Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December
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  Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December
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Author Topic: Re: Swiss elections and referenda - New Federal Councilor(s) election 7 December  (Read 52485 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #375 on: November 07, 2021, 11:36:27 AM »
« edited: November 07, 2021, 12:45:57 PM by parochial boy »

Results from Fribourg:

Big surprise in the Conseil d'Etat:

1. Jean-François Steiert (PS): 41.9%
2. Sylvie Bonvin-Sansonnens (Verts): 39.4%
3. Didier Castella (PLR): 39.3%
4. Valérie Piller Carrard (PS): 38.5%
5. Olivier Curty (Le Centre): 33.7%
6. Alizée Rey (PS): 32.4%
7.  Romain Collaud (PLR): 32.0%
---
8. Sophie Tritten (Centre Gauche-PCS): 31.6%
9. Jean-Pierre Siggen (Le Centre): 29.1%
10. Luana Menoud-Baldi (Le Centre): 21.8%x
11. Philippe Demierre (UDC): 18%
---
15. Irene Bernhard (PVL):7.4%

No absolute majorities so a complete second round, but if that holds it would mean a pick up for the PS and Greens each, and completely historically, an overall left wing governing majority. Of course, the right should sort out some alliances which makes that overall unlikely, but the Green pick up looks almost guranteed at this point. Complete disaster for Philippe Demierre and the UDC, who were tipped as having a good shot at making the government. But, well, that score doesn't lie

Grand Conseil

Le Centre -  22.1% (-1.7%) // 26 seats (-1)
PLR -  20.1% (+1.9) // 23 seats (+2)
PS -  18.8% (-4.8%) // 21 seats (-7)
UDC - 17.3% (-2.5%) // 18 seats (-3)
Les Verts - 12.0% (+7.5%) // 13 seats (+7)
PVL - 4.2% (+1.7%) // 3 seats (+2)
CG-PCS - 4.2% (+0.8%) // 4 seats (nc)
others - 1.4% // 2 seats

The 2 'others' are La Broye, c'est vous (local party who often align with the Greens) and the UDF (thanks to an alliance with the UDC)

Huge Green surge at the expense of the Socialists, but also a surprisingly good results for the PLR and surprisingly poor for the UDC - seems to be the pattern in Romandie at the moment. What it isn't however, is an especially big vindiction of the UDC's anti-city and anti-Covid measures lines. Fribourg isn't an urban canton, and was almost bang in line with the national result on the Covid law referendum earlier this year - so overall it should have been a fairly representative example of how an "average" looking canton would react to the UDC's line. So either not encouraging, or let's write it off as the party being especially unappealing to the French Swiss in it's current guise.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #376 on: November 28, 2021, 10:56:01 AM »
« Edited: November 28, 2021, 11:00:36 AM by parochial boy »

And results from the referendums today:

Covid law
Yes - 62%
No - 38%

Nursing initiative
Yes - 61%
No - 39%

Justice initiative
Yes - 31.9%
No - 68.1%

The nursing initiative getting an almost historical level of support for an initiative; and the Covid law passing despite a huge No campaign and the almost complete absence of any campaign whatsoever for Yes. Proof that, no matter how well funded and loud they are, the Querdenker are still a minority.

Maps by canton here and by commune here. The usual trolling from Appenzell-Innerrhoden and Schwyz. The strongest opposition to all three votes (even if the justice initiative's support was a little bit less predictable) coming from a certain "diagonale du non" that essentially corresponds to the Swiss-German north face of the alps, always the most right wing part of the country.

In various cantonal votes, Geneva has rejected allowing shops to open on Sundays; Zürich has banned fossil fuel heating; Basel-City has strengthened its rent controls; Baselland has accepted a programme to help intergration (language courses and job training) for migrants; Schaffhausen has adapted its corporate tax regime to fit the new OECD rules; and Valais wants to kill all of it's wolves, although that remains constitutionally banned
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parochial boy
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« Reply #377 on: December 08, 2021, 05:26:20 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 05:46:19 PM by parochial boy »

Ignacio Cassis was elected president of the Swiss confederation for 2022.

And with one voice, the nation called out: "who?"
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #378 on: December 09, 2021, 06:23:54 AM »

Ignacio Cassis was elected president of the Swiss confederation for 2022.

And with one voice, the nation called out: "who?"

His anonimity is exemplified by the fact that even you mistakenly used the Spanish spelling "Ignacio" for his name. Tongue
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parochial boy
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« Reply #379 on: December 28, 2021, 12:40:54 PM »

There are some referendums in February that I will write about at some point.

But first, in "this country can be surprising at times" is some polling that came out on the dreaded gender identity issue. The main result is that only 18% of the population believe that there "are only two genders". Twice as many believe gender is a spectrum or that there are many gender identities while a similar number of believe "mostly men and women with some exceptions". Unsurprisingly big age and gender (heh) gaps on this, but even only a third of SVP voters believe that there are only two genders.

Likewise, a 53% majority support the official recognition of a third gender; and 73% of (german speakers) say that they use some form of inclusive language; including 20% claiming to use the dreaded "gendersternchen" or equivalent and another 20% using a gender neutral form to avoid a generic masculin.

All coming in the same week as Zürich announcing that is is introducting unisex toilets in schools and a batch of other cantons updating their guidane on how to support trans children. In other words, "woke" opinions on gender are arguably already in the majority, if not very close to it - which explains why the debate is somewhat less hysterical than it is elsewhere
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« Reply #380 on: December 28, 2021, 01:13:46 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2021, 02:10:13 PM by Lord Halifax »

But first, in "this country can be surprising at times"

That is actually genuinely surprising given Switzerland's image as a conservative and "traditionalist" country, any idea why the Swiss are so progressive on this issue? Is modern Switzerland just more liberal than its international image?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #381 on: December 28, 2021, 01:50:27 PM »

Quote from: parochial boy link=topic=310834.msg8406236#msg8406236 date=1640713254
But first, in "this country can be surprising at times"
[/quote

That is actually genuinely surprising given Switzerland's image as a conservative and "traditionalist" country, any idea why the Swiss are so progressive on this issue? Is modern Switzerland just more liberal than its international image?

