Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December
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  Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December
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Author Topic: Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December  (Read 52482 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #50 on: June 30, 2019, 11:49:32 AM »
« edited: June 30, 2019, 01:18:36 PM by parochial boy »

As we are gently rolling into election campaign mode Opération Libero, have announced they will be joining in the campaign by supporting "progressive, inclusive, internationalist and ecology minded" candidates in every canton. Previously, Libero have faced criticisms over their alleged proximity to the Green'Liberals*, but they will be doing this on a non-partisan basis and have already selected a list of 6 lead candidates, from each of the major parties (PS, PLR, Greens, Green'Liberals, PDC and the PBD - who it is probably slightly optimistic to call a "major" party these days) except the UDC (who would have thought?).

That said, they candidates they have selected are a little bit contradictory, which could lead to in level of incoherance in the way they campaign. For example it includes the ultra-europhile that is Nicola Forster (Green'Liberals/ZH), but also the likes of Arber Bullakaj (PS/SG), who like the Socialist party as a whole, has been reticient on some of the free movement provisions in the EU framework agreement. Likewise Sophia Buchs (PDC/GE) is a staunch supporter of introducing paternity leave, whereas Vera Stiffler (PLR/Graubunden), is very much opposed.

On that theme, a key campaign theme that is emerging is that of the "législature perdue". Referring to the PLR-UDC right-wing majority that tried to pass a number of unupopular reforms which were then voted down at referendums. Meaning that we are in exactly the same place as we were four years ago on increasingly pressing issues like healthcare costs, pensions or EU relations.

the UDC also held their annual conference this week, and have knuckled down the attacks on the left - accusing them of "climate hysteria", "wanting to tax us to oblivions" and noticeably "wanting to sell the country out" by signing the framework agreement. These are all logical campaign themes, meat that will get the base to turn out.

However, what is unusual is the degree to which the UDC are following the agenda; having spent the last 30 years setting it. Even if still offering the most right-wing answer to everything, they are now having to talk about health insurance, taxes or the climate; all of which are uncomfortable territory for the party. It was particularly noticeable that the only thing they could think to say about immigration was blaming it for "traffic jams and urban sprawl"; which is a very muted level of rhetoric compared to where they used to be.

Edit - also SRF interactive map showing the results of every federal election since 1975 by commune. Watch the map turn UDC green.

*The very fashionable Green'Liberals, seeing as Tamedia, the media conglomerate who own the Tages-Anzeiger, 20 Minutes/20 Minuten and half the countries local papers, seem to have unofficially thrown their support behind the centrist party.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #51 on: July 29, 2019, 08:35:23 AM »

It's kind of quiet with the summer vacation and all, but parties have been slowly finalising lists and apparentements/listenverbindungen ahead of October. I might write a bit about the specific situations in some of the cantons I find more interesting / know more about (ie Romandie, Zurich, Aargau and have nothing at all to say about, say, Thurgau); but the general situation at the moment seems to be a pretty mechanical renewal of all the Green/PS/minor lefty alliances - whereas the PLR and UDC have had much less success in renewing the alliances they had in 2015 (notably in Schaffhausen, where the Green Liberals ruled out a renewal of the 2015 alliance that almost took the PS's seat; all but guaranteeing that the left will keep one of the canton's two seats this year).

In various other news - on the right, the UDC Romand recently announced their support for major investments in Solar Power, as a "real solution" against climate change. On the face of it, making support for green policies part of their campaign seems somewhat contradictory considering the national parties rather explicit refusal to engage with the theme; but the UDC in French Switzerland are much more moderate than their German speaking equivalents (reflecting the local political realities, as all the parties do). Or perhaps they are just hoping that their electorate isn't paying attention, who knows?

On that theme, poor old Albert Rösti made a campaign visit to the Grütli meadow (very symbolic location in the Swiss national mythology); where the media refused to engage with his themes and pestered him with questions about the climate. Eventually he had to admit that, No, he isn't a climate denier; Yes, he does believe in man made climate change - but you will never protect the climate unless you protect Switzerland first (?) - and that nationalistic policies were vital to protect the environment and Switzerland's natural heritage, which the Red-Greens, by the way, would sell off to the EU the first chance they got.

As mentioned earlier, the UDC are in a bit of a bind with this issue, as their ideology runs straight into the interests of farmers - the party's historical base - who are really suffering with the changing weather. According to data released last week, Switzerland has already warmed by 2°C in the last century, and is warming twice as fast as the world average; leading to major implications for the already struggling agricultural industry.

Anyway, as always, a bit of comic relief coming from Romandie. PDC Vaud Conseiller National Claude Béglé made a recent trip to North Korea, and to the horror of his own party, and the amusement of everyone else, decided to tweet about what a wonderful society it was, and how well off the locals seemed to be. The latest development is that he is insisting that he has not gone insane, and meant what he said.

