Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December

[parochial boy]

Oh, that's quite a tricky question actually. If by "that kind of Social Democratic party" you mean Third-Wayist, then absolutely not. They are one of (arguably the most) left wing of Europe's traditional Soc-Dem parties. For instance, their party progamme still commits them to "ovecoming capitalism", have supported a national salary cap, and currently support a pretty radical wealth tax. But, having said that, the core of their electorate is what gets called the "Sociocultural specialists" (ie teachers, nurses and the like), and they only do slightly better than average with "traditional" working class voter (although a big complicating factor is that the majority of the "traditional working class" are in fact not Swiss and don't have the right to vote).

Having said that though it is worth relativising as the PS were always relatively weak with the working class - even at their height, they got abour 45% of the working class vote. This being a legacy of three main factors: 1. The role of the Christian Democrats in catholic cantons; 2. The tradition of municipal autonomy, especially in German Switzerland (communes are responsible for welfare, for example), which leads to  a suspicion of "centralist" Socialism; 3. The way that the industrial revolution happened in Switzerland, which was mainly in smaller towns and villages and very paternatlistic in nature.

The other factor is, in contrast to other Soc Dem parties, the PS's working class voter base crashed much earlier in Switzerland: in the 1970s/80s (for familiar reasons, cf the point about foreigners, as well as the influence of the Soixante-huitards and deindustrialisation, especially in Ostschweiz.). Since then, they have remained more or less stable by holding on to that core of "Sociocultural specialists" and remaining loyalist working class vote (augmented by newly naturalised immigrants) by, probably correctly from a tactical point of view, taking a straightforward "left on everything" approach - be it immigration, women's equality or your traditional Socialist welfare state, strong public sector, anti-liberal fare (knowing full well that is exactly the kind of politics that, um, teachers and nurses, and increasingly people living in urban areas, tend to appreciate).

With that in mind, the PS vote among working class voters in French Switzerland has held up far more strongly than in German Switzerland, which you can basically see by looking at any electoral map - the industrial regions of German Switzerland (the lower Aare valley, Zürcher Unterland and Ostschweiz) vote uniformly UDC/SVP; whereas industrial Romandie (essentially the entire Jura mountain range from Geneva to Jura) still gets coloured in PS pink. The kind of basic reason for this is that working class voters in Romandie tend to be fairly socially liberal. For example, every district in the Jurassic arc voted against limiting mass immigration in 2014 (except the Val de Travers in Neuchâtel, which is entirely rural; and the Jura Bernois, which has its own very peculiar set of circumstances that I won't go into because I am already waffling on too much). Likewise the Val-de-Travers (which is where absinthe was invented, maybe there's a link?) and the Jura Bernois were also the only places in the region that voted to ban minarets by more than the national average. Even quintessentially working class areas like the Franches-Montagnes in Jura rejected the ban.

There are a set of reasons, both historical and rooted in more recent developments, as to why Romandie, and especially the Jura, is more left wing across the board, both Socially and Economically. The jist is down to there being less traditional "communal autonomy" and suspicion of The State, far more connection to the rest of Europe, a more antagonistic industrialisation, a more transient and urban population; and more recently, a cultural and economic anxiety about the Germans where part of the response was a self-conscious "we're not like them" progressive regional identity (it also has a higher rate of university attendance, more people on welfare and more people working in the public sector; although those are all chicken and egg factors, they do correlate to voting for the left). Jura has a whole extra dimension around the separatist conflict which led to the new canton moving left, while the Jura Bernois moved right. Getting back to the original point though the PS hold up unusually well amongst working class voters in the Jura for that reason.

[parochial boy]

Lots more cantonal polling coming out over the past couple of days from Sotomo.

In Thurgau, just a Ständerat poll that I've seen that has CVP's Brigitte Häberli and SVP's Jakob Stark easily re-elected. So no change there

In Zug also just a Ständerat one with a CVP-SVP duo being elected; implying the FDP might lose their existing seat.

In St Gallen, Nationalrat scenario looks like this:


I can't be bothered to do the maths, but should mean Greens and GLP gaining and CVP and FDP losing a seat each. Greens & SP are linked, as are CVP and BDP, but everyone else seems to be going alone.