To be fair, I'm not sure if a similar poll in most of our neighbours (except the big one to the west) would be particularly different. Although, that itself is something already, as in there have been various surveys and the like suggesting that Switzerland as whole has ceased to particuarly conservative relative to the rest of western europe (with the caveat that certain rural areas probably still are as traditionalist and conservative as anything you'll find on the continent).

Reason being in part the decline of the old factors that used to make it conservative - the end of the geographical isolation and strong autonomy of small villages and towns; as well as a wave of secularisation that came later, but hit just as hard as it did elsewhere. There is also a degree to which Switzerland as a whole replicates the factors that you see in lots of increasingly left wing cities elsewhere - an increasingly well educated, mobile population that has by and large prospered from globalisation and is increasingly sensitive to the sorts of issues that urban areas tend to be sensitive to. (the degree to which even small and mid-sized towns have almost uniformally trended left is also a pretty unusual phenomenon, for similar reasons).

Questions of language though, have always been one where the Swiss have been quite a bit more open minded. As in, german spelling was simplified (eg dropping the eszett) like a century ago, and Switzerland was already one of the first places that the point médian started appearing in French. I think that is in part down to the fact that communicating with non-native or foreign language speakers is a daily experience - as well as a certain desire to differentiate themslves from the "gatekeepers" of the languages in France and Germany (in particular bear in mind that neither standard german nor standard french are actually native to Switzerland).
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parochial boy
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« Reply #382 on: January 03, 2022, 07:33:43 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2022, 06:53:12 PM by parochial boy »

Four proposals to be voted on on the 13th February as follows:

1. Popular initiative - "to ban human and animal experimentation" - I think pretty obvious what it's about, although also includes a ban on the trade, import and export of goods directly or indirectly making use of animal testing. Opposed essentially by everyone, including the majority of the Greens, so it will fail

2. Popular initiative "to protect young people against tobacco advertising" - also pretty obvious what it's about, the initiative would ban advertising of tobacco products anywhere underage people might be able to see them. Because this wasn't already done years ago; and because Switzerland still has an unusually high number of smokers. Parliament was very (and predictably) split on the question, but should the initiative fail, a counter-proposal would be put into law, banning physical adverts but allowing them still to be published online and in free newspapers.

3. Referendum on the Modification of the Stamp Duty - The most important one. Broadly speaking, the stamp duty is a tax on all financial tranasctions (at different rates for eg insurance and derivative purchases, sales of shares etc...) which largely exists to make up for the absence of a Capital Gains tax. The law would abolish one specific stamp duty, that on emissions of new capital, that currently brings in about 200m CHF a year to the federal government. Unsurprisingly opposed by the left on grounds that it would only benefit the rich and would weaken the stamp duty as a whole, it could be an interesting one to follow as proposals to cut taxes have tended to have a difficult time in recent years (fingers crossed)

4. Referendum on the Media support package - A 120m CHF package to support private media, which, like everywhere, has had  hard time in recent years. Whether or not government should be subsidising the media or not is probably a universal enough issue that it doesn't need much more explanation.

Beyond that, the key electoral dates this year are:

Referendums
13th February
15th May
25th September
27th November

Cantonal elections
Glarus - 13/2 (government) and 15/5 (parliament)
Obwald - 13/3
Nidwald - 13/3
Vaud - 20/3 and 10/4
Bern - 27/3 and 15/5
Graubünden - 15/5
Zug - 2/10

Zürich also has a communal election on the 13th of February; which means the largest city and 2nd and 3rd largest cantons are all going to the polls over the late winter and spring. So a fairly hefty chunk that will start to give some good pointers towards the 2023 federal elections.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #383 on: January 07, 2022, 08:19:11 AM »

Some polling from GFS.Bern for February:

Animal Experimentation ban: 45% Yes - 48% No

Tobacco advertising ban: 73% Yes - 25% No

Stamp Duty cut: 42 % Yes - 49% No

Media Support package: 48% Yes - 48% No

Both referendums will be tight, though would be utterly delightful if the Stamp Duty cut gets rejected and that somehow convinces the authorities that they can't actually get all their desired tax cuts through the referendum process and means they stop trying to push them on us. Fat chance though.

Huge start for the Tobacca advertising ban, it will drop bigly over the next 6 weeks, but coming out of the starting gates with a 50% lead means that it could be pretty interesting come results day. Not looking like the standard straightforward rejection initiatives face. Not getting ahead of myself but three initiatives passing in the space of 12 months would be pretty astonishing, all the more considering we are just coming out of a 7 year period where every single one failed.

In other news, the Centre and PS both had new year's presentations, for want of a better term, yesterday. Both with an eye towards 2023, which could be a challenging outing for both parties. Main uptake is that both are pushing several initiative and referendum campaigns forward. Among which are the PDC's initiative to limit healthcare costs, with two other initiatives in preparaton; while the PS have several undergoing referendum campaigns (the stamp duty one as well as one against the recent pension reform) as well as ongoing signature collections for four initiatives (not including the Juso's wealth cap), with two more to be started.