Likewise, notorious gobsh!te and anti-french firebrand Eric Stauffer has announced (another) political comeback after he was ejected from the Geneva parliament last year; remains to be seen what form this will take as no-one, even former allies, wants to be seen in the same room as him at the moment.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #52 on: August 05, 2019, 11:17:29 AM »


Likewise, notorious gobsh!te and anti-french firebrand Eric Stauffer has announced (another) political comeback after he was ejected from the Geneva parliament last year; remains to be seen what form this will take as no-one, even former allies, wants to be seen in the same room as him at the moment.

And, he's now appearing on a list allied with the PBD. Which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. An anti-everything loudmouth allied with the single most milquetoast party on the entire political spectrum. It's hard to even imagine they have anything in common, aside from a shared sense of despair.

PBD normally get less then 1% in Geneva anyway, so rip Stauffer.
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« Reply #53 on: August 05, 2019, 02:56:56 PM »

I though the Swiss electrical grid was almost entirely hydro/nuclear to begin with, so would investment in solar even help?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #54 on: August 05, 2019, 03:15:39 PM »

Um, good point (just googled, 90% hydro or nuclear). I thought is might have something to do with the plan to come out of nuclear energy by 2050. But I just watched an interview with Céline Amaudruz (Geneva UDC president) that mostly consisted of her saying " we don't want any more taxes" (which is what the PLR have been proposing after their miracle about-face on the issue) and "we are the world leaders at green transition".

So, uh, I think this is mostly just a panicked response to losing control of the agenda...?
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beesley
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« Reply #55 on: August 09, 2019, 05:33:14 AM »

Anyone able to summarise the general sitch rn? I have an interest in Switzerland so I know who the parties are etc, I have just paid no attention to the election.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #56 on: August 09, 2019, 06:35:14 AM »

Overall, the biggest thing to look out for is how the Greens and the CVP/PDC do. If, and it no longer seems like a long shot, the Greens do beat the PDC, that is going to have massive ramifications for how the Federal Council is structured. The Magic formula is still seen as more or less applying (2 people from the top three parties, one from the fourth). But if the fourth party changes, it is going to make the Federal Council elections in December an enormous bumfight.

Going party by party is probably the easiest way to summarise. So

UDC/PLR: Seem to be heading towards their worst result in decades. In part because they have lost alot of the old big hitters (Brunner, Freysinger; Maurer has to toe the line as he is in the federal council; Blocher is still around but looks increasingly out of touch). But mostly because of changing issue salience. Their pet topics of immigration and the EU have dropped well down the agenda; and things like healthcare, pensions and especially climate change; on which they have nothing useful to say, have climbed up it. They are trying to make the EU framework agreement* their major campaign theme - but it isn't really taking off at the moment, principally because very few people have even heard of it.

PS/SP: Were doing well, especially in German Switzerland up until the beginning of this year; on the back of issues like healthcare costs and pensions and transport infrastructure. This year hasn't been great so far, mostly this is because of voters jumping over to the Greens in the wake of the hot weather and the climate strikes (the Greens and the PS traditionally share the same electorate...); but they have also had some internal disputes over the EU framework agreement and between moderates and leftists (the former being wildly europhile, the latter expressing concerns about some of the free movement provisions in the agreement), which has meant a few big hitters defecting to the GreenLiberals in Zurich. They will probably end with about the same score as in 2015 though, based on cantonal election results from earlier this year; although there is a risk they lose out in the senate because a few big hitters in usually conservative cantons (Pascal Bruderer in Aargau most notably) are retiring. As Switzerland normally has a huge incumbency bias, losing the incumbents in those sorts of places will make them extremely hard to keep hold of.

PLR/FDP: Looked like they were going to be big winners up until the start of the year; but the climate issue, and their completely confusing u-turn on the issue, has hit them somewhat. They're also struggling in urban areas, but also suburban ones which are increasingly turning left, which led to them making surprising losses in some of the cantonal elections earlier in the year. In Romandie, which is where they are strongest, and have done the best in recent years, they are currently struggling with a corruption affair involving a member of the Geneva government; which has deeply damaged their creditability. So likely to make a small loss at the moment.

PDC/CVP: Are struggling for broadly structural reasons. They are still identified as the Catholic party, and despite attempts to reposition themselves as the "family values" party still don't have much of an identity. The current president tried to move them to the right, but eventually lost out against the sheer inertia that keeps the party broadly in the middle. They may have also pissed of much of their base by spending the last 4 years as de facto allies of the Socialists against the PLR/UDC majority. Expect them to lose a bit more this year, with a potential risk of actually falling behing the greens in the popular vote - even if they keep more senators.

Greens: Flying high largely thanks to the climate issue. They made massive gains in cantonal elections in German Switzerland earlier in the year, and have been gaining constantly in Romandie for the last 3 years or so. The hot weather this summer helps them too - and if they get over 10%, or even beat the PDC, they will start to make a serious claim for a Federal Council seat.