In the Ständerat, they've got Benedict Würth (41%) of the CVP and Paul Rechsteiner (39%) of the SP taking the top spots, with a small gap to SVP's Büchel on 35%. Rechsteiner is actually a fairly solid leftwinger, so it completely baffles me as to how he managed to get elected in St Gallen in the first place. SG returning its CVP-SP duo would mean it retaining one of the most left wing Ständerat delegations in the country, which is really pretty hillarious.

Finally Baselland has a Nationalrat poll as follows


Unlikely to lead to seat changes, but 40% for the left in a Swiss-German canton, wow.

While their Ständerat poll has FDP's Schneeberger on 37% in front of the Greens Graf (29%) and SP's Schneeberger (27,8%). Assuming, one of the two Red-Green candidates has the sense to drop out in the second round, it should give them a shot at keeping the outgoing Claude Janiak's seat.

All in all, this is starting to look pretty dreadful for the FDP. As much as the SP could be heading towards a slight fall, they can console themselves with the big Green surge that could end up benefitting them through list connections. For the FDP, they're dropping pretty consistently in these polls now, enough that some alarm bells should be ringing.

[parochial boy]

Another update from the cantons

Geneva
Starting with my beloved home canton, probably the most sui generis of all cantons, both culturally and in its voting habits. Typically, its politics are described as “polarised”. It is the old bastion of the communist Parti du Travail¸ and to this day has the country’s most left wing PS and Green local parties; but at the same time, has a substantial economic liberal banker sentiment; and a somewhat unique propensity towards what might best be called “Woke Xenophobia”. The canton is painstakingly multicultural, inclusive, anti-racist and anti-sexist. Unless, of course, you happen to come from France, in which case you are lower than vermin.

Geneva’s Conseil National delegation currently consists of 3 – PLR; 3 – PS; 2 – UDC; and 1 seat each for the Greens, PDC and MCG. The canton, traditionally the left’s strongest, has actually followed the most pronounced right-wing shift of any canton in recent years; with the left wing parties dropping in support at each election, from winning a majority of the vote in 1995 to just 37% in 2015. It’s probably a little easy to overstate the trend, as much of it is down to the collapse of the PdT’s contestataire vote and the emergence of both the UDC and MCG, bearing also in mind that the 90s were something of an aberration as they came after the collapse of a different far right party, Vigilance.

In the race for the large chamber this year, Geneva has gained a 12th seat, thanks to demographic growth, although the way things fall is going to be hard to predict.

The mainstream right PLR-PDC alliance has been renewed, despite reluctance to do so on the part of the PDC, who are well to the left of, but also fear that they aren’t distinguishable from their Liberal allies. 12 months ago, the expectations were that the PLR would make massive gains, but a series of scandals has hit both of the centre right parties. First up was the ongoing Maudet affair, over the “free” holiday the PLR ex-president of the canton took to the Abu Dhabi grand-prix, followed by the totally convenient awarding of various tenders in Geneva airport to an Abu Dhabi based company. This was followed by PDC mayor of Geneva Guillaume Barazzone running into a protracted expenses scandals, and in recent weeks, an affair involving gifts given by the Manotel hotel chain to Serge Dal Busco, another PDC cantonal minister (although neither have led to quite the level of outrage as the Maudet affair, and the PDC actually feel pretty confident ahead of the 20th). The upshot is, at this point it is anybody’s guess as to whether these scandals overcome the previous good momentum that the PLR had.

On the far right, both the UDC and MCG are still reeling from the disasters they experienced at the cantonal elections. Much of this is to do with a relative relaxing of the frontalier situation, as the cantonal government has finally decided to take action over the more obvious problems it had created. The MCG are also suffering from the antics of Eric Stauffer; point being that, although the two parties have renewed their apparentment, it seems highly likely they’ll lose one of the three seats they currently share, almost certainly Roger Golay of the MCG’s.

The centre parties suffer from a lack of relevance in the canton. The PEV and GreenLiberals have apparented, but excluded the PBD over their decision to present a list headed by Éric Stauffer. I go on about Stauffer, the ex-president of the MCG, and basically a living, breathing stereotype of a genevois, complete with the sort of accent that really died out in the 1990s. Over the course of the last decade, he has successfully alienated just about everyone he has ever been an ally of, and his unique brand of loudmouthed whining is understandably offputting to respectable centrists. Kudos for otherwise putting the irrelevant Geneva PBD on the map though, and he might take a couple of percent of the UDC-MCG vote.

