Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December

[parochial boy]

When was the last time the top 4 weren't the SVP, SP, FDP and CVP? (in any order)

Technically 1917, as the Farmers, Traders and Independents only came into existence for the 1919 elections (which were the first under PR). The Christian Democrats and their predecessors have never been out of the top 4; and have been Federal Council since 1892.

Also, would that result give one member of the Federal Council to the Greens over CVP for sure or is that unclear?

Nothing for certain, but I would hunch that it is very, very unlikely that the PDC would be replaced by the Greens. Basically you have a few things to take into account:

 - Even if the PDC drop behind the Greens, they will win more seats in the Ständerat/Conseil des Etats (they have 13 at the moment to the Greens 1, there is a massive incumbency bias, and the PDC are "protected" by their ability to win crossover support as the Centrist party and by having their strongholds in smaller cantons). So it is still a near certainty that the PDC wind up with more elected MP's voting in Federal Council elections

 - The PS are on record as saying they want the Greens to replace the PLR or UDC Federal Councillor in order to restore a "balanced" Federal Council, instead of the right wing majority one we have at the moment

 - From their perspective, the PLR and UDC have made positive sounds about giving the Greens a seat; but no way do they give one of their own ones away

So on balance, I can't see the composition changing, as the left and the rights' perspectives tend to cancel each other out, even if both are open the Greens moving in. That is, unless there is enough of a left shift to give the Greens and Socialists (in tandem with the PDC and the smaller Centrist parties) some way of out manipulating the right.

The bigger shake up, I think, is that it will mean a definitive end to the Magic Formula logic, and could be paving the way for actual contested Federal Council elections (or at least, intense behind the scenes bartering) as opposed to the formulaic intra-party ones we have had since the 19050s.

[parochial boy]

Some cantonal level polling dribbling out today:

First up, Der Tagi has some polling for Zürich's two ständerat seats (paywalled, but NZZ's article is here) -

Daniel Jositsch (PS) - 63%
Rudi Noeser (FDP) - 41%
Roger Köppel (SVP) - 31%
Tiana Angelina Moser (GLP) - 21%
Marionna Schlatter (Greens) - 15%
Nicole Barandun (CVP) - 15%
Nik Gugger (EVP) - 4%

Meaning Jositsch gets re-elected in the first round - and all second round scenarios have Noeser comfortably re-elected in the second. Moser beats Köppel to third if Schlatter stands down, but in reality, looks very far fetched for the Green'Liberals to win back the seat they lost in 2015. And Köppel's high profile campaign seems to be going nowhere

Nationalrat numbers were (changes on 2015)
SVP - 27,3% (-3,4%)
SP - 10,3% (-1,1%)
FDP - 14,7% (-0,6%)
GLP - 12,6% (+4,4%)
Greens - 10,7% (+3,8%)
CVP - 3,7% (-0,5%)
PBD - 1,5% (-2,1%)
EVP - 2,8% (-0,3%)

Good for the left. GLP gains somewhat neutralised by the 3 point drop for their centrist allies in the PBD, PEV and PDC.

In Valais, Le Nouvelliste had numbers (with changes on 2015) of:

PDC - 36.1% (-3.4%)
UDC - 21.7% (-0.4%)
PLR - 17% (-1.1%)
PS - 12.8% (-0.5%)
Greens - 8.8% (+3.9%)
PVL, PCS & Valais Citzens Movements - 3.6% combined

Not helpful showing the last three together as the GreenLibs' votes will flow into the PLR, and PCS's into the PS/Green combined score. But on those numbers, it should mean the Green's picking up one of the four seats currently held by the PDC.

They also had Conseil d'Etat numbers of
Beat Rieder (CVP Oberwallis) - 43%
Marianne Maret (PDC) - 31%
Matthias Reynard (PS) - 30%
Philippe Nantermod (PLR) - 27%
Cyrille Fauchère (UDC) - 18%
Brigitte Wolf (Greens) - 14%
Michael Kreuzer (SVP) - 12%

Rieder wins thanks to the Oberwallis bloc vote, but if he doesn't make it through in the first round there could be enough vote splitting on the right in the second round for Reynard to become the PS's first ever senator from the canton.

Edit, there's also one from Graubünden. We're really doing the big cantons wallah

SVP - 29,1% (-0,6%)
SP - 16,8% (-0,8%)
CVP - 16,7% (-0,1%)
FDP - 14,2% (+0,9%)
BDP 9,3% (-5,2%)
GLP - 9,1% (+1,2%)
Greens - 4,8% (didn't stand last time).

Confirming suspicions of RIP BDP who would lose their sole seat in the canton (starting to look dangerously like they'll only have 2 seats left come the 20th). Thanks to the Listenverbundungen, that should mean the CVP/FDP/BDP sharing two out of the five seats (FDP winning the one the BDP currently hold, basically); the PS/GreenLibs/Greens sharing two (one apiece for the PS and GLP, a gain of one for the GLP); while the SVP lose one of the two they currently hold.

Oh, and Bern too, apparently
SVP - 29,4% (-3,7%)
PS - 20,3% (+0,6%)
Greens - 12,0% (+3,5%)
FDP - 10,0% (+0,7%)
BDP - 9,1% (-2,7%)
GLP - 8,3% (+2,3%)
EVP - 3,7% (-0,6%)
Others - 7,2%

This is my favourite one so far. They have 24 seats, so I'm not doing the maths, but I think the big centrist alliance means Marianne Streif of the EVP saves her seat.

In other news, the PDC managed to create a storm this week - basically google any (relatively notable) candidate, and the first link takes you through to a website set up by the PDC attacking the candidates' and their parties' policies.

You know, basically normal stuff in the rest of the world (like literally, it was stuff like attacking the PLR for not being serious on climate change); but a "despicable outrage" in the high intensity world of Swiss politics. Enough for PDC candidates to denounce their own party, and apparently even bad enough that the website now appears to be down. Poor old Christian Democrats just can't stop winning, lol.