GreenLiberals: Have been polling well, but aside from their result in Zurich in March, actual election results haven't necessarily corroborated that. The climate issue also helps them, but as the most visibly pro-EU party they would also stand to benefit from the framework agreement climbing up the agenda. They should make gains this year, but probably only to a limited extent outside of their usual heartlands.

BDP/PBD: Struggling principally because Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf is no longer around, and they don't really have any other selling points. They have moved more and more to left over recent years, at the moment seeming to be somewhere vaguely left of the GreenLiberals. Scored a media coup with the campaign line "boring but good" earlier this year. Although an alliance in Geneva (where they are irrelevant) with the firebrand right-wing populist Eric Stauffer has made that line seem a bit ironic - and led to outraged and horrified reactions by the national PBD leadership, who have announced that they will reject any application by Stauffer to join the party. Overall they will probably be wiped out outside of Bern, the Grisons and Martin Landolt's seat in Glarus.

Of the minor parties - the religious ones basically have the same electorate they always have. The regionalist right populists (Lega in Ticino and MCG in Geneva) are in a similar situation to the SVP. With the MCG, it is exacerbated by the ongoing saga with ex-president Stauffer, and they will probably lose their only seat. The various far left parties have vague hopes of winning seats in Zurich, Geneva and Vaud - as well as holding on to their one in Neuchâtel. Although in each case it will be difficult. In Zurich, the Altnerative-List is too small outside of the city itself; in Geneva and Vaud they are handicapped by the age old tradition of infighting between the Trots (SolidaritéS) and the Marxists (the Parti du Travail/Parti Ouvrier Populaire); and in Neuchâtel, they need to be able to keep in front of the surging Greens in order to hold the seat.

To add to all of that, Swiss parties are allowed to "join" their lists with other parties, so that seats get allocated to them on the basis of the combined score of all their lists**. The Socialists-Greens and minor far lefties have mechanically joined their lists across the board this year.

The "Centre" (GreenLiberals, PDC, PBD and the Evangelical Party) had announced an intention to do the same - but it hasn't worked out in practice, in part because there are very few cantons where more than one of those parties is relevant. Eg PDC are big in Geneva or Valais, but none of the others are; GreenLiberals are big in Vaud and Bern, but none of the others are. So there isn't much benefit to an alliance. Add to that, there have been a few instances of Centrist parties joining the left (GreenLiberals in Graubunden) or right (PDC in Geneva) as they would stand to gain more from doing so.

The PLR and UDC haven't had much success in renewing alliances either this year (eg, hasn't happened in Vaud or Neuchatel), for various reasons - ideological differences being to big, or the UDC feeling that it doesn't benefit them.

So all in all, the absence, or presence, of apparentements/Listenverbindungen may benefit the left this year.

*basically the EU has got fed up of the Swiss bilateral arrangement, and told the Swiss they need to come to a more formal arrangement - or else

** And beyond that they can "sub-join" lists, which is why you have the phenomenon of parties presenting several lists. For example, a party might stand a "Main" list, "youth" list, "seniors" list and "migrants" list all in the same canton,  in order to give voters a better choice of candidates, or to attract certain demographics to turn out. As these lists are all "sub-joined" it doesn't actually matter which one you vote for, as the party would win seats on the combined total votes cast for all of their lists. Best example of this is the PDC who are standing 9 different lists in Aargau this year.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #57 on: August 21, 2019, 03:01:02 AM »

The UDC, even on a bad year, still manage to be at the centre of attention with a controversial new poster



Showing the Swiss apple being "infested" by worms coloured to represent the EU but also the other parties; Greens, Socialists, PDC and, notably, the UDC's usual allies of the PLR. Translation is "worms for our apple? No thanks!", while the German version roughly translates as "should the left and the nice guys ruin Switzerland?"

Pretty obviously, the poster has generated lively reactions, and is in the tradition (indeed a move back to) the controversial posters for which the UDC is famous. However, having said that, it is interesting that the focus has changed somewhat; usually, these sorts of posters are directed at stirring up fears about foreigners, whereas the target is now actually other parties.

It may work, but at the same time, smells of desperation on their part. As in "we know you don't care about this issue, but we are going to carry on banging on about it over and over again". The risk is, people don't understand, or care, about the framework agreement at the moment - which inherently means the UDC's electorate aren't motivated to turn out this time. So scare tactics may not work on an issue that is vague and abstract, but could end up mobilising an anti-UDC vote (as well as ruin prospective apparentements with the PLR). In that respect, even a number of UDC hardliners have expressed their concerns over the poster.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #58 on: August 28, 2019, 02:34:15 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2019, 02:19:57 PM by parochial boy »

Posting principally for my own interest, but I just stumbled on https://swissvotes.ch/, which has a comprehensive dataset of ever referendum ever held. Including detailed results & maps, but also which parties campaigned for what, the federal council position and so on...

Canton of Zurich is also voting on Sunday on whether to accept the corporate tax reforms that were passed at the national level in May. That is, each canton now has to accept it's own tax rates (theoretically) without the old loophole that let companies not pay taxes on if the bulk of their revenues raised outside of Switzerland. Other cantons may be holding votes, but I only realised this was going on when the voting material turned up, and haven't bothered to look in any more detail.