Finally, the left have formed a big apparentment between the PS, Greens and “Ensemble à Gauche” (an alliance of of the Trotskyite SolidaritéS and the PdT, who have the objective of winning back a seat for the far left). As everywhere, the Greens are confident of a big surge in what is natural home turf for them; but the left as a whole is hopeful of re-creating the big surge of the the cantonal’s last year, where they won their best collective result since 2001.

The two Conseil des États seats are currently held by the Greens and PS, although both are up for grabs this year as Liliane Maury Pasquier (PS) and Robert Cramer (Greens) are both stepping down.

The Greens and PS are hoping to regain the two seats by presenting two MP’s, Carlo Sommaruga (PS) and Lisa Mazzone (Greens). Mazzone in particular has a strong media profile, although is a very solid and occasionally controversial left winger. Running against them is the PLR's Hugues Hiltpold. At the moment, it is probably anyone’s guess as to which two of the three gets elected.

In Vaud
Currently, the PLR and PS have 5 seats each, the UDC have 4, Greens 2 and GreenLiberals and PDC one each. Like Geneva, demographic growth means Vaud gains a seat, up to 19 this time round.

In this case, the Greens are all but guaranteed at least one new seat as they would have won the 19th based on 2015 results, even before the surge. Such a surge could be especially pronounced in Vaud, home of the self-proclaimed “green capital” that is the progressive bastion Lausanne. As (almost) everywhere, the left parties have connected their lists, so that Green gains should at least make up for PS losses; especially in light of the solid election of Rebecca Ruiz to the cantonal executive earlier in the year. The alliance also includes a radical left comprised of Ensemble à Gauche and a separate (but sous-apparentée) POP list – the POP being the local name of the Parti du Travail – who have the goal of winning back a seat for the radical left.

On the right, the UDC and PLR have decided not to connect lists after the debacle in the special election won easily by Ruiz – the PLR feel in particular that the UDC link is not good for their brand in a usually open-minded and progressive canton. This might help them in popular vote terms, and they expect to surge as elsewhere in Romandie, but could be costly in terms of seats.

On the Centre, apparentements have not really worked out either. The PDC are going with the PEV and PBD, which may save Claude Béglé’s seat even despite his weird outburst about North Korea earlier this year. The PVL are only apparented with the Pirate Party. They win the seat largely on the back of the popularity of Isabelle Chevalley, a figure who is very definitely on the political right, in contrast to where the rest of the party is these days.

In the Conseil des États the two seats are currently shared by the PS and PLR; with the PS’s Géraldine Savary standing down in the light of a scandal over political donations made by the president of the pharma company Ferring. Chosen to replace Savary is Ada Marra, who is running on a joint list with the Greens Adèle Thorens, another figure with a strong profile. The objective of the dual ticket is to win back the seond seat, lost by the Greens Luc Recordon in 2015.

In other news there was a minor controversy when the UDC aligned Comité d’Eggerkingen put up posters accusing the FDP of not wanting to tackle radical islamism; the FDP complained and the posters got taken down; but another interesting instance of the UDC attacking their own allies.

There were debates between the party presidents in both French and German. I didn’t watch the French one as it was on a Monday night, and gave up with the German one because only Christian Levrat had the decency to speak in proper German and I could barely understand what the others were talking about.

Finally, a poll of Solothurn that looks dreadful for the FDP again, numbers are
SVP – 28.2% (-0.6%)
SP – 19.7% (-0.3%)
FDP – 17.9% (-3.3%)
CVP – 14.2% (-0.6%)
Greens – 8.4% (+2.8%)
GLP – 6.4% (+2.9%)
BDP and EVP irrelevant

Interesting though, that we’ve had polls on basically every German speaking canton, but nothing except Valais from Romandie. Tamedia being really transparent about which part of the country they care about most here, lol.

[parochial boy]

And here we are, Sotomo's last national poll; done in tandem with the SSR/SRG. Seeming to confirm that PLR drop while the Green surge goes on and on.



