Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December

[CityofSinners]

PS coming out in favour of joining the EU is interesting. I'm sure that another discussion/referendum on Swiss-EU relations will be coming in a few years. Feels like a try to position the party early for this debate.

With the collapse of the framework negotiations more and more agreements will either expire or need to be updated over the next years. At some point there will be a lot of pressure from companies to find a solution to protect their access to the EU market.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, some sort of progress on EU relations needs to happen ond fairly sharpish. The biggest and most urgen at the moment is energy market - as in, once the agreement to import eletricity from the EU's grid expires then Switzerland gets cut off and we're left with a gap of about 20% of our power needs and right now the Federal Council sitting in this kind of complacent inaction or the PLR and UDC wasting time by arguing about things like new nuclear power plants that are never going to happen is just wasting time. So in that respect, the PS kickstarting things here isn't the worst things.

But on the whole - I dunno if it's at all good politics. Like the PS's position overall just looks a bit coherent. You knock of the framework agreement because of the rules on labour rights and state aid but now you want an even deeper integration of the EU rules. I mean sure, as it turns out the EU would have been prepared to move on the issue and it was the PLR/UDC not budging on access to welfare that firebombed the thing but still - optically you criticise the EU for being neoliberal then announce your solution is to join it? I mean yea, I get the argument that you need to in the EU to move it but no-one seriously believes that the EU is going to overhaul the Maastricht rules because Switzerland of all places joining it.

In that respect, it just looks a bit silly because the PS suggest something that has essentially no public support and no chance of happening. Like, yeah, the framework agreement and the war in Ukraine have moved the cards a little bit, but not so much as to change the fundamental picture. Whilst the PS just look like they are flailing around a bit. Trying to claim to a pro-EU identity by hooking themselves to something that even most pro-EU people don't actually want at the moment; all the while regularly targetting the EU's economic or fiscal policy, or its policy on migrants. It just seems like they don't really know what they are talking about, who they are dealing with and that they are just coming up with not very well thought through solutions that will just alienate more people than they attract.

Dissapointing really, the degree to which their issues at the moment are self inflicted.

[parochial boy]

In other news, Geneva picked a fight with Uber... and won, so now all Uber drivers must be considered as employees and guaranteed minimum hours at the minimum wage (23 francs, ~25 dollars an hour).

Which is nice. But to be honest, the canton is small enough and the public transport hs been built up enough over the last few years that I struggle to identify exactly when you would even need to get an uber. The real question is which other cantons follow suit; Zürich and Vaud already seem to have intentions in that direction

[parochial boy]

Migros membership said no the selling alcohol in the end. 630'000 votes cast, which is a 29% turnout of the membership, and equates to al almost 15% turnout relative to the whole country.

For fun, a map by co-operative - across the board rejection but higher support in Latin Switzerland. Not sure about Ticino, but the Valais in particular does have a certain reputation for the locals' fondness for the drink.

[parochial boy]

Not a poll, but rather a projectionfrom GFS.Bern reported in the NZZ that is based on cantonal election results since 2019 and definitely has slightly "shock poll" vibes. At least by Swiss standards.

UDV/SVP - 24,7% (-0,9%)
Greens - 16,0% (+2,8%)
PS/SP - 14,5% (-2,3%)
PLR/FDP - 14,1% (-1,0%)
Centre - 12,4% (-1,4% relative the combined PDC/PBD score in 2019)
Green'Liberals - 10,8% (+ 3,0%)

Or in other words, the Greens surge into second place in front of the Socialists and Radicals. In what would be a historic reversal of the traditional order. Obviously it's no secret that the two old parties have been had a torrid time over the last couple of years. Both beset by a lack of clarity of European politics, confused messaging and missing the Zeitgeist. But still, to put it mildly, replicated in a federal election this would kill the Magic Formula stone dead.

(I have my doubts though, I don't have the impression the Greens have surged that much even since 2019 - and I definitely wouldn't expect the left to progress overall at the moment. Even holding 2019 levels would be something of a success. That combined Green-GLP score of nearly 27% though, got to be something close to the highest in the world for ecologist parties?)

[parochial boy]

Because it's the national holiday tomorrow, here is an update.

25th September Federal votations
There might be a slightly more meaningful election going on south of the border on the same day. Or so I hear. But there are also 4 federal level votes going on here:

1. Referendum on the abolition of "anticipated tax". I have no idea how this translates to English. Essentially, any bonds or interest bearing financial instruments that are issued in Switzerland are currently subject to a 35% tax at source, in order to ensure that the holders of these instruments do not escape declaring them and the tax to which they are subject. The reform would simply abolish this tax at source as well as stamp duty that is due on the sale and purchase of these instruments (yes, Switzerland taxes financial transactions, it's why we're so poor...).

Anyway, the reform is supported by the right including the ("most progressive party in Switzerland ") Green Liberals, arguing that the tax discourages Swiss companies from issuing bonds on the Swiss market and investors from buying Swiss debt instruments because of the tax. It's why we're... so poor... you see. And it's opposed by the left, who don't want hand outs to the rich and don't want to make tax evasion and avoidance easier.

