GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[Storr]

Terry probably have sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

Thats a shame, I think the ATL/outstate combo would have played well.

Yeah, Warnock looks really strong for the other seat, but I still can't imagine Ossoff accomplishing much of anything outside of Atlanta in the GE.   

Hopefully someone strong like Warnock comes out of the woodwork for this race. All of these current candidates are underwhelming.

[Skill and Chance]

Terry probably have sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

Thats a shame, I think the ATL/outstate combo would have played well.

Yeah, Warnock looks really strong for the other seat, but I still can't imagine Ossoff accomplishing much of anything outside of Atlanta in the GE.   

Hopefully someone strong like Warnock comes out of the woodwork for this race. All of these current candidates are underwhelming.

Tomlinson seemed promising in the same way the 2018 Trump district House candidates were promising.  Why is her campaign flopping so hard?

[Heebie Jeebie]

Jesus.  I've been making amonthly donation to Tomlinson since her campaign officially started, but given these numbers I think I'll stop. Why continue flushing my money down the crapper?

[Storr]

Terry probably have sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

Thats a shame, I think the ATL/outstate combo would have played well.

Yeah, Warnock looks really strong for the other seat, but I still can't imagine Ossoff accomplishing much of anything outside of Atlanta in the GE.   

Hopefully someone strong like Warnock comes out of the woodwork for this race. All of these current candidates are underwhelming.

Tomlinson seemed promising in the same way the 2018 Trump district House candidates were promising.  Why is her campaign flopping so hard?

I'll preface this with the fact that I don't know all that much about Georgia politics. But, I have seen a few comments (mostly on atlas, so take that with a grain of salt) that blame her so far lackluster campaign on Tomlinson's lack of connections with Democrats in the Atlanta area (the stronghold of the state's Democratic party, and thus where most of the donors are).

[Frenchrepublican]

Terry probably had sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

You're dreaming

[QAnonKelly]

I think the lesson to be learned from Tomlinson is that a white dem that runs statewide should be Atlanta based.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think the lesson to be learned from Tomlinson is that a white dem that runs statewide should be Atlanta based.

Yeah, the Columbus metro area is tiny in comparison to Atlanta.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Terry probably had sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

You're dreaming

I'm dreaming by saying Warnock is going to be the stronger of the two Senate candidates? um, ok.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Has Abrams offered an endorsement in this race?  What about McBath?  Michelle Nunn?  Any chance one of these women would throw her support to Tomlinson?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Has Abrams offered an endorsement in this race?  What about McBath?  Michelle Nunn?  Any chance one of these women would throw her support to Tomlinson?

No. Tomlinson’s campaign is a mess. She is going to have win it on her own.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1227636310107656192

Roy Moore is doubtless very disappointed that he's not hitting the teens.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1227636310107656192

Roy Moore is doubtless very disappointed that he's not hitting the teens.

I mean that’s heartening for the good of the republic (not so much for the FF Doug Jones) but this is the Georgia Senate megathread...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1227636310107656192
Roy Moore is doubtless very disappointed that he's not hitting the teens.

I mean that’s heartening for the good of the republic (not so much for the FF Doug Jones) but this is the Georgia Senate megathread...

They're not supposed to know we're annexing Alabama.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/mbaram/status/1240844546008920065

This thread has been quiet for a while now and I thought it was relevant although Loeffler's understandably been receiving more coverage on the entire situation.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mbaram/status/1240844546008920065

This thread has been quiet for a while now and I thought it was relevant although Loeffler's understandably been receiving more coverage on the entire situation.

WTF is up with Georgia Senators & insider trading?

[SnowLabrador]

Perdue will win 55-44.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perdue will win 55-44.

I think he'll win, but it will be a lot closer than that.  Maybe 52-47.

[Adam Griffin]

Perdue will win 55-44.

Only way Perdue wins by 10 is if Trump wins GA by 7-8. Barring major scandals (I don't think insider trading qualifies in GA, frankly) he won't outperform Trump by more than 2-3 points.

[Bidenworth2020]

Perdue will win 55-44.

Only way Perdue wins by 10 is if Trump wins GA by 7-8. Barring major scandals (I don't think insider trading qualifies in GA, frankly) he won't outperform Trump by more than 2-3 points.

On the flip side, do you buy into the "Georgia is a tossup in 2020" narrative?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perdue will win 55-44.

Only way Perdue wins by 10 is if Trump wins GA by 7-8. Barring major scandals (I don't think insider trading qualifies in GA, frankly) he won't outperform Trump by more than 2-3 points.

On the flip side, do you buy into the "Georgia is a tossup in 2020" narrative?

Tossup, no. Competitive, yes. I'll call it Lean R - meaning that I expect Trump to win the state, but would not be surprised if Biden takes it as part of a significant overall win.

[Bidenworth2020]

Perdue will win 55-44.

Only way Perdue wins by 10 is if Trump wins GA by 7-8. Barring major scandals (I don't think insider trading qualifies in GA, frankly) he won't outperform Trump by more than 2-3 points.

On the flip side, do you buy into the "Georgia is a tossup in 2020" narrative?