Also by language region, in German Switzerland it goes
SVP - 30.5% (-2.4%)
SP - 17.9% (-0.4%)
FDP - 12.6% (-1.6%)
Greens - 10.2% (+3.5%)
CVP - 9.8% (-0.7%)
GLP - 8.8% (+3.3%)
BDP - 3.6% (-1.6%)

and in French Switzerland
PLR - 22.8% (+0.3%)
PS -  19.8% (-1.6%)
UDC - 18.5% (-2.3%)
Greens - 13.7% (+4.5%)
PDC - 12.5% (-1.4%)
PVL - 3.6% (+1.1%)
PBD - basically zero

This is the first poll a while that has the red-green gains in Romandie matching German Switzerland; which I'm a little bit scpetical of as everything up until now in terms of cantonal elections and polling suggests that German Switzerland would be trending left relative to Romandie (the other factor being the far left, who are relevant in French Switzerland in a way that they aren't over the Röstigraben, and haven't been mentioned in the poll)

[parochial boy]

teehee, nice one Juso, almost fooled me.

Definitely more honest than what they've been putting on their real posters.

[Mr. Illini]

Awesome posts, keep them up! Will be following along as we approach the 20th and after.

[parochial boy]

Thanks!

Here's some tracking of turnout in some of the larger cities and towns (and Aarau) as of yesterday - usually 80% of ballots are cast by post, so for all intents and purposes, most people are voting at the moment


Ignoring the, um, rather dubious maths on some of the changes; it does look like we are heading towards a turnout over 50%, which would be the first time it happens since 1975. Thank you Greta!

The big drop in Geneva is because online voting was available 2015, but isn't this year because the voting system failed a security audit.

[parochial boy]

And.. it may be happening. According to the Sonntags Zeitung, the Greens and GreenLiberals are planning on launching a joint bid for a Federal Council seat; with either the Greens Bastien Girod or Regula Rytz; or GLP's Tiana Moser as potential candidates.

The idea at the moment is to target Ignacio Cassis's seat; the PLR Federal Councilor is unpopular (and seen as in the pockets of the health insurance lobby); and the two ecologist parties point out that their combined score is higher than the PLR's according to recent polling.

In terms of how likely this is, the PS will be on board (obviously), but the success of the plan relies on how receptive the PDC are - and whether the ecologists can agree on a candidate acceptable to the centre and able to take on the right.

[parochial boy]

Moving back across the linguistic border to look at what might happen in the country’s two biggest cantons.

Bern
Home to the capital, one of the most left wing cities in the country; the industrial watchmaking strongholds and francophone minorities in the north; and the rural, conservative (and often surprisingly religious) heartlands and tourist paradises in the Emmental and the Berner Oberland. A traditional SVP heartland, going back to when it was the old Bauern-Gewerebe und Bürgerpartei (Farmers', artisans' and citizens' party), it maintained a moderate wing of the SVP even throughout the Blocher era, until Federal Councillor Samuel Schmid quit the party to join Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf’s newly formed breakaway, the BDP, in 2008, as a result of which Bern is one of the few cantons where the centrist formation can realistically hope to win seats.

Bern’s seats are currently divided as SVP – 9; SP – 6; BDP – 3; FDP – 2; Greens – 2; GLP – 2; EVP – 1; while it’s Ständerat seats are shared by the SP and BDP.

Due to its slow demographic growth, Bern has lost a seat this year, down to 24. This has the principal impact of making it harder for the smaller parties to keep or win their seats; in particular Marianne Streiff of the EVP’s seat could be at risk, while the PDC, who are irrelevant due to the canton’s Protestantism, would seem to have no chance of winning back the seat that they held until 2011. Having said that, the two centrist formations have formed a wide encompassing Centrist alliance with the BDP and Green Liberals; which means the EPV should hold on, in part aided by the anticipated GLP gains. Bern could also wind up being the only canton where the BDP hold on, they’ll probably lose one of their existing seats (but hold the other two), as things look pretty grim in both Aargau and Graubunden; and even Martin Landolt’s seat in Glarus isn’t that safe considering he only just held of the SP there in 2015.

On the right, the SVP and FDP are standing separately; which could end up hurting both parties. The SVP suffered fairly steep losses in the cantonal election last year, in part thanks to the increasing left shift of Bern’s agglomeration. The loss of at least one seat is expected, and a second loss could put Manfred Bühler’s, the only Francophone in Bern’s Nationalrat delegation, seat at risk.

On the left, as usual, the Greens and SP are apparented together with the PdA (labour party) and a join Young Greens – Alternative Left list. The smaller radical left lists have no hope, but the Greens in particular fancy their chances of winning a third seat; and the SP may also hope for a gain on the back of their strong result last year.