Most of the parties have also released details of their election campaign budgets. The PLR have the biggest fund, with about CHF3.5m (that's the same in USD); followed by the PDC with CHF2m and the PS with CHF1.5m. The Greens have a fund of just CHF180k - although these are all numbers for the national parties; cantonal and local parties, as well as individual candidates themselves will contribute their own funds; with UDC (ex-MCG) Roland Zacharias leading the pack with the intention to spend about CHF200k of his own money on failing to get elected in Valais.

Notice that the UDC haven't released any figures. The party have a hush-hush, slightly dodgy trust fund in canton Zug (where else, lol), with an unspecified level of funds and unknown source... Not suprisingly campaign finance transparency has become a fairly major issue as of late, with a number of cantons (including that progressive bastion that is, erm, Schwyz), having passed referendums that would force parties to disclose their funding and sources.
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crals
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« Reply #59 on: August 30, 2019, 08:10:56 AM »

Why does Switzerland not have same-sex marriage yet?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #60 on: August 30, 2019, 08:34:54 AM »

No good reason, other than a general cultural wariness of "change", but much more importantly is an institutional structure that tends to delay changing things.

For example, gay marriage has had overwhelming public support for a while now (including from the evangelical churches).

The legislation was already introduced to parliament in, get this, 2013. It only finally went through the parliamentary consultation stage earlier this year, with unanimous support (well, except for the usual suspects). That delay itself is a function of the cantonal system, parliamentary calendar, and the fact that MPs are theoretically only part timers. The final legislation will now be put off until after the election, and once it passses it will inevitably get challenged and go to a referendum, which probably won't happen until 2021. That all means the whole process taking basically 8 years from start to finish
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parochial boy
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« Reply #61 on: August 30, 2019, 04:00:51 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2019, 04:04:25 PM by parochial boy »

Oh, and the Question Jurassienne is back in the news again today, after the high court of the canton of Bern upheld the prefecture of the Jura Bernois's decision to annull the result of the 2017 referendum where Moutier voted by a 3% margin to leave Bern join the canton of Jura. So at the moment, it looks like Moutier is staying where it is.

This evening has seen a big protest among secessionists demanding, as a minimum, that the vote be reheld. The saga continues. (I feel there is some sort of a point to be made about Brexit here, or cancelling referendums, or whatever. Because we're really showing how things should be done with this one *cough*).
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parochial boy
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« Reply #62 on: September 05, 2019, 11:38:11 AM »
« Edited: September 05, 2019, 12:35:46 PM by parochial boy »

New SRG/Sotomo poll, and it has actually happened, the Greens are now polling in front of the PDC



Everything else is as was (and obligatory warning about Swiss election polling) - but wow if this winds up actually being the case in October. tabs here (the actual voter movements are worth paying attention to, backing up the idea that the Green/GLP gains and the SVP losses are essentially made up of non-voters)
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« Reply #63 on: September 05, 2019, 12:10:54 PM »

When was the last time the top 4 weren't the SVP, SP, FDP and CVP? (in any order)

Also, would that result give one member of the Federal Council to the Greens over CVP for sure or is that unclear?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #64 on: September 05, 2019, 12:32:07 PM »

When was the last time the top 4 weren't the SVP, SP, FDP and CVP? (in any order)

Technically 1917, as the Farmers, Traders and Independents only came into existence for the 1919 elections (which were the first under PR). The Christian Democrats and their predecessors have never been out of the top 4; and have been Federal Council since 1892.

Quote
Also, would that result give one member of the Federal Council to the Greens over CVP for sure or is that unclear?
Nothing for certain, but I would hunch that it is very, very unlikely that the PDC would be replaced by the Greens. Basically you have a few things to take into account:

 - Even if the PDC drop behind the Greens, they will win more seats in the Ständerat/Conseil des Etats (they have 13 at the moment to the Greens 1, there is a massive incumbency bias, and the PDC are "protected" by their ability to win crossover support as the Centrist party and by having their strongholds in smaller cantons). So it is still a near certainty that the PDC wind up with more elected MP's voting in Federal Council elections

 - The PS are on record as saying they want the Greens to replace the PLR or UDC Federal Councillor in order to restore a "balanced" Federal Council, instead of the right wing majority one we have at the moment

 - From their perspective, the PLR and UDC have made positive sounds about giving the Greens a seat; but no way do they give one of their own ones away

So on balance, I can't see the composition changing, as the left and the rights' perspectives tend to cancel each other out, even if both are open the Greens moving in. That is, unless there is enough of a left shift to give the Greens and Socialists (in tandem with the PDC and the smaller Centrist parties) some way of out manipulating the right.