[parochial boy]

According to the University of St Gallen, the average Swiss person has a net wealth (exlcuding pension savings) of CHF215'000 (USD215'000) - higher than ever, although more unequally distributed than ever. Most people actually have a net wealth of under chf50'000, and one in four have no net wealth at all.

In particular, the three richest cantons of Schwyz (chf 718'500 per person); Nidwald (chf 677'400 per person) and Zug (chf 492'300 per person) are well ahead of everywhere else - including the major financial centres of Zurich and Geneva.

I wonder what those three cantons have in common? hmm... 🤔

[parochial boy]

"Big" campaign news this week include the UDC Neuchâtel's Yvan Perrin forgetting to turn up to a debate; a Pirate Party wraparound cover on the free daily "20 Minuten" this morning (which I read, and competely failed to realised was a political advert - so obviously highly succesful). Ticinos' Lega (with UDC support) conseil des états candidate is also in a bit of trouble as it turns out he has been hiring Italians, which is quite funny for a party whose raison d'être is to throw the Italians out.

Parliament also voted to introduce a tax on all plane tickets, ranging from 30-120 francs per ticket - so expect a referendum on that soon.

As it's only three weeks, I thought I'd preview the situation in a few of cantons, with what is going on and what is likely to happen.

Staring with Aargau
Aargau is the 5th most populous canton. A land of small medieval and industrial towns and of urban sprawl between Zurich and Basel; meaning despite a population of 700'000, it has no towns of more than 20'000. As such, the canton has a well deserved reputation for Conservatism (and for white socks, motorways and Bosnians...), it gave the SVP/UDC 38% of the vote in 2015, their 4th best score in the country. In many ways, it functions as a sort of bellweather for German Switzerland specificially. True to that, as a largely suburban and densely populated region, it has been subjected to a lot of the forces that have seen the Swiss German cantons veering left over the last 2-3 years, making it a good place to look for Green-red pick-ups in three weeks.

Currently, Aargau's Conseil National delegation is made up of
SVP - 7 seats
FDP - 3 seats
SP - 2 seats
CVP, Greens, GLP and BDP - 1 each

It's two seats in the Conseil des états are held by the SP's Pascale Bruderer and FDP's Phillipe Müller.

In the race for the upper house, both seats are in fact up for grabs as both Müller and Bruderer are stepping down this year. Müller's seat should fairly mechanically be filled by the FDP's Thierry Burkart, but the one vacated by Bruderer is subject to a massive fight between SP and SVP. A lot of the conventional wisdom has been that the SP's chance of keeping the seat was almost zero. Bruderer was the first Socialist to hold the seat since 1945, and was a popular centrist (and there have been rumours that her decision to step down was in protest at the SP's swing to the left in recent years).

In the race to replace her, the SP have picked ex-Juso president Cédric Wermuth, a figure very much on the left of the party. Although he might seem like a bad fit for the canton; he does actually have a good shot. He has been running a very enthusiastic campaign (involving Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's campaign manager allegedly), and has definitely motivated the latent left wing vote in the canton.

Against him, is the SVP's Hansjörg Knecht - and the overall result probably depends on Knecht's ability to win over FDP voters' second votes.

In the Conseil National race, this looks like it could be a particularly tricky canton for the SVP. Added to the overall factors working against them (issue salience etc....), they have had quite a few scandals this yearr. Firstly, their Regierungsratin (cantonal minister), Franziska Roth essentially had to be sacked by the party for being unable to do her job - to the point that the rest of the cantonal executive were refusing to work with her. This was followed by MP Luzi Stamm being thrown out of the party after he was caught bringing cocaine into the parliament building in Bern - not even a first offence as he had previously been caught with counterfeit money - also in the Bundeshaus. Having said that, this is one of the few cantons where they have renewed the 2015 listenverbindung with the FDP (which won the FDP a seat in 2015), which could limit the seat losses. The FDP would like to keep their third seat, but a dropping UDC vote could put it in danger even if the FDP's own score holds up.

Overall, there are 34 separate lists running for the 16 available seats (including, as mentioned, the absurd spectacle of 9 separate CVP ones). It should be a good canton for the left (as mentioned, urbanisation of the suburbs and a new type of left friendly voter). The PS and Greens's lists are connected (with the Pirates as well), which should lead to a pick up of at least one (likely Green) seat.

In the centre, the BDP and EVP are connected. This should be enough for the BDP to keep their seat (the two parties got over 8% combined in 2015). Although a particularly bad performance (ie, polls suggesting they'll lose a third of their vote), could actually lead to the EVP winning the seat off of them. The Green Liberals and PDC are also connected, which means the GLP's gains and PDC's losses should more or less cancel out.

[parochial boy]

And coincidentally, Die Aargauer Zeitung and Sotomo have released some polling today.

For the Ständerat:

Thierry Burkart (FDP) - 43%
Hansjörg Knecht (SVP) - 38%
Cédric Wermuth (SP) - 29%
Marianne Binder-Keller (CVP) - 17%
Rüth Muri (Greens) - 16%
Beat Flach (GLP) - 12%

everyone else in single figures, and both second round polls show Knecht holding on to his ~10 point lead.

In the Nationalrat, with scores compared to 2015

SVP - 33.9% (-4.1%)
PS - 16.9% (+0.8%)
FDP - 15.2% (+0.1%)
Greens - 8.6%  (+3.1%)
GLP - 8.5% (+3.3%)
CVP - 7.8% (-0.8%)
EVP - 3.2% (-0.1%)
BDP - 2.7% (-2.4%!)

As I was saying basically. Translated into real results it would mean the SVP's worst score in the canton since the start of the century; and the Green and GLP's highest ever scores.It also looks like another wipe out for the BDP; and their combined score looks low enough that even the EVP wouldn't hold on to the seat. (actually quick mental maths suggests the EVP might keep it, but touch and go...)