It might seem a bit ridiculous to be putting so many forward, but in the PS's case, they have typically had a lot of success is undoing parliament's efforts to weaken the welfare state through the referendum process. So it very much makes sense to continue this. More to the point though, is that referendums and especially initiatives are a good way to push certain issues towards the top of the political ageda. So even a failed initiative can put a party's themes of predilection in people's minds and therefore can be succesful in convincing those kindly disposed towards such themes out to vote for them. Historically the UDC have been the masters of this, but in all cases it very much makes a lot of sense to tactically try and angle things to have a vote on the right theme in the months before a federal election.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #384 on: January 21, 2022, 08:06:11 AM »
« Edited: January 21, 2022, 04:25:55 PM by parochial boy »

Second round of polling from Tamedia on the February referendums. Changes are on the first wave they did, which I never posted, but oh well.

Stamp Duty referendum
Yes - 32% (+2%)
No - 58% (+3%)

Media Law
Yes - 39% (-3%)
No - 57% (+6%)

Animal Testing initiative
Yes - 27% (-7%)
No - 71% (+10%)

Tobacco advertising initiative
Yes - 62% (-5%)
No - 36% (+5%)

The tobacco initiative appearing to be the only one in any doubt at the moment, though I would still bet against it. Would be quite funny if both referendums fail but one of the initiatves passes.

Glarus government election 13th February
Theoretically that is, as in, there seems to be nothing indicating it is taking place other than a press release issued by the cantonal government in November and the various parties nominating candidates. I'm guessing it's wound up as a tacit election failing any candidates other than the incumbents - but there seems to be nothing to confirm this either. So...

Anyway the current 5 head government is made up 2 FDP and 1 each from the BDP, SVP and SP (the last of which replaced a CVP minister last year) and I guess it is going to stay that way?

It's an unusual canton, one of the first places outside of the UK to really industrialise and used to have a strong progressive streak that made it really stand out compared to its neighbours; even if that has long since ceased to be the case.

It was also a stronghold of historical Democratic Party - the "far left" of the pre-Socialist 19th century. The BDP are in some way their succesors, in so far as the DP merged into the SVP and the BDP split out from it. So there's a nice historical parallel in so far as it was the BDP's strongest canton, until they merged with the Christian Democrats, rendering all that moot. Anyway, the legislative election is in May, but it will be an interesting test for the new Centre party in a rare canton that was an old BDP stronghold.

[edit - confirmed, no election as only the incumbents were standing]

13th February Zürich Communal elections
A bigger test as there are communal elections in the country's biggest canton, and in particular in Zürich city.

At the moment, the city's 9 head Stadtrat is as follows:

SP - 3
Greens - 2
Alternative Liste - 1 (a minor Trotskyist party who emerged out of the old POCH [Swiss Progressive Organsations] themselves a consequence of May 68 and all that)
FDP - 2
GLP - 1

All for a 6-3 split in favour of the left with Socialist Corine Mauch as city president

The 125 seat Gemeinderat is as follows:
SP - 43 seats
FDP - 21 seats
SVP - 17 searts
Greens - 16 seats
GLP - 14 seats
AL - 10 seats
EVP - 4 seats

The 2018 election was something of a historic result. Not only were the CVP unceremonially kicked out of the parliament, but the elections also heralded in a historic high for the left, whose 69 seats equalled the previous record set back in 1931. Meaning the gain of a single left wing seat would lead to the most left wing ever parliament elected in Switzerland's largest city.

The city has been trending clearly left in recent years ("global trends" etc, etc...) but in contrast to certain preconceptions, it has always been a left wing stronghold. As an industrial, working class city, back in the 1930s it was knows as "Red Zürich" thanks to the radical SP city government of the time, and Lenin and Rosa Luxemburg both lived in the city in the early 20th century. With that in mind, the rest of the metro area is a very different story (ground zero of the SVP's radical turn) and the city has always had an important liberal vote, thanks to the historical importance of the financial industry.

These days, the SP are the largest party in every neighbourhood of the city, although this does hide some local differences. The old industrial inner-west suburbs in Wiedikon and Kreis 4 and 5 are these days thoroughly hipster-ified and very solidly left wing. Meaning AL emerge as the second largest party with the liberals and SVP being miniscule. Likewise, the Bobo and studenty right-bank of the river in Kreises 6 and 10 are very strong for both the left and the GreenLiberals; while the SVP perform better in the Working Class and slightly downmarket (I mean, this is Switzerland, let's not exaggerate) northern edges of the city around Oerlikon and Schwamendingen and the FDP do best on the bourgeois right-bank of the lake in Kreis 7. It catches the evening sun and is therefore a traditionally desirable neighbourhood.

As far as this election goes, all of the incumbents except the AL's Richard Wolff are standing for re-election, the party having selected Walter Angst to seek his replacement. In all likelihood, the worst case scenario for the three left wing parties, standing on a joint ticket, is maintaining the 6:3 split as the FDP are somewhat weakened at the moment. The polling that is around suggests a four way fight for the 8th and 9th seats. Wädi Angst is currently polling in joint 10th , equal to Green Dominik Waser on a voting intention of 36%. The two only just behind incumbent FDP Michael Baumer on 38% and the SP's Simone Brander on 39%. All meaning a certain interest as to the two final seats with the other 7 incuments all looking safe.

In the Gemeinderat election, expect GLP and Green gains consistent with what has gone on everywhere else, even if there are some local specifities. As mentioned, the FDP are going to the election in a fairly weakened state, lacking a clear line between the progressive orientation of the GLP and the SVP's conservative one. For example the FDP wound up supporting anti-carbon measures in the last parliament, as well as opposing the "City Card" introduced to open access to certain public services to undocumented migrants, which all looks confused overall. The SP also stand to lose a chunk of its support to the GLP, particularly EU motivated, but that is national politics.

