillibrand: 11.3% (+0.9)
Joe Biden: 6.6% (+1.3)
John Hickenlooper: 6.4% (-0.6)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.5% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 5.4% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 5.1% (+0.9)
Michael Bloomberg: 4.4% (-0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.9% (-0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 2.3% (-0.7)
Kamala Harris: 2.1% (+0.2)
Cory Booker: 1.5% (-0.1)
Terry McAuliffe: 1.4% (+0.4)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (+0.0)
Steve Bullock: 1.2% (+0.1)
Stacey Abrams: 1.1% (+1.1)
Jeff Merkley: 1.0% (-0.3)
Jay Inslee: 1.0% (+0.0)
Sherrod Brown: 1.0% (+0.5)
John Delaney: 0.9% (+0.0)
Amy Klobuchar: 0.9% (+0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.8% (+0.6)
Andrew Gillum: 0.6% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.5% (-0.2)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.3% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.0% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 8.4% (-3.0)
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« Reply #41 on: February 12, 2019, 06:31:16 pm »
« Edited: February 13, 2019, 04:56:55 pm by terp40hitch »

The Slow Rise of John Delaney and John Hickenlooper
December 15th, 2019

FiveThirtyEight- Congressmen John Delaney and Governor John Hickenlooper have followed the path of John Kasich in 2016 and Rick Santorum in 2012 of retail politics. Hickenlooper and Delaney have both slowly rose in New Hampshire and/or Iowa from the one percent area to midtier. Their rise in those states has not faced many bumps like Tulsi Gabbard's rise has in Iowa. Both candidates have perched unity in this time of division which has resented with voters across the political spectrum and their low profile has helped from being thrown into attacks that could harm their unity message.

Like Kasich in 2016 and Santorum in 2012, Hickenlooper and Delaney have started to master the craft of retail politics which win over voters in the early primary and caucus states. Hickenlooper has held over fifty townhalls in New Hampshire and ten in Iowa while Delaney has held over one hundred events across Iowa and has visited all ninety-nine counties twice. By the end of the campaign, Delaney might have met every single person in Iowa which was his goal when he launched this bid over two years ago.

Both Delaney and Hickenlooper are patiently waiting to see if their hard work has pulled off with a last piece of momentum as Kasich got before his strong second place finish in New Hampshire in 2016. Still, both Delaney and Hickenlooper could also be compared to Jeb Bush who compared his campaign to a slow turtle and the turtle always wins the race, right? Not for Bush and the slow rise of Hickenlooper and Delaney might not be going fast enough for the turtle to win in 2020.

Joementum; Joe Biden Surges and Earns New Endorsments
December 21st, 2019

CNN- The former Vice-President has started to turn around his campaign that had a rough start early in the year. Joe Biden's 2020 campaign was starting to be compared to Jeb Bush's lackluster bid in 2016 that got him a total of three delegates. Now, Biden has the momentum in his corner after an enthusiastic endorsement by the New Hampshire Union Leader and it shows on the campaign trail. The candidate now is more excited and the crowds are getting bigger as the final month before the first caucus comes.

Biden has now surged back into the lead nationally and has stood his ground in Iowa while having a quick comeback from the mid-tier in New Hampshire. The fundraising is also looking good for the campaign according to a top campaign staffer who said the campaign raised over two million dollars since the endorsement.

The good news didn't end there for the former Vice-President, he has also gotten endorsements from across the nation including Representative Dave Loebsack of Iowa which could help him win over support in the crucial state. Biden's list of endorsements also includes Mayor of Chicago Rahm Emanuel, Former Governor of Ohio Ted Strickland, Representative Conor Lamb, Senator from Deleware Chris Coons and Representative Stephanie Murphy.

These endorsements just continue to prove how much momentum has started to come for Biden who has lacked endorsements, strong fundraising and other needed things for a campaign including air time.

Michael Bloomberg Needs 10% to Survive Past New Hampshire
December 26th, 2019

CNBC- Former Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg has had a faulty bid for president and his bids have fallen from the headlines. When Howard Schultz joined the race, Bloomberg lost much of his support nationwide as Democratic activist fear an all billairino election. Now, Bloomberg has started pouring more money into his bid as he is trying to turn around his low polling.

Not only has Bloomberg started pouring in more money into his lackluster bid but he is also putting his standards for staying in the race. Bloomberg has set his standard at ten percent in New Hampshire which would put him in the top three if everyone else stays at their polling numbers currently. Ten percent would help him get delegates in New Hampshire.

This could be a high standard for Bloomberg who has stayed in the high three percent which is seven percent off from his goal to stay in the race and even if he makes ten percent and grabs a few delegates then he could face trouble going forward. Bloomberg has the money to go forward but the map of primaries doesn't help a Bloomberg bid like it helps Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren.

Has Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar Weathered the Storm?
January 2nd, 2020

Politico- Senators Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar have had a rough couple of months on the campaign trail but latest polls have shown their bad luck has started to turn around. Harris luck turned after the first debate. Harris was rising quickly after a very successful launch but has lost almost half of her support since that debate. At her worst, Harris had someone with a similar base jump in the race. On the other hand, Klobuchar has been smeared with bad headlines especially about her past mistreatment of staff. It also came out about how Klobuchar struggled to find a campaign manager to start her campaign. Many Klobuchar supporters have jumped ship and started to fuel the Biden rise.

While they were struggling and going down, both Harris and Klobuchar have been building their base and organization. That may have saved both their campaigns going into the final month. Still, we do not know if Klobuchar and Harris were able to keep their strong fundraiser which could limit how long their campaigns can last if they don't perform in the polls.

Klobuchar, Delaney are Impressive Candidates: Our Endorsment For 2020
January 5th, 2020

The Des Moines Register- In 2020, we have over thirty candidates running for the Democratic nomination and two challengers in the president's party. In the Republican party, the Des Moines Register views Bill Weld as the best candidate in the Republican primary but we will not endorse in that field. We fell Coulter is as extreme as President Trump but has hugged the racism that President Trump has tried to push away, close to her. Weld, on the other hand, has the experience and is a moderate to Libertarian but our endorsement cannot determine whether Weld runs on convection or running for political gain. That is the main reason why the Des Moines Register will not endorse in the 2020 contest but we do believe Weld is the best of the gang of three.

In the other party, there are multiple good candidates out the thirty which makes the job of the endorsement board even harder. In the end, we decided to endorse two qualified and impressive candidates that have clearly put a lot of effort into Iowa which is why the Des Moines Register are endorsing Amy Klobuchar and John Delaney.

Delaney and Klobuchar are both pagramtic politicians who have worked with both sides. Delaney and Klobuchar have accepted some progressive policies that also make a clear difference between them and President which will be the needed in the 2020 general election, especially for Democratic activist.
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« Reply #42 on: February 13, 2019, 07:29:40 pm »

Is Joememtum Gone?
January 12th, 2020

Washington Post- Joe Biden has taken back the frontrunner spot and has strengthened his lead in Iowa after an endorsement by the largest newspaper in New Hampshire, Union Leader. Following the endorsement, Biden has started to earn endorsements from around the country including some powerful Iowa endorsements like one of the three representatives. Now, that 'Joememtum' may be coming to an end.