[parochial boy]

One more poll - Lucerne


In their wisdom, Luzerner Zeitung deciding to only mention the numbers for a few parties (but cribbed the wikipedia numbers)
SVP - 25,0% (-3.5%)
CVP - 22,3% (-1,6%)
FDP - 17,3% (-1,2%)
SP - 14,3% (+0,7%)
Greens - 11,4% (+4,3%)
GLP - 8,6% (+2,8%)

Listeverbindungen are SP/Greens/GLP(and Intégrale Politik) and FDP/CVP with the SVP going it alone. As Lucerne has lost a seat for demographic reasons this time round, this  would translate into 2 seats for the CVP; 2 for the FDP; 2 for the SVP and one a piece for the SP, Greens and GreenLibs. A gain of one seat for the GLP, while the SVP and CVP lose one each.

In the Ständerat race, the poll suggests FDP's Damian Müller is easily re-elected; CVP's Gmür-Schönenberger and SVP's Grüter are in a close race for second; but a second round would easily see the CVP retain the outgoing Konrad Graber's seat.

[parochial boy]

How likely do you think it will be that the Greens will surpass the CVP, and what effects, if any, will it really have? Bundesräte are elected by the whole Nationalrat iirc, so the mere fact would not render the Zauberformel moot, would it? Then again, Greens plus GreenLiberals would likely score in or above the 15% range, so you couldn't really deny that section their Bundesrat while granting one to the CVP, could you?

In popular vote terms, I think there is every chance the Greens finish up in front of the Christian Democrats. For the most part, polling in Switzerland tends to be fairly accurate (as it's a fairly easy exercise in a country where a party gaining 3% is considered a "massive swing"), but iirc from polling for 2015 and some of the cantonal votes, it does tend to underestimate swings when they do happen. Not to say that this means they are definitely underestmating GLP and Green gains this time (or the UDC going the other way), but it is definitely something to look out for.

As for the Federal Council, it's elected by both houses of parliament. That's already something to look out for, as the PDC/CVP will win far more seats in the Ständerat; even if they fall behind the Greens in the popular vote. Simple fact is, they have a lot of incumbents (which matters a lot), an advantage in being strong in the smaller cantons, and the ability to win votes from left and right. The Greens, meanwhile, have one conseillère aux états, who is stepping down anyway; and probably only really three realistic shots at getting people elected this year (in Bern, Geneva and Vaud; and Geneva is the only one I would rate as being more likely than not). So, there is almost no way that the Greens actually surpass the CVP/PDC in terms of numbers of parliamentarians.

Having said that, both the UDC and PLR have so far indicated that they would be happy to see the Greens in the Federal Council should they finish fourth. The problem is, while the UDC and PLR reckon this mechanically means the Greens in and CVP out, the PS (and Greens too) would want to keep the PDC in and replace one of the PLR or UDC federal councillors so as to restore an ideologically "balanced" Federal Council rather than the current right wing majority. If the GLP/Green combined score is bigger than the PLR's, then you would have a further case to make that someone from one of the two parties should replace the not very popular Ignazio Cassis.

Obviously, there is no way in hell the PLR or UDC will accept that; and there is a reason that the Greens and Green Liberals are different parties (to the extent that Bäumle has already ruled out trying for a joint seat - he's no longer in charge, and the rest of the GLP has moved to his left in recent years, but I would still take what he has to say into account). So unless there is a massive left-surge then I would basically assume that the right will block any maneouvres to kick out Cassis; and that the PDC (along with the other centrists), will have a big enough chunk of the vote to avoid losing their seat.

But yeah, it's obviously looking pretty bad for the Magic Formula (even to the extent it "survived" the Blocher years) as it is currently understood. Which makes sense in a way, seeing as the factors it was built to overcome don't really exist anymore. But honestly, I don't really see it meaning the end of the "Swiss model". Most cantonal governments are directly elected, and work just fine. The "concordance" tradition is deeply enough entrenched that you probably don't need the deliberately assembled government to hold things together.

[parochial boy]

One last Tamedia/LeeWas national poll gives numbers of:

UDC - 27.9% (-1.5%)
PS - 18.0% (-0.8%)
PLR - 15.6% (-0.8%)
PDC - 10.4% (-1.2%)
Greens - 10.2% (+3.1%)
GLP - 7.2% (+2.6%)
PBD - 3.3% (-0.9%)

Relatively encouraging for the UDC (although, it's actually their worst score in a Tamedia poll yet), terrible for the PLR given what their expectations were at the start of the year. Although, I'm always a bit sceptical of Tamedia polls - I took part in this one twice, which... tells you a little it about what you need to know.

Also a huge demonstration for the climate yesterday in Bern - up to 100'000 people turned up; which is pretty incredible for a city with a population of just 140'000. Eg...

[parochial boy]

Moving on to the left wing heartland that is the Jurassic arc, or the cantons of Jura and Neuchâtel

Jura
Has two seats in the Conseil National, with the PDC and PS both holding one seat each. Likewise, its two seats in the Conseil des Etats are shared by the same two parties.

In both races, it is basically a guarantee that the two parties, which dominate the canton’s politics, retain their two seats. The PS benefit from the canton being a left-wing stronghold (despite being rural and working class), while the PDC, who tend to be rather left leaning compared to the national party, benefit from the canton’s Catholicism, in particular when bearing in mind the role that religion played in the separatist.

As Jura only has two seats, the domination of these two parties makes it typically very difficult to move seats. Having said that, in the past, a PLR-UDC apparentement did once manage to win a seat in the Conseil National, even despite the UDC’s weakness in the canton, principally a result of them being on the wrong side of the separatist conflict. This year, the smaller PCSI (Independent Christian-Social Party, a left Christian party that emerged during the separatist conflict) had proposed a large left wing alliance including them, the Greens, PS and the POP (Parti du Travail) in the hope of snatching the second seat. However for not entirely clear reasons, the PS rejected the proposal, and the Greens then refused to go with the PCSI. On the right, the PLR also refused to ally with the UDC meaning that there are no apparentements in the canton – all but guaranteeing the seats remain as they are. There has been some speculation that the ongoing brouhaha in Moutier (now officially holding its second referendum on the 21st June 2020) might impact the scenario in Jura, but basically the entire Jurassien political spectrum supports Moutier joining, which cancels out any potential impact really.

In the Conseil des Etats the same applies, Jura is only one of two cantons that elects its senators proportionately (the other being Neuchâtel), making it very difficult to dislodge the PDC/PS duo.