In the Ständerat election, SP incumbent Hans Stöckli should win re-election. The second seat looks to be turning into a battle between the BDP’s current Regierungsratin Béatrice Simon, the SVP’s Werner Salzmann, and Green party president Regula Rytz. Simon was initially the favourite in the race, but it has opened up since the start of the campaign and is currently one of the Green’s biggest hopes of making a gain in the small chamber (they currently have chances of winning seats in Baselland, Vaud, Geneva and Bern; but probably aren’t favoured in any of those races). The final result probably hangs on whether the GLP’s Kathrin Bertschy (a relative left winger in the party, most notable for introducing the bill to legalise gay marriage to parliament) steps down in an eventual second round.

Zürich
The largest canton (population 1.5m) has 35 seats in the Nationalrat and 2 in the Ständerat, canton Uri (population 40’000) also has two Ständerat seats, a not at all problematic state of affairs. The canton itself is a broad mix of the increasingly left-wing city of Zürich itself, and Alabama it’s Conservative and nationalistic hinterland (we are in Eastern Switzerland after all).

It's seats currently go: SVP – 12; SP – 9; FDP – 5; GLP – 3; the CVP and Greens have 2 each; and the EVP and BDP one each. The two Ständerat seats are held by the SP and FDP.

In the Nationalrat race, the expectation is something of a repeat of the cantonal elections earlier this year, where the two ecologist parties made major gains; the SP and FDP dropped slightly; and the SVP lost big time. All three of the canton’s major parties are facing issues this time round. The SVP, whose virulent nationalist wing originated in Zürich, looks out of touch and divided, especially over the climate issue, between its Wineland-farmers wing and its Gold Coast-liberal wing. The SP has been split over the EU framework and the party's overall shift to the left, leading to notables like Chantal Galladé (ex-MP) and Daniel Frei (ex-local party president) defecting to the GLP. The FDP meanwhile still has messaging issues, and even it’s climate change u-turn seems to be creating the risk of voters deserting them towards the SVP. Exacerbating this, the SVP and FDP, usually allies, refused a list-connection this time round; although the SP are connected with the Greens, giving them some hope of avoiding losses.

The counter-point then, is the big gains expected by the GLP and Greens. Zürich is the Green-Liberals home canton, and is a natural stronghold given the large number of progressive, but economically liberal voters found in particular in the wealthier districts of Zürich city as well as the prosperous commuter villages on the Gold and Silver coasts and in the Säuliamt. They have also committed to a big Centrist alliance with the EVP, CVP and BDP. The former two will probably stagnate, but it’s looking like an (almost) inevitably that Rosemarie Quadranti, president of the BDP’s parliamentary delegation, will lose her seat.

The Greens also expect big gains; in part thanks to their strength amongst left-wing voters in the cities of Zürich and Winterthur; but they also win a big anti-nuclear vote in the North-west of the canton owing to the proximity of the Leibstadt and Beznau nuclear power plants. Also connected to the Greens and SP are the radical left Alternative-Liste, who have an outside shot at a seat, although it would probably take a gain of about 0.5%, which is unlikely based on the cantonal election results.

In the Ständerat race, much attention has been given to the campaign of Roger Köppel; a right-wing firebrand and editor of the (very) right wing Weltwoche magazine (famous for describing the Romands as the alcoholic, work shy “Greeks of Switzerland”). Despite, his unlimited cash, he won’t get elected though, he is too polarising; as mentioned, has pissed off much of his own party through his climate denialism; and is also the (ironically, you might say) laziest current member of parliament – having taken part of fewer votes than any other MP; and belonging to no committees. Most likely is the re-election the two incumbents of moderate-SP Daniel Jositsch and FDP Ruedi Noser; although the GLP’s Tiana Angelina Moser reckons she has a good shot.

[VPH]

Zürich
The canton itself is a broad mix of the increasingly left-wing city of Zürich itself, and Alabama it’s Conservative and nationalistic hinterland (we are in Eastern Switzerland after all).

You joke, but I spent one day in Zurich in 2014 and saw the stars and bars draped over somebody's balcony in the middle of the city.

[parochial boy]

Factoring into discussions about the Federal Council, Sotomo, alongside Le Temps have released their annual review of parliamentarians; classifying them from left to right on the basis of their voting records.