Biden has fallen from the headlines after being on top for a whole week and he is being replaced with some of his closest challengers in Iowa, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, Sherrod Brown and John Delaney. Both Klobuchar and Delaney received the endorsement from the Des Moines Register which is the largest newspaper in Iowa. Klobuchar also seems to be bouncing back after a big drop in support in September after the staff abuse scandal came out. Delaney also got attention for his large ground organization and his strong rural vote which could help save him in some rural counties from the viability threshold.

Biden endorsements are also drying up, Biden pushed to get endorsed by the other two Representatives in the state but both have yet to endorse. Biden also wasn't able to get endorsements of some powerful unions that have split their endorsements among Brown, O'Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard and Tim Ryan.

With the drying up of endorsements and press coverage, this could mean the end to 'Joememtum' that gave Biden a needed push into the last month before caucusing.

Klobuchar Earns Endorsments From Axne, Finkenaur; O'Rourke Endorsed by Sand
January 15th, 2019

CNN- In fourteen days, the first virtual caucus will be held for the Iowa Caucus which is their version of early voting and the first time they will be implementing the system then on February 4th, 2020 the Iowa Caucus will be held. The Iowa Caucus is crucial for dark horse candidates to prove their candidacy as the first voting that will be held in the whole nation. All the Democrats have been laying their groundwork for months or even years like one dark horse candidate, John Delaney, who is now seeing the hard work pay off as their poll numbers rise. Candidates have also been working on endorsements for their campaigns and with so few potential high-profile endorsers in Iowa, they have been consistently contacted.

All that hard work is starting to pay off for two candidates, Senator Amy Klobuchar and Former Representative Beto O'Rourke, who just received the three remaining high-profile endorsers in the state that hold elected office currently. O'Rourke announced on January 13th that he had received the endorsement of Rob Sand who is the newly elected Treasure in Iowa and who was the only Democrat to hold statewide elected office after 2018. Sand, in his endorsement, stated: "Beto O'Rourke is not only one of the most qualified voices in the race but he will also bring a fresh face to Washington." Sand could potential be a big boost for the campaign as Sand is only elected official in the state. Klobuchar was endorsed by two out of three Democratic Representatives in Iowa. The Representative who didn't endorse Klobuchar, Dave Loebsack, endorsed Joe Biden in late December. The two Representatives who did endorse Klobuchar, Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenaur, are both freshmen Democrats who rode both the women wave and the blue wave in 2018.

Sand's endorsement for O'Rourke and Axne and Finkenaur endorsement of Klobuchar are a big deal for those two candidates who are in a battle for first place against Joe Biden. These endorsements could sway the last few voters to either of those campaigns and may even make the difference in Iowa.

As Eyes are on Iowa, Senate Races Around the Nation Start to Heat Up
January 16th, 2019

The Gazette- Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa has earned her most serious challenge yet last week. Former Governor Tom Vilsack entered the race that was lacking a big name in the field to challenge the first-term Senator. Vilsack won his second term in 2002 when he won a landslide election against his competitor but that was the last time he had run for office and he could be facing a similar problem that former Governor Tim Pawlenty faced in 2018 when he lost in the primary to a much less known challenger. Vilsack will have to learn about new fundraising, he must get used to the leftward swing of the party and he will have to recruit staff which may be difficult as many candidates especially president have stolen the highest profile activist.

As Iowa's senate race heats up, Senate races across the country are also heating up before the crucial November election. In the Colorado senate race against Senator Cory Gardner who is also a first-term senator also got a few more competitors before the Democratic primary. The most prominent of those entries was Cary Kennedy who is the former Treasurer of Colorado and who ran for Governor in 2018 and came in second to current Governor Jared Polis in the Democratic primary. Gardner may be hard to beat with his fundraising edge and his popularity in the state but Kennedy is the strongest candidate in the race so far to challenge Gardner.

In Kentucky, the majority leader Mitch McConnel will be facing a challenge from former navy fighter pilot and failed 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath. McGrath got pushed into the race by minorty leader, Chuck Shumer, who met with her in December 2018. McGrath launched her campaign a few months back and is facing little competion to challenge McConnell. McGrath does face the problem of being a very conservative state with former popular Democrats like Alsion Grimes having little success in the state.

In Arizona, Martha McSally, the Former Represenative who replaced Jon Kyl, is facing competion from two Democrats who are in a harsh primary fight that could benfit McSally like her primary helped Krysten Sinema did two years ago.

Gabbard, Harris Take Shots At Biden
Janaury 19th, 2019

The Hill- Former Vice-President Joe Biden surged with, what activist called, 'Joememtum' but his momentum has stalled in recent days with his lack of media coverage and lack of endorsements. Now, his opponents have also seen him as an easy target going into the final days before the Iowa Caucus especially over his past gaffes. Senator Kamala Harris who is now running a reenergized campaign and Representative Tulsi Gabbard who has won support from across the aisle have both turned their aim to Joe Biden in the final days.

Harris called out Biden for his statement in the 2008 race when he called then-Senator Obama 'Clean' and 'articulate'. Harris stated, "It is amazing that we would let that comment by then-Senator Biden slide. The worst part is that Biden will never admit that his racist because he doesn't even know it is racist. That is why it is so important our party doesn't elect another white, male candidate again." Harris was speaking to a mainly African-American church and he went further into race relations in the country but that comment stroke and note for the audience who all cheered loudly.

Gabbard while barnstorming college towns on the east part of Iowa talked about how insensitive Biden's comment about Indians was. Gabbard told a crowd of young Democrats that "Biden has constantly said inappropriate things and blatantly racist things too. We cannot let that just slide because he is a Democrat, we cannot just let that slide as a gaffe anymore. We need to call it what it is, a racist comment that is not appoarte especially in America where everybody is born equal and free."

Both Gabbard and Harris have started to just attack the top of Biden's long list of gaffes that hurt the Obama white house and his campaign. If for the next few weeks, Iowans only hear about Biden's gaffes then the momentum he once saw could be completely gone by caucus day.

Ojeda Ask Supporters To Have Brown As Second Choice
January 23rd, 2019

ABC News- State Senator Richard Ojeda has realsed a vigrous two week scheadule of Iowa for the final days before the caucus in a hope of an underdog vicotry or at least an overperformance in the state that his final hope in his dark horse campaign. Ojeda has recieved little media coverage or big donors but has kept his campaign alive for over a year and is marching to the Iowa with a majority union base. Ojeda hopes he can contitue to play off the union message to win but he doesn't even need a win to claim victory. To claim victory for him is anything above five percent which is over double what he has right now in the state and he hopes to do it with his pro-union message. The same message that helped boost his failed congressional campaign in 2018.

Still, Ojeda fears that in some parts of the state espically in the more urban areas he won't perform well with his union message and he needs fiveteen percent to be viable. Knowing this, Ojeda has asked his supporters to have Senator Sherrod Brown as their second choice. Brown also has a very pro-union message but his bid has stalled with the unpopularty of the tariffs that Brown backs.

Some activist and Democratic leadership are begging that Ojeda instead of wasting money in the presidential contest leave the race and join a West Virginia race. Many activist have had a target on Jim Justice, the Governor of West Virginia, back since Justice switched to the Republican and many hope that Ojeda will join the race or join the senate race against Shelly Capato-Moore who had a landslide victory in 2014.