Neuchâtel
Another left stronghold thanks principally to its watchmaking industry (and the university in Neuchâtel itself), the canton fairly reliably splits its four Conseil National seats evenly between left and right. Currently the PLR and UDC on the right; and the PS and POP on the left all hold one a piece.

Once again, the small number of seats makes it hard to shift. However, the UDC’s seat in particular is at risk. It’s current MP Raymond Clottu quit the party and is not standing again, and the party suffered a huge reverse at the cantonal elections, losing half of their vote share, after cantonal minister Yvan Perrin suffered a burn out and stood down from the government. Perrin is leading the UDC’s list this time, but seems to have gone awol, leading to concerns about his health (again), and leading on to the other parties sensing an opportunity to take the UDC’s seat.

On the right, the PLR are hopeful of picking it up, as they had an excellent cantonal election result and are by some distance the largest party in the canton. However, they failed to agree any apparentements, as the GreenLiberals rejected an alliance, making the job harder. On the left, the PS, Greens and hard-left POP have agreed a big alliance. The Greens and POP have also sub-joined their lists, which should mean whichever of the two wins more votes gets the left’s second seat. The seat is currently held by POP mayor of Le Locle Denis De La Reusille, making it the only seat held by the Communists in the country; although he faces a tough battle to overcome the surging Greens. The left reckon they might have the ability to grab the UDC’s. That would the joint lists getting three times as many votes as the UDC, but also getting about 15% more than whatever the PLR get. They did achieve this both in 2015 and the 2017 cantonal elections, but as the disspearing UDC vote could funnel into the PLR, it makes the task slightly harder than in previous elections.

The Conseil des Etats seats are, like in Jura, elected proportionally. As the PLR and PS are by far the two dominant parties, it is pretty much guaranteed that they will retain their seats.

[parochial boy]

Oh, that's quite a tricky question actually. If by "that kind of Social Democratic party" you mean Third-Wayist, then absolutely not. They are one of (arguably the most) left wing of Europe's traditional Soc-Dem parties. For instance, their party progamme still commits them to "ovecoming capitalism", have supported a national salary cap, and currently support a pretty radical wealth tax. But, having said that, the core of their electorate is what gets called the "Sociocultural specialists" (ie teachers, nurses and the like), and they only do slightly better than average with "traditional" working class voter (although a big complicating factor is that the majority of the "traditional working class" are in fact not Swiss and don't have the right to vote).

Having said that though it is worth relativising as the PS were always relatively weak with the working class - even at their height, they got abour 45% of the working class vote. This being a legacy of three main factors: 1. The role of the Christian Democrats in catholic cantons; 2. The tradition of municipal autonomy, especially in German Switzerland (communes are responsible for welfare, for example), which leads to  a suspicion of "centralist" Socialism; 3. The way that the industrial revolution happened in Switzerland, which was mainly in smaller towns and villages and very paternatlistic in nature.

The other factor is, in contrast to other Soc Dem parties, the PS's working class voter base crashed much earlier in Switzerland: in the 1970s/80s (for familiar reasons, cf the point about foreigners, as well as the influence of the Soixante-huitards and deindustrialisation, especially in Ostschweiz.). Since then, they have remained more or less stable by holding on to that core of "Sociocultural specialists" and remaining loyalist working class vote (augmented by newly naturalised immigrants) by, probably correctly from a tactical point of view, taking a straightforward "left on everything" approach - be it immigration, women's equality or your traditional Socialist welfare state, strong public sector, anti-liberal fare (knowing full well that is exactly the kind of politics that, um, teachers and nurses, and increasingly people living in urban areas, tend to appreciate).

With that in mind, the PS vote among working class voters in French Switzerland has held up far more strongly than in German Switzerland, which you can basically see by looking at any electoral map - the industrial regions of German Switzerland (the lower Aare valley, Zürcher Unterland and Ostschweiz) vote uniformly UDC/SVP; whereas industrial Romandie (essentially the entire Jura mountain range from Geneva to Jura) still gets coloured in PS pink. The kind of basic reason for this is that working class voters in Romandie tend to be fairly socially liberal. For example, every district in the Jurassic arc voted against limiting mass immigration in 2014 (except the Val de Travers in Neuchâtel, which is entirely rural; and the Jura Bernois, which has its own very peculiar set of circumstances that I won't go into because I am already waffling on too much). Likewise the Val-de-Travers (which is where absinthe was invented, maybe there's a link?) and the Jura Bernois were also the only places in the region that voted to ban minarets by more than the national average. Even quintessentially working class areas like the Franches-Montagnes in Jura rejected the ban.

There are a set of reasons, both historical and rooted in more recent developments, as to why Romandie, and especially the Jura, is more left wing across the board, both Socially and Economically. The jist is down to there being less traditional "communal autonomy" and suspicion of The State, far more connection to the rest of Europe, a more antagonistic industrialisation, a more transient and urban population; and more recently, a cultural and economic anxiety about the Germans where part of the response was a self-conscious "we're not like them" progressive regional identity (it also has a higher rate of university attendance, more people on welfare and more people working in the public sector; although those are all chicken and egg factors, they do correlate to voting for the left). Jura has a whole extra dimension around the separatist conflict which led to the new canton moving left, while the Jura Bernois moved right. Getting back to the original point though the PS hold up unusually well amongst working class voters in the Jura for that reason.

[parochial boy]

Lots more cantonal polling coming out over the past couple of days from Sotomo.

In Thurgau, just a Ständerat poll that I've seen that has CVP's Brigitte Häberli and SVP's Jakob Stark easily re-elected. So no change there

In Zug also just a Ständerat one with a CVP-SVP duo being elected; implying the FDP might lose their existing seat.

In St Gallen, Nationalrat scenario looks like this:


I can't be bothered to do the maths, but should mean Greens and GLP gaining and CVP and FDP losing a seat each. Greens & SP are linked, as are CVP and BDP, but everyone else seems to be going alone.