The bigger shake up, I think, is that it will mean a definitive end to the Magic Formula logic, and could be paving the way for actual contested Federal Council elections (or at least, intense behind the scenes bartering) as opposed to the formulaic intra-party ones we have had since the 19050s.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #65 on: September 20, 2019, 02:28:16 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2019, 06:49:40 AM by parochial boy »

Some cantonal level polling dribbling out today:

First up, Der Tagi has some polling for Zürich's two ständerat seats (paywalled, but NZZ's article is here) -

Daniel Jositsch (PS) - 63%
Rudi Noeser (FDP) - 41%
Roger Köppel (SVP) - 31%
Tiana Angelina Moser (GLP) - 21%
Marionna Schlatter (Greens) - 15%
Nicole Barandun (CVP) - 15%
Nik Gugger (EVP) - 4%

Meaning Jositsch gets re-elected in the first round - and all second round scenarios have Noeser comfortably re-elected in the second. Moser beats Köppel to third if Schlatter stands down, but in reality, looks very far fetched for the Green'Liberals to win back the seat they lost in 2015. And Köppel's high profile campaign seems to be going nowhere

Nationalrat numbers were (changes on 2015)
SVP - 27,3% (-3,4%)
SP - 10,3% (-1,1%)
FDP - 14,7% (-0,6%)
GLP - 12,6% (+4,4%)
Greens - 10,7% (+3,8%)
CVP - 3,7% (-0,5%)
PBD - 1,5% (-2,1%)
EVP - 2,8% (-0,3%)

Good for the left. GLP gains somewhat neutralised by the 3 point drop for their centrist allies in the PBD, PEV and PDC.

In Valais, Le Nouvelliste had numbers (with changes on 2015) of:

PDC - 36.1% (-3.4%)
UDC - 21.7% (-0.4%)
PLR - 17% (-1.1%)
PS - 12.8% (-0.5%)
Greens - 8.8% (+3.9%)
PVL, PCS & Valais Citzens Movements - 3.6% combined

Not helpful showing the last three together as the GreenLibs' votes will flow into the PLR, and PCS's into the PS/Green combined score. But on those numbers, it should mean the Green's picking up one of the four seats currently held by the PDC.

They also had Conseil d'Etat numbers of
Beat Rieder (CVP Oberwallis) - 43%
Marianne Maret (PDC) - 31%
Matthias Reynard (PS) - 30%
Philippe Nantermod (PLR) - 27%
Cyrille Fauchère (UDC) - 18%
Brigitte Wolf (Greens) - 14%
Michael Kreuzer (SVP) - 12%

Rieder wins thanks to the Oberwallis bloc vote, but if he doesn't make it through in the first round there could be enough vote splitting on the right in the second round for Reynard to become the PS's first ever senator from the canton.

Edit, there's also one from Graubünden. We're really doing the big cantons wallah

SVP - 29,1% (-0,6%)
SP - 16,8% (-0,8%)
CVP - 16,7% (-0,1%)
FDP - 14,2% (+0,9%)
BDP 9,3% (-5,2%)
GLP - 9,1% (+1,2%)
Greens - 4,8% (didn't stand last time).

Confirming suspicions of RIP BDP who would lose their sole seat in the canton (starting to look dangerously like they'll only have 2 seats left come the 20th). Thanks to the Listenverbundungen, that should mean the CVP/FDP/BDP sharing two out of the five seats (FDP winning the one the BDP currently hold, basically); the PS/GreenLibs/Greens sharing two (one apiece for the PS and GLP, a gain of one for the GLP); while the SVP lose one of the two they currently hold.

Oh, and Bern too, apparently
SVP - 29,4% (-3,7%)
PS - 20,3% (+0,6%)
Greens - 12,0% (+3,5%)
FDP - 10,0% (+0,7%)
BDP - 9,1% (-2,7%)
GLP - 8,3% (+2,3%)
EVP - 3,7% (-0,6%)
Others - 7,2%

This is my favourite one so far. They have 24 seats, so I'm not doing the maths, but I think the big centrist alliance means Marianne Streif of the EVP saves her seat.

In other news, the PDC managed to create a storm this week - basically google any (relatively notable) candidate, and the first link takes you through to a website set up by the PDC attacking the candidates' and their parties' policies.

You know, basically normal stuff in the rest of the world (like literally, it was stuff like attacking the PLR for not being serious on climate change); but a "despicable outrage" in the high intensity world of Swiss politics. Enough for PDC candidates to denounce their own party, and apparently even bad enough that the website now appears to be down. Poor old Christian Democrats just can't stop winning, lol.
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« Reply #66 on: September 24, 2019, 02:26:10 AM »

According to the University of St Gallen, the average Swiss person has a net wealth (exlcuding pension savings) of CHF215'000 (USD215'000) - higher than ever, although more unequally distributed than ever. Most people actually have a net wealth of under chf50'000, and one in four have no net wealth at all.

In particular, the three richest cantons of Schwyz (chf 718'500 per person); Nidwald (chf 677'400 per person) and Zug (chf 492'300 per person) are well ahead of everywhere else - including the major financial centres of Zurich and Geneva.

