Dole 1996/Gore 2000 counties

[Arbitrage1980]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

I did not think it was that few, wow

Only 2 congressional districts went for McCain 08 and Obama 12: Staten Island and one of the south Florida districts.

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

I did not think it was that few, wow

Only 2 congressional districts went for McCain 08 and Obama 12: Staten Island and one of the south Florida districts.

Which one was it? Curbelo's former seat?

[lfromnj]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

I did not think it was that few, wow

Only 2 congressional districts went for McCain 08 and Obama 12: Staten Island and one of the south Florida districts.

Which one was it? Curbelo's former seat?

Neither in their current form. Obama won them both in 08. But the old FL IRL seat was one of them.

[darklordoftech]

Were Clinton-Bush voters really that common, or was it more a combination of people moving around, generational turnover, and Perot-Bush voters?

[SingingAnalyst]

Were Dole-Bush voters really that common, or was it more a combination of people moving around, generational turnover, and Perot-Bush voters?

Good question, as I have always felt that "swing" voters (both for and against the overall swing) were more common than most party analysts care to admit. If I had to throw out numbers, of those that voted in both 1996 and 2000:

Clinton-Gore: 42
Clinton-Bush: 5
Clinton-Nader: 2
Dole-Gore: 4
Dole-Bush: 37
Perot-Gore: 2
Perot-Bush: 6

So, 37% of those who voted both times were Dole-Bush voters.

[darklordoftech]

Were Dole-Bush voters really that common, or was it more a combination of people moving around, generational turnover, and Perot-Bush voters?

Good question, as I have always felt that "swing" voters (both for and against the overall swing) were more common than most party analysts care to admit. If I had to throw out numbers, of those that voted in both 1996 and 2000:

Clinton-Gore: 42
Clinton-Bush: 5
Clinton-Nader: 2
Dole-Gore: 4
Dole-Bush: 37
Perot-Gore: 2
Perot-Bush: 6

So, 37% of those who voted both times were Dole-Bush voters.

“Dole-Bush” was a typo. I meant, “Clinton-Bush”.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Were there any Clinton-Gore and/or Dole-Bush counties in which Gore did better in 2000 than Clinton did in 1996?

Plenty of them.

What were they?

Most of the counties that swung heavily to Gore from Clinton's 1996 margin were heavily populated urban/suburban counties (ex. King, WA; Los Angeles, CA; Fairfax, VA; DeKalb, GA; Clayton, GA; Bay Area counties; Philadelphia metro counties).

Number 1 in there was Russell County, Kansas, an otherwise random rural county that just so happened to be Doles home County.

[Calthrina950]

There are two counties that flipped from Dole to Gore- Charles County, Maryland, and Orange County, Florida.

It is astounding that there were so few Dole-Gore counties, given that 854 counties flipped from Clinton to Bush. 2000 locked us into the county map alignment that has persisted to the present day.

It's pretty amazing the national swing was only 8% considering how many counties switched, only 300 counties switched to Obama in 2008 when the swing was almost 10% from 2004-2008. The 1996-2000 swing really realigned the nation with major metro areas trending D and small towns trending R really hard relative to the national shift.

That much is true. Rural areas truly did become firmly Republican beginning in 2000 (and metro areas firmly Democratic). Obama would have won a clear majority of counties in 2008 if the swing had been more universal, like those prior to 2000 were. And unfortunately, it looks like this pattern, which has already lasted through five presidential elections, will remain in place, with further internal changes of course, for the foreseeable future, barring another realignment comparable to or greater than that of 2000.

I wonder what alienated rural America from the Democratic party in 1997-2000. Was it Republican suburbanites moving to more rural areas? Young people moving out? Generational turnover? The rise of Fox News? Kyoto Protocol?

Thinking about this further, it seems that the Monica Lewinsky scandal and Clinton's subsequent impeachment helped to alienate many rural, socially conservative voters from the Democratic Party. In 2000, George W. Bush ran as a "compassionate conservative", capitalizing on the desire from voters for a return of "normalcy" and scandal-free "civility" to the White House. And because he identified as a devout evangelical Christian and was a Southerner himself, he was able to appeal to those voters. Al Gore tried as best he could to distance himself from Clinton, but it didn't work, and his own views on climate change and energy only helped to seal the deal.

[538Electoral]

Charles MD and Orange FL.