GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[President Johnson]

Is she the best candidate to win the seat? It may be risky for her, because if she loses, she's probably done and can't run for governor again in 2022.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams reserved an ad for Fair Fight Action (her group pushing for electoral reform) to air during the Super Bowl. Will air in every GA market.

[InheritTheWind]

Is she the best candidate to win the seat? It may be risky for her, because if she loses, she's probably done and can't run for governor again in 2022.

I mean, she'd probably have bad odds for winning in 2022 anyways — especially if Trump loses re-election — as rematches typically don't go well for the loser. She's better off striking while the iron's hot.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams verbally acknowledged for the first time that she is considering the Senate seat during a Thank You Tour stop in Gwinnett County tonight.

https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/1095168617279352833

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1095114834612506624

[Calthrina950]

Is she the best candidate to win the seat? It may be risky for her, because if she loses, she's probably done and can't run for governor again in 2022.

Agreed. I think Perdue starts with an advantage, and this is a federal race. State elections, even in this polarizing time, are still somewhat less partisan than federal ones. And I think that Abrams's refusal to concede has probably cost her some goodwill among suburban voters.

[Zaybay]

What is with GA always getting these megathreads?

[Comrade Funk]

Is she the best candidate to win the seat? It may be risky for her, because if she loses, she's probably done and can't run for governor again in 2022.

Agreed. I think Perdue starts with an advantage, and this is a federal race. State elections, even in this polarizing time, are still somewhat less partisan than federal ones. And I think that Abrams's refusal to concede has probably cost her some goodwill among suburban voters.

Or maybe people realize the election was rigged and these mythical white suburban voters angry about her lack of a concession are really actually angry about destroyed voter rolls?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What is with GA always getting these megathreads?

Because we're a fascinating state, of course.

[Oryxslayer]

What is with GA always getting these megathreads?

Because we're a fascinating state, of course.

Your just being peachy

[Del Tachi]

What is with GA always getting these megathreads?

Because we have quite a few dedicated GA posters

Anyway, on topic, Abrams will lose spectacularly in 2020 because David Perdue has more of an established connection to suburban Republicans than Brian Kemp did in 2018, and Perdue can count on presidential turnout in a year where Trump will be on the ballot (as opposed to the more D-friendly demographics in 2018)

[Calthrina950]

Is she the best candidate to win the seat? It may be risky for her, because if she loses, she's probably done and can't run for governor again in 2022.

Agreed. I think Perdue starts with an advantage, and this is a federal race. State elections, even in this polarizing time, are still somewhat less partisan than federal ones. And I think that Abrams's refusal to concede has probably cost her some goodwill among suburban voters.

Or maybe people realize the election was rigged and these mythical white suburban voters angry about her lack of a concession are really actually angry about destroyed voter rolls?

A rigged election.......Of course.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What is with GA always getting these megathreads?

Because we're a fascinating state, of course.

Several responses to Zaybay and no one mentions the word "DeleGAtion".

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What is with GA always getting these megathreads?

Because we have quite a few dedicated GA posters

Anyway, on topic, Abrams will lose spectacularly in 2020 because David Perdue has more of an established connection to suburban Republicans than Brian Kemp did in 2018, and Perdue can count on presidential turnout in a year where Trump will be on the ballot (as opposed to the more D-friendly demographics in 2018)

Suburban women will surely love Pushy Perdue who hid from sexual assault survivors in a bathroom

[Rookie Yinzer]

Anyway, on topic, Abrams will lose spectacularly in 2020 because David Perdue has more of an established connection to suburban Republicans than Brian Kemp did in 2018, and Perdue can count on presidential turnout in a year where Trump will be on the ballot (as opposed to the more D-friendly demographics in 2018)

Uh...no. Trump being on the ballot doesn't help Purdue at all. The bottom is going to continue to fall out across the Metro. Abrams did worse than Hillary in red rural Georgia (where the GOP is maxed out and losing population) and still continued to close the deficit due to huge swings in the Metro. Not to mention voters under the age of 45 (where Abrams absolutely obliterated Kemp) will make up a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2018. This race is a toss up.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, seems like a lot of Republicans/Atlas posters are in denial about Georgia's rapid trend to the left. I really don’t buy that Perdue will significantly outperform Trump in places like Cobb or Gwinnett, and if he wins it won’t be with more than 51%. This race is a pure Toss-up and certainly more likely to flip than IA.