I wonder what those three cantons have in common? hmm... 🤔
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parochial boy
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« Reply #67 on: September 27, 2019, 03:02:40 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2019, 01:31:36 PM by parochial boy »

"Big" campaign news this week include the UDC Neuchâtel's Yvan Perrin forgetting to turn up to a debate; a Pirate Party wraparound cover on the free daily "20 Minuten" this morning (which I read, and competely failed to realised was a political advert - so obviously highly succesful). Ticinos' Lega (with UDC support) conseil des états candidate is also in a bit of trouble as it turns out he has been hiring Italians, which is quite funny for a party whose raison d'être is to throw the Italians out.

Parliament also voted to introduce a tax on all plane tickets, ranging from 30-120 francs per ticket - so expect a referendum on that soon.

As it's only three weeks, I thought I'd preview the situation in a few of cantons, with what is going on and what is likely to happen.

Staring with Aargau
Aargau is the 5th most populous canton. A land of small medieval and industrial towns and of urban sprawl between Zurich and Basel; meaning despite a population of 700'000, it has no towns of more than 20'000. As such, the canton has a well deserved reputation for Conservatism (and for white socks, motorways and Bosnians...), it gave the SVP/UDC 38% of the vote in 2015, their 4th best score in the country. In many ways, it functions as a sort of bellweather for German Switzerland specificially. True to that, as a largely suburban and densely populated region, it has been subjected to a lot of the forces that have seen the Swiss German cantons veering left over the last 2-3 years, making it a good place to look for Green-red pick-ups in three weeks.

Currently, Aargau's Conseil National delegation is made up of
SVP - 7 seats
FDP - 3 seats
SP - 2 seats
CVP, Greens, GLP and BDP - 1 each

It's two seats in the Conseil des états are held by the SP's Pascale Bruderer and FDP's Phillipe Müller.

In the race for the upper house, both seats are in fact up for grabs as both Müller and Bruderer are stepping down this year. Müller's seat should fairly mechanically be filled by the FDP's Thierry Burkart, but the one vacated by Bruderer is subject to a massive fight between SP and SVP. A lot of the conventional wisdom has been that the SP's chance of keeping the seat was almost zero. Bruderer was the first Socialist to hold the seat since 1945, and was a popular centrist (and there have been rumours that her decision to step down was in protest at the SP's swing to the left in recent years).

In the race to replace her, the SP have picked ex-Juso president Cédric Wermuth, a figure very much on the left of the party. Although he might seem like a bad fit for the canton; he does actually have a good shot. He has been running a very enthusiastic campaign (involving Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's campaign manager allegedly), and has definitely motivated the latent left wing vote in the canton.

Against him, is the SVP's Hansjörg Knecht - and the overall result probably depends on Knecht's ability to win over FDP voters' second votes.

In the Conseil National race, this looks like it could be a particularly tricky canton for the SVP. Added to the overall factors working against them (issue salience etc....), they have had quite a few scandals this yearr. Firstly, their Regierungsratin (cantonal minister), Franziska Roth essentially had to be sacked by the party for being unable to do her job - to the point that the rest of the cantonal executive were refusing to work with her. This was followed by MP Luzi Stamm being thrown out of the party after he was caught bringing cocaine into the parliament building in Bern - not even a first offence as he had previously been caught with counterfeit money - also in the Bundeshaus. Having said that, this is one of the few cantons where they have renewed the 2015 listenverbindung with the FDP (which won the FDP a seat in 2015), which could limit the seat losses. The FDP would like to keep their third seat, but a dropping UDC vote could put it in danger even if the FDP's own score holds up.

Overall, there are 34 separate lists running for the 16 available seats (including, as mentioned, the absurd spectacle of 9 separate CVP ones). It should be a good canton for the left (as mentioned, urbanisation of the suburbs and a new type of left friendly voter). The PS and Greens's lists are connected (with the Pirates as well), which should lead to a pick up of at least one (likely Green) seat.

In the centre, the BDP and EVP are connected. This should be enough for the BDP to keep their seat (the two parties got over 8% combined in 2015). Although a particularly bad performance (ie, polls suggesting they'll lose a third of their vote), could actually lead to the EVP winning the seat off of them. The Green Liberals and PDC are also connected, which means the GLP's gains and PDC's losses should more or less cancel out.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #68 on: September 27, 2019, 10:53:50 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2019, 11:31:14 AM by parochial boy »

And coincidentally, Die Aargauer Zeitung and Sotomo have released some polling today.

For the Ständerat:

Thierry Burkart (FDP) - 43%
Hansjörg Knecht (SVP) - 38%
Cédric Wermuth (SP) - 29%
Marianne Binder-Keller (CVP) - 17%
Rüth Muri (Greens) - 16%
Beat Flach (GLP) - 12%

everyone else in single figures, and both second round polls show Knecht holding on to his ~10 point lead.

