AL-SEN: It’s Tuberville

[Storr]

Hilarious Doug Jones ad that ran at halftime of the Bama/A&M game.

https://twitter.com/gifdsports/status/1312507819107655680?s=20

The best part of the ad was when they brought up how Tuberville only moved to Alabama 18 months ago. Relatedly, I'm a college football fan (of an ACC team, so take that information as you like) and I completely forgot about Tuberville's time at Texas Tech and Cincinnati. He went a combined 49-39, which is pretty average (with his best seasons being his first two at Cincinnati where he went 9-4 in both).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Hilarious Doug Jones ad that ran at halftime of the Bama/A&M game.

https://twitter.com/gifdsports/status/1312507819107655680?s=20

That ad is more #populist than Sherrod Brown or Steve Bullock.

[Pollster]

Knowing the religiosity of Alabama, the clip of Tuberville shouting "go to hell" is probably the most damaging part of this ad.

[MT Treasurer]

This shouldn’t surprise anyone (I know it will, though), but both parties' internal numbers are showing a closer race here than recent public polling has indicated.

In a state President Donald Trump carried with 60% of the vote in 2016, and where almost two-thirds of voters cast straight party-line ballots, both Democrats and Republicans say the race between Jones and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville will be close, despite Tuberville having a 15 percentage point lead in polls. The seat may be the GOP’s best pick-up opportunity as the party fights to defend other seats, including in Georgia and South Carolina, and maintain Senate control.

Jones has a massive financial advantage and seems to be trying his best to stage an under-the-radar comeback (obviously helped by the Democratic tidal wave/record Democratic enthusiasm):

But even with the odds stacked against him, Jones has outraised Tuberville by a wide margin. Neither candidate has done much campaigning, but strategists say Jones’ barrage of ads — 10 in September alone — shows the campaign is playing to win. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate the race as “leans Republican,” meaning they see it as competitive.

Alabama Democratic strategist Zac McCrary said Jones’s fundraising advantage has helped him be able to define Tuberville. Alabama voters don’t necessarily want a candidate as inexperienced or as tied to Trump as Tuberville, McCrary said. Republicans, on the other hand, say criticizing Trump likely won’t go over well given how popular the president is in the state.

“The 2017 conventional wisdom was no matter how bad of a candidate Roy Moore was, Democrats just couldn’t win a U.S. Senate race in Alabama,” McCrary said. “Some of those people are saying Democrats just can’t win reelection in a presidential election year. Jones still has a chance to go in there real strong and surprise people.”

Genius strategy from Tuberville's campaign here (not like Doug Jones' voting record/statements provide hilariously easy ad material or anything):

Tuberville’s only three ads have focused on his personality as a coach and how he supports veterans and Trump.

https://about.bgov.com/news/republicans-arent-writing-off-doug-jones-neither-is-jones/

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’ll be proud of Jones if he can get more than 40%

[MT Treasurer]

I’ll be proud of Jones if he can get more than 40%

You’re setting the bar ridiculously low. There’s no way Jones gets worse than 43%/44% in this environment against someone like Tuberville. It’ll probably be a single-digit race.

[One Term Floridian]

If Jones somehow wins this... that would make my November almost as much as Trump losing would

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/DougJonesHQ/status/1309556830876598278
Rip Jones not all heroes wear capes

Shameful. Hasta luego, loser

To the irony ore mine, stat!

[Alben Barkley]

Doug Jones = Real Life Atticus Finch (highest compliment you can give an Alabama lawyer)

"Real courage is when you know youre licked before you begin, but you begin anyway and see it through no matter what."

[Blair]

I wonder if some of the money wasted on McGrath could help Doug rn..

Jones has $8.7 million in cash on hand, compared to Tuberville’s $550,000, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission filings. A majority of his fundraising has come from large individual contributions, many from out-of-state. He raised $1.6 million from donors in California and $1.3 million from New York.

Jones has spent $9 million so far on advertising, according to Advertising Analytics, running ads blasting both Trump and Tuberville and focusing on the Birmingham and Mobile markets. The Democratic-aligned Duty and Honor PAC has also spent about $500,000 on ads for Jones.

https://about.bgov.com/news/republicans-arent-writing-off-doug-jones-neither-is-jones/

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Doesn’t seem like AL is all that ‘inelastic’ and ‘polarized’ in the private polling of the Alabama Democratic Party.

TUSCALOOSA. Ala. — Senator Doug Jones (D- Alabama) claimed the lead enjoyed by his opponent, former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville has nearly evaporated with less than three weeks remaining before election day citing a new poll he expected to be published in the coming days.[...]

Alabama Democratic Party chairman and State Representative Chris England (D - Tuscaloosa) told supporters the party's internal polling showed Jones polling within the margin of error.

https://abc3340.com/news/election/doug-jones-claims-senate-race-tightening-denies-biden-white-house-speculation

Yeah, maybe just a case of yet another losing campaign expressing unwarranted optimism, but I do think a lot of people are underestimating Jones even after 2017. It’s not an easy race by any means, but I’d be shocked if he lost by double digits in this environment. I’m expecting a margin similar to MO-SEN 2018 at this point.