Likewise, for the SVP it will be an interesting test of their recent "anti-city" rhetoric in the most urban of Swiss cities ("the only real city in Switzerland" as is often repeated). Over the last parliament, they have vocally opposed the left-wing majorities ecologist bent, for instance the introduction of 30km/h speed limits or reducing the number of parking spaces available in the city - as well as reacting against the various social projects, and the "city card" and all of that. Measures that tend to generate outrage in the suburbs but be fairly popular inside the city limits themselves. All that leads to some odd messaging from the SVP - as in, why vote for a party whose principal selling point these days is how much they hate you? Plus they have some issues with personnel etc... that all combine to make the outlook not so positive in February.

Overall the left could gain, depending on how much the Greens can compensate for SP losses; but the bourgeois right are very likely to lose with a bigger centrist buffer emerging between both blocks.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #385 on: February 02, 2022, 02:04:56 PM »

Final round of polling from both outlets:

Stamp duty abolition
Tamedia - Yes 35% (+3%); No 60% (+2%)
SRG - Yes 39% (-3%) ; No 53% (+4%)

Media law
Tamedia - Yes 42% (+3%); No 56% (-2%)
SRG - Yes 46% (-2%) ; No 49% (+1%)

Animal experimentation ban
Tamedia - Yes 18% (-9%); No 80% (+9%)
SRG - Yes 26% (-19%) ; No 68% (+20%)

Tobacco advertising ban
Tamedia - Yes 60% (-2%); No 39% (+3%)
SRG - Yes 63% (-10%) ; No 35% (10%)

Big linguistic divide on the media support package. Overall it and the tobacco advert ban seem to the two where there is some degree of suspense, a battle against the Ständemehr in the latter case - as it probably does take around about 55% for a left-wing initiative to get over that hurdle.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #386 on: February 13, 2022, 10:18:57 AM »

Almost full referendum results, with just one district of Zürich to come - where there are still ongoing with the communal election:

Animal testing ban
Yes  - 20,9%
No - 79,1%

Media support law
Yes - 45,4%
No  - 54,6%

Stamp duty abolition
Yes - 37,3%
No - 62,7%

Tobacco advertising ban
Yes - 56,6%
No - 43,4%

Tages-Anzeiger have results by canton easily visible here and RTS has ones by commune here

The tobacco advertising ban clears the Ständemehr by 14-9 (and quite a pronounced Röstigraben), only rejected in the conservative eastern and central Switzerland heartlands, and becomes the third popular initative (second left wing one) to be accepted in 12 months. At the municipal level, rather surprisingly higher levels of support in the working class communes of greater Geneva and Zürich than in the wealthier ones.

The Stamp Duty abolition also marking another rejection of a proposed tax cut. Hopefully this time the message goes loud and clear to the authorities that there is no support for cutting taxes on the rich and it is about time they start focussing on actual issues rather than handing out presents to friends. Every canton bar the tax haven that is Zug rejected it, with a clear class pattern to the vote. Support for the law was restricted to the millionaire playground communes on Lake Geneva and Lake Zürich, as well as in low tax Schwyz and Zug, with near unanimous rejection everywhere else.

The animal testing ban gets universal rejection while the media support packet has a big linguistic divude - support in French Switzerland, but rejected elsewhere (with the exception of very rural Uri, where the argument in favour of supporting local newspapers seemingly landed better than elsewhere).
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parochial boy
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« Reply #387 on: March 20, 2022, 01:26:57 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2022, 01:33:53 PM by parochial boy »

Cantonal elections in Vaud today, abysmal turnout, but otherwise - well - inconclusive.

In the Conseil d'État race, the left are trying to maintain their governing majority, but took a bit of a hit today. In particular incumbent Cesla Amarelle finishing out of the top 7 owing to a bunch of scandals that came out in the last week. PLR Christelle Luisier is elected in the first round, but the other 6 spots will go to a second round, with a PLR-UDC v PS-Green fight for the two last spots. Today fell to the advantage of the right, but the left might be favoured as you would expect the multitude of far left candidates to do the honourable in the second round. All depends on how the PVL voters split

Results
1. Christelle Luisier (PLR) - 50.8% (elected)
2. Isabelle Moret (PLR) - 47.3% (big profile as she is the current president of the Conseil National)
3. Frédéric Borloz (PLR) - 47.1%
4. Nuria Gorrite (PS) - 46.7%
5. Rebecca Ruiz (PS) - 45.9%
6. Michael Buffat (UDC) - 39.8%
7. Valérie Dittli (the Centre) - 39.8%
---
8. Cesla Amarelle (PS) - 39.4%
9. Vassilis Venizelos (Greens) - 37.7%
10th, 11th and 13th fo the the three PVL candidates, all on around 8-9%
12 to Toto Morand, a local business man (trendy shoe shops) and his "Partie de Rien" who got 8%
14th to 19th go the 6 far left (POP and Ensemble à Gauche candidates) who all got between 4 and 7% and there where another 7 candidates getting whatever

In the Grand Conseil meanwhile a very slight rebalance in favour of the left. Notably good results for the far left, the Greens gaining a bit and the PS potentially not losing as badly as feared. Percentages are approximate given the various alliances and stuff.

PVL still surging and picking up votes from everywhere

PLR - 50 seats (+1) // 29.4% (-3.7%)
PS - 32 seats (-5) // 21.1% (-2.3%)
Greens - 25 seats (+4) // 15.8% (+2.0%)
UDC (inc UDF) - 23 seats (-2) // 13.9% (-1.9%)
PVL - 10 seats (+6) // 8%*
POP (Communists) - 4 seats (nc) // 3.9% (+1.1%)
The Centre (inc allies - 3 seats (-1) // 3% give or take*
Décroissance-Alternatives (eco-left/Trots, big support base around the Neslé home town of Vevey) - 2 seats (+1) // 0.9% (+0.1%)
Solidarity and Ecology (also degrowth fans from the relatively downmarket industrial town of Yverdon) -1 seat (+1) // 0.8% (new party)

* The Centre (old PDC) and PVL stood together last time (along with the PEV; UDF and now defunct PBD). They got a combined 9.5% in 2018 compared to a joint 11.6% now. Safe to say that gain is entirely made up of GreenLiberal support.