In the Ständerat, they've got Benedict Würth (41%) of the CVP and Paul Rechsteiner (39%) of the SP taking the top spots, with a small gap to SVP's Büchel on 35%. Rechsteiner is actually a fairly solid leftwinger, so it completely baffles me as to how he managed to get elected in St Gallen in the first place. SG returning its CVP-SP duo would mean it retaining one of the most left wing Ständerat delegations in the country, which is really pretty hillarious.

Finally Baselland has a Nationalrat poll as follows


Unlikely to lead to seat changes, but 40% for the left in a Swiss-German canton, wow.

While their Ständerat poll has FDP's Schneeberger on 37% in front of the Greens Graf (29%) and SP's Schneeberger (27,8%). Assuming, one of the two Red-Green candidates has the sense to drop out in the second round, it should give them a shot at keeping the outgoing Claude Janiak's seat.

All in all, this is starting to look pretty dreadful for the FDP. As much as the SP could be heading towards a slight fall, they can console themselves with the big Green surge that could end up benefitting them through list connections. For the FDP, they're dropping pretty consistently in these polls now, enough that some alarm bells should be ringing.

[parochial boy]

Another update from the cantons

Geneva
Starting with my beloved home canton, probably the most sui generis of all cantons, both culturally and in its voting habits. Typically, its politics are described as “polarised”. It is the old bastion of the communist Parti du Travail¸ and to this day has the country’s most left wing PS and Green local parties; but at the same time, has a substantial economic liberal banker sentiment; and a somewhat unique propensity towards what might best be called “Woke Xenophobia”. The canton is painstakingly multicultural, inclusive, anti-racist and anti-sexist. Unless, of course, you happen to come from France, in which case you are lower than vermin.

Geneva’s Conseil National delegation currently consists of 3 – PLR; 3 – PS; 2 – UDC; and 1 seat each for the Greens, PDC and MCG. The canton, traditionally the left’s strongest, has actually followed the most pronounced right-wing shift of any canton in recent years; with the left wing parties dropping in support at each election, from winning a majority of the vote in 1995 to just 37% in 2015. It’s probably a little easy to overstate the trend, as much of it is down to the collapse of the PdT’s contestataire vote and the emergence of both the UDC and MCG, bearing also in mind that the 90s were something of an aberration as they came after the collapse of a different far right party, Vigilance.

In the race for the large chamber this year, Geneva has gained a 12th seat, thanks to demographic growth, although the way things fall is going to be hard to predict.

The mainstream right PLR-PDC alliance has been renewed, despite reluctance to do so on the part of the PDC, who are well to the left of, but also fear that they aren’t distinguishable from their Liberal allies. 12 months ago, the expectations were that the PLR would make massive gains, but a series of scandals has hit both of the centre right parties. First up was the ongoing Maudet affair, over the “free” holiday the PLR ex-president of the canton took to the Abu Dhabi grand-prix, followed by the totally convenient awarding of various tenders in Geneva airport to an Abu Dhabi based company. This was followed by PDC mayor of Geneva Guillaume Barazzone running into a protracted expenses scandals, and in recent weeks, an affair involving gifts given by the Manotel hotel chain to Serge Dal Busco, another PDC cantonal minister (although neither have led to quite the level of outrage as the Maudet affair, and the PDC actually feel pretty confident ahead of the 20th). The upshot is, at this point it is anybody’s guess as to whether these scandals overcome the previous good momentum that the PLR had.

On the far right, both the UDC and MCG are still reeling from the disasters they experienced at the cantonal elections. Much of this is to do with a relative relaxing of the frontalier situation, as the cantonal government has finally decided to take action over the more obvious problems it had created. The MCG are also suffering from the antics of Eric Stauffer; point being that, although the two parties have renewed their apparentment, it seems highly likely they’ll lose one of the three seats they currently share, almost certainly Roger Golay of the MCG’s.

The centre parties suffer from a lack of relevance in the canton. The PEV and GreenLiberals have apparented, but excluded the PBD over their decision to present a list headed by Éric Stauffer. I go on about Stauffer, the ex-president of the MCG, and basically a living, breathing stereotype of a genevois, complete with the sort of accent that really died out in the 1990s. Over the course of the last decade, he has successfully alienated just about everyone he has ever been an ally of, and his unique brand of loudmouthed whining is understandably offputting to respectable centrists. Kudos for otherwise putting the irrelevant Geneva PBD on the map though, and he might take a couple of percent of the UDC-MCG vote.

Finally, the left have formed a big apparentment between the PS, Greens and “Ensemble à Gauche” (an alliance of of the Trotskyite SolidaritéS and the PdT, who have the objective of winning back a seat for the far left). As everywhere, the Greens are confident of a big surge in what is natural home turf for them; but the left as a whole is hopeful of re-creating the big surge of the the cantonal’s last year, where they won their best collective result since 2001.

The two Conseil des États seats are currently held by the Greens and PS, although both are up for grabs this year as Liliane Maury Pasquier (PS) and Robert Cramer (Greens) are both stepping down.

The Greens and PS are hoping to regain the two seats by presenting two MP’s, Carlo Sommaruga (PS) and Lisa Mazzone (Greens). Mazzone in particular has a strong media profile, although is a very solid and occasionally controversial left winger. Running against them is the PLR's Hugues Hiltpold. At the moment, it is probably anyone’s guess as to which two of the three gets elected.

In Vaud
Currently, the PLR and PS have 5 seats each, the UDC have 4, Greens 2 and GreenLiberals and PDC one each. Like Geneva, demographic growth means Vaud gains a seat, up to 19 this time round.

In this case, the Greens are all but guaranteed at least one new seat as they would have won the 19th based on 2015 results, even before the surge. Such a surge could be especially pronounced in Vaud, home of the self-proclaimed “green capital” that is the progressive bastion Lausanne. As (almost) everywhere, the left parties have connected their lists, so that Green gains should at least make up for PS losses; especially in light of the solid election of Rebecca Ruiz to the cantonal executive earlier in the year. The alliance also includes a radical left comprised of Ensemble à Gauche and a separate (but sous-apparentée) POP list – the POP being the local name of the Parti du Travail – who have the goal of winning back a seat for the radical left.

