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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Abandon hope all ye who register here, Apocrypha)
  Pomp and Circumstance
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Author Topic: Pomp and Circumstance  (Read 8708 times)
alancia
Jr. Member
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Posts: 692
Argentina


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: 3.22

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« Reply #125 on: March 04, 2019, 07:13:13 pm »

2024 New Hampshire Results

"Kelly has a proven record of working for New Hampshire. I'm confident that as President she will have the same spirit of working for all Americans. That's why I'm endorsed her for President. " - Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH), speech, February 2024
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ted Cruz campaigning in New Hampshire, February 2024

Final Results

Republicans:

Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH): 19.42 % ✓

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY): 13.72 %

Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL): 13.09 %

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): 12.42 %

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): 9.02 %

Fmr. Governor John Kasich (R-OH): 8.45 %

Senator John James (R-MI): 7.14 %

Senator Sarah Palin (R-AK): 6.55 %

Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD): 4.21 %

Senator Rick Scott (R-FL): 3.00 %

Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA):  1.34%

Representative Greg Gianforte (R-MT): 1.05 %

Other: 0.59 %

Democrats:

President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 94.13% ✓

Activist Anthony Davis (D-CA): 5.10%

Other: 0.77%

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ayotte City

Senator Ayotte in her home state

As expected, Kelly Ayotte won her home state by a more than decent margin (Compared to polling in most other Republican Primary) states, although many anticipated a bigger margin, especially considering Governor Sununu's endorsement of the New Hampshire Senator. Nevertheless, this was a big boost for the Ayotte campaign, who finished last in Iowa.

2nd place went for Rand Paul, the Kentucky Senator, who performed strongly in the New England state, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis finishing 3rd, just a few decimals above his fellow Floridan, Senator Marco Rubio.

The biggest losers were John Kasich (Once again) and Larry Hogan. Kasich expected a strong perfomance in the moderate northeastern region, but fell short once again, finishing even below the conservative Ted Cruz. Polls and interviews taken before and through the primary season to Republican voters showed that the former Ohio Governor was viewed as 'finished' and an 'old asset'. Larry Hogan suspended his campaign after his also disappointing result, and endorsed Kasich.

Senator Rick Scott also suspended his campaign after New Hampshire, but refused to endorse a candidate until the General Election. Scott, recognizing that he could not compete against Rubio and DeSantis, decided to focus on his senatorial re-election campaign.

Klobuchar Once Again

Vice-President O'Rourke in a New Hampshire town hall

President Klobuchar once again won easily in the New Hampshire Democratic primaries, even improving her perfomance from the Iowa caucuses. This is explained by the fact that apart from Klobuchar being the incumbent President, Anthony Davis didn't focus on the Granite State, instead going south and west to South Carolina and Nevada.

2024 Election: Tossup? Tilt R?

February 2024 state rankings ('Generic' R v. Klobuchar)

Safe // Likely // Leaning // Tossup // Leaning // Likely // Safe

Polling Averages

Ayotte: 43 %
Klobuchar: 40 %
'Other': 7 %
Undecided: 10 %

Paul: 44 %
Klobuchar: 42 %
'Other': 5 %
Undecided: 9 %

James: 40 %
Klobuchar: 35 %
'Other': 7 %
Undecided: 18 %

DeSantis: 40 %
Klobuchar: 39 %
'Other': 8 %
Undecided: 13 %

Cruz: 44 %
Klobuchar: 44 %
'Other': 6 %
Undecided: 6 %

Klobuchar: 42 %
Rubio: 41 %
'Other': 9 %
Undecided: 8 %

Klobuchar: 42 %
Kasich: 38 %
'Other': 11 %
Undecided: 9 %

Klobuchar: 43 %
Kemp: 37 %
'Other': 7 %
Undecided: 13 %

Klobuchar: 43 %
Gianforte: 34 %
'Other': 6 %
Undecided: 17 %

Klobuchar: 48 %
Palin: 44 %
'Other': 4 %
Undecided: 2 %

Although it was still early, General Election polling between the various Republican candidates and President Klobuchar had already been released. These showed mixed results, with Klobuchar ahead in some contests and behind in other, although there was a big percentage of undecideds (Except in the Palin matchup, which showed special polarization). Overall, President Klobuchar trailed a Generic Republican 43-39 in polling, which may reverse or not as the 2024 Election heats up in the coming months.
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User2736
SlippingJimmy
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« Reply #126 on: April 18, 2019, 11:33:54 pm »

What happened to this TL?
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alancia
Jr. Member
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Posts: 692
Argentina


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: 3.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: April 19, 2019, 12:18:58 am »


Writers block. Sad. This will probably continue, though... someday.
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