2. Reform of AVS (social security)
and
3. Additional financing of AVS through VAT

The two go together, and both need to be accepted in order for the reform to be implemented. The idea is to strengthen the financing of AVS (the public pension system) which is facing a cash shortfall for the same sorts of reasons anywhere is. Part of this is done through an increase of the VAT rate to 8,1% from the current 7,7% but also, notably, an increase in the retirement age for to women to 65, to bring it line with that for men. Which the PS, Greens and trade unions all oppose for obvious reasons.

Anyway, this is going to be the most emotional topic of the set. The petition for the referendum picked up 100'000 signatures in 50 days, as in twice the number required in half the time limit. Showing the degree of opposition that exists.

4. Initiative against battery farming. Would ban battery/intensive livestock farming. As in minimum conditions about space per animal, access to going outside, painless slaughter.

The Federal Council's problems

Blick and Sotomo released some polling today. The jist of which is that there is a lot of dissatisfaction with the Federal Council. That is 64% of the country reckon that it is not working well together. Which is not surprising, the last months have been marked by noticeable conflicts and disagreements on the council. Over, among other things, Covid, EU relations, Ukraine (the delayed decision to implement sanctions on Russia created an almost unparalleled national outrage - placed squarely on the Federal Council's failure to work together) and various visible tensions between councillors at various public outings.

Parallel to this, the members of the Council are all rated badly. One a 1-6 scale (how school grades work), only Karin Keller-Sutter is rates as 4,0 (ie a passing grade), while the others all fail. Alain Berset in particular has seen his ratings collapse since the height of his Covid popularity. In particular hurt by accusations of badly managing the procurement of new fighter jets, which saw him actually fly a French Eurofighter Typhoon while visiting (he is an amateur pilot), which as much as anything isn't great for the Socialist's ecologist credentials. Ignazio Cassis is still rated worst. Still failing to communicate comprehensibly, still annoying the governments of other nations, and much of the debacle over the Russian sanctions were placed firmly at his door.

Unsurprisingly then, there is huge support for a reform of the Federal Council. But not replacing one PS by a Green, not replacing one PLR by a Green, and not expanding the number of members. So people clearly know what they want.

[parochial boy]

There has been some polling for the referendums in September. I am too lazy to go and find the details, but basically showed the Social Security ones off to a good start; The intensive farming one slightly ahead, but will obviously fall; and the anticipated tax either 20 points ahead, or 20 points behind, the only consistent picture being a big "don't know" so the jury is still out on that one.

Tamedia also did an electoral intention poll. Which apparently showed the PLR and PS gaining and Greens losing. Which was a little bit surprising, and Tamedia seem to be so embarrassed by the results that they refused to actually release the full results. Which brings up a certain point about how totally useless electoral intention polling tends to be here. A lot of this is down to the actual stability of party support, which makes it difficult to actually come up with a poll showing - anything really - if none of the parties are likely to be swinging more than 2% in any case. The bigger problem though is that, rather surprisingly for a country like Switzerland, opinion polling is done of the cheap and therefore is often methodologically poor; and unreliable.

There was also a poll today showing a big drop in support for the Federal Council. For reasons already mentioned. Though Berset remains the most popular of the bunch, and Cassis the least - in no small part over the way he humiliated the country re-Russian sanctions back in February.

In other news, I was reading an interview the other week with the federal councillor Ueli Maurer, who, if you are like the average Swiss person and have no idea who he is, is the more hardline of the two UDC federal councillors.

Anyway, said interview was headlined "the parliament has lost its mind", which being who he is, I expected would be a reference to the various more progessive moves like same sex marriage, gender self-identification for trans people or the recent moves to legalise cannabis or oblige new buildings to have solar panels. Well actually no, he was criticising the right, that is his own party and the PLR specifically, for their current obsession with attempting to cut taxes. To paraphrase the man himself "their take away from the Covid pandemic seems to be that they can just give money away with no consequences, well no, there are things we have to pay for and at some point we are going to have to raise taxes somewhere else to pay for this". Which is not wrong seeing as, despite all the stereotypes about taxes here, people generally do have and expect pretty high performing public services and a welfare state and at some point someone is going to have to point out exactly how these things get paid for.

Or in other words, the story here is the increasing detachment of the right in Switzerland from, well, reality. And not just the UDC and PLR here. For example, not only are we voting on yet another tax cut in four weeks (after the childcare cut, the corporation tax cut, the stamp duty cut, there are others I've forgotten - the only consistent story is that they all got rejected at the referendum) and the parliament is currently pushing through a bill to cut the tax on "rental value". To cut things short this is a tax that property owners pay on the rental value of their real estate property. The proposed cut, a hand out to the top 30% of the country would cost billions that would most likely have to be recouped through, probably a VAT rise and is obviously totally the wrong priority to be pushing for a fiscally expansist policy at a time of inflation and full employment.