On the right, the UDC and PLR have decided not to connect lists after the debacle in the special election won easily by Ruiz – the PLR feel in particular that the UDC link is not good for their brand in a usually open-minded and progressive canton. This might help them in popular vote terms, and they expect to surge as elsewhere in Romandie, but could be costly in terms of seats.

On the Centre, apparentements have not really worked out either. The PDC are going with the PEV and PBD, which may save Claude Béglé’s seat even despite his weird outburst about North Korea earlier this year. The PVL are only apparented with the Pirate Party. They win the seat largely on the back of the popularity of Isabelle Chevalley, a figure who is very definitely on the political right, in contrast to where the rest of the party is these days.

In the Conseil des États the two seats are currently shared by the PS and PLR; with the PS’s Géraldine Savary standing down in the light of a scandal over political donations made by the president of the pharma company Ferring. Chosen to replace Savary is Ada Marra, who is running on a joint list with the Greens Adèle Thorens, another figure with a strong profile. The objective of the dual ticket is to win back the seond seat, lost by the Greens Luc Recordon in 2015.

In other news there was a minor controversy when the UDC aligned Comité d’Eggerkingen put up posters accusing the FDP of not wanting to tackle radical islamism; the FDP complained and the posters got taken down; but another interesting instance of the UDC attacking their own allies.

There were debates between the party presidents in both French and German. I didn’t watch the French one as it was on a Monday night, and gave up with the German one because only Christian Levrat had the decency to speak in proper German and I could barely understand what the others were talking about.

Finally, a poll of Solothurn that looks dreadful for the FDP again, numbers are
SVP – 28.2% (-0.6%)
SP – 19.7% (-0.3%)
FDP – 17.9% (-3.3%)
CVP – 14.2% (-0.6%)
Greens – 8.4% (+2.8%)
GLP – 6.4% (+2.9%)
BDP and EVP irrelevant

Interesting though, that we’ve had polls on basically every German speaking canton, but nothing except Valais from Romandie. Tamedia being really transparent about which part of the country they care about most here, lol.

[parochial boy]

And here we are, Sotomo's last national poll; done in tandem with the SSR/SRG. Seeming to confirm that PLR drop while the Green surge goes on and on.



Also by language region, in German Switzerland it goes
SVP - 30.5% (-2.4%)
SP - 17.9% (-0.4%)
FDP - 12.6% (-1.6%)
Greens - 10.2% (+3.5%)
CVP - 9.8% (-0.7%)
GLP - 8.8% (+3.3%)
BDP - 3.6% (-1.6%)

and in French Switzerland
PLR - 22.8% (+0.3%)
PS -  19.8% (-1.6%)
UDC - 18.5% (-2.3%)
Greens - 13.7% (+4.5%)
PDC - 12.5% (-1.4%)
PVL - 3.6% (+1.1%)
PBD - basically zero

This is the first poll a while that has the red-green gains in Romandie matching German Switzerland; which I'm a little bit scpetical of as everything up until now in terms of cantonal elections and polling suggests that German Switzerland would be trending left relative to Romandie (the other factor being the far left, who are relevant in French Switzerland in a way that they aren't over the Röstigraben, and haven't been mentioned in the poll)

[parochial boy]

teehee, nice one Juso, almost fooled me.

Definitely more honest than what they've been putting on their real posters.

[parochial boy]

Thanks!

Here's some tracking of turnout in some of the larger cities and towns (and Aarau) as of yesterday - usually 80% of ballots are cast by post, so for all intents and purposes, most people are voting at the moment


Ignoring the, um, rather dubious maths on some of the changes; it does look like we are heading towards a turnout over 50%, which would be the first time it happens since 1975. Thank you Greta!

The big drop in Geneva is because online voting was available 2015, but isn't this year because the voting system failed a security audit.

[parochial boy]

And.. it may be happening. According to the Sonntags Zeitung, the Greens and GreenLiberals are planning on launching a joint bid for a Federal Council seat; with either the Greens Bastien Girod or Regula Rytz; or GLP's Tiana Moser as potential candidates.

The idea at the moment is to target Ignacio Cassis's seat; the PLR Federal Councilor is unpopular (and seen as in the pockets of the health insurance lobby); and the two ecologist parties point out that their combined score is higher than the PLR's according to recent polling.

In terms of how likely this is, the PS will be on board (obviously), but the success of the plan relies on how receptive the PDC are - and whether the ecologists can agree on a candidate acceptable to the centre and able to take on the right.

[parochial boy]

Moving back across the linguistic border to look at what might happen in the country’s two biggest cantons.

Bern
Home to the capital, one of the most left wing cities in the country; the industrial watchmaking strongholds and francophone minorities in the north; and the rural, conservative (and often surprisingly religious) heartlands and tourist paradises in the Emmental and the Berner Oberland. A traditional SVP heartland, going back to when it was the old Bauern-Gewerebe und Bürgerpartei (Farmers', artisans' and citizens' party), it maintained a moderate wing of the SVP even throughout the Blocher era, until Federal Councillor Samuel Schmid quit the party to join Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf’s newly formed breakaway, the BDP, in 2008, as a result of which Bern is one of the few cantons where the centrist formation can realistically hope to win seats.

Bern’s seats are currently divided as SVP – 9; SP – 6; BDP – 3; FDP – 2; Greens – 2; GLP – 2; EVP – 1; while it’s Ständerat seats are shared by the SP and BDP.

Due to its slow demographic growth, Bern has lost a seat this year, down to 24. This has the principal impact of making it harder for the smaller parties to keep or win their seats; in particular Marianne Streiff of the EVP’s seat could be at risk, while the PDC, who are irrelevant due to the canton’s Protestantism, would seem to have no chance of winning back the seat that they held until 2011. Having said that, the two centrist formations have formed a wide encompassing Centrist alliance with the BDP and Green Liberals; which means the EPV should hold on, in part aided by the anticipated GLP gains. Bern could also wind up being the only canton where the BDP hold on, they’ll probably lose one of their existing seats (but hold the other two), as things look pretty grim in both Aargau and Graubunden; and even Martin Landolt’s seat in Glarus isn’t that safe considering he only just held of the SP there in 2015.