Perhaps most interesting is the below chart, which shows the polarisation of left and right since the 1990s, with UDC moving right and PS and Greens moving left (and demonstrating how the Greens and PS are virtually indistinguishable in practice)*.

It also picks up the GreenLiberals fairly pronounced shift to the left since their foundation. The fact that they come across as a solidly centre-left party is here is mostly a reflection of the, well, problems with a two dimensional scale. That said, they pretty clearly have moved left, thanks to their newer generally more left-leaning members; but also to meet their electorate, which has always defined itself as broadly left of centre.

Anyway, point being is that the graph shows why a Green Federal Councillor would probably be unpalatable even for the PDC. It would make the Federal Council more left wing than it ever has been, whereas a leftish GLP federal councillor like Kathrin Bertschy might be a good enough compromise to be elected. The problem here, though, being that relations between the GLP and the PS, who would be indispensible in this scenario, are really very bad at the moment.



*though probably worth some relativising to do here, the PLR's seeming shift left in the 90s/00s is probably down to its relative pro-EU/migration stance in an era where that was closer to the top of the agenda, rather than any ideological move on their part. The Green/PS shift left is certainly authentic, but over the last parliament has also been the result of a backs-against-the-wall stance against the PLR/UDC majority.

[Jens]

I really enjoy your updates about the cantons. Keep them comming, parochial boy :-)

[parochial boy]

Thanks! Appreciate it!

I was going to write something, but went out and got drunk instead - but suffice to know that Valais and Fribourg are good places to look out for Green-Red pick ups; and the weird little cantons are esoteric and bizarre (can explant further if anyone wants to know).

Anyway, we have an election tomorrow (today!). Polls (mostly) close at midday, and results should start appearing at https://www.elections.admin.ch/fr/ch/ shortly after. I was planning on getting up for the results, but, all things considered maybe not...

Switzerland is a bit of a Shíthole tax haven, and it would be great if we could change that. All it takes is a two seat swing to kill off the right wing majority. Most of us don't vote for the right after all and it would be nice to kill of this "the Swiss are all racist, libertarian" bla, bla, bla... anyway

Allez, tschüss zäme. Croisons les doigts!

[Double Carpet]

Vielen dank/merci beaucoup/mille grazie for all the updates!

Do you have a link for Swiss TV (ideally German but French ok too) that won't be geoblocked, to follow the results?

Thanks!

[Tender Branson]

This is today !



Will be interesting to watch, I guess the Greens and Green-Liberals will surge to some 15-20% combined (but more towards 20% if Vorarlberg is any indicator).

Also, turnout (which is historically low in Switzerland) should pass 50%. My estimate would be 54% (up from 48.5% in 2015), due to a surge of young voters - who are extremely lazy in Switzerland. Only 30% of 18-24 year olds voted last time, compared with 66% of those who are older than 65.

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/eidgenoessische-wahlen-2019/wahlen-2019-diese-sechs-fragen-sind-heute-entscheidend-ld.1503669

Question for parochial boy:

Do you know the number of eligible voters ? I found different sources, but it should be around 5.45 million people this time.

That's quite low, considering that Switzerland has 8.6 million people, but there are only 6.4 million with Swiss citizenship and Switzerland does not allow 16 year olds to vote. Which could be a reason why the Greens/Green-Liberals might not break 20% combined. The 16-18 year old crowd is the most ardent Green clientel right now.

Also, here are maps of historical results:

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/wahlen-2019/wahlen-2019-so-haben-die-schweizer-gemeinden-in-den-letzten-40-jahren-gewaehlt

BTW: polls close at noon.

[parochial boy]

Vielen dank/merci beaucoup/mille grazie for all the updates!

Do you have a link for Swiss TV (ideally German but French ok too) that won't be geoblocked, to follow the results?

Thanks!

https://www.rts.ch/play/tv/rts-info/video/rts-un-en-direct?id=10774062 in French
https://www.srf.ch/play/tv in German

RTS have said they're not geoblocking elections coverage; I haven't seen anything similar from SRF although imagine it would be the same

Tender - not sure about the precise numbers; as you'd have to go look at every canton one by one. You also have 750'000 overseas Swiss, about 180'000 of whom are registered plus a few individual oddities, like Glarus has votes at age 16 and Neuchâtel lets foreigners vote for its senators.