PLR doing well out of the electoral system, but surprisingly badly in the popular vote. UDC doing, well, much worse than I expected. PS not losing as badly as they have elsewhere (with concurrently fairly tepid Green gains) and an overall picture that leaves the balance of power in hands of the centrist parties. The overall picture then basically being a continuation of the trends of the last year or two - stagnation on both the left and right with the GreenLiberals being the only party who can really claim to be happy with their form at the moment.

Results and Map here
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« Reply #388 on: March 22, 2022, 11:04:16 AM »

I love how Ticino (plus Italian parts of Grigioni) was by far the best place for the animal testing ban, something like ten points more in favour of it than anywhere else. It feels so random... and therefore, very Ticino.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #389 on: March 27, 2022, 12:58:52 PM »

Results from the cantonal election in Bern today - here is the executive council, I can't be bothered to do the %s but essentially it is unchanged in its composition, all 6 incumbents re-elected with  Astrid Bärtschi-Mosimann a like for like replacement of outgoing Centre (ex-BDP) minister Beatrice Simon.



"Debout" are covid-sceptics; and ES are the "entente socialiste", a join pro-Jura separatist and pro-Bern list in the Jura Bernois

Meanwhile in the Grand Conseil, overall GreenLiberals continue their rise while the PS and PLR continue to suffer:

(scores copied from Watson, so could vary from other sources as there are lots of ways of calculating them/depends on what you make of alliances)

UDC/SVP - 25.4% (-1,6%) // 45 seats (-1)
PS/SP - 19,7% (-3,6%) // 32 seats (-6)
Greens - 12,5% (+2,6%) // 19 seats (+5)
PLR/FDP - 11,2% (-0,5%) // 18 seats (-2)
Green Liberals - 9,9% (+3,0%) // 16 seats (+5)
The Centre 7,6% (-2,2%) // 12 seats (-1)
EVP - 5,5% (-0,6%) // 9 seats (-1)
EDU - 3,7% (nc) // 6 seats (+1)
Alternative Linke - 0,7% (+0,2%) // 1 seat (NC)
PSA (pro-Jura separatists, technically the Jura Bernois wing of the Jura Socialist Party) - 0,2% (-0,4%) // 1 seat (-1)
Entente Socialiste - 0,2% (+0,2%) // 1 seat (+1)

Overall forces:

Left (PS, Greens, AL, PSA and ES) - 33,3% (-1,0%) // 54 seats (-1)
Centre (EVP, the Centre, GLP) - 23% (+0,1%) // 37 seats (+3)
Right (PLR, UDC, EDU) - 40,3% (-2,1%) // 69 seats (-2)

Overall, the decent result in the cities of Bern, Bienne and Thun save the left's blushes. The UDC result, well, surprising they lost actually as the merger/take over of the BDP into the Christian Democrats probably would have been expected to send a few of the BDP's electorate old voters back to the old mother party.

Speaking of the UDC, they've been having an interesting few weeks with this whole Ukraine conflict.

First they passionately opposed sanctions against Russia, in the name of neutrality.

Then Thomas Aeschi, a party bigwig, caused a storm by announcing the priority was to ensure that any Nigerians or Iraqis who might happen to have Ukrainian nationality were kept out of the country in order to ensure that they don't rape anybody.

And then finally the SVP Zug finance minister was unable to undersand why his canton used by Russian oligarchs to hide their billions might be a little bit of a problem right now (or ever, infact)

Ah the UDC - keeping up the patriotic Swiss tradition of profiteering from wars of aggresion around the world.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #390 on: April 01, 2022, 06:21:39 AM »
« Edited: April 01, 2022, 06:40:46 AM by parochial boy »

Three referendums on the agenda for the 15th of May. All referendums this time.

Transplant law - would move Switzerland from a opt-in to opt-our system for organ donations. As in, everybody would be presumed as having consented to be an organ donator unless they explicitely opt out.

Referendum on the financing of Frontex - A law that would increase Switzerland's contributions to the EU's Frontex border control operation from 24 to 61 million francs per year. This is highlighted as being important to ensure Switzerland's continued membership of Schengen, and opposed by migrant support organisations and the left

Law on Cineme (ie 'Netflix' law) - would require streaming platforms to invest 4% of their Switzerland revenue in Swiss productions. Law being opposed by the young PLR, who hate the idea of Switzerland having it's own cultural output or something

On that note - the first polling from GFS.Bern is out:

Transplantation law: Yes 63% - No 34%

Frontex contributions: Yes 63% - No 29%

Netflix law: Yes 59% - No 32%

So far, so low stakes, although the Frontex cobtributions vote did create a minor controversy this week when Operation Libero (progessive anti-UDC campaign group) came out is support of the law, which was very deeply criticised by left, citing their hypocrisy in claiming to support an open and migrant friendly Switzerland while also supporting Frontex. In particular what stuck in the throat of many on the left was Libero's claim to support Frontex in "favour of human rights", when Frontex has been deeply criticised over its failings on precisely that in the past.

It's not really surprising Libero would support the law really, as they basically a pro-EU group more than anything. Although having said that, the decision was apparently hotly contested and split over what was more important between migrants' rights and not endangering Switzerland's Schengen membership. A bit of hot air though really, as the Swiss are supportive of Schengen and, even despite Ukraine, the rights of migrants and asylum seekers are not a majority winning topic - so the law will quite comfortably pass in whatever case.
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« Reply #391 on: April 22, 2022, 12:40:51 PM »

Three referendums on the agenda for the 15th of May. All referendums this time.