Reynolds, Ernst and Grassley Endorse Trump
January 25th, 2019

USA Today- The three most powerful officials in Iowa have all gotten back on the Trump train in the final days before the caucus. Governor Kim Reynolds, Senator Joni Ernst and Senator Chuck Grassley have all backed the President in the upcoming Iowa caucus and realsed a joint statement urging Iowans to back the President in the caucus. They also attacked the primary challengers of President Trump and stated, "It is truly saddening to know how much ego both Ms. Coulter and Mr. Weld must have to primary the President instead of actualy try to help the discussion." and they even went on to say, "It is ridcoulous we must formally say this but both Ms. Coulter and Mr. Weld have forced us to endorse the President in a public statement even though it is very much public knowledge that we agree the President is the best candidate in the race."

This endorsment could be a boost to the president in the final days before the caucus and some allies in a competive state. This could also hurt the reelection bid of Senator Ernst who may of just allienate many of her base voters that she will need back by November. Either way, this endorsment will play out well for President Trump and could add needed surrogates to the campaign trail in the final days before the first caucus.

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 12.1% (-0.6)
Joe Biden: 11.9% (-0.9)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.4% (+0.2 )
Kamala Harris: 6.7% (+0.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.2% (+0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.0% (+0.9)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.7% (-0.3)
Cory Booker: 4.9% (-0.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 4.1% (+0.5)
Sherrod Brown: 3.5% (+0.0)
Andrew Gillum: 3.4% (-0.3)
John Delaney: 2.5% (+0.7)
Stacey Abrams: 2.1% (-0.3)
Julian Castro: 2.0% (+0.0)
Michael Bennet: 1.6% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.5% (+0.1)
John Hickenlooper: 1.3%(+0.5)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (-0.4)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.2% (-0.3)
Seth Moulton: 1.1% (+0.6)
Richard Ojeda: 0.6% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.5% (+0.2)
Steve Bullock: 0.4% (+0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.3% (+0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.2% (-0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.2% (+0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (-0.3)
Jeff Merkley: 0.1% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.1% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (-0.2)
Undecided: 13.7% (+1.0)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 14.3% (-1.7)
Amy Klobuchar: 12.8% (+1.5)
Beto O'Rourke: 11.0% (+0.6)
Sherrod Brown: 10.4% (+0.2)
Bernie Sanders: 6.4% (-0.3)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.2% (+0.9)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.1% (+0.0)
John Delaney: 5.9% (+1.3)
Tim Ryan: 4.2% (+0.3)
Kamala Harris: 2.7% (+0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 2.5% (+0.4)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.5% (-0.4)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.7% (-0.1)
Cory Booker: 1.6% (-0.3)
Steve Bullock: 1.5% (+0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.2% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.1% (+0.0)
Stacey Abrams: 0.9% (-0.6)
Andrew Gillum: 0.8% (-0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 0.8% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.6% (+0.1)
Andrew Yang: 0.4% (-0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.4% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkely: 0.4% (+0.1)
Seth Moulton: 0.2% (-0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 0.1% (-0.2)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.0% (-0.2)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 4.5% (-1.2)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 16.2% (+0.1)
Bernie Sanders: 13.5% (-0.6)
Kristen Gillibrand: 11.5% (+0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 6.7% (+0.3)
Joe Biden: 5.7% (-0.9)
Seth Moulton: 5.5% (+0.4)
Michael Bennet: 5.3% (-0.1)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.2% (-0.3)
Michael Bloomberg: 4.4% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 3.1% (+0.8 )
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.0% (+0.1)
Kamala Harris: 2.5% (+0.4)
Terry McAuliffe: 1.9% (+0.5)
Cory Booker: 1.7% (+0.2)
Amy Klobuchar: 1.5% (+0.6)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (-0.1)
Steve Bullock: 1.2% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 1.2% (+0.2)
Stacey Abrams: 1.0% (-0.1)
Jeff Merkley: 1.0% (+0.0)
Sherrod Brown: 0.9% (-0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.9% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 0.8% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.5% (+0.0)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.4% (+0.1)
Andrew Gillum: 0.2% (-0.4)
Eric Swalwell: 0.1% (+0.1)
Joe Sanberg: 0.0% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 7.2% (-1.2)
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« Reply #43 on: February 14, 2019, 09:48:27 pm »

Iowa is Klobuchar Country? Biden Country? Trump Country? Beto Country?
Febuary 3rd, 2020

FiveThirtyEight- The Iowa Caucus will be held tomorrow, early voting and virtual caucus are already over. Now, this will be the last time that FiveThirtyEight will be forecasting the results of tomorrows election and what candidates truly need to call a victory.

At this moment, the Iowa caucus is in a three-way tie and two others have a path to victory. Senator Amy Klobuchar, Former Vice-President Joe Biden, and Former Representative Beto O'Rourke all can see victory but all one of the three can claim victory in Iowa. Klobuchar has the organization and the momentum in the neighboring state to her home state of Minnesota. Biden has the support of establishment Democrats and has high likability even if it has dropped since the begging of the campaign. O'Rourke has the charisma and has built a strong amount of support among activist.

All three, O'Rourke, Klobuchar and Biden all are the most likely to taste the sweet victory in Iowa but two more may come from behind in a surprise win. Senator Sherrod Brown and Senator Bernie Sanders both have similar traits to the three frontrunners. Brown has the organization, has gained support from unions which are crucial in a win and has gained a bump from Ojeda who has asked his supporters to have Brown as their second choice. Sanders has had enuthisc supporters who have been routing for his bid since he ended his 2016 bid. Still, Sanders is the most unlikely of the five to win the caucus which he lost four years earlier. Sanders supporters have been splitting from and supporting Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard who both have been gaining steam for the final month.

Most candidates don't need to win Iowa to be able to claim victory for the night like Brown. Brown doesn't need a first place to claim victory even if he is hoping for the win in tomorrow's caucus. All Brown needs to claim a victory in tomorrow's caucus and hold off the end of the campaign may be just getting a strong third place or even a second place would be all he needs to claim victory without a first place. Some other candidates that can claim victory without a win but just a very good showing are Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Tim Ryan, Richard Ojeda, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Gillum, and Stacey Abrams. All those are candidates who put subsitianlly effort into the state and all are dark horse candidates. Just a good showing especially for Gabbard and Delaney who will try to win some delegates and push their campaigns forward.

Some candidates are just skipping Iowa all together as so many candidates are competing in the caucus and going to the New Hampshire. That includes some powerful candidates like Kristen Gillibrand, Bill De Blasio, John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, and Michael Bloomberg. Some others are aiming to go to South Carolina like Kamala Harris and Cory Booker and some are pushing all away to Super Tuesday where they have some states favoring them like Eric Swalwell. What is yet to be known is if a candidate can skip the first state or even the first four states and survive especially with fundraising as donors look for a winner.

Democrats aren't the only candidates that are competing in the Iowa Caucus. President Trump is defending against two primary challengers but has received support from establishment Republicans in Iowa with one last boost before the caucus. Trump doesn't even need to lose to hurt his campaign to a primary challenger especially if he gets under sixty percent against Coulter or Weld which will give them delegates to the national convention.