[parochial boy]

Early results mainly coming from little rural areas - here is a live map

https://www.atlas.bfs.admin.ch/maps/12/fr/14580_14573_14572_242/23151.html

Looking like a first couple of seat losses for the UDC: in Appenzell-Ausserhoden the FDP look like winning the seat back, in part thanks to the SP standing aside. In Basel-stadt, looks like a big slap for the right-wing parties; the PS-Green alliance a currently winning an outright majority of the vote.

In Aargau, swings away from the right, SRF are projecting the PS, PDC(!) and PEV picking up a seat each; with the UDC, PBD (rip) and PLR all losing. UDC actually down 6% in Aargau!

[Double Carpet]

Thanks again and for the map too, French TV is working but German isn't so I don't know what that says!

Also why do % vote movements in Swiss elections tend to be so small compared to most other countries?

[Tender Branson]

Thanks again and for the map too, French TV is working but German isn't so I don't know what that says!

Also why do % vote movements in Swiss elections tend to be so small compared to most other countries?

The German-speaking SRF works for me.

I’m watching it right now.

As for vote changes: Swiss politics is very boring, they get things done, there’s hardly any scandals or controversy, that’s why changes are small.

[parochial boy]

Thanks again and for the map too, French TV is working but German isn't so I don't know what that says!

Also why do % vote movements in Swiss elections tend to be so small compared to most other countries?

Fatih Derder (talking about the moment) is whining about the left doing so well

Lots of reasons about swings, but the key ones are that:
 - The Magic Formula means that the government typically stays the same regardless of election results, which doesn't really tend incite people to vote different ways
 - the referendums and popular initiatives provide people with an effective veto, which again means that party choice is less important in practice
 - something of a conservative mindset that views voting for a new party as a big "risk"

Big news out of Geneva, the PS-Green Conseil d'état ticket has finished miles infront of the PLR challenge; and based on 77% of votes being counted in the Conseil National race, the Greens are actually heading towards being the largest party in the canton (an 13% surge including the Young Green list) with Ensemble à Gauche winning back a seat; and GreenLibs picking a surprise one (this is turning into a disaster for the PLR)

And the Greens have picked up a shock seat in the Ständerat in Glarus. Wow!

[Double Carpet]

Thanks both.

Am I also right in thinking that the Magic Formula has remained unchanged in terms of party composition (if not actual seat numbers on the Federal Council) since 1959, apart from one term when the SVP went into opposition?

And the low turnout by comparison with elsewhere is presumably also at least partly explained by the high number of referendums? (only other country with a lot is US I think)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there a list of the major party policies/manifesto planks this election?

[parochial boy]

Thanks both.

Am I also right in thinking that the Magic Formula has remained unchanged in terms of party composition (if not actual seat numbers on the Federal Council) since 1959, apart from one term when the SVP went into opposition?

And the low turnout by comparison with elsewhere is presumably also at least partly explained by the high number of referendums? (only other country with a lot is US I think)

The CVP ans SVP swapped a seat before the whole Widmer-Schlumpf saga, so pretty much yeah.

Low turnout happens for similar reasons to the small swings; an actual election is relatively low stakes in part because referendums always provide that option to veto any law that is passed in parliament and because "what's the point, the federal council doesn't change anyway".

Swiss people have a tendancy not to really take their politics particularly seriously - kind of as a result of those factors - which also leads to lack of any kind of overarching personalities. Like, if you asked random people on the street who the president was this year, or to name any Federal Councillors; most would struggle. And that all factors in.

(although the thing to remember is that most polling seems to suggest that only around 20% of people never vote; about 30% vote on every occasion and around 50% pick and choose when to vote based on when something captures their attention. So in practice, winning elections comes down to convincing the big well of untapped voters that it is worth turning out this time.

Is there a list of the major party policies/manifesto planks this election?

err, a list? not that I'm aware of, there isn't so much of a tradition of national level manifestos. The cantonal parties are a little too different. But there are general things they say around particular themes.

Anyway, I'm off to a wine tasting now, so won't be online till later. So far looks like the Green wave is even bigger than predicted; all the government parties are doing badly, but the PS and PLR in particular seem to be doing a little bit worse than expected, and PDC maybe slightly more positive.

[Double Carpet]

Greens up 5.6 in first national projection, which I guess must be quite a lot for a Swiss election.

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1185919467903225861