Transplant law - would move Switzerland from a opt-in to opt-our system for organ donations. As in, everybody would be presumed as having consented to be an organ donator unless they explicitely opt out.
Okay, I have to ask, is there much of a campaign against this one, and if so, what's it like?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #392 on: April 22, 2022, 02:42:41 PM »

Three referendums on the agenda for the 15th of May. All referendums this time.

Transplant law - would move Switzerland from a opt-in to opt-our system for organ donations. As in, everybody would be presumed as having consented to be an organ donator unless they explicitely opt out.
Okay, I have to ask, is there much of a campaign against this one, and if so, what's it like?

There's not much of a campaign for any of them at all so far to be honest. I've seen a bit of stuff about the other two votes, but virtually nothing about this one. I think overall there is a degree of referendum fatigue after the series of quite emotional votes last year, and the fact that none of these ones are particularly exciting.

The UDC and the two Protestant parties are against it though. Because they think only explicit consent is legitimate for any medical procedures. Also they are apparently worried that precarised populations, in particular migrants who might not speak any of the official languages and not be able to understand the law, won't be able to access the right information about this. Which is a bit of an eyebrow raising argument when you consider who it is that is making it.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #393 on: May 03, 2022, 09:48:58 AM »
« Edited: May 03, 2022, 11:29:49 AM by parochial boy »

Some news from the sticks - Glarus held its Landsgemeinde* on Sunday. Not in itself remarkable, but what was surprising were the joint decisions to include an amendment to the cantonal constitution to require reducing  CO2 emissions and banning cars in parts of the canton on Sunday. This joins last years decision to ban oil and gas heating and earlier decisions such as that to reduce the voting age to 16. The point being that Glarus is not a progressive canton, and voted for instance well to the right of the country as a whole on the various referendums of last year; which makes its Landsgemeinde's repeated progressive decisions rather eyebrow raising.

Seemingly there are a few reasons for this. In part is that participation in the thing basically requires standing in Glarus town square for five hours listening to debates and voting. As in, you're not going to do that without being fairly politically motivated to begin with. And older, less mobile types who tend to be very conservative in Switzerland don't really go and do that. And obviously crap weather can have an enormous impact. Forget reports on how the weather impacts voter turnout in a normal election, do you want to stand outside in the driving rain for 5 hours to vote on whether or not to take out a small load to fund the nursery school in a village that you don't live in?

As it turns out, the weather was fine on Sunday, not wonderful, but fine; which in turn leads to certain inconsistent groups of participants - notably women and young people, who would tend to bend things to the left overall.

Perhaps the bigger point though is that, well, it's not a secret ballot. Everybody can see how you can vote, which creates a certain social desirability bias that tends to work in favour of progressive politics. Although even this is a simplification because Appenzells' Landsgemeinde isn't at all progressive, you know, it is the assembly that kept of voting against women's suffrage into the 1990s - quite a contrast to Glarus - so the "social desirability" bias tends to go in the other direction there.

In part that is because Glarus still is overall to the left of Appenzell, the former being an industrial stronghold and the other being very agricultural and catholic; but the Glarus Landsgemeinde also functions differently. In putting people together to present, discuss and debate issues, they suddenly find themselves outside of their bubbles where they have to engage with the issues that are presented with them and with people who with a wholly different perspective. Alongside the possibility to amend propositions this all tends to make the assembly pretty good at finding compromises capable of winning a majority in favour of quite progressive legislation, even in a society that really isn't

Anyway, conclusion - should everywhere have a Landsgemeinde? No absolutely not, making decisions without a secret ballot would have appalling anti-democratic consequences. Are there any lessons we could stand to learn from the exercise? Well, probably, yes.

*when they all gather in the town square to vote on various traditions. Once upon a time a regular form of direct democracy used across the country but has - for obvious reasons - died out almost everywhere expect in Glarus and Appenzell-Innerrhoden where it survives most principally to function as a tourist attraction
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #394 on: May 03, 2022, 11:24:37 AM »

Some news from the sticks - Glarus held its Landsgemeinde* on Sunday. Not in itself remarkable, but what was surprising were the joint decisions to include an amendment to the cantonal constitution to require CO2 emissions and banning cars in parts of the canton on Sunday. This join last years decision to ban oil and gas heating and earlier decisions such as that to reduce the voting age to 16. The point being that Glarus is not a progressive canton, and voted for instance well to the right of the country as a whole last year; which makes its Landsgemeinde's repeated progressive decisions rather eyebrow raising.

Seemingly there are a few reasons for this. In part is that participation in the thing basically requires standing in Glarus town square for five hours listening to debates and voting. As in, you're not going to do that without being fairly politically motivated to begin with. And older, less mobile types who tend to be very conservative in Switzerland don't really go and do that. And obviously crap weather can have an enormous impact. Forget reports on how the weather impacts voter turnout in a normal election, do you want to stand outside in the driving rain for 5 hours to vote on whether or not to take out a small load to fund the nursery school in a village that you don't live in?

As it turns out, the weather was fine on Sunday, not wonderful, but fine; which in turn leads to certain inconsistent groups of participants - notably women and young people, who would tend to bend things to the left overall.

Perhaps the bigger point though is that, well, it's not a secret ballot. Everybody can see how you can vote, which creates a certain social desirability bias that tends to work in favour of progressive politics. Although even this is a simplification because Appenzells' Landsgemeinde isn't at all progressive, you know, it is the assembly that kept of voting against women's suffrage into the 1990s - quite a contrast to Glarus - so the "social desirability" bias tends to go in the other direction there.

