2008: Michael Bloomberg (R) vs John Edwards

[NewYorkExpress]

Michael Bloomberg runs for the Republican nomination for President and wins.

John Edwards wins Iowa and South Carolina to knock out Barack Obama, and defeats Hillary Clinton with Ohio and Texas.

The Rielle Hunter scandal is picked up by the mainstream media shortly after the Republican National Convention.

With all this happening, who wins the election?

[S019]

John Edwards,
the GOP was toxic in 2008. After the Lehman crash, Reps could have written off any chance of winning. A moderate like McCain even lost states like Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina, which had not voted Democratic in decades. Bloomberg would have been tied to Bush just because of his party label. Edwards wins with 280-320 EVs, Edwards probably gets Cartered or Hoovered in 2012, the scandals would hang over him and in 2010 the GOP probably does even better (pick up NV, CO, and WA). So, because of underperformance a in 2008 and 2010 compared to OTL, Dems may not even have a Senate majority. Edwards is largely a lame duck in 2010-12. Then in 2012, without the GOP facing considerable headwinds, Edwards loses by a large margin. Of course, a Republican house probably votes to impeach him, whids adds more baggage to his ill-fated reelection bid.

2008 was one of the few elections Edwards could win with his scandals

[Agonized-Statism]

Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R-NY) / Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Fmr. Senator John Edwards (D-NC) / Congressman John Lewis (D-GA) ✓

Edwards would be more likely as a compromise candidate or something like that. Either way, no matter his personal scandals, the GOP would get destroyed, especially with a suit like Bloomberg at the helm.

[Chips]

John Edwards: 311 electoral votes
Michael Bloomberg: 227 electoral votes

Edwards ends up being a one-term president. Romney runs against him in 2012 and hits him on the scandals.

Mitt Romney: 317 electoral votes
President Edwards: 221 electoral votes

[bagelman]

The above seems reasonable. Without the scandals it would be a much bigger win than Obama '08, but you probably already knew that. Romney isn't the best at balancing the moderate wing of the party with the southern fried reactionary wing, but he's better at that than Bloomberg.