[Xing]

Considering how close Abrams came in 2018, she shouldn't be written off if the Democratic candidate seriously campaigns in Georgia in the presidential race.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yeah, seems like a lot of Republicans/Atlas posters are in denial about Georgia's rapid trend to the left. I really don’t buy that Perdue will significantly outperform Trump in places like Cobb or Gwinnett, and if he wins it won’t be with more than 51%. This race is a pure Toss-up and certainly more likely to flip than IA.

This. GOP couldn’t break past 52% in a low turnout runoff for Public Service Comissioner. LOL. A high profile, highly nationalized race with a liberal stalwart like Abrams in the race? It’s going down to the last vote.

House Speaker Ralston knows what the deal is:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1095334627487563776

[MT Treasurer]

This. GOP couldn’t break past 52% in a low turnout runoff for Public Service Comissioner. LOL.

Raffensperger won Cobb and only lost Gwinnett by 1 and still only won by 4 points statewide, so that election was a rather daunting sign for the GA GOP. Even Abrams only lost by 1 statewide while doing several points worse than Clinton in rural GA.

[Del Tachi]

There's no reason to think Perdue will not be able to improve on Kemp's performance in Metro ATL during 2020.  153k votes for Trump in Cobb in 2016, compared with 138k for Kemp in 2018.  Similar stories in Gwinnett, Fulton, Bartow, etc.  Trump being on the ballot will also bring out more deplorables in the exurbs and rural GA to vote for him, whereas Democratic-friendly turnout in 2018 means Abrams doesn't have a lot of room to grow in places where she was already running an impeccable turnout machine (Metro ATL).

Unless the Dem nominee is winning Georgia handily on election night, Perdue is winning.  He's an incumbent with suburban/ITP cred running against a loser retread.  It's incredibly hard to see Abrams winning while Trump wins as well, and I'd say Trump's odds of winning are still much better than even.   

Also, how do our "Red Georgia" hacks square the fact that he has a 45% approval rating, whereas Kemp and Trump lag significantly behind that number?  That's a function of Perdue's increased support in the Atlanta suburbs.

[Adam Griffin]

I really would prefer an Abrams rematch for Governor as opposed to this.

Anyway, Perdue's appeal is that he is basically Generic R. Of course he won't do as well as he did in 2014 in the metro (even Isakson's 2016 performance in some metro areas - despite winning statewide by 14 - should have been worrisome for the GAGOP), but he'll have to try to do worse than Kemp.

The conversation about how Abrams' post-election actions might hurt her with voters isn't concerning because it'd take Democrats or even long-term independents off the table for her, but rather, because the types who would be "offended" by that are the same people who voted Perdue/Deal/Isakson/Abrams. And GA's electorate is not exactly very likely to change much over the next year and a half - the midterm was basically a presidential (with ~95% of the 2016 turnout); a betting man would bank on the 2020 electorate along demographic lines looking very, very similar to 2018's.

Anyway, I think running a repeat election in GA against a far less offensive incumbent (who obviously has supporters who voted for you as well) two years out, in a more naturally polarized environment and under the same demographics (which means you're required to win many of those same former Republicans once again, who also have voted for your opponent) isn't the best idea and starts you off in a naturally worse position than in 2018.

[Alabama_Indy10]

^i don’t see how Perdue is any stronger than a generic R. He’s only won one race. How or why would he have this supposed credibility with suburban voters (let’s put aside the fact that those voters are most likely perma Dems rather than swing voters at this point)

Perdue is generic R. And that is his strength.

[MassBlueDog]

Why isn't Michelle Nunn getting any consideration?  Was she a bad candidate?

[S019]

Michelle Nunn runs a humanitarian nonprofit now. I do not think she wants to leave her job. Also GA Dems have realized that nominating white moderates does not allow them to tap into the Atlanta vote as well. Nunn would be a good candidate, but Abrams is stronger. Also rematches usually end badly (See: WI 2016 (Russ Feingold's double digits lead evaporating and Feingold losing by 3 percentage points))

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is so cringe. These people are OBSESSED.

https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/1105142337511006208

[Roll Roons]

This is so cringe. These people are OBSESSED.

https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/1105142337511006208

This is so bad it's hilarious. Who is honestly paid to come up with these things?