On the right, the SVP and FDP are standing separately; which could end up hurting both parties. The SVP suffered fairly steep losses in the cantonal election last year, in part thanks to the increasing left shift of Bern’s agglomeration. The loss of at least one seat is expected, and a second loss could put Manfred Bühler’s, the only Francophone in Bern’s Nationalrat delegation, seat at risk.

On the left, as usual, the Greens and SP are apparented together with the PdA (labour party) and a join Young Greens – Alternative Left list. The smaller radical left lists have no hope, but the Greens in particular fancy their chances of winning a third seat; and the SP may also hope for a gain on the back of their strong result last year.

In the Ständerat election, SP incumbent Hans Stöckli should win re-election. The second seat looks to be turning into a battle between the BDP’s current Regierungsratin Béatrice Simon, the SVP’s Werner Salzmann, and Green party president Regula Rytz. Simon was initially the favourite in the race, but it has opened up since the start of the campaign and is currently one of the Green’s biggest hopes of making a gain in the small chamber (they currently have chances of winning seats in Baselland, Vaud, Geneva and Bern; but probably aren’t favoured in any of those races). The final result probably hangs on whether the GLP’s Kathrin Bertschy (a relative left winger in the party, most notable for introducing the bill to legalise gay marriage to parliament) steps down in an eventual second round.

Zürich
The largest canton (population 1.5m) has 35 seats in the Nationalrat and 2 in the Ständerat, canton Uri (population 40’000) also has two Ständerat seats, a not at all problematic state of affairs. The canton itself is a broad mix of the increasingly left-wing city of Zürich itself, and Alabama it’s Conservative and nationalistic hinterland (we are in Eastern Switzerland after all).

It's seats currently go: SVP – 12; SP – 9; FDP – 5; GLP – 3; the CVP and Greens have 2 each; and the EVP and BDP one each. The two Ständerat seats are held by the SP and FDP.

In the Nationalrat race, the expectation is something of a repeat of the cantonal elections earlier this year, where the two ecologist parties made major gains; the SP and FDP dropped slightly; and the SVP lost big time. All three of the canton’s major parties are facing issues this time round. The SVP, whose virulent nationalist wing originated in Zürich, looks out of touch and divided, especially over the climate issue, between its Wineland-farmers wing and its Gold Coast-liberal wing. The SP has been split over the EU framework and the party's overall shift to the left, leading to notables like Chantal Galladé (ex-MP) and Daniel Frei (ex-local party president) defecting to the GLP. The FDP meanwhile still has messaging issues, and even it’s climate change u-turn seems to be creating the risk of voters deserting them towards the SVP. Exacerbating this, the SVP and FDP, usually allies, refused a list-connection this time round; although the SP are connected with the Greens, giving them some hope of avoiding losses.

The counter-point then, is the big gains expected by the GLP and Greens. Zürich is the Green-Liberals home canton, and is a natural stronghold given the large number of progressive, but economically liberal voters found in particular in the wealthier districts of Zürich city as well as the prosperous commuter villages on the Gold and Silver coasts and in the Säuliamt. They have also committed to a big Centrist alliance with the EVP, CVP and BDP. The former two will probably stagnate, but it’s looking like an (almost) inevitably that Rosemarie Quadranti, president of the BDP’s parliamentary delegation, will lose her seat.

The Greens also expect big gains; in part thanks to their strength amongst left-wing voters in the cities of Zürich and Winterthur; but they also win a big anti-nuclear vote in the North-west of the canton owing to the proximity of the Leibstadt and Beznau nuclear power plants. Also connected to the Greens and SP are the radical left Alternative-Liste, who have an outside shot at a seat, although it would probably take a gain of about 0.5%, which is unlikely based on the cantonal election results.

In the Ständerat race, much attention has been given to the campaign of Roger Köppel; a right-wing firebrand and editor of the (very) right wing Weltwoche magazine (famous for describing the Romands as the alcoholic, work shy “Greeks of Switzerland”). Despite, his unlimited cash, he won’t get elected though, he is too polarising; as mentioned, has pissed off much of his own party through his climate denialism; and is also the (ironically, you might say) laziest current member of parliament – having taken part of fewer votes than any other MP; and belonging to no committees. Most likely is the re-election the two incumbents of moderate-SP Daniel Jositsch and FDP Ruedi Noser; although the GLP’s Tiana Angelina Moser reckons she has a good shot.

[parochial boy]

Factoring into discussions about the Federal Council, Sotomo, alongside Le Temps have released their annual review of parliamentarians; classifying them from left to right on the basis of their voting records.

Perhaps most interesting is the below chart, which shows the polarisation of left and right since the 1990s, with UDC moving right and PS and Greens moving left (and demonstrating how the Greens and PS are virtually indistinguishable in practice)*.

It also picks up the GreenLiberals fairly pronounced shift to the left since their foundation. The fact that they come across as a solidly centre-left party is here is mostly a reflection of the, well, problems with a two dimensional scale. That said, they pretty clearly have moved left, thanks to their newer generally more left-leaning members; but also to meet their electorate, which has always defined itself as broadly left of centre.

Anyway, point being is that the graph shows why a Green Federal Councillor would probably be unpalatable even for the PDC. It would make the Federal Council more left wing than it ever has been, whereas a leftish GLP federal councillor like Kathrin Bertschy might be a good enough compromise to be elected. The problem here, though, being that relations between the GLP and the PS, who would be indispensible in this scenario, are really very bad at the moment.



*though probably worth some relativising to do here, the PLR's seeming shift left in the 90s/00s is probably down to its relative pro-EU/migration stance in an era where that was closer to the top of the agenda, rather than any ideological move on their part. The Green/PS shift left is certainly authentic, but over the last parliament has also been the result of a backs-against-the-wall stance against the PLR/UDC majority.

[parochial boy]

Thanks! Appreciate it!

I was going to write something, but went out and got drunk instead - but suffice to know that Valais and Fribourg are good places to look out for Green-Red pick ups; and the weird little cantons are esoteric and bizarre (can explant further if anyone wants to know).