Trump Trounces Competors; Coulter Leaves Field
Febuary 4th, 2020

Fox News- Just minutes after results started to come in from Iowa, it was clear the President didn't just win Iowa but also crushed his two competitors. Former Governor Bill Weld pledged to continue his campaign unto New Hampshire, the First in the Nation Primary. Weld didn't put much effort into Iowa, only hiring two field staffers with one office but he was able to win one delegate and he has put almost all his efforts in the early state of New Hampshire. President Trump's other competitor who was running to President Trump's right, Ann Coulter, put almost all her effort into this highly conservative state.

Coulter was able to win around thirty percent and five delegates out of the thirty. Still, that was not enough to keep her in the race. Tonight in a rally outside Ames, Iowa Coulter announced her departure of the race but didn't endorse either of the two candidates left in the race. Coulter stated, "We need to keep waiting for a conservative candidate to run or we are left with Liberal Trump and Hillary-Republican Weld."

President Trump could easily claim victory with winning over sixty percent and forcing out one of his competitors. Still, this could cause some tension at the convection with Coulter loyalist being in the crowd during the convection and their support of a challenger could bring in the potential of fights on floors. Trump also will have to reach out and urge Coulter to endorse which could be humiliating for the President.

Official Iowa Republican Caucus on Febuary 4th, 2020
30 Delegates in Iowa
Donald Trump: 63.7% (24)
Ann Coutler: 26.8% (5)
Bill Weld: 9.5% (1)

Iowa is Amy Country: Klobuchar Wins Iowa
Febuary 4th, 2020

CNN- In one of the closet caucus in Iowa, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota was able to pull off the upset win in the state that borders her home. Klobuchar ran on a pragmatic agenda but also won over voters with her strong questioning of Trump's judicial choices including Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Klobuchar came back after a scandal about staff abuse that came out in September but with a strong organization and momentum from last-minute endorsement, she was able to bounce back and pushed the former Vice-President, Joe Biden to second place.

This could be very damaging to Biden's campaign but a war chest he had built up throughout his period of 'Joememtum' which lasted from December to early January. His war chest could even get him to Super Tuesday where he already has an unmatched organization and candidates like Klobuchar have yet looked at.

Closely behind Biden was Senator Sherrod Brown and then Former Representative Beto O'Rourke. O'Rourke pledged to continue till at least Nevada where he is aiming for a place in the top two. Brown, on the other hand, is claiming victory and has already started to fundraise off his good performance in the first caucus of the primary season. Brown has little hope left in early states, like Kasich did after his strong second place in New Hampshire in 2016, so he, like Biden, might be turning to Super Tuesday where he could pick up his first win.

Rounding out the top five is a surprise performance by Representative Tulsi Gabbard who had built energy around her campaign and had won the first debate and has been cruising with momentum in Iowa ever since. Gabbard is also claiming victory with the surprisingly good performance and vowed to continue to at least Super Tuesday where she hopes she can win some states. Gabbard bypassed the person she endorsed in 2016, Senator Bernie Sanders, who had neither an underwhelmed or overwhelmed performance in the caucus. Still, his performance in the caucus tonight truly shows how much of his supporters have left him since 2016 but Sanders continues his campaign to at least New Hampshire wherein 2016, he had a landslide victory against Hillary Clinton.

Other good performances of the night went to Tim Ryan and John Delaney who both have built their campaigns in the state and had some of the strongest organizations. Delaney has said this has given him a ticket to move onto New Hampshire but Ryan's fate is still uncertain. His campaign has yet to respond from messages asking if Ryan will be conceding the race tonight.

We do have one suspension as of right now but the list will probably grow by tomorrow morning when all the dust settles from the caucus. Joe Sanberg who ran on an eliminating poverty platform suspended his campaign after a disappointing result and stated, "I cannot continue knowing there is no path to victory. I will not endorse at this time but will choose a candidate that can continue my message."

Official Iowa Democratic Caucus on Febuary 4th, 2020
56 Delegates in Iowa
Amy Klobuchar: 14.5% (16)
Joe Biden: 13.9% (10)
Sherrod Brown: 11.2% (7)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.7% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 9.1% (5)
Bernie Sanders: 6.4% (3)
John Delaney: 6.2% (3)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.1% (2)
Tim Ryan: 4.4% (2)
Kamala Harris: 3.1% (1)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.7% (1)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.6%
Richard Ojeda: 1.5%
Stacey Abrams: 1.5%
Julian Castro: 1.2%
Steve Bullock: 1.1%
Cory Booker: 1.0%
Michael Bennet: 0.9%
Joe Sanberg: 0.9%
Andrew Gillum: 0.7%
Seth Moulton: 0.7%
John Hickenlooper: 0.6%
Marianna Williamson: 0.4%
Andrew Yang: 0.3%
Jeff Merkely: 0.2%
Terry McAullife: 0.1%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%
Bill De Blasio: 0.0%
Michael Bloomberg: 0.0%
Jay Inslee: 0.0%

Ryan, Ojeda, Sanberg, Yang Leave Race
Febuary 5th, 2020

Washington Post- After the first contest of the 2020 election cycle began, Senator Amy Klobuchar came out as the winner. Many others claimed victory but some didn't have the same luck as Klobuchar and other Democrats and knew it was time to end their campaigns. Joe Sanberg, who was one of the last Democrats in the race and ran on an eliminate poverty platform, was first to announce to leave the race late last night after it was clear he wouldn't be even close to winning the caucus. Sanberg left the race after just winning 0.9% of the vote in Iowa and left with no endorsement but pledge to endorse later on.

In the early morning, State Senator Richard Ojeda announced he would drop out at his Iowa Election Night rally. Ojeda had a sharp drop in support from the last poll to caucus night and gave an extra boost to Brown when he told his supporters to have Senator Sherrod Brown as their second choice. Ojeda said in his speech, "This is not the end of my political career. I am going to always fight for the people being left behind by President Trump and the rich friend who have helped themselves instead of the people that truly need it." and then Ojeda went on to endorse Brown and stated, "The only other candidate in this field that will fight for unions and progressive values is Sherrod Brown, he has my full support."

Ojeda was not the last to drop out of the race today, the most significant other candidates who dropped out was Representative Tim Ryan who gained national attention for having a leadership battle with Nancy Pelosi. Ryan told his rally last time that this was amazing results and would be bringing delegates from Iowa to the national convection. Ryan also said he would be examining the results and seeing where he will be able to go from here but he sounded confident. In an email to press and top supporters, Ryan announced he would be holding a rally in Akron, Ohio this afternoon to announce he would withdraw from the race and would endorse Representative Seth Moulton who has been a good friend to Ryan in the house. In his home state, Ryan would highlight the failures of President Trump for the manufacturing states of Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. After being asked by a reporter, Ryan said he would be open to a spot on the ticket.

The last to drop out was Andrew Yang who was running on a Universal Basic Income and had been campaigning for president for more than two years. Yang struggled to overcome doubt about how serious his campaign was and it just never was able to come off the ground. Yang ended up dropping his long-shot bid by releasing a statement to the Washington Post saying, "Our campaign wished for better results but we believe we brought a real debate to the national scene. I will not continue as a presidential candidate but I will continue to spread the message of the UBI."
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« Reply #44 on: February 15, 2019, 01:50:08 pm »

Congressional Black Caucus Split Support between Harris, Abrams and Booker
Febuary 5th, 2020

Townhall- One of the most influence caucuses in Congress, the Congressional Black Caucus, is splitting its support among three candidates. The only African-American candidate in the race to not receive an endorsement from the all African-American caucus was Former Mayor Andrew Gillum. This could hurt Gillum who has mostly relied on African-American support to win. Already, Gillum was on a downward path after a poor showing in Iowa where he got less than one percent.

