Crisis in Venezuela

[Skye]

Hi. The resident Venezuelan here.

This is the first time I've been genuinely happy and excited about the political situation in my country in years. Everyone is going nuts. For the first time in forever, hope seems to be around the corner.

Please just pray that everything goes well for my country.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/vladimirpadrino/status/1088185917410603008

Carefully worded tweet from Venezuela's Minister of Defense. Says the Military won't accept an "imposed" President, but didn't say who the "imposed" President is. Says the Military will defend Venezuela's Constitution and sovereignty. I wouldn't rule out a military coup now.

It is quite clear he is referring to Guaidó, and that he is throwing his support on Maduro.

What remains to be seen is if the rest of the military follows him.

[Skye]

Just what I needed, an scarlet-avatar user telling me I should be thankful that the military supports the nefarious regime that is the reason I left my country. Thrilling.

[Skye]

Just what I needed, an scarlet-avatar user telling me I should be thankful that the military supports the nefarious regime that is the reason I left my country. Thrilling.

I mean, you could argue that Maduro is somehow preferrable to a war in the same way that some believe Saddam or Gadaffi should have been left alone. Then again a war is an extremely unlikely scenario and even if it happened it wouldn't end up like Irak or Lybia.

Of course the ideal scenario is that the army takes control and ousts Maduro. (or that he steps down willingly but that's not going to happen)

Does he have much popular support? Because otherwise the army is the last thing standing before he ends up like Ceaucescu.

Unfortunately it doesn't seem Guiado's proclamation will amount to anything.

I do believe that a war would be absolutely terrible, and hopefully, it won't go to that. And what the opposition is betting on, is that the military kicks Maduro out thanks to international pressure and a real transition begins.

Maduro is by all measures unpopular. Polls in Venezuela are scarce and don't have that good of a reputation, but the last polls I remember had his approvals around the 20's. The military is almost entirely the reason he's still standing. I do hope he leaves without further confrontation.

[Skye]

Those Venezuelans who found out are not happy.

I saw it coming, but I had truly hoped she wouldn't take that stance. Sad. I'll no longer give her the benefit of doubt.

[Skye]

Good, time to oust the socialists

Fun fact: Guaidó belongs to a member party of the Socialist International.

Yes. A common misconception is that the Venezuelan opposition is right wing. They certainly are to the right of chavismo but that's about it. The opposition in Venezuela has more in common with the US leftists than many realize. AD, which was for a while the largest party in the country, is a social democrat party. VP, which is the party that Guaidó belongs to, is a center left party (though their ideology, as with many Venezuelan parties, is a bit murky since people here value more how they oppose chavismo rather than their actual ideological stances). VP certainly is socially liberal.

[Skye]

Capriles was also a soft left-of-center-ist right?

Correct. Capriles belongs to a Primero Justicia, a "centrist" party without a clearly defined ideology. Some might argue that PJ is a centre-right party since some of its members are conservatives, but Capriles, the face of the party, is a left of the center politician, and one of its most prominent Congressmen, Miguel Pizarro, is a leftist who, IIRC, openly admires Salvador Allende. Like I said, ideology doesn't exactly define the Venezuelan opposition parties these days.

[Skye]

Hi. Understand that every day that Maduro controls Venezuela is another day of suffering for the average Venezuelan. Please, at least consider that before posting pictures in support of Maduro while in the comfort of your room. I won't argue anymore.

Thanks to those who have expressed support to us in these dark times.

[Skye]

Hi. Understand that every day that Maduro controls Venezuela is another day of suffering for the average Venezuelan. Please, at least consider that before posting pictures in support of Maduro while in the comfort of your room. I won't argue anymore.

Thanks to those who have expressed support to us in these dark times.

Are you actually suggesting that people are not suffering in Venezuela?

No, I’m not. What I’m suggesting is that a Venezuelan who speaks English online likely isn’t a very good representative of the average Venezuelan and how they view things. That’s all.

I'm not poor, if that's what you mean by that. But I'm also a guy who, until November 2018, lived 25 years in Venezuela. I know what I'm talking about. Don't try to diminish my opinion because you believe I'm not an average Venezuelan.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1092355124385730560
https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1092350419601375233
Kurz also recognizes Guaidó unequivocally.

[Skye]

Just a quick bump to this thread to say that Venezuela is currently clocking at 50+ hours without electricity. Because chavismo.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/jguaido/status/1123161692219686912

Guaidó is in the Carlota Air Base, in eastern Caracas, surrounded by the military, and calling for action. Behind him is Leopoldo López, who was the nation's most notorious political prisoner.

I'm shaking.

[Skye]

Hi guys. I understand strong opinions for/against a US intervention in the country. That, however doesn't mean you have to support Maduro. Please understand that Venezuela under chavismo isn't a pretty place to live in. Every day, what you take for granted where you live, is a nightmare to obtain properly in Venezuela. Low salaries (It was about $6 a month last time I checked), failing basic services (electricity, running water, gas), food scarcity, insane crime rates, and absurd levels of corruption. Venezuelans deserve to live in a place where everyday routines don't look like battles to be fought and lost. We deserve to live in a place with a bright future, not a post-apocalyptic mess.