Add to this the absolutely risible display of the GreenLiberals trying to explain how a tax cut specifically for multinationals would fight climate change. Add to this the spectacle of Marco Chiesa accusing the left and greens of wanting to create an "eco-dictatorship" and the very next day the UDC's old doyen Christoph Blocher writing an editorial about how it broke his heart see Russian soldiers dying in Ukraine and that this was the west's fault. As if those people have any clue what the word dictatorship actually means. And then add to this today's news that the right are collectively launching an initiative to build new nuclear power stations to resolve the energy crisis. Except that it will take 5 years to pass the thing and another 15 to build the stations. I am not anti-nuclear but when the energy crisis is now, they are pumping resources into this absurd solution that is 20 years away as if they are absolutely blind to the challenges that the country is facing.

Anyway, rant over, but the point is, the right in this country have always been risible (PLR and "the most progressive party in Switzerland " GLP as well. No especially), but there comes a point where you have to realise they have ceased to be serious organisations, and are just a bunch of entitled, over-privileged amateurs who think that we still live in the same world that we lived in 40 years ago.

[parochial boy]

Bump with some polling (chages on previous wave):

Pension reform Law:
Tamedia -
Yes  55%  (+3%)
No 44% (- 3%)

SRG SSR/GFS.Bern
Yes 59% (-5%)
No 38% (+6%)

Pension reform VAT increase:
Tamedia -
Yes 56% (+2%)
No (-1%)

GFS.Bern
Yes 63% (-2%)
No (+4%)

Anticipated tax reform
Tamedia -
Yes 40% (+6%)
No 48% (-1%)

GFS.Bern
Yes 47% (-2%)
No 44% (+9%)

Ban on intensive farming
Tamedia -
Yes 39% (-9%)
No 60% (+11%)

Yes 47% (-4%)
No 52% (+5%)

Laughably huge gender gap on the pension reforms, but also a fairly pronounced linguistic one (less support in Latin Switzerland) and an age one (much higher support among people who are already retired, funny that). The left did have a spark of hope with the last round of polling indicating a tightening, but that looks sunk with this wave showing a degree of stability. The anticipated tax polling seems to be converging towards a very narrow result, despite the two pollsters starting off with completely different pictures. I think this means it's completely up in the air as to what happens. Swiss polling being often very limited in its usefulness.

I also voted on a bunch of extremely uninteresting local questions, two of which had had the support of every single party across the political question. Which really begs the question as to why have a referendum on this at all?

[parochial boy]

Also because I might as well mention it, on the 2nd of October there are cantonal elections in Zug. As I don't have much to say overall I'll just quote myself from last time:

Kanton Zug (or, translated into english, the Canton of a Train). Here is some background information

Population: 12 people, 600,000 limited companies

Demographics: mostly lawyers and accountants, with a small but growing population of bankers

Religion: Swiss francs, Euros, US Dollars, UAE Dirhams - whatever you have got really

National Motto: "uhh, I think you'll find that tax evasion is illegal, tax avoidance is perfectly legal; and really, we should call it 'tax planning' as it's a far more politically neutral term"

Switzerland, as whole, is a country that has a somewhat poor reputation as far as topics like taxation and fiscal transparency are concerned. So imagine a canton that the rest of the country looks and and thinks "wow, don't you think you've taken that a bit too far?" and you have the canton of Zug. Formerly famous for nothing being the random bit between Zurich and the mountains, and for being the site of Switzerland's most famous mass shooting, Zug's policy makers discovered at some point towards the end of the 20th century that one of the key advantages of having virtually no inhabitants, is that you can charge virtually no taxes, as you don't have any pesky requirements to provide "welfare" of "infrastructure"; and in doing so, enrich yourselves off the back of the lucrative "tax planning" industry. Unsurprisingly, Zug is now home to the European headquarters of a truly stunning number of multinational corporations, as well as multitudes of holding companies, "wealth management" firms and private equity funds, each with slightly fewer genuine living and breathing employees than the last.

It has gone so far, in fact, that it has dragged away companies even from the other low tax cantons in the rest of the country - leading to the irrelevant yokel village in the alpine foothills driving a fiscal race to the bottom across the country, with a knock on effect that can be felt around the world.

Zug is also holding it's cantonal elections on Sunday the 7th of October. Here is its current government -

-----

Unsurprisingly then, Zug's politics tend to lean to the right, being dominated by the two liberal parties (UDC and PLR) and joined by a more right wing than average PDC, who are equally as signed up to the "low tax jurisdiction" consensus (as this is a small, catholic and rural canton, the PDC are the old dominant force). However, for pretty obvious reasons, Zug stands out from other traditionally similar rural, catholic, Swiss German cantons by its much more liberal attitude towards "openness to the world" type issues. It was one of only three German speaking cantons which rejected the 2014 initiative to limit mass migration (the other two were Basel-Stadt and Zurich), although 57% of them voted to ban minarets in 2009, because you've got to be the right kind of foreigner guys, c'mon.

Because it is of topical interest - Zug also headquarters mining giants and serial human rights abusers Glencore, controversial NSA collaborators Crypto AG, and was the home of the Nordstream 2 pipeline before that pesky war started out east. Leading the canton's Finance Minister Heinz Tännler (guess which party) to furiously denounce the west's overreaction in imposing sanctions on Russia.