The three African-American candidates did receive endorsements were Former State Representative Stacey Abram, Senator Kamala Harris, and Senator Cory Booker. Harris was the only one of the three to have a semi-good performance in Iowa. Harris was able to obtain a delegate and won around three percent of the vote which is two percent better than where she was at the start of the month. Booker and Abrams had around one percent of the vote in Iowa and both have low expectations for New Hampshire where neither has stuck out of the pack.

Harris won over the endorsements of Barbara Lee,  Karen Bass, and Joyce Betty. Booker earned the endorsements of G.k. Butterfield, Cedric Richmond, Elijah Cummings, and Jim Clyburn which will be a big asset in Booker's goal of winning South Carolina. Stacey Abrams only received one endorsement from the caucus, Marcia Fudge of Ohio. Fudge and Betty both abstained from endorsing till their Ohio colleague Tim Ryan dropped out.

Out of the group of endorsers, Jim Clyburn could be the most influence ahead of the crucial South Carolina primary that Gillum, Harris, Abrams, and Booker are all trying to win over before Super Tuesday and a handful of southern states.

Should Sanders Drop Out and Endorse One of His Followers?
Febuary 7th, 2020

Politico- After a dismal showing in Iowa and falling polls in New Hampshire, is it time for Bernie Sanders to step aside and endorse one of his followers?

Sanders underperformed in Iowa and his falling number partially allowed a Gabbard surge in Iowa. Now, Sanders is seeing his numbers slip in the state he won in a landslide in the 2016 primary against Hillary. Sanders also has had his campaign manager leave his campaign and stated, "I wish I could continue but the campaign has driven itself into the ground and I don't see any way it can come back under my leadership. I hope the next campaign manager can turn around the poll numbers and support of Bernie Sanders."

Sanders will also have to decide if he supports one of his followers who could benefit from his backing especially Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been leading in New Hampshire but, like Sanders, had a dismal result in Iowa and has seen her polls drop in New Hampshire. Warren could even lose the state to Kristen Gillibrand who had grown her organization and support in the state for some time and skipped Iowa. Gillibrand might not even be the winner, she could even lose to the much moderate John Hickenlooper which Sanders and Warren both don't want as they want the party to move to the left.

Moulton, Klobuchar on the Rise, O'Rourke Moving Effort to Nevada
Febuary 8th, 2020

Boston Globe- After a win in Iowa, Senator Amy Klobuchar is felling the love in New Hampshire. Klobuchar has been rising in the polls both nationally and in Iowa like Senator Ted Cruz did after his surprise win in Iowa. Cruz ended up third in New Hampshire to Donald Trump and John Kasich. Still, Klobuchar has a far way to go till a third-place victory in New Hampshire but she may pass some candidates that have stacked their campaigns in New Hampshire if their hard work doesn't pay off like Michael Bloomberg and Bill De Blasio.

Another candidate on the rise in New Hampshire is Representative Seth Moulton who got a boost of support from an endorsement by former competitor Representative Tim Ryan who dropped out of the race the day after the Iowa caucus. Ryan was polling around two percent in Iowa but two percent can make all the difference in some close races. Moulton also received the backing of Maura Sullivan who he backed in the first congressional district primary in 2018 which she ended up being a runner up into Representative Chris Pappas who has yet endorsed a candidate.

While Moulton and Klobuchar start to build up their campaigns in New Hampshire before the important first in the nation primary, other candidates are pulling efforts away in the final days as they try to lower expectations. Former Representative Beto O'Rourke ended in a close fourth place which was much lower than he wanted or expected with the energy around his candidacy. O'Rourke has stated that he has placed much of his Iowa staffers in the national office or their Nevada field office. O'Rourke also announced that, though he hopes for a victory in New Hampshire, he sees the very little chance of a victory in New Hampshire is and will be moving those staffers to Nevada to help in the effort in that state.

Bill Weld Endorsed By Larry Hogan, John Kasich and Susan Collins
Febuary 10th, 2020

Concord Journal- Former Governor Bill Weld has gotten a few last minute endorsements ahead of the crucial New Hampshire where Weld has put most of his efforts. Weld so-far has only obtained one delegate from Iowa but now is the lone challenger left against President Trump. In New Hampshire, most polls put Weld between twenty and thirty percent which Weld has called a major victory. Weld has said, by justing winning twenty percent, it means "The GOP is not all in for President Trump and truly some in the Republican do want to become the uniting party it once was."

Weld has gotten a major boost before the polls start to close from three endorsements from influential moderates within the party. Former Governor John Kasich who was mulling his own bid earlier in the year, stated "Governor Weld is by far the better candidate in the primary. He has my full endorsement and I know he will take us down the right path." The last part of the statement was a point to Kasich's famous speech about two paths in 2016. Weld also was endorsed by Governor Larry Hogan who also was considering a run for president himself and he joined the Governor in a rally in New Hampshire on Saturday, saying, "Bill is an uniter, he united Massachusetts and passed needed reforms and he will unite this country when it needs reform after four years of division under President Donald Trump."

The last endorsement that Weld received in the last few days was the Senator from the neighboring state of Maine, Susan Collins. Collins could be hurt with this endorsement as she already is in a tossup race and alienating part of her base is probably not her best path to victory but she has promised she will endorse President Trump if Governor Weld doesn't succeed in the primaries which is very likely.

CNN Final Poll of New Hampshire Republicans
Sample Size: 937
Donald Trump: 68.3%
Bill Weld: 20.8%
Ann Coulter: 7.1%
Undecided: 3.4%

Rep. Pappas Endorses Pete Buttigieg in last minute endorsment
Febuary 11th, 2019

The Union Leader- In a last-minute endorsement before tomorrow's primary, freshmen Congressmen Chris Pappas, endorsed Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the primary. This comes as a surprise but not a total shock. Many believed Pappas would join with his fellow congressional Democrats and withhold an endorsement till after the primary. Pappas even, up to last week, himself said he planned to stay neutral but did tell the press that he had his candidate picked out for quite some time now.

Pappas, the first gay congressmen from New Hampshire, endorsed Buttigieg who is also gay. Pappas acknowledge that one of the reasons he supported Buttigieg is because Buttigieg being openly gay and a former veteran. Pappas stated, "Buttigieg has stood and fought for our country, risking his own life. All that happened he still could not get married because of his sexual orientation. Buttigieg fought for this country and then for the right to marry. Buttigieg is truly a hero of the LGBT community and will be the perfect opponent to the anti-LGBT team of President Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence." Pappas went on to say, "Not only am I giving my full endorsement to Pete Buttigieg because of his sexual orientation but because he is a progressive hero that turned around a town that was on the brink of the death."