Like I said, you can be against a US military intervention (something that hasn't even happened yet), but don't you dare say you support Maduro just to spite the US.

[Skye]

Hi guys. I understand strong opinions for/against a US intervention in the country. That, however doesn't mean you have to support Maduro. Please understand that Venezuela under chavismo isn't a pretty place to live in. Every day, what you take for granted where you live, is a nightmare to obtain properly in Venezuela. Low salaries (It was about $6 a month last time I checked), failing basic services (electricity, running water, gas), food scarcity, insane crime rates, and absurd levels of corruption. Venezuelans deserve to live in a place where everyday routines don't look like battles to be fought and lost. We deserve to live in a place with a bright future, not a post-apocalyptic mess.

Like I said, you can be against a US military intervention (something that hasn't even happened yet), but don't you dare say you support Maduro just to spite the US.

I hope that one day Venezuela will be mostly free of corruption and tyranny, but that is not visible on the horizon. The fact of the matter is that the grouping that constitutes as the face of the opposition just wants to bring the country back to the 90s, and no one evidently wants that, with all the classism and poverty.

The best bet right now is for the Opposition to take the Mexican deal and try to work something out. Put someone that is willing for democracy but won’t privatize for the benefit of foreign powers. Tell me, are there any disillusioned ex-chavismo officials willing to take the reign, like Luisa Marvelia Ortega Díaz?

That wouldn't be the for the best. AMLO's deal, whatever it implies, isn't in the opposition's best interest.

Plenty of "disillusioned" chavistas are more than willing to take the reign: Luisa Ortega Díaz, former Interior Minister Miguel Rodríguez Torres and former PDVSA president Rafael Ramírez are the most notorious of them. The problem is that they are deeply distrusted by the population. The opposition base see them as opportunists who still support Chavez's ways and have no intention of repenting of the actions they did under Chávez, while the chavistas see them as traitors and are unwilling to forgive them. For now, it's unlikely that any ex-chavista ends up being the President or something of the sort.

[Skye]

Hi guys. I understand strong opinions for/against a US intervention in the country. That, however doesn't mean you have to support Maduro. Please understand that Venezuela under chavismo isn't a pretty place to live in. Every day, what you take for granted where you live, is a nightmare to obtain properly in Venezuela. Low salaries (It was about $6 a month last time I checked), failing basic services (electricity, running water, gas), food scarcity, insane crime rates, and absurd levels of corruption. Venezuelans deserve to live in a place where everyday routines don't look like battles to be fought and lost. We deserve to live in a place with a bright future, not a post-apocalyptic mess.

Like I said, you can be against a US military intervention (something that hasn't even happened yet), but don't you dare say you support Maduro just to spite the US.

I hope that one day Venezuela will be mostly free of corruption and tyranny, but that is not visible on the horizon. The fact of the matter is that the grouping that constitutes as the face of the opposition just wants to bring the country back to the 90s, and no one evidently wants that, with all the classism and poverty.

The best bet right now is for the Opposition to take the Mexican deal and try to work something out. Put someone that is willing for democracy but won’t privatize for the benefit of foreign powers. Tell me, are there any disillusioned ex-chavismo officials willing to take the reign, like Luisa Marvelia Ortega Díaz?

That wouldn't be the for the best. AMLO's deal, whatever it implies, isn't in the opposition's best interest.

Plenty of "disillusioned" chavistas are more than willing to take the reign: Luisa Ortega Díaz, former Interior Minister Miguel Rodríguez Torres and former PDVSA president Rafael Ramírez are the most notorious of them. The problem is that they are deeply distrusted by the population. The opposition base see them as opportunists who still support Chavez's ways and have no intention of repenting of the actions they did under Chávez, while the chavistas see them as traitors and are unwilling to forgive them. For now, it's unlikely that any ex-chavista ends up being the President or something of the sort.

The reality of the situation means that this is the Roundtable’s best bet to get something. Either go for a compromise or get quashed by Maduro militias, no?

It isn't as simple as "get squashed by Maduro's militias". The military has shown signs of fracture, given the recent developments. Even before that, Maduro did not dare to touch Guaidó because of threats from the US.

For that to happen, Maduro would have to successfully purge the military and take control of the situation. Only then, if they decide that the threats from the Trump administration are mere bluffs, they will move on Guaidó. But we'll have to wait and see what happens.

[Skye]

Guaidó's moves are very, very limited right now. He also has to battle an increasingly vocal segment of the population that argues that the only solution is a US military intervention, and blames him for not asking for it; which is probably why he made this statement. The WaPo published an article this week that Trump doesn't want a military intervention (obvs), so the US will probably continue their sanctions policy for now.