Bref, if there's some scandal coming out of Switzerland - and it doesn't involve Credit Suisse - then you can bet your house that the canton of Zug will somehow be involved.

Current government is made up of 3 CVP, 2 FDP, 2 SVP and the parliament is composed as follows:

CVP - 21 seats
SVP - 18 seats
FDP - 17 seats
Alternative - the Greens - 11 seats
SP - 9 seats
Green Liberals - 4 seats

All incumbent ministers except the Centre's Beat Villiger are standing for re-election, with Laura Dittli the favourite for a like for like replacement, although the Greens might fancy their chances at winning the free seat. Other than that, quiet, whatever, it's an ultra rich tax haven with basically no social problems. Even the issue that other central Swiss tax haven cantons are having with needing to raise taxes to sort out dire finances doesn't apply here. The likes of Lucerne and Unterwalden have hit this problem because their efforts to copy Zug by cutting taxes just led to...  less tax revenue and angry locals not appreciating the public services cuts. Zug had first mover advantage so doesn't even have this issue.

So really the only interest is to see how the various forces fair up in the fall out of another hot summer and prospective energy crisis.

[parochial boy]

Results from today's warm up event:

AVS/Pension Reform:
Yes - 50,6%
No - 49,4%

VAT increase to fund the pension reform:
Yes - 55,1%
No - 44,9%

Abolition of the anticipated tax on interest gains:
Yes - 48,0%
No - 52,0%

Ban on intensive farming:
Yes - 37,1%
No - 62,9%

Map by commune and by canton, with the chief history being the huge Röstigraben on the Pension reform, which was rejected by over 60% in Romandie (and almost as much in Ticino) while being comfortably accepted by the Swiss Germans. Leading to the unusual situation of normally conservative rural francophone communes voting well to the left of Swiss German urban areas. With a special mention to the Jura voting over 70% against the pension reform and 64% against the anticipated tax and one again demostrating that they are just too good for the rest of the country.

Or to put it visually, the Röstigraben in all its glory



(although in fairness, Solothurn came within 600 votes of rejecting the vote, and Bern was less than 1% out. After language, the biggest factor that sticks out is that the lower income an area is, the more likely that it rejected both the pension and tax reforms).

edit - no after a recount, it turns out Solothurn did reject the reform after all.

Al in all, the Pension reform is a defeat for the left, but was also much closer than was anticipated - leaving a bittersweet tast in the mouths of both sides. At least, a reform with essentially no consequences for half the population means that the right will have to think very carefully about what they can bring in the form of future reforms. Any attempt to raise the retirement age to 67 for instance has probably been killed stone dead.

Likewise, the rejection of the anticipated tax marks the continuation of a now very well established series of attempts to reduce taxes being rejected. You would hope that the right finally (finally) actually take note of this, but well, we shall see. First step is to hopefully kill of the proposition to abolish the tax on rental value that is currently going through parliament.

Not much of note in the cantonal votes, but special mention to Lucerne which refused to fund a refurbishment of the Swiss Guard casern in the Vatican city. Historically these sorts of propositions have flown through unhindered, so it does indicate the degree to which religion has declined in relevance even in the old catholic cantons of Central Switzerland.

[parochial boy]

In News, Ueli Maurer (UDC/SVP) announced his resignation from the Federal Council today, and he will be replaced at the end of the year. This somewhat marks the end of the Blocher era, as Maurer was an old Zürich SVP ally of Blocher's, retaining a hardline position through his time on the council - in contrast to the more moderate Guy Parmelin.

As the SVP are the only party that can clearly claim their right to retain their two seats, he will naturally replaced by another member of the same party.

Theoretically, it should also mean his replacement by another hardliner. Although this comes at a time where the party is going through a particularly hysterical radical phase, in particular over the fallout of Covid but also an ever louder opposition towards green/environmental politics and a deeply ambiguous (the likes of party grandee Christoph Blocher or Weltwoche editor and Nationalrat Roger Köppel being pretty explicitly pro-Russia) position over the war in Ukraine and where Swiss neutrality stands in relation to this. Which all begs the question as to who in the party isn't completely radicalised these days*.

Anyway, as of now there are a few frontrunners to replace him, although all have downsides or difficulties:

First is Magdalena Martullo-Blocher, Christoph's daughter and a very radical and economicall liberal profile who was particularly visible during the Covid pandemic. However her surname is very (very) offputting and she might not want to give up her lucrative side job as CEO of the multibillion dollar EMS-Chemie company.

Also available might be Zurich Regierungsrat Natalie Ricklie, who is another hardliner but who alienated much of the party through her (pro-vax, pro-restrictions) actions throughout the Covid pandemic. As might former party leader Albert Rösti who while on the right is generally less polemicist by profile but who also led to party to their poor result in 2019. Beyond that are former president Toni Brunner, close to the Blocher crowd but allegedly retired from politics; or Thomas Aeschi, failed candidate in 2019 with strikingly right wing views etc, etc...