In part that is because Glarus still is overall to the left of Appenzell, the former being an industrial stronghold and the other being very agricultural and catholic; but the Glarus Landsgemeinde also functions differently. In putting people together to present, discuss and debate issues, they suddenly find themselves outside of their bubbles where they have to engage with the issues that are presented with them and with people who with a wholly different perspective. Alongside the possibility to amend propositions this all tends to make the assembly pretty good at finding compromises capable of winning a majority in favour of quite progressive legislation, even in a society that really isn't

Anyway, conclusion - should everywhere have a Landsgemeinde? No absolutely not, making decisions without a secret ballot would have appalling anti-democratic consequences. Are there any lessons we could stand to learn from the exercise? Well, probably, yes.

*when they all gather in the town square to vote on various traditions. Once upon a time a regular form of direct democracy used across the country but has - for obvious reasons - died out almost everywhere expect in Glarus and Appenzell-Innerrhoden where it survives most principally to function as a tourist attraction

The Landsgemeinden are naturally absolutely fascinating to me, and your post did a great job of illuminating the intricacies behind them. It also drives home how small these cantons (with their extensive federal powers!) are that the exercise is still possible. One question I have is do these two cantons have ‘regular’ legislatures, and if so, what is their relation to the Landsgemeinde? What precisely are the powers of the latter?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #395 on: May 03, 2022, 02:39:46 PM »

The Landsgemeinden are naturally absolutely fascinating to me, and your post did a great job of illuminating the intricacies behind them. It also drives home how small these cantons (with their extensive federal powers!) are that the exercise is still possible. One question I have is do these two cantons have ‘regular’ legislatures, and if so, what is their relation to the Landsgemeinde? What precisely are the powers of the latter?

Thanks! They do both have regular legislatures (and executives though). At the end of the day, even in these two cases the day to day management, things like budgeting decision and resource allocation is just too impractible to be done by the Landsgemeinde; or just not possible to wait for a year when it comes to making quick decision, eg with Covid measures over the last couple of year.

On the whole, the sorts of measures that get voted on at the Landsgemeinde don't seem too wholly different to what you get on various cantonal referendum ballots. For instance just looking at what they did vote on, lots of things are basically the same or very similar to what has been voted on in Zürich over the last couple of years or so - or in the case of the CO2 constitutional amendement - stuff that is on the ballot for this month. So overally, they don't seem to get that much more into real direct management, but in Glarus's case the possibility to debate live or to propose and vote on amenmdents to projects does still give them a bigger practical input to how things work in the rest of the country. So they still are real, practical instruments - way more than just folkloric rituals, even if not quite the same in practice as an actual elected legislature.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #396 on: May 08, 2022, 05:16:47 PM »

Back to the important stuff - this coming 4th of June the 2,3 million members (nearly 40% of the adult population) of the Migros co-operatives have been called to vote on the epochal and highly controversial question "should alcoholic drinks be made available for sale in Migros supermarkets?"

Migros, for reference, is a supermarket chain and one of the largest retailers and the single largest employer in the country; but is also set up as a co-operative owned by the 2,3 million members. But to the point, ever since it's early days in the 1920s and under the influence of its founder Gottliieb Duttweiler (who also set up his own political party, the Social-Liberal Ring of Independents it has always refused to sell alcoholic drinks or tobacco. Which was not as people often claim, out of any weirdo religious convictions, Duttweiler himself was apparently a bit of a soak, just one who was "concerned" about the levels of alcoholism among the 1920s Swiss. Anyway this policy is in contrast to its rival Coop, but also in contrast to:

 - the Denner supermarkets
 - Migrol petrol stations
 - Migrolino convenience stores
 - Globus department store
 - Molinos pizzeria chain
 - Migros online shop

which all belong to the co-operative and perfectly happily sell alcohol to all who want it. Denner in particular is famous for having its outlets generally literally round the corner from Migros.

Anyway, because the direction of the stores want to modernise its image sell profitable alcoholic drinks, they kicked off the process of changing the co-operative's statutes to allow it to sell alcohol - the next step being a vote requiring a two-thirds majority of the membership.

And because we vote on everything in this country - this has also predictably been polled. And sadly (or not) the proposition looks doomed to failure. Only 38% in favour to 58% against according to Tamedia, with rejection from all across society, albeit with higher support among French speakers and younger people. No difference between city and countryside dwellers though, proving wrong all of those pundits proclaiming the inevitable and ever increasing polarisation between urban and rural areas.

Anyway, "who even cares?" you ask. Well, even if there are apparently some votes next week, this is the one that has generated the most attention and will have the most profound change in the day to day lives of people in this country. Will I be able to be able to buy a six pack of Chopfab at the same time as my cartons of Migros brad Ice Tea in the near future? Or will I continue to still only do it when I go to the Coop to buy toothpaste and bin bags because you have to get them from the till and the queue is shorter there and Migros only sell their weird tasting own brand toothpaste anyway?
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« Reply #397 on: May 16, 2022, 12:16:46 AM »

Swiss voters voted to approve making everyone an organ donor by default in a referendum yesterday.

Quote
Switzerland has voted to boost the availability of transplant organs by making everyone a potential donor after death unless they have expressly objected.

The legal change was approved by 60% of voters in a referendum. Under the existing laws, transplants are only possible if the deceased person consented while alive.

Their wishes are often unknown, and in such cases the decision is left up to relatives who in most cases opt against organ donation.

....

In a bid to reduce the backlog, the government and parliament wanted to change the law to a “presumed consent” model, something already adopted in a number of other European countries.

According to that system, people who do not wish to become an organ donor after death must explicitly say so.

Those who have not made their wishes clear would be assumed to be in favour. However, relatives would still be able to refuse if they know or suspect that the person concerned would have chosen not to donate an organ. In cases where no relatives can be contacted, no organs may be removed.

The rules would only apply to people aged 16 and over.