In the Nationalrat, with scores compared to 2015

SVP - 33.9% (-4.1%)
PS - 16.9% (+0.8%)
FDP - 15.2% (+0.1%)
Greens - 8.6%  (+3.1%)
GLP - 8.5% (+3.3%)
CVP - 7.8% (-0.8%)
EVP - 3.2% (-0.1%)
BDP - 2.7% (-2.4%!)

As I was saying basically. Translated into real results it would mean the SVP's worst score in the canton since the start of the century; and the Green and GLP's highest ever scores.It also looks like another wipe out for the BDP; and their combined score looks low enough that even the EVP wouldn't hold on to the seat. (actually quick mental maths suggests the EVP might keep it, but touch and go...)
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parochial boy
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« Reply #69 on: September 28, 2019, 07:07:43 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2019, 01:56:52 PM by parochial boy »

One more poll - Lucerne


In their wisdom, Luzerner Zeitung deciding to only mention the numbers for a few parties (but cribbed the wikipedia numbers)
SVP - 25,0% (-3.5%)
CVP - 22,3% (-1,6%)
FDP - 17,3% (-1,2%)
SP - 14,3% (+0,7%)
Greens - 11,4% (+4,3%)
GLP - 8,6% (+2,8%)

Listeverbindungen are SP/Greens/GLP(and Intégrale Politik) and FDP/CVP with the SVP going it alone. As Lucerne has lost a seat for demographic reasons this time round, this  would translate into 2 seats for the CVP; 2 for the FDP; 2 for the SVP and one a piece for the SP, Greens and GreenLibs. A gain of one seat for the GLP, while the SVP and CVP lose one each.

In the Ständerat race, the poll suggests FDP's Damian Müller is easily re-elected; CVP's Gmür-Schönenberger and SVP's Grüter are in a close race for second; but a second round would easily see the CVP retain the outgoing Konrad Graber's seat.
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Cranberry
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« Reply #70 on: September 28, 2019, 09:51:49 AM »

How likely do you think it will be that the Greens will surpass the CVP, and what effects, if any, will it really have? Bundesräte are elected by the whole Nationalrat iirc, so the mere fact would not render the Zauberformel moot, would it? Then again, Greens plus GreenLiberals would likely score in or above the 15% range, so you couldn't really deny that section their Bundesrat while granting one to the CVP, could you?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #71 on: September 28, 2019, 11:56:43 AM »

How likely do you think it will be that the Greens will surpass the CVP, and what effects, if any, will it really have? Bundesräte are elected by the whole Nationalrat iirc, so the mere fact would not render the Zauberformel moot, would it? Then again, Greens plus GreenLiberals would likely score in or above the 15% range, so you couldn't really deny that section their Bundesrat while granting one to the CVP, could you?

In popular vote terms, I think there is every chance the Greens finish up in front of the Christian Democrats. For the most part, polling in Switzerland tends to be fairly accurate (as it's a fairly easy exercise in a country where a party gaining 3% is considered a "massive swing"), but iirc from polling for 2015 and some of the cantonal votes, it does tend to underestimate swings when they do happen. Not to say that this means they are definitely underestmating GLP and Green gains this time (or the UDC going the other way), but it is definitely something to look out for.

As for the Federal Council, it's elected by both houses of parliament. That's already something to look out for, as the PDC/CVP will win far more seats in the Ständerat; even if they fall behind the Greens in the popular vote. Simple fact is, they have a lot of incumbents (which matters a lot), an advantage in being strong in the smaller cantons, and the ability to win votes from left and right. The Greens, meanwhile, have one conseillère aux états, who is stepping down anyway; and probably only really three realistic shots at getting people elected this year (in Bern, Geneva and Vaud; and Geneva is the only one I would rate as being more likely than not). So, there is almost no way that the Greens actually surpass the CVP/PDC in terms of numbers of parliamentarians.

Having said that, both the UDC and PLR have so far indicated that they would be happy to see the Greens in the Federal Council should they finish fourth. The problem is, while the UDC and PLR reckon this mechanically means the Greens in and CVP out, the PS (and Greens too) would want to keep the PDC in and replace one of the PLR or UDC federal councillors so as to restore an ideologically "balanced" Federal Council rather than the current right wing majority. If the GLP/Green combined score is bigger than the PLR's, then you would have a further case to make that someone from one of the two parties should replace the not very popular Ignazio Cassis.

Obviously, there is no way in hell the PLR or UDC will accept that; and there is a reason that the Greens and Green Liberals are different parties (to the extent that Bäumle has already ruled out trying for a joint seat - he's no longer in charge, and the rest of the GLP has moved to his left in recent years, but I would still take what he has to say into account). So unless there is a massive left-surge then I would basically assume that the right will block any maneouvres to kick out Cassis; and that the PDC (along with the other centrists), will have a big enough chunk of the vote to avoid losing their seat.