Anyway, point to remember is that the new Federal Councillor will be elected by the entire parliament, not just the UDC themselves, which limits quite how radical the future councillor might be, even if, at least this time round, there probably will be a general acceptance to play by the old rules. It is when one of the PS or PLR federal councillors steps down, or post 2023, that all hell will break loose.



*There are some, mostly west of the Röstigraben eg Céline Amaudruz, none of whom have any hope of election

[parochial boy]

The race to replace Ueli Maurer in the Federal Council is continuing, with a full sleight of five candidates now officially in place. It will be another UDC member, the Greens toyed with throwing a candidate into the ring before eventually deciding not to - as the idea was always more around pressuring the UDC into not only nominating members from the more hardline of the party than out of the genuine impression that they could win.

Anyway the candidates are:

Albert Rösti - The overwhelming favourite right now. Rösti was the previous party president, and although very much a right winger (and president of amongst others, the car and oil importer lobbies - with absolutely zero green credentials) he is seen as the more reasonable and moderate choice. Reason for that is principally down to the fact that the other parties believe that he will "play the game", that is, take part in the Federal Council's politics.

That is, he is not a Blocher clone (in fact, Blocher apparently hates him and holds him responsible for the party's bad result in 2019 - it was particularly over this fact that the Greens threatened to stand, over the worry that the UDC would refuse to santion his candidacy) and has veered away from the explicitely anti-democratic and pro-Putin ramblings of Blocher and other ultra-right wingers like Köppel and Glarner. Which in turn makes him the favourite in so far as he doesn't repulse the other parties in the way those other figures.

Werner Salzmann - Another member of the Bern party, the first to officially announce his candidacy. He is a conseiller aux états so a fairly big profile, and proven capable of winning in a canton like Bern. Overall seems a little too much "generic SVP" to have much chance of getting one over Rösti.

Michéle Blöchliger - The only woman standing, and a member of the Nidwald government, hardly exactly a particularly high profile springboard. She managed to create something of a furor over contradicting herself on whether or not she is a British citizen, but beyond that very few people have any sort of an impression of her at this point.

Hans Ueli Vogt - put forward by the Zürich party, the local party of Blocher and Maurer himself and might take advantage of claims that the largest canton should be represented in the Federal Council. Vogt would become the first ever gay person elected to the Federal Council, although that has precisely zero bearing on his political profile. In particular he speerheaded the "self-determination" initiative in 2018, which would have taken Switzerland out of the ECJ and ECHR. Which failed miserably however, and Vogt can be a little bit of a loose cannon, in every direction and occassionally to the displeasure of his own party

Heinz Tännler - Member of the Zug parliament, will be standing to represent United Russia on the Federal Council.

Overall though, the biggest fears appear to be assuaged in so far as Rösti is standing in the end and there have been no candidacies from the likes of Thomas Aeschi, Köppel (who is far too lazy in any case); Glarner or Toni Brunner's wife Esther Friedli. That quartor all form the bulk of the extreme wing of the party, or the wing that has become increasingly virulent over recent months in respect of their opposition to all enviornmental politics and pro-Russia stances.

On which note, Paul Rechsteiner (SP) has also announced that he is standing down from the Ständerat, triggering a special election to replace him in St Gallen. Rechsteiner is an old Trade Union leader and was a strong left wing profile, which means that the SP are facing an extremely difficult challenge to replace him in a canton that is very definitely not well disposed towards them. Really it's a miracle that Rechsteiner was ever elected in the first place.

At the moment the SP have announced Barbara Gysi as their candidate to replace him, who is also a strong candidate with a well established profile and is well mediatised. The SVP in turn have announced Ether Friedli as their candidate - the wife of former party president Toni Brunner as mentioned above. The Greens and FDP will also likely announce candidates, with the first round to happen on the 12th of March.

[parochial boy]

And just like that, a second Federal Councillor the Socialist Simonetta Sommaruga has announceed that she is also resigning, citing her husband's health problems and recent hospitalisation which mean that she no longer feels able to concentrate on the job.

This is quite a surprise resignation, as it wasn't expected, but Sommaruga has been the target of increasingly hysterical attacks from the UDC who have accused her of every single wrong on the planet, but most notably not responding adequately to the energy crisis (that the UDC themselves have voted against every single motion to do anything about it except from build new nuclear power stations that they apparently think can magicall pop up over night). With things reaching a peak when the Solothurn Nationalrat and oil lobbyist Christian Inmark essentially called for violence against her.

In any case, although originally more associated with the liberal wing of the PS and former head of the country's main consumer protection organisation; Sommaruga became a popular figure with the left and was seen as a more reliable voice for left wing causes on the Federal Council than her fellow Socialist Alain Berset. That is, until the last couple of years where notably her landmark CO2 law was defeated in the referendum and the subsequent criticism she faced over the energy crisis and in particular the government forced bailout of one of the many energy distributors, AXPO, in the fall out of it running into financial trouble over gas exports and a lack of clarity over who between the cantons, the confederation or the other energy suppliers and distributors actually had the responsibility.