Anyway, we have an election tomorrow (today!). Polls (mostly) close at midday, and results should start appearing at https://www.elections.admin.ch/fr/ch/ shortly after. I was planning on getting up for the results, but, all things considered maybe not...

Switzerland is a bit of a Shíthole tax haven, and it would be great if we could change that. All it takes is a two seat swing to kill off the right wing majority. Most of us don't vote for the right after all and it would be nice to kill of this "the Swiss are all racist, libertarian" bla, bla, bla... anyway

Allez, tschüss zäme. Croisons les doigts!

[parochial boy]

Vielen dank/merci beaucoup/mille grazie for all the updates!

Do you have a link for Swiss TV (ideally German but French ok too) that won't be geoblocked, to follow the results?

Thanks!

https://www.rts.ch/play/tv/rts-info/video/rts-un-en-direct?id=10774062 in French
https://www.srf.ch/play/tv in German

RTS have said they're not geoblocking elections coverage; I haven't seen anything similar from SRF although imagine it would be the same

Tender - not sure about the precise numbers; as you'd have to go look at every canton one by one. You also have 750'000 overseas Swiss, about 180'000 of whom are registered plus a few individual oddities, like Glarus has votes at age 16 and Neuchâtel lets foreigners vote for its senators.

[parochial boy]

Early results mainly coming from little rural areas - here is a live map

https://www.atlas.bfs.admin.ch/maps/12/fr/14580_14573_14572_242/23151.html

Looking like a first couple of seat losses for the UDC: in Appenzell-Ausserhoden the FDP look like winning the seat back, in part thanks to the SP standing aside. In Basel-stadt, looks like a big slap for the right-wing parties; the PS-Green alliance a currently winning an outright majority of the vote.

In Aargau, swings away from the right, SRF are projecting the PS, PDC(!) and PEV picking up a seat each; with the UDC, PBD (rip) and PLR all losing. UDC actually down 6% in Aargau!

[parochial boy]

Thanks again and for the map too, French TV is working but German isn't so I don't know what that says!

Also why do % vote movements in Swiss elections tend to be so small compared to most other countries?

Fatih Derder (talking about the moment) is whining about the left doing so well

Lots of reasons about swings, but the key ones are that:
 - The Magic Formula means that the government typically stays the same regardless of election results, which doesn't really tend incite people to vote different ways
 - the referendums and popular initiatives provide people with an effective veto, which again means that party choice is less important in practice
 - something of a conservative mindset that views voting for a new party as a big "risk"

Big news out of Geneva, the PS-Green Conseil d'état ticket has finished miles infront of the PLR challenge; and based on 77% of votes being counted in the Conseil National race, the Greens are actually heading towards being the largest party in the canton (an 13% surge including the Young Green list) with Ensemble à Gauche winning back a seat; and GreenLibs picking a surprise one (this is turning into a disaster for the PLR)

And the Greens have picked up a shock seat in the Ständerat in Glarus. Wow!

[parochial boy]

Thanks both.

Am I also right in thinking that the Magic Formula has remained unchanged in terms of party composition (if not actual seat numbers on the Federal Council) since 1959, apart from one term when the SVP went into opposition?

And the low turnout by comparison with elsewhere is presumably also at least partly explained by the high number of referendums? (only other country with a lot is US I think)

The CVP ans SVP swapped a seat before the whole Widmer-Schlumpf saga, so pretty much yeah.

Low turnout happens for similar reasons to the small swings; an actual election is relatively low stakes in part because referendums always provide that option to veto any law that is passed in parliament and because "what's the point, the federal council doesn't change anyway".

Swiss people have a tendancy not to really take their politics particularly seriously - kind of as a result of those factors - which also leads to lack of any kind of overarching personalities. Like, if you asked random people on the street who the president was this year, or to name any Federal Councillors; most would struggle. And that all factors in.

(although the thing to remember is that most polling seems to suggest that only around 20% of people never vote; about 30% vote on every occasion and around 50% pick and choose when to vote based on when something captures their attention. So in practice, winning elections comes down to convincing the big well of untapped voters that it is worth turning out this time.

Is there a list of the major party policies/manifesto planks this election?

err, a list? not that I'm aware of, there isn't so much of a tradition of national level manifestos. The cantonal parties are a little too different. But there are general things they say around particular themes.

Anyway, I'm off to a wine tasting now, so won't be online till later. So far looks like the Green wave is even bigger than predicted; all the government parties are doing badly, but the PS and PLR in particular seem to be doing a little bit worse than expected, and PDC maybe slightly more positive.

[parochial boy]

Some of the swings in Romandie are (by Swiss standards) absolutely crazy. The combined left up 10% in Geneva and Vaud. PS managing to be the largest party in Fribourg and Jura and the left winning an absolute majority of the vote in Jura as well as in Neuchâtel (and three out of four seats!). So much for Romandie trending right.

Overall, very happy! A little bit bittersweet about the PS, but the right wing majorty has been absolutely crushed - 17 seats lost! and the UDC gets its worse result since the beginning of the century, the pundit class were saying losing 3% would be a big sign that the game is up for them, and they lost almost 4%. Also, the combined left gets 68 seats, that's the second most ever, just one behind 2003.

Also very hard to deny the Greens a Federal Council seat after this.

Might be a stupid question, but how do the elections work in Graubünden? Wikipedia has some maps of party strength by district, and the whole of Graubünden is grayed out on them, and captioned "anderes Wahlsystem" (different electoral system).

For the most part its a sort of "first x past the post" by constituency - which makes talking about party vote shares a little bit meaningless

[parochial boy]

Unlikely to be honest, the Federal Council situation is far too complicated that people would be thinking about it as a primary reason to vote. It's always been the case that the Greens and PS share an electorate of people who are essentially happy to vote for either party. So in a year where ecology was on the agenda, it was always going to difficult for the PS to hold on to a lot of those voters. Add in the loss of some centrist pro-EU voters who don't like the PS's current stance on the framework agreement and you have an explanation for the result.

On the other hand though, I think a lot of the "death of the CVP" discussion did probably convince a number of people to turn out for them.