But yeah, it's obviously looking pretty bad for the Magic Formula (even to the extent it "survived" the Blocher years) as it is currently understood. Which makes sense in a way, seeing as the factors it was built to overcome don't really exist anymore. But honestly, I don't really see it meaning the end of the "Swiss model". Most cantonal governments are directly elected, and work just fine. The "concordance" tradition is deeply enough entrenched that you probably don't need the deliberately assembled government to hold things together.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #72 on: September 29, 2019, 06:24:07 AM »
« Edited: September 30, 2019, 06:05:38 AM by parochial boy »

One last Tamedia/LeeWas national poll gives numbers of:

UDC - 27.9% (-1.5%)
PS - 18.0% (-0.8%)
PLR - 15.6% (-0.8%)
PDC - 10.4% (-1.2%)
Greens - 10.2% (+3.1%)
GLP - 7.2% (+2.6%)
PBD - 3.3% (-0.9%)

Relatively encouraging for the UDC (although, it's actually their worst score in a Tamedia poll yet), terrible for the PLR given what their expectations were at the start of the year. Although, I'm always a bit sceptical of Tamedia polls - I took part in this one twice, which... tells you a little it about what you need to know.

Also a huge demonstration for the climate yesterday in Bern - up to 100'000 people turned up; which is pretty incredible for a city with a population of just 140'000. Eg...


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parochial boy
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« Reply #73 on: October 03, 2019, 02:46:17 AM »

Moving on to the left wing heartland that is the Jurassic arc, or the cantons of Jura and Neuchâtel

Jura
Has two seats in the Conseil National, with the PDC and PS both holding one seat each. Likewise, its two seats in the Conseil des Etats are shared by the same two parties.

In both races, it is basically a guarantee that the two parties, which dominate the canton’s politics, retain their two seats. The PS benefit from the canton being a left-wing stronghold (despite being rural and working class), while the PDC, who tend to be rather left leaning compared to the national party, benefit from the canton’s Catholicism, in particular when bearing in mind the role that religion played in the separatist.

As Jura only has two seats, the domination of these two parties makes it typically very difficult to move seats. Having said that, in the past, a PLR-UDC apparentement did once manage to win a seat in the Conseil National, even despite the UDC’s weakness in the canton, principally a result of them being on the wrong side of the separatist conflict. This year, the smaller PCSI (Independent Christian-Social Party, a left Christian party that emerged during the separatist conflict) had proposed a large left wing alliance including them, the Greens, PS and the POP (Parti du Travail) in the hope of snatching the second seat. However for not entirely clear reasons, the PS rejected the proposal, and the Greens then refused to go with the PCSI. On the right, the PLR also refused to ally with the UDC meaning that there are no apparentements in the canton – all but guaranteeing the seats remain as they are. There has been some speculation that the ongoing brouhaha in Moutier (now officially holding its second referendum on the 21st June 2020) might impact the scenario in Jura, but basically the entire Jurassien political spectrum supports Moutier joining, which cancels out any potential impact really.

In the Conseil des Etats the same applies, Jura is only one of two cantons that elects its senators proportionately (the other being Neuchâtel), making it very difficult to dislodge the PDC/PS duo.

Neuchâtel
Another left stronghold thanks principally to its watchmaking industry (and the university in Neuchâtel itself), the canton fairly reliably splits its four Conseil National seats evenly between left and right. Currently the PLR and UDC on the right; and the PS and POP on the left all hold one a piece.

Once again, the small number of seats makes it hard to shift. However, the UDC’s seat in particular is at risk. It’s current MP Raymond Clottu quit the party and is not standing again, and the party suffered a huge reverse at the cantonal elections, losing half of their vote share, after cantonal minister Yvan Perrin suffered a burn out and stood down from the government. Perrin is leading the UDC’s list this time, but seems to have gone awol, leading to concerns about his health (again), and leading on to the other parties sensing an opportunity to take the UDC’s seat.

On the right, the PLR are hopeful of picking it up, as they had an excellent cantonal election result and are by some distance the largest party in the canton. However, they failed to agree any apparentements, as the GreenLiberals rejected an alliance, making the job harder. On the left, the PS, Greens and hard-left POP have agreed a big alliance. The Greens and POP have also sub-joined their lists, which should mean whichever of the two wins more votes gets the left’s second seat. The seat is currently held by POP mayor of Le Locle Denis De La Reusille, making it the only seat held by the Communists in the country; although he faces a tough battle to overcome the surging Greens. The left reckon they might have the ability to grab the UDC’s. That would the joint lists getting three times as many votes as the UDC, but also getting about 15% more than whatever the PLR get. They did achieve this both in 2015 and the 2017 cantonal elections, but as the disspearing UDC vote could funnel into the PLR, it makes the task slightly harder than in previous elections.

The Conseil des Etats seats are, like in Jura, elected proportionally. As the PLR and PS are by far the two dominant parties, it is pretty much guaranteed that they will retain their seats.
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« Reply #74 on: October 03, 2019, 10:57:11 AM »

Wouldn't being working class be an advantage to the PS? I was under the impression they weren't THAT sort of socialists
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