The succession battle starts now. In contrast to the UDC, the PS is in a position where you might think there was a case for them to lose their second seat ont the Federal Council. However, barring some manipulations it seems like this can be counted out this time at least. Reason being, there is no legitimacy for the left as a whole to not have two seats - they are already underrepresented - and the Greens have repeatedly stated that they have no intention in trying to take one of the PS's seats.

All of which means that the replacement will be a Socialist, in line with the magica formula. In particular it will be a woman, the PS have already made it clear that this is their intention, and probably a Swiss German. Which leads to a couple of likely candidates, in particular Flavia Wasserfallen (Bern) and Priska Seiler-Graf (Zürich) who had already been put forward for the party presidency back in 2019. Or Jacqueline Badran who would be absolutely amazing, but I doubt she has any intention of standing.

[parochial boy]

And a brief update on the PS Federal Councillor race. The party leadership initially announced that they wanted an exclusively female ticket. This led to the outrage on the part of the moderate Zürich Senator Daniel Jositsch, who has for a long time been known to harbour ambitions of joining the council, that the centre and right joined in. All claiming that the PS was practicing willful discrimination against women, that Meyer and Wermuth defended themselves against, and well, all that contributed to making the race more about this question than about the actual political profiles of the relevant candidates. Sigh.

At the same time, a number of the favourites decided against standing - the likes of Wasserfallen and Carobbio prefering to remain in their respective 2023 electoral races.

In any case, today the PS confirmed that they will present two women candidates to the election, with Jositsch accepting the decision, which means that there are currently three profiles in the race:

Eva Herzog - Basel-Stadt Regierungsratin and Finance minister and the big favourite for election, especially as she is seen as a serious and competent figure, and in so far as she represents a major economic centre and one that is not currently represented on the council. She is however, on the right of the party, having supported the 2017 corporate tax reform that the rest of the party opposed.

Evi Alleman - Bern Regierungsratin and speciaist in transportation as well as a relative centrist, which would make here something of a like for like replacement for Sommaruga,

Elisabeth Baume-Schneider - Jura Conseillère aux états and solitary francophone standing. Jura has never been represented on the Federal Council and Baume-Schneider, a former member of the "Ligue marxiste revolutionnaire" - now "SolidaritéS", has a very left wing profil in contrast to the two more liberal Swiss Germans, which would maker her popular with the PS basis. However, she does not have much of a profile over the linguistic border, which combined with the fact her election would give Latin Switzerland a majority on the council makes her election unlikely

Anyway, both UDC and PS will announce their finalised candidates in the coming days. Both parties intend to only present two candidates to the parliament on the 7th of December.

[parochial boy]

One last update before the election next week, but the two tickets are finalised. Two UDC and two PS candidates officially standing for election:

The UDC election will be between Albert Rösti and Hans-Ueli Vogt. Vogt would be the first LGBT member of the government if elected while Rösti would be the first deep-fried potato pancake.

Rösti is going in as favourite, but has faced criticism over his role as an oil lobbyist. Notably the mention of his role as the representative of SwissOil mysteriously disappeared from his personal website and he is facing particularly deep criticism of this in left wing circles. In particular, many on the left now seem tempted by Vogt's more "free wheeling" attitude, which they - hope - might mean compatibility on certain areas - in particular the environment in compared to the more predictable Rösti. It will essentially come down how much of a risk the assembly is willing to take.

The PS election will face of Eva Herzog against Elisabeth Baume-Schneider. The more liberal Herzog is overwhelming facvourite. The PLR in particular have been vocally opposed to the potential of having anothert Romande on the council, as Baume-Schneider's election would mean a Latin majority, and likewise, the Jurassienne's trotskyist background and left wing positions are off putting. In contrast, many on the left are deeply unenthusiastic about Herzog's liberal profile. Which is potentially a bad start for who will most likely be the next PS federal councillor and would be hoped to represent a line of resistance against the assembly's recent tax cutting enthusiasm.

Finally, there were some cantonal referendums last Sunday. Not much of interest. Baselland sanctioned a wealth tax cut, Zurich increased the tax deductibility of health insurance premiums on the one hand; while on the other, Valais approved an increase in child tax credits to 300 francs per child per month, but also overwhelmingly approved the legalisation of assissted suicide - which itself was something of a shock in this historically very Catholic canton.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

One last update before the election next week, but the two tickets are finalised. Two UDC and two PS candidates officially standing for election:

The UDC election will be between Albert Rösti and Hans-Ueli Vogt. Vogt would be the first LGBT member of the government if elected while Rösti would be the first deep-fried potato pancake.

Rösti is going in as favourite, but has faced criticism over his role as an oil lobbyist. Notably the mention of his role as the representative of SwissOil mysteriously disappeared from his personal website and he is facing particularly deep criticism of this in left wing circles. In particular, many on the left now seem tempted by Vogt's more "free wheeling" attitude, which they - hope - might mean compatibility on certain areas - in particular the environment in compared to the more predictable Rösti. It will essentially come down how much of a risk the assembly is willing to take.