Alabama is inelastic and polarized.. no amount of "internal polling" mainly used as a apparatus for fundraising, will change that electoral fact.


Point me towards a independent pollster which has shown this race within single digits.

[Indy Texas]

If Jones can lose respectably (no more than like 8 points) and not get Blanched, with his voting record the past three years, that will be an impressive performance.

[Left Wing]

https://twitter.com/DougJonesHQ/status/1320136358300667912

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DougJonesHQ/status/1320136358300667912

Who is this woman?

[Left Wing]

https://twitter.com/DougJonesHQ/status/1320136358300667912

Who is this woman?

It's Doug Jones' wife. It's a good strategy to use her to tell people he's a moderate on abortion. They need to get that across or else some people will never vote for him but it makes it an easier pill to swallow for pro-choice people if a woman is the one explaining his position. Safe R race but thought I would share this ad.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DougJonesHQ/status/1320136358300667912

Who is this woman?

It's Doug Jones' wife. It's a good strategy to use her to tell people he's a moderate on abortion. They need to get that across or else some people will never vote for him but it makes it an easier pill to swallow for pro-choice people if a woman is the one explaining his position. Safe R race but thought I would share this ad.

I see. To think that if Alabama were still as inclined to vote for downballot Democrats as it was in 1990, the year when Jones' mentor and former boss, Howell Heflin, won his last term in the Senate, Jones would be on his way to a landslide reelection against the undistinguished Tuberville. But instead, he's going to lose, for no other offense but that he has a D next to his name.

[Coastal Elitist]

I’ll be proud of Jones if he can get more than 40%

You’re setting the bar ridiculously low. There’s no way Jones gets worse than 43%/44% in this environment against someone like Tuberville. It’ll probably be a single-digit race.

lol it's like democrats just make up their internal polls, Jones couldn't even hit 40 he only got 39.7%

[Pericles]

I’ll be proud of Jones if he can get more than 40%

You’re setting the bar ridiculously low. There’s no way Jones gets worse than 43%/44% in this environment against someone like Tuberville. It’ll probably be a single-digit race.

lol it's like democrats just make up their internal polls, Jones couldn't even hit 40 he only got 39.7%

That was just IndyRep being a blowhard. He never learns.

[Coastal Elitist]

I’ll be proud of Jones if he can get more than 40%

You’re setting the bar ridiculously low. There’s no way Jones gets worse than 43%/44% in this environment against someone like Tuberville. It’ll probably be a single-digit race.

lol it's like democrats just make up their internal polls, Jones couldn't even hit 40 he only got 39.7%

That was just IndyRep being a blowhard. He never learns.

True. Still though Jones's internals showed a close race and I warned you about how bad internal polls are and for democrats they were really bad

[ElectionsGuy]

lol this forum consistently thought this race was closer than Colorado. It was never going to happen.

[MT Treasurer]

lol Pericles

That was just IndyRep being a blowhard. He never learns.

Projecting a little here, huh? "He never learns" is also incredibly ironic coming from someone with your record of ridiculously biased (in favor of Democrats) predictions and comments.

Anyway, I was pleasantly surprised that this race turned out to be a blowout. Red state voters have a nasty habit of getting conned by Democratic Senate candidates, glad it didn’t happen this year. In the kind of environment the polls/data points were forecasting, this race still would have been at least somewhat closer, however, and I don’t think GOP/Democratic strategists involved in both campaigns were lying when they said the race was much closer than public polling was showing at that time. You can mock me for predicting a (high) single-digit Tuberville win, but apparently their own internals didn’t indicate that the race was less competitive than CO. Either way, it’s always wiser to lower your expectations and take nothing for granted than to get complacent and assume that partisanship will always win out, especially in red states.

[Pericles]

lol Pericles

That was just IndyRep being a blowhard. He never learns.

Projecting a little here, huh? "He never learns" is also incredibly ironic coming from someone with your record of ridiculously biased (in favor of Democrats) predictions and comments.

Anyway, I was pleasantly surprised that this race turned out to be a blowout. Red state voters have a nasty habit of getting conned by Democratic Senate candidates, glad it didn’t happen this year. In the kind of environment the polls/data points were forecasting, this race still would have been at least somewhat closer, however, and I don’t think GOP/Democratic strategists involved in both campaigns were lying when they said the race was much closer than public polling was showing at that time. You can mock me for predicting a (high) single-digit Tuberville win, but apparently their own internals didn’t indicate that the race was less competitive than CO. Either way, it’s always wiser to lower your expectations and take nothing for granted than to get complacent and assume that partisanship will always win out, especially in red states.

Yes, I've made my some bad predictions, just as I've made some great ones. I'm not saying you're an idiot who gets everything wrong. I'm saying you're not as smart as you think you are-you always treat your predictions with 100% certainty and much, much less often are actually right. You should treat other posters and opinions with more respect.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs benefitted of the anti Russian candidate Tuberville, but Jones was gonna lose anyways

[Donerail]

Vandy has fired head coach Derek Mason. Current Senator-elect Tommy Tuberville could never figure out how to beat Vandy, and I'm sure they have some deep-pocketed alums who could put together a tempting offer for him. Would be an exciting opportunity to return to the SEC, and would require a special election in Alabama.