This is a needed boost to Buttigieg who was one of the few remaining candidates that stacked their campaign in Iowa that are left in the race. Buttigieg is scheduled to give a few final speeches in New Hampshire tonight and Buttigieg has said Pappas will be joining for multiple speeches. Pappas will also canvass tomorrow according to Buttigieg and his campaign

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 11.1% (-1.0)
Joe Biden: 10.7% (-1.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.3% (-0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.7% (+2.7)
Kamala Harris: 7.1% (+0.4)
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.4% (+0.2)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.1% (-0.6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.0% (+0.9)
Cory Booker: 4.6% (-0.3)
Sherrod Brown: 4.1% (+0.6)
John Delaney: 2.9% (+0.4)
Andrew Gillum: 2.5% (-0.9)
Stacey Abrams: 2.0% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.8% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.6% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 1.5% (+0.4)
John Hickenlooper: 1.4%(+0.1)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.3% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.1% (-0.4)
Eric Swalwell: 0.4% (-0.1)
Bill De Blasio: 0.3% (+0.0)
Marianna Williamson: 0.3% (+0.1)
Steve Bullock: 0.2% (-0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.0)
Jeff Merkley: 0.0% (-0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.0% (-0.2)
Undecided: 15.2% (+1.5)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 15.7% (-0.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 11.9% (+0.4)
Bernie Sanders: 11.8% (-1.7)
John Hickenlooper: 6.2% (-0.5)
Michael Bennet: 6.0% (+0.7)
Seth Moulton: 5.7% (+0.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.8% (-0.4)
Michael Bloomberg: 4.3% (-0.1)
Joe Biden: 4.3% (-1.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.9% (+0.9)
Bill De Blasio: 3.4% (+0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 3.1% (+1.6)
Kamala Harris: 2.7% (+0.2)
Terry McAuliffe: 2.0% (+0.1)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.7% (+1.3)
Sherrod Brown: 1.6% (+0.7)
Cory Booker: 1.4% (-0.3)
Jay Inslee: 1.3% (+0.1)
Jeff Merkley: 1.1% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 1.1% (+0.3)
Steve Bullock: 0.9% (-0.3)
Stacey Abrams: 0.8% (-0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.7% (-0.2)
Julian Castro: 0.5% (+0.0)
Eric Swalwell: 0.3% (+0.2)
Andrew Gillum: 0.1% (-0.1)
Undecided: 7.1% (-0.1)

Democrats Delegate Count
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Joe Biden: 10
Sherrod Brown: 7
Beto O'Rourke: 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 5
Bernie Sanders: 3
John Delaney: 3
Elizabeth Warren: 2
Tim Ryan: 2
Kamala Harris: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1

Republican Delegate Count
Donald Trump: 24
Ann Coulter: 5
Bill Weld: 1
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« Reply #45 on: February 15, 2019, 03:25:54 pm »
« Edited: February 16, 2019, 09:07:38 pm by terp40hitch »

Trump Wins But Is It Really A Victory?
Febuary 12th, 2020

Politico- President Trump was able to win New Hampshire as many expected but it is not the victory to push Governor Bill Weld out of the race that many in the campaign hoped it would be. It might have even done the exact opposite, it might have legitimized the threat of Bill Weld and his dark horse campaign. After this very much underperformance by the President, the President's campaign the President himself may have to admit that they are fighting a two-front war for the next few weeks. This will also make Super Tuesday, all that more important for President Trump, whose campaign believes that is the next time they can push Weld out of the race.

Trump would also have to admit his weakness among Independents and Libertarians who pushed him over the top in a few states in 2016. This may mean Trump needs to readjust his strategy away from the attack dog to a more uniting figure which Weld has played most of the campaign. Trump will also have to spend more money on the primary then he hoped he would which could damage the President in the general election because he needs all the money he can get to defeat whoever the Democrats nominate at their convection.

Weld, on the other hand, has had a treamidious victory with legitimizing his threat against President Trump and now bringing delegates to the convection. Weld now also has shown to donors he can do some damage to the President which could be a big money-making statement to Never Trump donors or even Democratic donors who were already prepared to finance a serious challenge to the President which they did not believe was Bill Weld but this could have changed some minds going forward.

Official New Hampshire Republican Primary on Febuary 12th, 2020
23 Delegates
Donald Trump: 56.7% (14)
Bill Weld: 38.4% (9)
Ann Coulter: 4.9%

Elizabeth Warren Survives New Hampshire On Top
Febuary 13th, 2020

New York Times- Supporters, Activist, Volunteers, Staffers, and Activist were all up late last night and up into the early morning till news organization started to call New Hampshire in the closet primary in modern history. Senator Elizabeth Warren from neighboring Massachusetts was the winner of the first in the nation primary. Warren was in a battle for first with three other candidates, John Hickenlooper, Bernie Sanders, and Kristen Gillibrand, but Warren was able to fight the bad press to come on top.

Warren had been hailed as a frontrunner in the 2020 Democratic primary since Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016 but her support soon fell from under her after she revealed her DNA test and claimed to be Native American which could haunt her especially in the general election. Warren had even struggled in New Hampshire where she had lead in the polls for just around a month and took a hit for her underperformance in Iowa. Warren still isn't even on top in delegates even though she won New Hampshire and she has few states left in February that could launch her to first place in delegates since Warren struggles with minority voters as Sanders did four years earlier.

Warren was able to claim victory but so did Gillibrand and Hickenlooper who had built an organization that almost have never been seen before because they were so big. Both were dark horses but they could have just launched their campaigns and this is a nice boost and victory to two candidates that are rarely in the headlines.

New Hampshire like in Iowa, multiple candidates put all their effort into the state and many weren't as lucky as Gillibrand and Hickenlooper were. Michael Bloomberg has already stated he would be reassing his campaign in the morning after not reaching the ten percent he put as his goal. Some others have said they would be continuing their campaigns like Bill De Blasio who stated, "I have the money to continue and I believe I have the message so I will not be ending anything tonight even if some establishment Democrats want me to."

Official Democrat New Hampshire Primary on Febuary 12th, 2020
32 Delegates
Eliabeth Warren: 13.7% (7)
Kristen Gillibrand: 13.5% (6)
John Hickenlooper: 12.9% (6)
Bernie Sanders: 11.6% (5)
Seth Moulton: 8.3% (3)
Michael Bennet: 5.4% (2)
Michael Bloomberg: 5.2% (1)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.1% (1)
Joe Biden: 3.4% (1)
Bill De Blasio: 3.2%
Amy Klobuchar: 3.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.1%
Terry McAullife: 3.0%
Pete Buttigieg: 2.3%
Kamala Harris: 1.9%
Sherrod Brown: 1.8%
Jay Inslee: 1.4%
Jeff Merkley: 1.3%
Cory Booker: 1.1%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Marianna Williamson: 0.9%
Stacey Abrams: 0.7%
Steve Bullock: 0.5%
Julian Castro: 0.4%
Eric Swalwell: 0.2%
Andrew Gillum: 0.0%

Bloomberg, Moulton, Williamson Are Out
Febuary 13th, 2020

Fox News- When all the dust started to settle from the closets New Hampshire primary ever, three more candidates were out of the race. Senator Elizabeth Warren came out on top and many other candidates claimed victory but many candidates also suffered defeats at the hands of the New Hampshire Primary.