The PS election will face of Eva Herzog against Elisabeth Baume-Schneider. The more liberal Herzog is overwhelming facvourite. The PLR in particular have been vocally opposed to the potential of having anothert Romande on the council, as Baume-Schneider's election would mean a Latin majority, and likewise, the Jurassienne's trotskyist background and left wing positions are off putting. In contrast, many on the left are deeply unenthusiastic about Herzog's liberal profile. Which is potentially a bad start for who will most likely be the next PS federal councillor and would be hoped to represent a line of resistance against the assembly's recent tax cutting enthusiasm.

Finally, there were some cantonal referendums last Sunday. Not much of interest. Baselland sanctioned a wealth tax cut, Zurich increased the tax deductibility of health insurance premiums on the one hand; while on the other, Valais approved an increase in child tax credits to 300 francs per child per month, but also overwhelmingly approved the legalisation of assissted suicide - which itself was something of a shock in this historically very Catholic canton.

So what happened with Baume-Schneider surprisingly beating Herzog?

[Good Habit]

So what happened with Baume-Schneider surprisingly beating Herzog?

There are various factors... Initially, strong opposition to Baume-Schneider came from the FDP - who considered overrepresentation of "Latin" speakers a threath to their BR Cassis (actually head of the Foreign department..) There was some leftwing opposition to Herzog due to her support for some business Tax-cuts (during her time as state treasurer of Basel-Stadt).

And then, Baume-Schneider sold herself well as a sympathetic  farm girl still holding some sheep - this was popluar with rural MP's and enabled them to forget earlier doubts about her years with a trots outfit during her college years...

OTOH, it would allow for the right wingers to put some pressure on Alain Berset, now the longest serving - but still youngest - member of the government, and actual head of the Health and social Department, and during the pandemic the most popular BR - to evtl. resign (eg after the next general election - October 2023)"to remove the overrepresentation of french speakers."...

And then there was some discussion about the allocation of Departments... With the Finance Department geting vacated by Ueli Maurer, there were expectations that Berset (claiming seniority), the FDP BR Karin Keller-Sutter (then at Justice and Police) and Herzog (with experience in financial matters) would be potential candidates. Rumour has it that Keller-Sutter lobbied within the FDP parliamentary group against Herzog, to prevent a similar character / competitor for the position of Alpha-Woman - from joining goverment.

This are the general takes why EBS finally won...

So, at the distribution of the Departments, Berset had to remain at Health and Social, Keller-Sutter got Finance, and Baume-Schneider Police and Justice. And as Viola Amherd, the actual Defense Secretary from the Mitte, surpisingly offered to stay at Defense, the door was open for Albert Rösti, well known oil lobbyst, to get Environment, Energie and Infrastructure...

So, you could say, the hard right has their agenda fullfilled - Keller-Sutter at Finance seems to be the strongwoman in the actual government, anti green policies and austerity will dominate, and Baume-Schneider (as the hope of the leftists) will now have to keep asylum seekers away....

[Ragnaroni]

There's a possible referendum here in Vaud (yes, don't ask, loong story) where we could have the cantonal income tax reduced by 12%!

[Good Habit]

As a pre-run to the national Elections scheduled for October 22, 2023,

Cantonal Elections were held on february 12 in Zürich and Basellandschaft.

Results are quite boring, very little change after lukwarm campaigns…

In Zurich, all 7 incumbent members of the Regierungsrat (Government Council) were easily re-elected, with the following numbers of votes:

Mario Fehr (independent, defected from SP during the last legislature:) 192 711 votes
Natalie Rickli, SVP 181 842
Ernst Stocker, SVP 177 639
Martin Neukom (Greens) 161 864
Jaqueline Fehr (SP) 148 [510
Silvia Steiner (Mitte) 146 242
Carmen Walker-Späh (FDP) 145 444

not elected were:
Priska Seiler Graf (SP – Member of National Council) – who hoped to regain the seat the party had lost trough the defection of Mario Fehr    120 586 votes
Peter Grünenfelder (FDP)  108 395
Benno Scherrer (GLP)   93 603
Anne-Claude Hensch (AL)    70 189
Hans-Peter Amrein (independent – former cantonal legislator for SVP, defected during last legislature)
Daniel Sommer (EVP)
and some more

(for direct results, see: https://www.zh.ch and follow the link "Wahlen"

Polls had given Priska Seiler Graf  some hopes to beat Silvia Steiner, (Head of the Education departement) who had come under critic for  her management of COVID in Schools, and the failure to recruit enough teachers (massive retirement wave of baby-boomers…)

The other candidates did just have to low a profile to beat the front of incumbents…

And turnout was just 35.79 % - actually an increase from 4 years ago….

In the legislative Election – 180 Seats of Cantonal Council changes were also marginal

Seat distribution: SVP 46 (+1), SP 36 (+1), FDP 29 (nc), GLP 24 (+1) Greens 19 (-3), Mitte 11 (+3)
EVP 7 (-1), AL 5 (-1), EDU 3 (-1)  (Aufrecht/FreeList (anti Covid measures group)didn't win any seats, although they won more votes than EDU, but without a strong regional base, they werent able to pass the threshold (5% in at least one district, or 3 % overall)..