The medical conditions for donation remain the same: only people who die in a hospital intensive care unit can donate their organs, and two doctors must confirm the death.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #398 on: May 16, 2022, 03:40:05 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2022, 04:09:43 PM by parochial boy »

All three passed in the end, although most people had already forgotten what they had voted on by the time the polls closed. Results by commune here . Mad linguistic divide on the organ donation, with the "deeply catholic" Valais voting way, way more in favour than even the pretty secular german speaking parts of the plateau. Not sure why to be honest.

Netflix also had a pretty big linguistic divide, but the reasons for that are more obvious.

In the local stuff, Zürich city also voted to introduce a "city card" as in an identity card that would give holders access to the city's various public services. The explicit intention of this being that the card would be available to undocumented migrants who would now have access to these services as well as a form of documentation that would protect them from arrest and deportation. Not perfect, but an enormous step forward for an otherwise intensely precarised population.

Glarus and Graubünden also elected they're cantonal parliaments. Which I completely forget about.

 Results in Glarus:

SVP - 30.3% (+3.3%) // 18 seats (+2)
Die Mitte - 18.6% (-5.2%) // 12 seats (-2)
FDP - 18.1% (+0.5%) // 11 seats (nc)
Greens - 13.1% (+1.6%) // 8 seats (+1)
PS - 12.5% (-0.4%) // 8 seats (nc)
GLP - 7.0% ((-0.1%) // 3 seats (-1)

The SVP wins and Mitte catastrophe come from the BDP-PDC merger, clearly a number of former BDP voters (who had 8 of the two's previous 14 seats), returning to the spiritual home.

Grabünden
Mitte - 28,0% // 34 seats (-19)
PS - 22,7% // 27 seats (+8)
FDP - 22,0% // 27 seats (-9)
SVP - 21,1% // 25 seats (+16)
GLP - 6,1 % // 7 seats (+4)

Mitte's heavy losses against the combined PBD-PDC score last time, the former also being a cantonal force.

Heavy note of caution with the seat changes overall though - as the canton moved from it's old first 'x' past the post (ie the 'x' number of candidates with the most votes depending on the number of seats the District was entitled to) to a simply PR by District. So the surge of the two pole parties is not quite a stark as it seemed. The PS taking second position did take a few people by surprise though.

Overall, the Socialists also clamber away from bottom position in the "overall seats lost in cantonal parliaments since 2019" battle they are engaged in with the Centre and PLR. The PS are down 38, the
PLR down 39 and Centre down 40. The two winners up to now are the Greens and GreenLiberals. Up 51 and 48 respectively. 2023 gearing up to be quite a hit to the Federal Councils it seems.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #399 on: June 02, 2022, 07:44:39 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2022, 07:47:42 AM by parochial boy »

Healthcare is back on top of the agenda this week, with a spate of fortuitously timed stories all falling together at once.

First of all, not confirmed yet, but we have been warned up a potential rise of up to 10% in health insurance premiums for 2023, which compares rather unfavourably with inflation that is running at around 2-3% at the moment, and the stable prices over the last two years. Reason for this is basically that the government took on the full costs of the pandemic, rather relaxing pressure on the insurers at a time where non-Covid hospital care was obviously somewhat below normal levels. Combined with pressure for the insurers to dig into the reserves, this allowed prices to remain steady for the course of the pandemic. However, now that hospital care is back to normal the costs are back to being theoretically covered by the insures and the lobby has succesfully argued for a cost rise.

Not that this has gone unnoticed of course - in fact one of the the most revealing aspects of the last week being that the Federal Council has finally recognised that the system as it exists is no longer sustainable. Health Minister Alain Berset even going as far as to criticise the "cartel of silence", or the collective inaction between insurers, hospitals and doctors who all always pass the buck for costs on to each other and look the other way when one of the others comes under pressure to reform.

At the same time - two popular initiatives have hit parliament, both seeking to control healthcare costs, and which will likely be voted on in 2023/4. The first is the Centre's (old CVP/PDC) proposition to "control health care costs", which in sum was to restrict price rises to the level of salary/pension rises through a variety of mechanisms. The initiative was heftily rejected in parliament - the right because, well, guess; and the left because they saw it as a functionless paper tiger. However the that even a centre-right party is clamouring to reform the system does show the rumbling dissatisfaction that exists. More optimistically, the counter-project did make it through parliament. A rather more proactive proposal to require the Federal Council to review and set "Price and quality objectives" for the sector that was passed by a broad left + Centre + Green-Liberal alliance. This, of course, is totally unacceptable to the PLR/SVP so odds are it will go to a referendum as well.

Also about to go through parliament is the PS's own proposal. This would be to "Limit healthcare costs to 10% of income", essentially by requiring the cantons to up their subsidies in order that no-one be unduly stung by healthcare costs. Apparently a counter-project is being elaborated to this one two, but overall, even if slightly more concrete than the Centre's proposal it suffers from the same concern that it doesn't actually address the structural reasons for the excessive costs.

Anyway, tl;dr health insurance costs are making people unhappy and there will in all likelihood be 2/3/4 referendums on the topic in the next two or so years.

In other news - the PS officially announced that they want Switzerland to join the EU. Which is... strange seeing as part of the reason the framework agreement collapsed was opposition to the EU's economic liberalism within the party's ranks. However, the PS are frightened of their more middle class europhile voters deserting on mass to the Green Liberals; therefore.... this. Despite the fact it has an approximately zero chance of happening. It's kind of hard to convince myself that this was a very good idea, or that the leadership are exactly on top of their game at the moment.

Also - votes in September to come, two rather sensitive ones on a pensions and a tax reform; and one on pigs. But I don't want to think about the autumn yet, so haven't bothered to look any further than that.
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