Former Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg was the first candidate to leave the race after finishing five percent short of his goal of ten percent. Bloomberg did receive one delegate from the New Hampshire primary but after spending over fifty million dollars out of his own pocket, it was just not enough to sustain his rocking campaign. This morning, Bloomberg spoke with New Hampshire staffers and volunteers in his Manchester, New Hampshire field office where he hoped would be a victory speech last night. Bloomberg said, "I am so proud of everyone in this crowd, you guys fought for the American values that the country held before America elected the bigot in chief. Sadly, I know I won't be able to beat that man and so I am stepping aside and leaving the race." many staffers in the crowd showed shock, a staffer told Fox News that he was expecting Bloomberg to claim victory. He told us he never thought the pledge was real and many other staffers didn't take it seriously either which is why many were shocked in the crowd. Bloomberg did endorse Joe Biden and claimed, "Biden is the most like me candidate there is in the field, he will make a great president and he has my full backing and support."

Marianne Williamson was the second Democrat to leave the race after a less than a stunning performance where she finished with less than one percent like in Iowa. Williamson had almost no major donors and many radical policies that weren't ready to even be talked about by many Americans who passed her off as a non-serious candidate. Williamson had a very similar statement to another candidate, Andrew Yang, who was also passed off as non-serious and dropped out last week.

The final candidate to suspend his campaign following the first in the nation primary came as a bit of a surprise after an overperformance in the primary. Representative Seth Moulton who came in fifth announced he would be suspending his campaign and would not endorse anyone currently in the field but would endorse the nominee or anyone that can prove they will continue his message.

Some thought to suspend their campaigns, did not and would continue in the primary. Those would be Bill De Blasio who said he had the money to continue, Terry McAuliffe said he would refocus his efforts to South Carolina, Jeff Merkley and Jay Inslee who both say they will continue to Nevada.

Democrats Delegate Count
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Joe Biden: 10
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
Beto O'Rourke: 7
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
John Hickenlooper: 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Michael Bennet: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Kamala Harris: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1

Republican Delegate Count
Donald Trump: 38
Bill Weld: 10
Ann Coulter: 5
Posts: 17

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« Reply #46 on: February 16, 2019, 08:18:02 am »

Definitely my favorite TL at the moment.
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Posts: 459

Political Matrix
E: 0.25, S: -3.15

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« Reply #47 on: February 16, 2019, 12:28:01 pm »

Definitely my favorite TL at the moment.
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« Reply #48 on: February 17, 2019, 03:22:45 pm »

Weld On The Rise
Febuary 16th, 2020

CNN- Bill Weld scored a huge victory for his campaign in New Hampshire last week where he almost doubled what many pollsters and even exit polls projected out of the state. The former Governor is now a formidable challenger to the President and could cost him reelection if the challenge isn't met. President Trump still seems to not take Weld seriously and tweeted out, "Weld and his gang of Democrats who vote for him in New Hampshire isn't even a Republican. What a joke."

Still, President Trump may be facing a few more obstacles in his primary with Weld as Weld rises in the polls. Some donors are also being very cautious with how they spend their funds, some that CNN talked to said that they would have to decide between a donation to Schultz and Trump after New Hampshire. Trump is also losing support Republican establishment supporters that were already on the fence about the President. The latest Republican to abonded President Trump and endorse Weld include Former Governor Brian Sandoval, Former Representative Bob Barr, and Former Representative Barbara Comstock.

For Weld, this momentum may all but stop if he doesn't perform in South Carolina which many experts believe will happen and he will replicate a performance like in Iowa where the President trounced him by double-digits. Even if Weld overperforms in South Carolina and keeps his momentum, Weld will still fall way behind in delegates to the President since South Carolina is a winner take all contest. It does look like Weld with his travel schedule will skip South Carolina and go to Nevada which is a much more friendly state since it has a lot more diversity that has been against the President and his immigration rhetoric. The state also has Libertarian leanings which could help the former-Libertarian.

Delaney Attacks Green New Deal
Febuary 18th, 2020

The Hill- Freshmen Congresswomen and the most famous Representative in the freshmen class, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, once again proposed her Green New Deal which was killed in a House and Senate vote last year by a substantial margin. Ocasio-Cortez has been able to get about the same amount of support for the Green New Deal as last time with the same sponsor in the Senate, Ed Markley of Massachusetts. Markley is in a tight primary race right now with the current attorney general of the state, Maura Healey. Healey has been running to Markley's left but cosponsors this may help him gain leverage in the primary.

Still, one main presidential candidate is going after the Green New Deal on the Democratic side. While some Democrats like Tulsi Gabbard have said they like the premise of the bill but not what is inside, John Delaney has attacked the bill and not tried to dodge the question. Delaney said, "The promises of the Green New Deal are like the promises of Trump's border wall being paid for by Mexico. They are just that, promises, and they will never come." and Delaney went on to urge the need for Climate Change action. Delaney stated, "I disagree strongly with the Green New Deal but I do strongly believe action needs to be taken to stop climate change in its tracks like a carbon admissions tax."

Delaney had a strong performance in Iowa but his campaign has yet to find a place where he could replicate that performance.

De Blasio Attacks Warren; Ocasio-Cortez Endorses Warren
Febuary 19th, 2020

New York Post- Before the New Hampshire primary, Senator Elizabeth Warren attacked the Mayor of New York City over the now-cancelled Amazon deal that gave the company three billion dollars in subsideis. Now, Mayor Bill De Blasio is attacking Warren back and blaming the company leaving the city partially on Elizabeth Warren and Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. De Blasio who had ,a dismal result in New Hampshire, in a rally in Virginia that Warren, "made the company run away with their jobs and money. Warren truly should not win a single New Yorkers vote espically if it was someone that was going to get a job from Amazon. Next, Warren will be coming for the Amazon coming to Arlington so you better not vote for her either."

De Blasio had started to campaign in Super Tuesday states espically, Vermont and Virginia where he believes he has the best chance but De Blasio is lacking momutum and has not gained an endorsment since New Hampshire. Still, as De Blasio likes to say he has 'the money to contitue' and he pledges to do so till he believes his message wouldn't be right for the country.

Soon after De Blasio attacked Warren and Ocasio-Cortez for the failed amazon headquarters, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Warren and appauled Kamala Harris which comes as a blow to Bernie Sanders and Kristen Gillibrand. Ocasio-Cortez worked for the Sanders campaign in New York in 2016 but she has flipped her support and not towards the popular homestate Senator in the race, Kirsten Gillibrand. Warren has already boasted about the endorsment after her win in New Hampshire. The endorsments kept rolling in for Warren who soon after earned the endorsment of Cynthia Nixon who ran for Governor of New York in the primary as the progressive candidate against Governor Andrew Cuomo who endorsed Gillibrand.

Hickenlooper and Bennet form Colorado Pact
Febuary 20th, 2020

Colorado Politics- Our two favorite sons in the race, Former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, have formed a 'Colorado Pact' and realsed the details to national press orginzations. Bennet and Hickenlooper both hope that a western will become president and both hope that western will come from Colorado. They both have stated they don't want to have a blood bath to the end between the two Coloradians espicaly since Bennet and Hickenlooper are close and used to work together during Hickenlooper's days as Mayor of Denver.

Hickenlooper and Bennet have decided that whoever wins Colorado will contitue in the presidential race with the backing of the other candidate after they withdrawal from the race. This is a good decision for both campaigns since both candidates have a similar pragmatism policies that have made them look very similar. What the pact between the two campaigns doesn't state is what will happen if both candidates lose Colorado.

