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  Talk Elections
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Could a White VRA district ever have to be drawn? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Could a White VRA district ever have to be drawn?  (Read 2137 times)
cvparty
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Posts: 1,773
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« on: January 18, 2019, 11:57:50 am »

To illustrate, I will present two different MS redistricting plans for the 2060s Map.



This map is the Democratic plan. It's clean, doesn't split any counties, and probably locks Republicans out of winning a seat in a D+8 state.

District 1 is the northern third of the state. It's 42% white and 47% black, 47% white and 47.4% black in VAP, went for the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2060 (a good Democratic year) by 20 points, and has a D+7 PVI.

District 2 is the middle third of the state. It's 30% white and 61% black, 34% white and 61% in VAP, went for the Democratic Presidential nominee by 33 points, and has a D+16 PVI. Clearly safely D.

District 3 is the kicker. It's cleanly drawn but probably locks out Republicans. It's 45% white and 40% black and 51% white to 41% black in VAP, so it could be called a white VRA district. However, it also went for the Democratic Presidential nominee by 9 points and is a D+1 district. It probably votes against white voter's candidate of choice, leaving a minority that is 39% of the state and 44% of the Voting Age Population with 0 districts.



And this map is the VRA plan proposed by the Republican minority in the legislature.

District 1 moves slightly to the left. It is 38% white and 53% black, and 42% white to 53% black in VAP. The Democratic presidential nominee carried it by 28 points. It is now a D+12 PVI district. There's an essentially 0% chance that a Republican could win this.

District 2 changes in shape but not partisanship. It is 30% white and 61% black, 34% white to 61% black in VAP, went for the Democratic Presidential nominee by 34 points, and is a D+16 PVI district.

District 3, then, becomes an ugly gerrymander aimed at giving Republicans one fairly safe district. It is 49% white and 35% black, 55% white to 36% black in VAP, went for the Republican Presidential nominee by 2 points, and is a R+4 PVI district. It isn't quite safe, but it's pretty close.

Is the second map required under the VRA?


where are u getting the pvis? or are you assuming blacks stay uniformly democratic for the next 40 years
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