In Baselland, all 4 incumbents that did run again easily won re-election
Anton Lauber (Mitte) 41711 votes
Isaac Reber (Greens) 37505
Kathrin Schweizer (SP) 35020
Monica Gschwind (FDP) 35008

For the 5th seat (held by the SVP) there were several new candidates, and surprisingly, Thomy Jourdan (EVP) – with 26217 votes did beat Sandra Sollberger, SVP (known as somewhat a hardliner) – who got 25080 votes.
Thomas Nock (SP) 23764, and Manuel Ballmer (GLP) 20103 followed close behind… - and yes, turnout was 34.7 %…

For the legislative Election – 90 Seats of the «Landrat» (Country Council) – marginal changes as well:
Seats won: SVP 21 (nc), SP 20 (-2), FDP 17 (nc), Greens 12 (-2), Mitte 10 (+1 – compared to the combined results of the pre-decessor partys CVP + BDP), GLP 6 (+3) , EVP 4 (nc)

Detailed results: https://abstimmungen.bl.ch

So, a summary of both elections - very little change, but overall – the Greens seem to be biggest loosers – GLP gets some small wins, and Mitte seems to benefit from the re-branding – away from the «Christian» Label – (which in practice, just meant «Catholic»…)  while the rest seems pretty stable...

[CityofSinners]

Has there been any updates on Swiss-EU negotiations? I heard very little about that since the framework talks collapsed.

[Good Habit]

Has there been any updates on Swiss-EU negotiations? I heard very little about that since the framework talks collapsed.

Nope - some people consider it urgent (but these are the ones who fear the loss of access to markets / participation in research projects) - while for all politicians these is basically a taboo issue - or - the elephant in the room thant can't be mentioned - because whatever you say, this might annoy someone, and in an election year, that means you could loose some votes...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is the potential political effect of the issues with Credit Suisse?

[Good Habit]

What is the potential political effect of the issues with Credit Suisse?

Comming late to the party...

The Crisis (Bailout - not to be called that.../ Merger... - whatever) doesn't look very good for the government, and particularly not for the most pro-banking party (Old - and Neo-Liberal FDP - usually the party of bankers per se...  - including their Federal Counciler Karin Keller-Sutter, since January head of the treasury... ) Her insistence that it's not a bailout, although the government / Central Bank might take liabilities up to 250 Billion CHF, and the clear failure of the existing anti-bailout legislation (large banks need to have targeted breaking points, to save the domestic branch, and let the international sectors go in to bankruptcy - this rule was blatantly violated at the first case in question...)

So credibility of the right wing / neo-liberal groups is quite low at the moment - (they always justify exorbitant boni with the claim - "this is needed to attract the best talent" - when the "best talents seem just bo be talented in greed, and are otherwise quite clueless how to run a succesful business.

There haven't been many new polls since last week, but at the moment it looks as if FDP could go down, (moderately , most likely - real landslide are really rare here), and that SP might gain somewhat (they have been warning from excessive dependency of the banking sector quite often). SVP tries to run it both sides - they are usually completely on the neo-liberal side - unless its about some of their pet projects, like farming subsidies.... Now, they claim that this deal was forced on Switzerland by the US - and UK governments... (Keller-Sutter had been announcing that she was in frequent Exchange with Janet Yellen and Jeremy Hunt, before the bail out...)

So, the SVP now claims that the deal violates Switzerlands sovereignity - and that at least the domestic activities of (former) CS should be seperated in a spin-off (to allow continued competition) - while the SP - and also Mitte (former CVP) now ask for a strengthening of Postfinance - still the leading -state owned- payment service, by granting them a full banking license... (Earlier, (a year or to back) Pariament has declined such a proposal, to avoid competition for private banks - FDP and SVP - and some more set a majority privatisation as conditio sine qua non (banking should always be  a private company) while the SP and Greens were opposed to privatisation - so there was no deal - then...

Parliament will hold an emergency session starting April 12, to discuss the matter - because most parties (including FDP) announce the opposition to the existing deal (UBS takes over CS without restricitions, shareholders have no say in it, and T1 bonds are whipped out) - it might theoretically be possible that the deal could still fail, although it was formally legalized with an emergency decree...

What would happen in such a case is difficult to predict, the government - especially KKS - are insisting that "There is no Alternative" (the  option that was discussed was full nationalization of CS - but this was rejected as "to risky" - or running to much against the neo-liberal dogma...

[Lechasseur]

It looks like the PDC/Centre has been improving in the polls quite a bit since their name change, and aren't far out of reach of the PRL (currenly 13.9% vs 11.4% at the last election). And normally will not be finishing outside of the top 4 parties this time and thus should keep their seat on the Federal Council from what I can tell.

Is that just due to having absorbed the PBD's voters, or is there any additional explanation for their improvement since the name change and merger?