This isn't very unusual of a pact espically since mutiple other candidates that aren't the only one in their homestate have said if they don't win in their homestate then they will drop out and endorse the other favorite son like Eric Swalwell has said about his chances in Califronia.

WSNBC Colorado Poll of Colorado Democrats
Sample Size: 301
John Hickenlooper: 20.2%
Michael Bennet: 14.5%
Joe Biden: 10.1%
Kamala Harris: 9.2%
Beto O'Rourke: 8.7%
Steve Bullock: 7.9%
Jeff Merkley: 5.8%
Bernie Sanders: 4.6%
Julian Castro: 3.9%
Amy Klobuchar: 3.8%
Jay Inslee: 2.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.6%
Cory Booker: 1.5%
Eric Swalwell: 1.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0.4%
John Delaney: 0.4%
Stacey Abrams: 0.3%
Sherrod Brown: 0.3%
Andrew Gillum: 0.1%
Terry McAullife: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0%
Undecided: 1.7%

Ojeda For Governor
Febuary 21st, 2020

CNN- One of the former presidential candidates have decided on his path forward, anouther campaign. Former long shot presidential candidate and State Senator, Richard Ojeda, launched his bid for Governor of West Virginia. Ojeda dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Senator Sherrod Brown when he obtained less than two percent of the vote in the early state of Iowa. Ojeda in his current campaign, if he wins the primary, will be facing Governor Justice who famously switched parties soon after the election. Justice's favorablity ratings have forever suffered from the switch and Ojeda could win off the unfavorbilty of the current Governor.

Ojeda was recuirted into the race by the current Democratic Governor Assocation chair, Governor Gina Riamondo of Rhode Island. Riamondo, in a statement following Ojeda's launch, stated her pleasure with Ojeda's launch and highlighted the imporantance of electing Democrats across the country and recuirting candidates that can win. Riamondo did not state wether the DGA will be involved in the race.

Ojeda isn't the only former or current presidential candidate that is being urged to join congressional or guberntional elections. Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has been asked to join the Indiana-02 race espically as his presidential campaign has been much less succesful and it looks like it could be coming to an end before even March. Still, Buttigieg says, "I will end this campagin as I started it, on my own terms. I don't know what I will do if I end it but I do know what I will do if I keep running, win this damn thing." Anouther candidate in ther race, Stacey Abrams and Steve Bullock have been both asked to run for senate instead of run for president but many have kept quite about wether those candidates should switch races since they launched their campaigns for president.

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 10.5% (+0.2)
Joe Biden: 10.2% (-0.5)
Bernie Sanders: 9.7% (-1.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.9% (+0.2)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.3% (+0.9)
Kamala Harris: 7.2% (+0.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 6.3% (+1.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.1% (+0.1)
Cory Booker: 4.2% (-0.4)
Sherrod Brown: 3.9% (-0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 2.8%(+1.4)
John Delaney: 2.5% (-0.4)
Andrew Gillum: 2.4% (-0.1)
Michael Bennet: 2.1% (+0.3)
Stacey Abrams: 2.0% (+0.0)
Julian Castro: 1.5% (-0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.1% (-0.2)
Jay Inslee: 0.9% (-0.2)
Eric Swalwell: 0.5% (+0.1)
Steve Bullock: 0.2% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 0.1% (-0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.0)
Jeff Merkley: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 16.8% (+1.7)
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« Reply #49 on: February 17, 2019, 06:42:07 pm »

Trump Crushes Weld in Highly Conservative South Carolina

Fox News- President Trump not only beat Weld in South Carolina, but he also crushed Weld in the highly conservative south. Weld got some momentum coming off his closer than an expected loss in New Hampshire and earned some southern endorsements like former Georgia Congressmen Bob Barr. Still, Weld could not keep up with Donald Trump who won more than eighty percent of the vote and all of the fifty delegates in the state putting Weld far back in the delegate count.

Trump earned not only a strong delegate lead but the primary victory helped reeginze the campaign and the President who stated at his rally tonight that, "the mainstream media wanted to act like a twenty point win killed my reelection campaign, what a bunch of losers. How about a sixty percent lead over some loser opponent." Trump's campaign also announced that it already raised over one hundred thousand dollars just tonight since the South Carolina primary was called. Trump was on stage with the Vice-President, Former UN Abbasdor Nikki Haley, and Governor Henry McMaster.

Weld still continued his insurgent campaign and told the one hundred supporters that he would continue his bid all away to the convection. Weld stated, "They may say we are down but that's what they said after Iowa. We proved them wrong a week ago, we will prove them wrong in three days in Nevada. Our message of unity is working and showing how Trump has failed this nation with his division."

Official Republican South Carolina Results on Febuary 22nd, 2020
50 Delegates
Donald Trump: 83.6% (50)
Bill Weld: 15.9%
Other: 0.5%

Kamala Harris Wins Nevada, Holder Switches Endorsment to Harris
Febuary 22nd, 2020

MSNBC- In the Nevada caucus, Senator Kamala Harris of the next door state of California came in first place in yet another close contest. This is Harris's first victory and is giving her momentum going into South Carolina which she hopes will give her a second win with its heavy African American vote. Harris victory didn't end there for the night, Harris also got the endorsement of Former Attorney General Eric Holder. Earlier in the year, Holder endorsed Mayor Andrew Gillum but explained, "I don't see a path forward for Andrew. I believe he is the future leader this nation needs but I hope he takes this as a signal to get out of the race and not further split the African-American vote."

Two Texans also had victories in the Nevada caucus, Beto O'Rourke and Julian Castro landed in the second and third spot. O'Rourke and Castro both invested heavily in Nevada in the final days after both landings in dismal spots in Iowa. Both of those candidates had heavy appeal to Latinos which could help them in future contest like California, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. O'Rourke claimed victory in his speech and said that only see him on Super Tuesday which could be a signal that he will be skipping the South Carolina primary which is highly competitive between Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker.

The other candidates who have states bordering Nevada as Harris did relatively well with Senator of Colorado Michael Bennet doing the best with a spot in the top five. The other two candidates, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, both earned delegates and both stated they would continue on in the race.

The field continued to shrink also, the Governor of Washington Jay Inslee left the race with twenty-two candidates left. Inslee promised that he would drop out if he had a bad showing in Nevada after a poor result in New Hampshire.

Official Democratic Nevada Caucus on Febuary 22nd, 2020
43 Delegates
Kamala Harris: 18.2% (14)
Beto O'Rourke: 14.3% (9)
Julian Castro: 14.1% (6)
Joe Biden: 9.6% (4)
Michael Bennet: 7.1% (3)
Eric Swalwell: 5.7% (2)
Steve Bullock: 5.3% (2)
Jeff Merkley: 4.9% (1)
John Hickenlooper: 4.7% (1)
Jay Inslee: 3.3% (1)
Bernie Sanders: 3.2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.0%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.4%
Stacey Abrams: 1.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.0%
Cory Booker: 0.8%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.7%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4%
Andrew Gillum: 0.3%
John Delaney: 0.2%
Sherrod Brown: 0.2%
Terry McAullife: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0%

Democrats Delegate Count
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Kamala Harris: 15
Joe Biden: 14
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Julian Castro: 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 5
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
Donald Trump: 88
Bill Weld: 10
Ann Coulter: 5
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