Tossup, no. Competitive, yes. I'll call it Lean R - meaning that I expect Trump to win the state, but would not be surprised if Biden takes it as part of a significant overall win.

One thing I am curious about is how he does in rural areas compared to Abrams-- she did significantly worse than even Hillary did in rural areas. Can Biden do a bit better here, or are the trends too strong? If he can, that could make a big difference in a close race.

[Adam Griffin]

Perdue will win 55-44.

Only way Perdue wins by 10 is if Trump wins GA by 7-8. Barring major scandals (I don't think insider trading qualifies in GA, frankly) he won't outperform Trump by more than 2-3 points.

On the flip side, do you buy into the "Georgia is a tossup in 2020" narrative?

Tossup, no. Competitive, yes. I'll call it Lean R - meaning that I expect Trump to win the state, but would not be surprised if Biden takes it as part of a significant overall win.

One thing I am curious about is how he does in rural areas compared to Abrams-- she did significantly worse than even Hillary did in rural areas. Can Biden do a bit better here, or are the trends too strong? If he can, that could make a big difference in a close race.

Margin-wise, Biden will in all likelihood do worse than Clinton in several dozen counties. This will be due primarily to a loss of (black) population, but trends will play a minor role as well. Of course, all of these counties combined probably won't be more than 10-15% of the state's vote, and quite a number of them will only be tiny swings.

I don't see Biden doing worse than Clinton in as many places as Clinton did worse than Obama (or Abrams worse than Carter). Setting aside the counties where we are losing both population and a disproportionate number of Democratic voters, there is a hard mathematical floor in many places we're now hitting. There's still varying amounts of room for loss in many counties, but in over a third of GA's counties, we had white voters in 2018 voting GOP at higher percentages than black voters voting Democratic.

To Abrams' credit, while it's true she did consistently worse than Clinton in the vast majority of counties, it was only by 1-2 points in most places. You could argue that a favorable Democratic midterm makes that quite embarrassing, but you can also argue that an inelastic state where strong trends of polarization have been raging mitigated any bounce in rural areas. If you want to criticize Abrams performance in rural GA, it'd be much better to compare her performance to Carter's in 2014 than Clinton's in 2016. Abrams lost 3 points in the statewide margin from the counties where she did worse than Carter; enough to cost her the Governorship and mirror-reverse the actual result (50.2% Abrams, 48.8% Kemp).

[Bidenworth2020]

Perdue will win 55-44.

Only way Perdue wins by 10 is if Trump wins GA by 7-8. Barring major scandals (I don't think insider trading qualifies in GA, frankly) he won't outperform Trump by more than 2-3 points.

On the flip side, do you buy into the "Georgia is a tossup in 2020" narrative?

Tossup, no. Competitive, yes. I'll call it Lean R - meaning that I expect Trump to win the state, but would not be surprised if Biden takes it as part of a significant overall win.

One thing I am curious about is how he does in rural areas compared to Abrams-- she did significantly worse than even Hillary did in rural areas. Can Biden do a bit better here, or are the trends too strong? If he can, that could make a big difference in a close race.

Margin-wise, Biden will in all likelihood do worse than Clinton in several dozen counties. This will be due primarily to a loss of (black) population, but trends will play a minor role as well. Of course, all of these counties combined probably won't be more than 10-15% of the state's vote, and quite a number of them will only be tiny swings.

I don't see Biden doing worse than Clinton in as many places as Clinton did worse than Obama (or Abrams worse than Carter). Setting aside the counties where we are losing both population and a disproportionate number of Democratic voters, there is a hard mathematical floor in many places we're now hitting. There's still varying amounts of room for loss in many counties, but in over a third of GA's counties, we had white voters in 2018 voting GOP at higher percentages than black voters voting Democratic.

To Abrams' credit, while it's true she did consistently worse than Clinton in the vast majority of counties, it was only by 1-2 points in most places. You could argue that a favorable Democratic midterm makes that quite embarrassing, but you can also argue that an inelastic state where strong trends of polarization have been raging mitigated any bounce in rural areas. If you want to criticize Abrams performance in rural GA, it'd be much better to compare her performance to Carter's in 2014 than Clinton's in 2016. Abrams lost 3 points in the statewide margin from the counties where she did worse than Carter; enough to cost her the Governorship and mirror-reverse the actual result (50.2% Abrams, 48.8% Kemp).

The reason I personally am hesitant to make that comparison is because Carter's performance in those areas was simply unattainable. Perhaps it was due to the Carter name, but regardless, there was never a chance that Abrams would be able to keep Kemp under 70% in most of Southwest Georgia like Carter did. One comparison that might be more interesting, although also outdated, would be 2012 President -> 2018 Governor.

[IceSpear]

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

[DaWN]

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

'Totally bombed' isn't entirely fair I don't think. They're hardly a-listers but it's not even as bad as in Texas for instance. And of course, the GOP have thrown the Dems a lifeline with a nice little intraparty squabble. I can't see any reason Ossoff and A.R. Andom-Pastor will under-perform Biden significantly because of that.